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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Thom Chapman
Olivia Chow
Sam Goldstein
Progressive Canadian
Asif Hossain
Tony Ianno
Nick Lin
Canadian Action
John Riddell

Hon. Tony Ianno

2004 Result/Résultats:
Tony Ianno
Olivia Chow
David Watters
Mark Viitala
Asif Hossain
Nick Lin
Tristan Alexander Downe-Dewdney
Daniel Knezetic

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 01 06 Ianno's Pension
Tony may just have to start drawing on that GOLD plated Liberal Pension. The wheels are falling off his campaign.
Where was Martin until recently? Knowing that Tony was is trouble....Martin had to make a late campaign election swing through the riding. Nothing came out of Martin's mouth though there were strong rumours of the Port Authority being turned over to the TWRC.
Tony is in such trouble that he had to start drawing on past favors....he was seen door knocking with Art Eggleton (Former MP, Long-time Toronto Mayor.....now Senator)
I didn't realize Senators bothered to knock on doors once they entered the Chamber.
19 01 06 Bug Eyed Pete
There's a lot of political hacks out there who haven't noticed how the make up of this riding has been radically changed by the explosion of condos. The condo owners vote while renters in this riding don't. The Condo owners don't vote NDP, they either vote Liberal or Conservative. Ianno will harvest those condo votes and beat Chow on election night.
19 01 06 PY
Unless my eyes have failed me, I see Bay Street as being in the riding, with Yonge Street as the dividing line.
Secondly, the article in the Globe and Mail is suprisingly thin if one's looking for an out-and-out endorsement of the NDP from the Toronto Board of Trade or even Glen Grunwald personally, because I didn't see it. I do remember that the Street was not impressed with the NDP and how it reshaped the last budget. I doubt very much that sentiment will change, even amongst anyone else at the TBOT.
18 01 06 Chick Wing Charlie
Chow losing the polling stations on the University of Toronto campus really hurt her chances here. The other problem Chow has is Layton has done little to help her win this riding in the last week. Ianno and the Liberals made riding boundaries like this one to help them hold on against the NDP and that's going to happen again. There just isn't enough of a NDP voter base in Trinity Spadina to beat Ianno and there isn't enough of a Conservative base to cut into Ianno's vote total. Toronto stays solid red in this election and that includes this riding.
18 01 06 Carlos Heimer-Neves
here is an article about Bay streets reaction to the NDP
re. the condos. my sister lives in one of those, she says there are a lot of conservatives there that are going to vote against the liberals, not the ndp. i'd say that means if the liberals win it will be by less.
18 01 06 JP
I think Olivia Chow will win this time because of the falling Liberal fortunes in this riding. She is also having her campaign team aggressively canvas the condos in the south part of the riding near Harbourfront. These representatives are telling everyone 'Olivia is the only candidate who opposes the Toronto Island Airport'. I actually heard them say that to everyone while waiting for the elevator. I had to remind the person that they were telling a lie becuase I do not think there is any possible way the Green Party would support the Toronto Island Airport.
17 01 06 CB
Yeah, Anyone who sees SAC as evidence that the "student vote" will swing this for the NDP is off their rocker. U of T students are apathetic at best when it comes to voting (especially for their student council). The SAC president was elected with like 2000 votes... with about half of that coming from the missisauga campus. (the campus is over 35 000) So, all in all, SAC represents nobody when they speak in this election and they cannot be seen as a significant factor. Moreover I was in residence at St. George for a few years and from what I remember, most students either didn't care or believe the NDP is silly.
17 01 06 Gerard Kennedy
No, not *that* Gerard Kennedy. Just a long-term follower/admirer but first time poster on this website.
In response to PY: Bay Street isn't *in* the riding. That's Bill Graham's turf. Avenue Road/University Avenue is the divide.
Chow is ALL over the western part of the U of T campus- Trinity, University, Innis, New and Woodworth colleges. Remember, last election was held during the U of T summer.
When you also factor in falling Liberal numbers in Ontario (even if NDP isn't really picking them up), seemingly less fear of a Conservative government and the fact that even 2% of Ianno's votes going Tory would be enough to swing the riding, I think it would be a major disappointment if Olivia lost.
If Olivia can't win now, she's not ever going to win.
16 01 06 Who's Socks?
Phillip asked the most important question in this contest in Trinity-Spadina. What will the condo owners and many disgrutled Liberals do on election day. Here's the answer. The condo owners don't like or support Chow and will come out and stategically vote against her by casting their ballots for Ianno. Disgruntled Liberals will come out to vote because of the nasty race between Chow and Ianno. Like it or not, Chow energizes the Liberal vote. Now that you have the answers to these questions, the winner is clear. Ianno by a little more than last time.
16 01 06 University
Monday's SAC (UofT's Student Union) press release stating the Liberal Party is interfering with student voting is a farce. SAC's federal election strategy is being run by two hardcore NDP workers: One is a past president of the UofT NDP and is currently one of only two Ontario NDP Youth Representatives. The other has appeared side-by-side with Olivia Chow on numerous occasions and currently has a Paul Summerville (NDP-St. Paul's) sign on his own lawn. SAC does not represent the views of most UofT students.
16 01 06 PY
I haven't heard anything on Bay Street that suggests anyone there is ready to embrace the NDP, so I'm not sure where the poster who suggested that is getting that from. Paul Summerville does not the Street make.
15 01 06 philip
the biggest x-factors are new south-end condo voters and disgruntal liberals. how will they vote and how many of them will just stay home?
ianno is popular with his core support groups (i'm assuming he must be working hard in some neighbourhoods) but it likely won't be enough with the floundering state of his party. chow is in but she'll have to work her butt off to keep it.
13 01 06 Initials only
I predict that Chow will win this riding by 1000-3000 votes. Despite the fact that the local CPC candidate has no chance, the surging conservative vote is going to hurt Ianno. The local Chinese community is unhappy with the Liberals on the head tax apology & compensation issue. Furthermore, recent revelations that tie possible corruption at the Toronto Waterfront Revitalization Initiative to Ianno's riding association are going to be hard to weasel out of at this late stage in the campaign. The local Green candidate is a very young, very inexperienced guy who is not going to garner anything other than a protest votes. Chow's performance in local debates has been solid (despite wishful thinking by other posters here) and it is clear that she has a solid core of supporters who will be especially energized to vote after the extremely close call in 2003.
13 01 06 Frog Mouth
Tony Ianno's campaign has spent the last couple of weeks working the soft Conservative vote here that is up for grabs because Sam Goldstein is a very weak candidate. Grabbing up Conservative votes who want to stop Chow is going to be the difference in a contest like this one. I'll say Tony wins by 300 votes.
13 01 06 Annex Thoughts
I must say that I think this one will go for Chow this time not by much though. It has been a very interesting campaign. In the northern end of the riding this has usually been a soft to high NDP area. The Liberals have had little canvassers around and very few lit drops. This is interesting as it seems Ianno has been concentrating his focus in the southern end of the riding and airport issue is open once again that has left Ianno off guard. The Greens are nowhere to be seen however I would not count these votes as all going the NDP (60% at most 30% Liberal 10% Conservative). Sam Goldstein is running a very good campaign in the southern end of the riding ('the condo area') that will erode some of the Liberal support. In fact I see the Conservatives building on this campaign and becoming quite active in the future.
One thing though turnout was VERY HIGH in the advance polls (Poll 600) the line up was well out the door. I think Olivia will win this election this time. Forget the sign wars or the famous Blog incident. The numbers are there.
13 01 06 JT
I believe Olivia Chow will finally prevail here. Liberals are sinking fast in Ontario. I personally believe that Tony Ianno won largely because people were spooked by Stphen Harper forcing many Dippers to vote Liberal to block him. With that no longer the case Chow claim this seat. Final result NDP-41% LIB-39% CPC-16% GREEN-3% OTHER-1%
13 01 06 Sick of Lies
Well it is about 10 days before the election, and things do not look good for the Liberals. I've had the opprtuntity to view two candidate debates (though I missed Goldhawk Live this evening) and it was quite clear to me who the winner will be in this ward.
Tony, move over to your local councillor. Watching the two debates and the subsequent newspaper articles, Ianno's in big trouble. Tony will lose the vote in the condo's this time around, unlike him winning the ward in this part of the riding.
Get this....Investment bankers on Bay Street are willing to park their traditional Conservative vote to the NDP because they realize that Harpers boy doesn't have a hope in a million years of winning this ward.
A vote for the NDP is really a vote for the Conservatives....one less Fiberal's in parliament. The Bay Street crowd will finally unite Jack& Olivia after two years.
Even Harpers boys realize shutting down the Island Airport will help out property values all along the waterfront. Isn't that what the Cons. are all about?
13 01 06 Try to be objective
Firstly if either candidate manages to take this by over 500 I will be shocked. I have noticed 2 odd things, firstly Ianno is on the news all the time but not in the riding he is in other ridings that is very very very bad for him. Tony is a good campaigner and makes a point of hitting the doors well this time around he cant and that is going to cost him. The next odd thing is not only do I see Chow signs in my neighbourhood but Layton side by side. Now either they are trying to psyche people with the whole husband and wife thing (doubt it will work) or she has seen the numbers and feels she is falling short and is trying to get extra votes by playing up on Jack and if this is the case it does not bode well for her in my mind but who knows the logic behind it.
As I have said before this will be under 500 either way and I would not put 50 cents on either of them to win right now as I think it is currently swinging back and forth between Ianno and Chow.
12 01 05 Student Slacker
I've been here at U ot T long enough to know that we let the lefties run student government because it doesn't matter. Every study I've seen says that U of T students, if they bother to cast a ballot tend to vote for mid to right wing parties, not the NDP. If Chow is counting on U of T students to win this race for her, she's sadly mistaken. Ianno is going to win again by about the same as last time.
12 01 06 GB
The first Trinity-Spadina debate with only four candidates would have to go to Tony Ianno as he fought through a clearly hostile pro-Olivia crowd and still made it out with his head held high. Thom Chapman of Green looked way out of his element. Olivia simply attacked the Liberals and the crowd applauded, nothing new there.
The second debate showed the benefits of having a full slate as all seven candidates were included. Tony did well, Thom Chapman seemed to have recovered from the shell shock of the first debate but Asif Hossain - the unknown element - was the biggest surprise. He was the only candidate that appealed to both conservatives and liberals while playing close to social issues that even NDP supporters enjoyed hearing. The second one was a three-way tie between Tony for hammering Olivia with substance, Thom for his frankness and Asif for style.
11 01 06 DL
The election here is OVER. Chow will win by several thousand votes. The Tories have a very active campaigning and are stealing Liberal votes right and left in the condos. The Green Party is even more non-existent this election than in 2004. Apparently the NDP is hearing of far less strategic voting this time than last time. The nationwide Liberal slide is being felt here like everywhere else and a falling tide sinks all ships. In 2004, I got phone canvassed several times by the Ianno campaign and I got literature in my mailbox. This time NOTHING. NADA. Apparently he has almost no volunteers and resources are being pulled from Trinity-Spadina and moved to suburban Liberal seats under threat from the Tories.
11 01 06 AG
I don't know how this cookie crumbles. It depends how much fear of a conservative majority there is. A couple things on previous posts. First of all, the student vote is probably not going to impact too heavily here. Students, who don't vote in large numbers anyway, like many Canadians will stay home in droves. It doesn't help that many students were in two different ridings during the course of this election and will feel even more isolated from the process. If students do have an impact on this election, it is not because the student council is supporting the New Democrats. Student leaders are often pretty estranged from the people they represent and the SAC at U of T is no exception. Secondly, Toronto is about the only place in the country where the Conservatives have been unable to make a significant impression, I've heard that Conservatives are being urged to vote for Chow to keep Ianno out. So if there is an impact that's where you'll see it.
11 01 06 wb
As one of the "condo dwellers" noted in early posts, I have a couple of comments. The island airport issue is alive and well, and the perception amongst liberal supporters is that Tony Ianno is ignoring popular opinion and backing the special interests of the Harbour Commission. There is NO issue that is hotter in this neck of the woods. It was only a desperate last minute plea from his supporters last campaign that convinced Ianno that this was an issue that could lose him the seat. As soon as it was safe to reverse his position, the island airport expansion quietly resumed. This time around, Olivia has rethought her position that all condo owners are yuppie scum and is personally going door to door shaking hands. The Mike Klander blog is being read by everyone with a large degree of annoyance. Olivia is going to pick up ALOT of Liberal votes out of embarrassment. Everyone that I have spoken with in our building who voted for Ianno last time around, is going NDP. The Tony Ianno pollsters were at our door last night at 10:00 p.m... It appears that he is finally realizing that there is a huge block of voters who are neither Italian or Portugese and cannot be counted on to vote as a block.
08 01 06 MM
Students in UofT residences (should mention that the student government here drips with NDP, and that Jack Layton had a barbacue on the steps of the student gov't offices while all the elected-members of the student body stood around with Jack and felt important.) This means Olivia wins!
07 01 06 Trin Spa
The organizers of the January 8th Harbourfront Debate snubbed 3 of 7 candidates because they are not part of the "big four". In particular 2004 fifth place candidate Asif Hossain of the Progressive Canadian Party was snubbed, which is a shame because he has some very good ideas on his website and he actually ran in Trinity-Spadina last time, unlike the Conservative and Green Party candidates.
I also get the feeling that the very left leaning organizers did this so it would be a 3 on 1 ambush against Tony Ianno and did not want to risk that one of the other 3 candidates may speak in favour of the Federal Port Authority or the bridge to the Island. Although I can not imagine that either the Canadian Action Party or Marxist-Lenninist candidates would speak in favour of the PA or the bridge, but it would have been nice to find out Mr. Hossain's thoughts on the matter. Smaller parties deserve some more respect than this.
06 01 06 DL
Another factor is playing into the NDP's favour here. The Conservative seem to be gaining some ground in Ontario and their big focus on getting tough on crime will probably get them a lot of votes from all those condo-dwellers who went massively Liberal last time. These people don't know Tony Ianno and olivia Chow from a six foot hole in the ground, they vote based on what they see in the national media. I think that that Conservative vote could easily rise by about 5% here and 80% of that will come right out of Ianno's hide.
On top of that the Green party seems to be non-existent this time. In 2004, i got a flyer frm them and saw some signs - this time nothing.
06 01 06 JB
Driving around the riding over the past week or so, I've noticed many signs that were destroyed on both sides, but mostly Ianno's signs though. I even saw mafia and fascist written on some Ianno signs...Pity it has to come to that. I heard Chow may start talking about island airport again...yawn, move on thats a done deal already! Chow and Layton want to be together in Ottawa, but the taxpayers shouldn’t have to flip the bill for that, why should two from the same family have to dip into the public trough...isnt one enough...reminds of me of when they lived in public housing a couple of years back...always talking from one side of their mouth while chewing on taxpayer money from the other side! I think with the condos and that the Liberals are in some trouble nationally, the vote will swing Liberal in this riding again, but by only 1000 again!
06 01 06 Trying to be objective
As I read the comments of people who say that the chow chow racist comments will bring the Chinese out to vote for Olivia I think to myself -how racist is it to think that Chinese only vote for Chinese. Do you really think those who are Chinese or Italian or what have you only vote for their own ethnic group. Bob Wong (Chinese) lost to Rosario Marchese (Italian) in the provincial seat which blows your theory out of the water there guys. People this time are voting either for someone (ie you really like Jack Or Martin or whoever) or against someone (ie Harper) I am surprised to hear daily the number of people who say Harper scares the hell out of them yet cannot give you much of a reason, although it has been observed that he never seems to smile. So my view is that many people will opt for Ianno to stop Harper because the NDP seats will not keep him out it just ensures the Liberals are low enough for him to have a chance. A large number of people I think you will find vote Green and that does not bode well for Olivia as I think Green voters tend to be from her base. I don’t think anyone will vote for Olivia because of Jack or because they want to have them together or because they love her so much. People are driven by more base and negative aspects - "Kick the bastards out" or "Anyone but" so it comes down to are the people more interested in kicking out Martin or stopping Harper. That is the million dollar question and if anyone out there knows the answer you are a better man than I Gunga Din!
THis is way to close to call and it depends on the polls and the hard work of the candidates at this point, under 500 votes is my feeling
04 01 06 Victor A.
As much as I like Olivia, I do not think she will be elected. The controversy around her being called names doesn't help Ianno but it won't be a deciding factor in people's minds either. The campaign in this riding is actually very similar to 2004 and I simply don't see Olivia winning it. The demographics of the riding are quickly changing and the fact that these new high rise condos continue to be built work against her. To Olivia's credit she seems to be spending much more time in the riding this time around, but I doubt it'll be enough given these new condos popping up in the riding. Ianno should win by around 1000 votes again.
02 01 06 quasar
Olivia's got this one in the bag. She just needed those few more votes to take out Ianno, and with the momentum of Liberals slowing down rapidly nationally, Olivia's going to take this one, espeically with the dog comment which is deemed racist by some and certainly the Chinese vote will be out at full force. Looks like Layton and Chow will be the second married couple to have seats simultaneously in parliament.
02 01 06 m
I do agree with John Sewell's theory that the 2200 Green Party votes from 2004 would not have been a 1 for 1 vote for NDP. However, the Green Party in this riding have been caught off guard by the election only nominating a new candidate two weeks into the campaign. This will most certainly result in poorer numbers at the polls than 2004. In such a close race between Ianno and Chow even a third of the 2200 votes would be enough of an impact for the NDP win this riding.
02 01 06 Try to be objective
An interesting fact about T-S no incumbent has ever been turfed. When the riding was vacated by Peter Stollery Dan Heap took it for the NDP and no matter how many times Coutts or Ianno tried the seat stay NDP until he retired. The Seat then went to Ianno who has held it against all challangers since. This is always under 2000 votes and has been like this for 20-25 years and again this time around
The NDP talk about how people last time didn't vote for Olivia because they knew they would not lose her because she had a council seat, I mean other than core NDPers who really has the audacity to think or even say anything so stupid. Most people think politicians are scum and Olivia is viewed the same except for maybe her groupies and that will not decide the seat- count the numbers guys you dont add up into the thousands
As for that moron who made the Chow Chow comment, not to be out done I noticed over the weekend Ianno's signs defaced a couple said "Facist" and one "Facist Mafia".. For the those who think the Mafia worked with the Facist regime in Italy -better go hit the history books they were partisans and not Facist. However, the clear message is a moronic racial comment against Ianno's Italian roots and is everybit as offensive as the Chow Chow comment. If the NDP allow some boneheads to retaliate by this sort of thing it will boomerang on Chow
As for the husband and wife comments posted here, do you really think that voters give a rats ass if Olivia is married to Jack they are going to vote for her either because they believe in NDP ideas or they want to punish the Liberals, other than her family I can't see anyone saying "I think I will vote for Olivia so she can be with her Hubby"
I think the vote will be under 500 and I am leaning towards Ianno at this point, it all depends on the polls and how many doors Chow and Ianno hit in the next few weeks, if you are undecided and you meet one of the two you are more likely to vote for the one you met (Unless of course the candidate manages to offend the hell out of you!)
So my call is -too close to call -but Ianno but a sliver of a hair after the 11 O'clock news
01 01 06 Aric H
Olivia Chow almost won this riding in 2004, and had the election been held several days earlier before the last-minute vote change from the NDP to the Liberals, she would have won by several thousand votes. Add to this that Chow wouldn't have resigned from City Council if she didn't think she could win, that she and Jack Layton are better known than in 2004, that the Liberals are going down in the polls, and that she has just received publicity from the negative dog comment, and it's fairly certain that this riding will go NDP.
01 01 06 love, sydney
Three times the charm for Olivia. Her cause was given a minor boost by the stupid blog pictures that blew up on the Liberal insider Klander, but she was en route to victory through the after-math of gomery and Toronto-area violence. I'm one of those who do think the NDP fiested on the Klander incident -- he really deserved to be slapped upside the head figuratively -- but Jack played it a little too much, which maybe cost him in other places in the province and out west.
31 12 05 The Humble Prophet
With Klander's dog comparison, this one is over. Chow will get sympathy and many Chinese Canadians who may have preferred the Liberals economic policies to those of the NDP may rally behind Chow in wake of the pathetic racist comparisons made by a member of the Ontario wing of the federal Liberal party.
30 12 05 Easter Bunny
You can always count on the NDP to grasp at any straw they can when the ship is going down. Klander's stupid blog may be big news to political hacks but the average voter has no interest in what a nobody thinks of the election.
28 12 05 MH
In the immediate aftermath of 'Klutz' Klander's juvenile comments on his blog, Olivia Chow's chances look better than ever. Yet it still seems too early to try to call this one. Trinity-Spadina is a constituency undergoing change, as the condos at the southern end are filling with people who may feel uncomfortable with the NDP. How this will play out is anyone's guess. Mine is that, in the end, fewer than 1,000 votes will separate Ms Chow and Mr Ianno, and although I'm leaning towards predicting victory for the former, I'm not yet ready to count out her opponent.
Roy MacGregor's comments on this matter in the Dec. 28 Globe and Mail strike me as being well over the top. Klander's comments could be a turning point for the entire national campaign? Outside Trinity-Spadina, or at most Toronto south of St Clair, who is likely to care? John Ibbitson's discussion in the same issue of the possible consequences of the Boxing Day shootings on Yonge Street north of Dundas are much more sensible. That unhappy event may have political fallout that at present is still hard to calculate but may well cost the Liberals a few seats.
26 12 05 td
Again, another NDP seat and I'll give you 2 reasons I selected a win here for the NDP:
1. Olivia Chow, the NDP candidate, was on city council in Toronto which means she not only knows the issues in the riding and more importantly she knows the people
2. She's married to Jack Layton- Now before people judge me on that comment, hear me out as Layton's wife people are going to want to elect a husband wife team to the House of Commons and Jack would be visible in the riding during the election.
26 12 05 Canadian Press Clipping
Liberal exec resigns after comparing NDP's Olivia Chow to a dog on his blog
A high-ranking official within the Liberal Party of Canada has stepped down after he made disparaging comments on his blog about NDP Leader Jack Layton and his wife, NDP candidate Olivia Chow.
Mike Klander, executive vice-president of the federal Liberal party's Ontario wing, resigned today after he compared Chow to a dog and called Layton an ``asshole.''
The postings have been taken down.
Stephen Heckbert, a Liberal spokesman, says Klander's blog was personal and did not reflect the Liberal party as a whole.
Heckbert says Klander has apologized to Chow.
Heckbert says Klander was a volunteer and did not play an official role for the Liberals during this election campaign.
26 12 05 Mike D
I think the Klanders Chow-Chow incident will blow up in the faces of Downtown Toronto Liberals. Just like when Canadians rebuked the PCs for the 1993 ad about Chretien's disability, the Liberals will watch Ianno (and possibly others) fall due to their own arrogance.
25 12 05
If the story unconvered by journalist and blogger Paul Wells becomes one of the the bombs of the campaign, Trinity-Spadina may get Olivia Chow as its MP in '06. The story is about comparison made by Mike Klander, an Ontario Liberal organizer. He equated the picture of Chow with one of a dog. That was breaking an unwritten rule in politics, which is "don't mess with a political leader's wife". If this news gain strength in the media, it has chances to become an "Yvettes" moment like the 1980 referendum in Quebec. Anyway, that's not going to be positive for Ianno and possibly for the whole Liberal party if they wish to hold power.
25 12 05 Mark R.
Polling shows NDP growth in 416 up about 4 points on average vs. the 2004 election results. Given the closeness of the race last time, in spite of the housing development, the NDP should be able to capture this one. Ianno is a marked man. Olivia quit Toronto council to put a full-time effort into this riding and this should bode well. The message that Layton has reinforced with Toronto voters about the Toronto Liberal caucus "not producing results" in Toronto is beginning to resonate with 416 voters. I think that 3 times "luck" will favour Ms. Chow.
23 12 05 Aric H
I think this riding is the most likely NDP pickup in Ontario. The NDP almost won it last time and with Jack Layton having an even higher profile this year than last I think Olivia Chow will benefit from it enough to put her over the top. The Liberal vote will probably be a bit down in this election from last and now that Olivia Chow knows that she has to make changes from last time such as resigning her council seat and spending more time in the riding, she can win it from Tony Ianno. Voters will probably want to benefit from having an NDP MP connected to Layton who can do things for them in Parliament rather than a non influential Liberal MP.
22 12 05 JB
With 6400 new condo units since last election, meaning roughly 10,000 more voters, the Liberals have a great chance at most of them!
15 12 05 Mike F.
This is a very polorized riding, and has been canvassed harder than almost any riding in the country, certainly the GTA. There's virtually no undecided vote here that might swing with national polls. This is not Martin vs. Layton it's clearly Ianno vs. Chow.
What are some of the things that have changed since last election?
In Chow's favour:
- She's resigned from Council, which was a criticism of her last time
- She'll presumably spend more time in the riding this time and less on the national campaign
- School's in (It is unclear how many more votes this might mean that UofT would produce from residence students - but with residences out there like Trinity College it would be naive to assume the student vote would be solely NDP or even majority NDP automatically), although many of those residences are in Toronto Centre-Rosedale.
In Ianno's favour:
- Approximately 5,000+ new condo units have gone in which he carried handily last time (federal elections usually have 60%+ turnouts which equates to big numbers here)
- Tony is a Minister for the first time not a backbencher, which had been a major criticism of him last time
- Chow is seen as damaged goods more than before, or at least as a known quantity (I would venture to say that she was seen as the favourite last time)
- No infuriating provincial liberal budget mid-election this time
What is clear is that it is not impossible, but it will be very tough for Olivia to win. If anything it appears that things have not shifted significantly in her favour and one could argue have even shifted against her IMO.
15 12 05 AR
The condo population hasn't risen in the past year so the "condo effect" won't be any worse this time than last. The Chow campaign has also learned its lesson and is putting more effort into condos this time, particularly educating condo voters about the realities of the riding and that it's not necessary to "vote strategically" for the Tories to keep out the Liberals here.
Moreoever, unlike last election, this vote takes place during the school year meaning there are tens of thousands more university students around to both work on Chow's campaign and vote for her (the NDP is polling stronger amongst youth and university students in particular than among other demographic grouops so the student vote could close the gap for Chow here).
15 12 05 Mr. G
I'm not sure Olivia has enough to make it "first past the post" -- yousee to win in this riding, I think your surname needs to end in a vowel, A, E, I, O, U, (or sometimes Y). Examples: IannO, MarchesE, PantalonE. May I suggest that the NDP candidate reverse here name on lawn signs: "Chow Olivia" or maybe even "Ciao Olivia" -- that would surely give her a fighting chance... ;-)
14 12 05 DW
The sight of NDP Mayor David Miller fawning over Paul Martin! Olivia Chow in the 2004 election would begin every candidate forum by stating "remember how good it felt to elect our new mayor David Miller, we could have that feeling again". I wonder if she will be starting her opening remarks the same way this time. Miller's quasi endorsement of the Liberals, a picture is worth a thousand words, the general malaise in the NDP's campaign and fortunes, Buzz Hargrove another Martin groupie, Olivia needs some coat tails - she better hope that the Greens implode this time out. If the Greens maintain their numbers, and has been pointed out the condo vote for Tony, well...
I am not calling this one yet, it will be close, but Olvia is all about bluster, notice me! notice me! In this sleeper campaign she had better reach even deeper into the NDP's bag of typical election day tricks to pull this one out. Big upside folks, if Olivia loses, we may all be rid of her, that is until the spring when she announces her candidacy for council - again !
12 12 05 DS
I think it's early days yet for counting lawn signs; at this point, it only shows where the true believers live :-), But I think Olivia Chow will take this riding on 23 January because: She's resigned from City Council which demonstrates her commitment this time more than last. And, while Tony Ianno is running as an incumbent, Olivia as challenger has had two close calls in this riding and has presumably learned from her mistakes. I figure she wouldn't be running a third time if she didn't have a good idea that she could win it this time. On the other hand, I suppose the same could have been said last time as well.
Nevertheless, I expect to see a lot more of her in the riding during this campaign. In 2004, she was all over Toronto-Danforth, campaigning on Jack Layton's behalf, but he won't need her help this time around. As David Watters pointed out, this riding is so close that in the end, it'll all come down to organisation. I predict Chow in a squeaker.
12 12 05 Scott
Brad what does signs have to do with anything in the city of Toronto? 1) The NDP and Liberals are both noted for taking advantage of immigrants and putting up signs on their property even though they cannot vote, 2) Your forgetting about the Condo's were there are no signs. Those people aren't voting NDP in mass numbers, and 3) Most of all signs don't vote and clearly Ianno is better at getting his out.
12 12 05 University
5,700 new condo units in just 18 months since the last election; these polls are overwhemingly Liberal. Olivia's got her work cut out for her.
10 12 05 markdsgraham
I live in this riding, and as a Conservative I'm relatively disinterested in the outcome. However, I think that Olivia Chow is in a much better position this time than she was last time, and that pretty well seals the deal for her.
A previous poster commented about lawn-signs. I had the same experience last year. I live at Harbord and Bathurst, and I felt like everywhere I went people had both Chow and "Layton and the Toronto Team" signs. The day the election was called this year I walked between Bathurst and Spadina along Harbord and saw four Olivia Chow signs - four, within hours of the election call. BUT, the problem with all this is that (a) Harbord village is Chow's area of the riding - walk into the more thoroughly Italian/Portugese areas of the riding and you get a different story, and (b) a lot of Ianno voters are not lawn-sign-types the way Chow's more rabidly partisan crowd are.
That said, just the shifts in the perception of the party leaders should be enough to give this one to Chow. Also, the longer campaign works in her favour, as her machine will take a little longer to get moving than Ianno's.
08 12 05 Alex B
Olivia Chow isn't going to win this one. I used to live in this riding when I was studying at the University of Toronto, and some people in the Chinese community told me Olivia wasn't so popular across Chinatown. Apparently, Chinese-Canadians don't like the fact that she's running for a left-wing party (they still have memories of what communism looks like back home). Someone I know who volunteered for the Liberals and did door-to-door campaigning for them told me that a lot of Chinese-Canadians also despise her being married to a non-Chinese person, a "White communist" (so they say).
Therefore, I think she's in for a rough ride. If she manages to pull it off, it'll be a very close one, but somehow I don't think she will, so let's go with the grits for this seat.
06 12 05 DW
Last time out there was no chance of losing Olivia, because she would remain on council. She thinks this will play to her advantage, if we do not vote for her we could lose her forever. Well, there are a lot of people in Tri Spa who would LOVE to see the last of Olivia, that too may play into Tony's favour at the expense of the Tories.
06 12 05 Brad Dugard
A week into the campaign, walking through the riding from work every day, and yet to see an Ianno lawn sign - dozens of Chow's though.
02 12 05 PB
At this early point in the campaign, the Liberals are only marginally weaker than last time and the NDP only marginally stronger. But this race will be won in the margins. If the NDP can flip just one Liberal voter per poll to them, it will be a net swing of 900+ votes - enough to take the seat. Of course, there's still a long way to go, but given the trend in votes from 2000 to 2004, I think momentum gives this one to the NDP.
01 12 05 AV
Never, ever underestimate Tony Ianno. While Olivia Chow has been campaigning pretty hard in the waterfront condos, their demographics remain Liberal (and maybe Tory), and more than a dozen have gone up since the last election.
30 11 05 Devin Johnston
Olivia Chow is one of the NDP's most important candidates in this election. She lost one of the closest races of 2004, and hasn't stopped campaigning since. She is the wife of NDP Leader Jack Layton, and a respected municipal politician in her own right.
29 11 05 MJL
Firstly, regarding Sam Goldstein on gay marriage - while his views may be more in line with those in the riding, that doesn't mean they will help the Tory total. It has already been pointed out that the past candidate was pro-gay marriage - it might be added that Stephen Harper informs the opinions of far more Trinity-Spadinians about what the CPC stands for, and further that there are probably more than 9% of the riding that oppose gay marriage (and might stay home instead of voting Conservative). We all saw how Bush was able to win by mobilizing evangelicals (I'm not saying the Conservatives would win with this strategy, but that they might win more votes).
Secondly, I really have to ask what has changed this time around? Has Olivia Chow become a better candidate? Has the sponsorship scandal gotten worse? Indeed most federal polls have the political landscape as a mirror of last time.
It is possible that Olivia has an advantage in the organizational muscle freed up by a likely win in Toronto-Danforth. At the same time, the Greens may well do better this time around. After all, they have money now, and may be included in the leadership debate.
Given these factors, I think its definitely too close to call (that is not opting out of making a call, I should add, it means that I'm predicting the result will be close, and not a clear win for either side).
29 11 05 Peter McG
Its official in the Toronto Star today. Olivia's left City Council to run federally. I'm inclined to agree with DW, the former Tory candidate: Organization will win in this riding. The last few times that Olivia has run, school has been out in this student-infested riding. Nothing boosts an organization like dozens of idealistic young students aching for a reason not to go to classes. sure beats the pants off those dowdy-old NDP lifers that usually spark up the local NDP campaigns these days. I think Olivia will win with much-improved organization over previous campaigns due to the fact of a January election meaning students will be actually in session and living in these progressive-leaning student ridings. I'm saying that all students lean NDP, far from it. It's just that NDP leaning student are generally the most politically active in an idealistic sense. It's my experience the young liberals and tories are more enamoured with the ambitious and resume padding aspects of political exercise. If this campaign ends up being about ideals instead of mudslinging (and only an appallingly strong NDP campaign has the potential to do this) This and several student-heavy ridings may turn orange. Yes, young people don't vote. But the ones that do are hard-core evangelists and political junkies. They will form a willing army for any candidate who can properly mobilize and inspire them. Just my opinion. I'm sure many will disagree. Also with Olivia completely devoting herself to the campaign instead of moonlighting it, this will also prove to be a boost.
28 11 05 J Porter
The new update is Olivia Chow is stepping down municipally to devote herself to her candidacy for Trinity-Spadina federally. This is an important issue since last election she had just been re-elected to city council and many wondered at her level of committment. Before the people of Trinity-Spadina knew they would not lose her regardless. Now the case is clear, and the writing is on the wall for Tony Ianno.
24 11 05 DL
I think Olivia will win easily this time. All the indications are that NDP support nationwide is higher and Liberal support is lower and a rising tide will raise all ships. On top of that she has been in overdrive working the condos and canvassing them and working on their issues like crazy. There is no way that Ianno will win them by the margins he did last time when the NDP barely campaigned there. On top of that all the students will be in the riding in January - they were not there in 2004 as it was late June.
A lot of their last minute strategic voting was over the fear of a Conservative gov´t killing equal marriage - now that bill has passed and will be almost impossible to revoke. I predict a Chow win by about 5,000 votes.
22 11 05 GH
I like Olivia, and have happily voted for her in the past (and would again, if I hadn't moved). Also, I can't stand Ianno - he has a kind of unique dimwitted sliminess that John Barber brought out very well in a column just after the 2004 election.
Having said that, I think Trinity-Spadina is going to keep being frustrating for the NDP. It's a riding they could *just* win, but probably won't - John Sewell explained why in his post-election column in 2004:
She lost by about 1,345 votes. ( He's using figures published on election night, when 50-odd polls had yet to report. The correct margin is 800.) Green Mark Viitala attracted 1,607 votes, but it's optimistic to think that those votes would have gone to the NDP if the Greens weren't in the race -- those voters might not have voted at all. The real problem for Chow was that conservative-leaning votes in the riding rushed over to Ianno to block Harper.

The theory that the riding’s Red Tories swung to Ianno, giving him the margin he needed, actually does explain quite a lot.
Chow lost by exactly 800 votes. The Tory candidate in the riding, David Watters, got 4,605, or 8.65% of the vote.
In 2000, in the redistributed results for of Trinity-Spadina (ie. the 2004 boundaries of the riding projected backward on the 2000 election), the combined votes of the Tories and Alliance were 5,443, or 12.84%. 12.84% of the total 2004 vote in Trin-Spadina would have been 6,838 votes.
So in 2004, the riding had 2,200-odd ex-Tories, disaffected Tories, exiled Tories, call them what you want to, who in the past had voted either PC or in theory Alliance, who were looking for a place to park their ballots.
There isn't any reason I can think of why somebody who voted for the Alliance in 2000 wouldn't want to vote for the CPC this year; so they'd pretty much have to be Tories in the old-fashioned sense.
Centrist Red Tories voting Liberal are going to be an ongoing liability for the NDP.
18 11 05 DW
As a former candidate I have some useful insight into this riding.
Tony Ianno has run in each general election in Trinity Spadina since 1988. He was not successful in 1988, but has won in 93, 97, 2000 and 2004. Some have attributed his wins to a general wave of support for the Liberals in Ontario, a closer examination of the results over these four elections demonstrates a different reason for Ianno enduring electoral success. Ianno is all about organization. Even if one were to conceed that 93, 97 and 2000 were all about a big Ontario Liberal wave, then how does one explain Ianno's 2004 win against Chow (the rematch downtown) when the Liberals were suffering from the inital stages of the sponsership scandal, and the NDP was successfully making its case for a central role. Believe me, Ianno was getting pretty bloodied up out there, both in debates and at the doorstep. His record in the house (speaking infrequently) and the fact that, at that point, he still ha\d not ascended into cabinet, were playing against him. Yet he still won. Organization.
Ianno's team seized on the redrwn boundries of Trinity Spadina, the largest plum at that time being the oldest condo towers (Harbour Square) Tony won, I believe, every single condo poll in the entire riding. Well this time around there are even more condo's.
Olivia Chow ran a campaign that assumed that she would win. We all know what happens to those who assume. She seemed to spend as much time out of the riding as she did in the riding. In my opinion the critcal mistake she made was not resigning her seat on council. This did not play well among the electorate who had given her a new 3 year mandate just 6 months before. Should Chow run again federally it will make 2 election campaigns since she was last elected to City Hall. Will she give up her seat this time, if she loses the Federal Election will she seek a council seat again? These are the types of hard decisions that Chow will be forced to take. Chow has not yet demonstrated an ability to appeal beyond her base of support. While I feel it is admirable to have such strong convictions, the higher the office, the more you must be able to expand your views, as well as understand the views of others. Chow does exceedingly well in municipal elections where nobody mounts a real challenge to her, and the voter turnout is lower. But when it comes to the big leagues it becomes abvoius that she has only mastered tee ball.
The Conservative campaign of 2004 was modest, but a success in terms of the first real effort put forth probably since 1988 or 1993. Low in profile and budget there were limits to what could be achieved. Although disappointed in our result, we were pleased that our message was well recieved and repected. The 2004 election provided Conservative candidates with the luxury of speaking there own minds on social issues, the promised free votes allowed a candidate to be socially progressive and still carry the Conservative flag. In the coming election, the abolition of same sex marriage is now party policy, I am not sure where that leaves individual candidates. The party is not currently playing up its social conservative side, but you can be sure that the Liberals and NDP will.
As far as 2006 goes, Ianno is running, Chow almost certainly will run, Sam Goldstien, socially progressive, will be carrying the Conservative banner. The wild card will be the Greens how they perform will likely determine the outcome of this campaign.
I suspect that the Conservatives will run a good local campaign, and if there visability is good, and the national campaign does not impact them too negativley, they will make some gains, at Ianno's expense. If the Green's manage to build on what they did last time out and take some protest vote away from the NDP, it will come at Chow's expense. These two things being said it would seem to come down to a close race between Ianno and Chow.
Remember, organization wins.
18 11 05 Still a Progressive Conservative
There've been more Liberal friendly condos being built in the riding lately, but those of us who live in them aren't loyal Liberals and the NDP have plenty of support. The Tories and others don't really count and won't tip the balance.
I'll go out on a limb and say that the better the national Liberal campaign does (hence the less likely a Tory minority), the more likely the NDP can snatch this seat, especially if Chow runs.
19 09 05 Jeremy
While I am tempted to agree with Nick's analysis It should be noted that the last Conservative Candidate in Trinity-Spadina was pro-gay marriage and also marched in the pride parade and all it got him was 9%, which is only slightly more than half of what the Alliance and PC's got in 2000.
With Stephen Harper much more explicitly anti-gay marriage and with the Conservatives actually taking an official policy stance against it, Sam Goldstien could walk around wearing a rainbow flag and it wouldn't do him any good. Olivia would be a mascicist to run here again, how many times can one person take being beaten? (though I suppose Defienbaker got it on the fourth try). Recent poll results put the Liberals in majority territory and it seems far more likely to me that Ianno would benefit from this as he did in 2000, than Chow would benefit from Liberals going to the Tories. Of course these results could change after the sponsorship report but either way I think this riding will be far more influenced by the national trend. I.e If Olivia does have a chance of winning this it will only be because of a strong National campaign by the NDP.
01 07 05 Nick Boragina
after some "fun" in my life, I now find myself living in the corner of this riding. I've done some research on the candidates, and found that the conservative candidate, samuel goldberg, marched in the gay pride parade. With a social leftie running for the tories, there's more of a chance for the tories to take liberal votes. I think this will only boost an already strong NDP campaign, whoever's running.
22 06 05 Bear and Ape
So we don't know if Olivia will run or not. We think she will, especially if the NDP are looking as pretty as they are now. Yes we know that the NDP looked very pretty during the last campaign...at least until election night, just after the ever famous "NDP voters beware, Harper is out to get you" speak by Martin. Thing is Olivia and other Lakeshore NDPers probably lost because (as TAM so excellently put it in his/her posting for Toronto-Danforth) Mills gave Layton such a run for his money that NDP resources were drawn to help out Jack. Mills isn't going to be there this time and Layton will win much more easily, allowing resources to be directed here and other Lakeshore ridings. Third time's a charm for Olivia.
14 06 05 MH
As in 2004, this race seems too close to call, and it will probably stay that way right up to the election, whenever it takes place. Jack Layton's positive performance in Parliament should help any NDP candidate in Trinity-Spadina, and especially Olivia Chow IF she decides to run again. But Tony Ianno is a skilled constituency man who won in 2004 in the face of many predictions that he was for the high jump. Never underestimate him, especially because the well-heeled people moving into the southern end of the constituency are likely to favour the Liberals over the NDP.
Only one thing is certain: whatever throwaway candidate the Conservatives decide to run here will be DM. The Greens may even outpoll the Tories this time.
08 06 05 A.S.
So 2004 saw the first elected couple in Parliament...the Grewals. Here's a definite case where, had the riding's demographics resembled those of as little as a year or two before (maybe even as recently as the 2003 provincial election?!?), Olivia Chow could have won, even if only barely...but that fact remains, it wasn't supposed to be "barely". In fact, Olivia was supposed to be more of a cinch than Jack (and come to think of it, even Jack "barely" won). So, the hopes of an "Alexa effect" in the inner 416 came to naught; maybe it looked like a desperation move at first, but it worked--the Grits one-upped the Laytonites as the "party of the cities" (to the point where they even nearly upset Alexa herself in Halifax). Then again, unlike Alexa in '97, maybe '04 was less of a lucky plateau than a dress rehearsal--regardless of whether Olivia's the standard-bearer next time around. As for the Tories, they could just wind up underperforming Green in jurisdictions like this--which, considering the demographic factors that allowed Tony Ianno's last victory from the jaws of defeat, is just the blessing the Grits need and the NDP fears. So, jury's still out; even if Olivia runs, this is feeling less like Ianno vs Chow than Ianno vs Valpy all over again; i.e. we must remain *very* circumspect...
02 06 05 Aric H
I am not sure that it is correct to say that Olivia Chow is not running as someone said below. I have heard from people in Toronto that say that until the writ is actually dropped or is close to being dropped, Olivia is not going to declare because she is still a councillor and does not want to give people the impression that she is just focusing on the federal election and not on her municipal position. Anyway, this will be a close riding again, but I would say we will know more when the writ is dropped and the NDP reveal whether Chow is the candidate or not.
17 05 05 Mike B
Despite her high profile, Chow isn't a particularly strong candidate (anyone ever seen her in a debate?) but the star power and generally strong performance of Jack Layton through this whole federal crisis should tip the scales in what was a tighly contested riding last time.
16 05 05 Charles Ruby
Since it looks like Olivia won't be running in this riding and now that the Conservatives have nominated an unknown candidate, I have to tip this one back to Tony Ianno.
He he doesn't lose any votes due the recent Liberal scandal. He was so far out the loop that he had no idea what the Quebec arm was doing. He's a cabinet minister now and he, along with most of the other Liberal Cabinet, has been dropping money like Hansel and Gretzel afraid of getting lost in the dark woods. Tony did very well in the Condo belt last time and there have been many more built since then.
A close race, a tight race but in the end other Liberal victory.
16 05 05 Craig
They say "three's the charm" and that will apply to Olivia Chow here in Trinity-Spadina, although in a very narrow victory. The Liberals remain very strong in the 416 area code (and the urban 905 area as well) and will certainly not make it easy for her. However, Tony Ianno won't be as lucky as 800 votes is easy to overcome, particularly when this riding is dominated by left-leaning groups and cultures. This is a Conservative wasteland; they will be lucky to reach the former deposit level of 15%. Predicted results: NDP 41%, LIB 38%, CPC 13%, GRN 5%, others 3%.
09 05 05 Canadian Redhead
I’m predicting an NDP win here.
Ms. Chow missed last election by 806 votes. I agree with Brandon: this time she will be able to focus exclusively on her own campaign and do better. As well, the Liberals generally are doing poorly, and Mr. Ianno’s recent presence in the media is less that flattering.
Chow can siphon 806 votes from the Liberals (or even the Greens), and when she does, she’ll join Jack in Ottawa (how sweet-ug!).
06 05 05 MF
I was certain (and I think most observers regardless of their politics were as well) that Olivia Chow would have won here last time. Instead, she lost by a hair. But NDP numbers have gone up enough and Lib numbers down enough to suggest that the NDP will prevail here. Chow will win the champagne socialist Annex vote and do respectably enough in the riding's ethnic communities to win. There are 2 demographic changes to note, but they cancel each other out: there's the increased luxury condo vote (mostly business-oriented professionals, benefits the Libs) and the shrinking Portuguese and Italian vote whose homes are being bought up by urban intelligentsia types (benefits the NDP). Remember that in the old city of Toronto, affluence doesn't necessarily inhibit one from voting NDP (there's entreprenurial/business professional affluence and urban intelligentsia/new middle class affluence) - in fact I'll wager that the homeowners on NDP-friendly Palmerston Blvd. or Walmer Rd. are better off than the average condo dweller.
Prediction: NDP 47%, LIB 37%, CON 10%, others 6%
30 10 05 ML
Ever heard the phrase "third time's a charm?" If Chow runs again, she'll clinch the seat. Just with GTA polling alone, the Liberals are substantially less than they were a year ago. Expect a wallop of Libs to vote Con or NDP, leaving the door open for Chow. Million $ waterfront condo's won't keep Ianno alive this time...speaking of the waterfront...show up some damn action Mr. Mills!!!
03 05 05 PGW
While it was a surprise to many New Democrats that Olivia Chow lost here in 2004, it was by only 800 votes. Now that Jack's riding is secure, a lot of NDP resources in Toronto can be devoted to other downtown seats, this one chief among them. Also, a recent Environics poll puts the NDP above their 2004 results in the 416.
02 05 05 Benjamin Waterman
If the NDP picks up any other seats in Ontario, which is very likely, this will be the first to fall. Olivia Chow lost by only a tiny margin last time. If she runs again, this will be an easy gain for the NDP. It will take only the smallest Liberal drop in Ontario.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
I expect that if Olivia Chow runs again, she will succeed this time in knocking off Tony Ianno since he is pretty low profile cabinet minister while she is a well known city councillor and not to mention Jack Layton's wife. This is also traditionally an NDP riding due to all the young single household dwellings. However, I was almost positive the NDP would win this in 2004 and they didn't so maybe the liberals will pull another rabbit out of the hat, although I think Ianno's luck will eventually run out.
02 05 05 Brandon
Olivia Chow lost last time because she was barely in the riding campaigning (she was campaigning with husband Jack Layton) and let her Toronto city council election people run her campaign, and not the NDP riding association. If she corrects these mistakes this time, the NDP or whoever else runs for the New Democrats will win.
02 05 05 Fatal Ruminate
I think that even if Olivia Chow decides to run against Tony Ianno this won't be the easy victory that many in the NDP expect. Tony has a record of beating Olivia despite the odds. Don't forget Tony still that windfall of cash in his trust fund and so far the Adscam scandal hasn't touched him. He even got a minor cabinet position in the last reshuffle, so his detractors can't use that against him.
Don't forget Trinity–Spadina attracts a lot of fringe parties who seem to siphon votes away from the NDP.
While Olivia might get some sympathy votes for her recent bout with thyroid cancer, she still loses votes for keeping her Metro seat while campaigning federally.
Maybe, if she give s up her seat and spends more time in the riding rather than campaigning for Jack she'll have a chance.
27 04 05 JC
If Olivia Chow or Rosario Marchese runs in this riding the NDP will easily win this riding, if not Ianno has it.

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