Update/Mise à jour:
12:31 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:08 AM 06/05/2005
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Yurgo Alexopoulos
Maurizio Bevilacqua
Paolo Fabrizio
Richard Majkot
Adrian Visentin

Hon. Maurizio Bevilacqua

2004 Result/Résultats:
Maurizio Bevilacqua
Joe Spina
Octavia Beckles
Russell Korus
Paolo Fabrizio
Walter Aolari

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 01 06 mp
MF, I think you're giving voters a little too much credit in your analysis as to why Joe Spina didn't do well here. It has precious little to do with his right wing comments, not enough people were listening to him to impact the election. No one knew who Spina was, and even fewer cared to find out who he was. Simply put this is a liberal riding with a large italian base. Any party not running an italian is basically slapping that community in the face and they shouldn't expect alot of their support (this is particuarly true with those born in Italy). The Liberal incumbent is about as sure a thing as there is in the country, he has name recognition, is italian, and has been in parliament for the better part of 2 decades without scandal (virtually unheard of nowadays). The NDP is basically not running a candidate this time out (I haven't seen 1 sign as of yet and the election is in 4 days) and the conservatives would only have a chance with a name candidate (like when Al Paladini won this seat provincially). I think the leadership talk is a nice way to cement support here but is nothing more than talk. I would expect Ken Dryden to emerge as a leadership favourite if the Liberals fall this election.
25 12 05 A.S.
In 2004, CPC won Poll #1...and lost everything else, even the advance polls. With a former MPP, yet. Any threat to Bevilacqua the Tories might have posed in the past has been redistributed out of the picture: first Richmond Hill and Thornhill, and now Aurora. Though there is one "right-winger" in the running that's worth talking about: 2000's Alliance standard-bearer Adrien Visentin is now the Green candidate (and he also ran provincially in '03). Figure out for yourself what that says about Jim Harris, or Preston Manning, or how well the Greens did in Alberta in '04...
15 05 05 MF
Last poster: What do you mean that Italian-Canadians will "support one of their own"? They had a choice between Italian-Canadians Bevilaqua and Joe Spina? Rejecting Spina had nothing to do with ethnicity - it was because that he's kind of a loose cannon and with his statements about the "Communist Broadcasting Corporation" (and earlier statements about bilingualism, "garbage immigrants" and women in the workplace) made him come across like someone from the Reform Party - which was never popular in the GTA.
I'm certain this riding will stay in the Liberal camp, but by a decreased margin. Through the 90s this riding has pretty much gone with provincial and federal trends.
Prediction: 55% LIB, 30% CON, 11% NDP, 3% others
06 05 05
Culturally more 416 than 905 now, Vaughan has grown so much it has been pared down to just the urban area, a Liberal stronghold. The large Italian community will want to support one of their own, and many more Liberal-types are coming to this area, which just crowds out everyone else. This will be one of the first seats called. AdScam will not really make a big difference here. Predicted results: LIB 62%, CPC 22%, NDP 11%, GRN 4%, others 1%.
03 05 05 Dr. Predicto
Maurizio Bevilaqua owns this riding for as long as he wants to keep it. He will return even if a total Liberal meltdown occurs nationally.
03 05 05 JC
Bevilaqcua is so safe here there is no way the Conservatives can win this seat, This is as red as it gets.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
With the rapid growing population of people from the 416 area, this is a natural liberal constituency. In addition it has a large Italian community where Maurizio Bevilacqua is well liked. Add to the fact he is a possible successor to Paul Martin as liberal leader and maybe a future prime-minister and this equals a liberal win.

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