Update/Mise à jour:
10:47 AM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:05 AM 06/05/2005
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Thunder Bay-Superior North
Thunder Bay-Superior-Nord

Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Denis A. Carrière
Joe Comuzzi
Bruce Hyer
Dawn Kannegiesser
Bev Sarafin

Hon. Joe Comuzzi

2004 Result/Résultats:
Joe Comuzzi
Bruce Hyer
Bev Sarafin
Carl Rose
Denis A. Carrière

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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13 01 06
I cannot see why Bruce Hyer would win this riding after what has been in the news in the last couple of days. First, Mr. Hyer pulled a publicity stunt regarding the softwood lumber debate that showed he had no knowledge of the problem at hand. Bruce indicated in the media that he feels this money should go to the Government and not the companies who paid the money. These companies need the money to re-invest into their plants and keep the jobs in Northern Ontario. Without it, thousands of jobs will be lost. Then Bruce said he was having "fun" on this issue...thousands of jobs at risk is not "fun".
12 01 06 CC
I believe that the NDP will make huge gains in this riding. They are a safe bet for those x-Liberals who are looking to change their vote without fear of putting the conservatives in office instead. Joe Commuzi, a long time Liberal has alienated many in the riding with his rather conservative stance on the marriage question. I do not believe that this riding agrees with Mr.Commuzi`s position on this matter. Furthermore he resigned from his cabinet post over this matter. This post belonged not to him, but to the people of Thunder Bay-Superior North. I believe that a small swing of former Liberal supportrs will put the NDP into this seat. This long time Liberal has certainly changed his vote.
03 01 06 Aric H
With the Liberals going down in Ontario at the moment, the NDP could move up from 2nd place to take this riding, but they probably aren't there just yet. Comuzzi has the name recognition and is not personally connected to any Liberal scandal. Yes he is Italian, although being Italian myself I don't mind saying that he's not one of my favourite Italian MP's.
01 01 06 G. Coombs
Commuzzi should win this seat again easily. He may not be as popular with younger voters, but this is an aging district and with a heavy Italian population that identify with his politics. While he likely alienated some voters over the same-sex marriage issue, he also won a lot of fans by resigning his cabinet post and showing his integrity as a representative for his constituents above all else. He's held the seat for 17 years, and he likely will until he retires.
23 12 05 A.S.
On paper, this is the "safe Liberal" half of Thunder Bay--but keep in mind that the NDP did less than half a point lower here than next door in '04; so it's foolish to write them off altogether, as the ghost of C.D. Howe will tell you. On the other hand, the chances of a left-field Tory breakthrough here are negligible compared to Kenora or TBRR; too much resource-town hinterland, not enough Manitoba/Minnesota-ness. Besides, Joe Comuzzi pretty well covered a lot of the reasons-to-vote-Tory base by committing principled cabinet harakiri on the same-sex issue--maybe he isn't quite the Paul Steckle of the North, but he's certainly twinkling in his twilight. Watch what happens when he retires, though; he might turn out to be the Herb Gray of the North, instead...
12 12 05 Blair Niblett
In references to some of the previous posts, I'm not sure it's fair to say that Joe Commuzi chose to vote against SSM because his constituents (some or all) wanted it that way. The town hall meeting he held was quite heated and both sides on the issue were well represented. Many of those who spoke against the bill asked Joe to vote with his party in order to save his cabinet seat, which many NWO'ers worked hard to obtain for him. As an economically delicate region, people in NWO feel better represented when their MP sits at the cabinet table. Joe scoffed at the work that went into seeing that he held the FEDNOR portfolio, and voters may not forget that on election day. I certainly won't.
04 12 05 CBP
Joe will win again. Not only will his stance on SSM be a positive for him (voting with the wishes of most of those in his riding), he would appear to have achieved a fair amount of things for the riding since the last election. Joe seems to be getting very positive media coverage regarding the federal forestry package (which some reports say he was key in obtaining the necessary loan support for the softwood producers and thus saving hundreds if not thousands of jobs in the sawmills) and appears to have had some other successes as well (ie: funding for new med. school, etc.).
The closest other candidate in this race is Bruce Hyer who is an environmentalist and seems to be out of touch with the blue collar workers in Thunder Bay and area and with his stance on SSM. Mr. Hyer appears like he would prefer environmental protections over saving jobs.
I think the result of this election will result in Joe Comuzzi picking up a similar amount of votes (if not slightly more due to SSM) than the last election with Bruce Hyer obtaining about the same or slightly less.
27 09 05 James Bowie
Joe will run again. He is everyone's best friend. The city loves him. He's been MP since '88.
The second finishing candidate has no chance. He admits to being a Liberal, and that he can't win a Liberal nomination, so he runs for the NDP.
Scott Reid, the CPC critic for FEDNOR, came to TBay and endorsed Comuzzi. The Opposition gave him a standing ovation for his position on c-38, which has earned him multi-party support.
Joe has been in Cabinet, and he is likely to be shuffled back in before any election is called. He's personable. He's well liked, and he campaigns hard. His election team is the best in the area, and his ability to fundraise far outstips his opponents.
I predict Joe Comuzzi in TBSN.
14 07 05 Bear and Ape
Big question is; will Comuzzi be running again in the next election. He's getting a little long in the tooth and he quit his cabinet seat to vote against SSM (and with the wishes of his constituents). Until this is answered no one can really make much of a prediction. NDP and even the Torys can take it with the right candidate (sans Comuzzi though!).
17 05 05 A. Jantunen
I would lean toward Boshcoff holding on; however, if the NDP can find a strong candidate with more profile and political experience than Rafferty, they've got a decent chance. Probably contrary to his expectations, Boshcoff was shut out of Cabinet and other postings of note. There may also be lingering ill-feeling toward him after a fierce nomination battle last year against Don Patterson, who is well-respected for his and his family's contributions to the community's economic and social well-being. On a more general level, the local economy has suffered badly during the last decade, and some people may want to teach the Liberals a lesson for ignoring Northwestern Ontario (particularly with the job losses at Bombardier, which has always been controlled by the feds to a large, if indirect, extent). With the sponsorship scandal, and the NDP's rise in profile with the budget deal and being the only party observing some level of civility in Parliament, it should be a close race.
In response to the post about the strong Alliance showing in 2000, note that that was due mainly to the gun registry, which is much less of an issue now. The Conservatives will run some local businessman as they always do, and lose the large working class vote, again as they always do.
07 05 05 GM
People in this riding first of all vote for Comuzzi, which shows how strong the Italian vote is here. Secondly, they'll vote Liberal.
In the past 40 years, there's been one NDP blip in Ernie Epp versus 17 years of Comuzzi, 15 years of Rob Andras, and Jack Masters in between.
(Note: the last time that the Conservatives won this riding was 1930)
02 05 05 Craig
Too early to tell what will happen. Should Joe Comuzzi vote in favour of gay marriage despite the heavy opposition and promises to keep his cabinet seat, he's toast. That seems to be what will happen, and that would send a lot of the so-cons to the Conservatives. However, the NDP are stronger here and could come up the middle. Should Comuzzi vote against and be removed from cabinet, he should narrowly hold on. Predicted results: (Comuzzi votes for C-38) NDP 35%, CPC 31%, LIB 26%, GRN 7% (Comuzzi votes against C-38) LIB 37%, NDP 33%, CPC 22%, GRN 7%.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Northern Ontario unlike areas further South often decides more based on local candidate as opposed to strictly party. Joe Commuzzi is very popular and even his uncertain stance on same-sex marriage likely won't hurt him. Unless he decides not to run, the liberals should hold this. If he drops out, then the NDP may have a shot at picking this one up. This is probably too far North for the Conservatives, so they should focus on ridings like Parry Sound-Muskoka or Nippissing-Timiskaming where they may have a chance at winning.

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