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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Jody Di Bartolomeo
Mel Grunstein
John Maloney
Christian Heritage
Irma Ruiter
Brian Simpson
Ron Walker

John Maloney

2004 Result/Résultats:
John Maloney
Jody Di Bartolomeo
Mel Grunstein
Ryan McLaughlin
Irma D. Ruiter
Ron Walker

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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19 01 06 TP
I would chalk this one for the Liberals. This riding does not always follow the national or provincial trends. We need to look no further than our provincial representative. However, much like this MPP is popular amongst constituents, so is Maloney. Granted the vote may be closer than in the last election. But in areas that are traditionally strong Conservative (ie South St Kitts, Wainfleet) or strong NDP (east Welland), the Liberals are second. When added to the areas that are strong Liberal (Port Colborne, parts of Welland) that likely means a Liberal win.
DiBartolomeo is busy trying to ride coat tails to power. He is a weak candidate as many posters on this site have made clear. As well, provincial NDP voters do not automatically translate into federal NDP voters. Maloney has his own well respected character that many appreciate.
18 01 06 Bear and Ape
Though we are giving this to the Liberals, we feel that an NDP win is not out of the cards, nor is even a CPC win (albeit a much, much smaller chance). The Liberals have/are falling and that vote has to go somewhere. It is foolish to think that in the current political climate that the Liberals will hold their 2004 numbers. It is unlikely the NDP will win over voters in the rural part of the riding and unlikely that CPC will win over urban voters, but both parties will make gains. Bottom line, Maloney with less than 1000 votes.
18 01 06 MF
Color this one red again. Given that this very working class riding is the stronghold of Peter Kormos, if the NDP nominated a candidate in that mold they would have taken it. Unfortunately, they went with Di Bartolomeo (who never mentioned labor reform) again over a life-long trade union activist in Welland (which was central to his campaign).
17 01 06 RD
Don't tell me why the Conservatives WON'T win, Gerry. As you can see from my prediction, I AGREE. The Cons obviously have a base of support, but its not enough to put them over the top. What I predicted was that the Liberals were falling - throughout Ontario. The Star said those Liberal numbers were stabilizing a bit now, finally, but they are still well below last time around. Please tell my why you think the Liberals will hold this riding, despite their decline from 2004, and in the face of a sitting provincial NDP MPP.
16 01 06 Gerry Olga
First of all, RD, you must either not live in this riding or must be very out of touch with it. Take a peak around this riding and you will realize that this is a two-horse race. The Conservatives will finish a distant third - worse than in 2004 - because they simply do not have the support in Port Colborne and Welland. Their only signs are on a few private lots and scattered ridiculously along the highway. Sure, a lot of Ontario seats are at risk of being scooped by Conservatives, but this isn't one of them.
15 01 06 RD
With the Liberals falling outside Toronto, and the NDP rising (24% across Ontario in the last SES poll), I definitely think Welland comes into play for the NDP. Peter Kormos holds this riding for the provincial NDP, one of only 8 in the Ontario legislature. The polls suggest that the NDP will be sending many more than 8 MPs to Ottawa this time around, and I think Jody DiBartolomeo will be one of them. The wild card in this riding is the Conservatives, but I think the NDP organization here is stronger and at best, the Con Grunstein could lock up second place to push the Liberals into a shocking third.
04 01 06 Chas
5000 votes is a large margin. Playing catchup is impossible. Much as I'd like to see the NDP take this riding it ain't gonna happen. It's a two way race so no Conservative to siphon off Liberal votes. Perhaps with a stronger candidate the NDP might have come within striking distance but Jody is no Kormos.
28 12 05 M. Lunn
I agree with the previous posters that if the Liberals lost this riding, it would more likely go NDP than Conservative. But it won't happen. The NDP vote was largely concentrated in around Thorold, while quite weak in the Southern parts of the riding. Likewise the Conservatives did well in small communities like Wainfleet, but were weak elsewhere. On the other hand the Liberal vote was above 35% in pretty much all parts of the riding and just based on the demographics of the riding I cannot see the NDP swinging over a large amounts of the rural vote, nor can I see the Conservatives swinging over much of the urban vote. For that reason, John Maloney will be re-elected.
27 12 05 Nathan King
I think this riding will go NDP this election. The vote last time was far closer than the Liberals will admit to and Jody is a far stronger candidate this time around. Besides living in the riding, despite what the Liberals claim, Jody is willing to stand up for the people of Welland, Port Colborne,Wainfleet, Thorold and Southern St. Catharines.
Maloney on the other hand has allowed Atlas to go under and put hundreds of people out of work, even though he was Chairman of the Steel Caucus. Wainfleet is being stripped of its agricultural lands in order to make way for luxury condos and the Port Colborne brownfield problem is really underlining Liberal failure in the riding. The people of this area have yet to see any positive growth and many young people have been forced to leave the city to look for work simply because, despite Liberal election promises, the entire area is suffering economically. Constantly electing Liberals hasn't fixed that problem.
30 11 05 Backroom Worker
I would like to point out something other people may be missing unless you were imbedded in the campaign last year. The NDP only lost by a few thousand votes, some of which will have been swing voters, but the respective campaigns were run differently. The liberals had money going in. . . the NDP did not and we stalled from lack of resources. This time the NDP in welland have a fair chunk of change, professional organizers and are reaching out to areas like west St.Catharines with a local campaign office. To contrast that the local liberals are pretty much broke, and are have problems with volunteers. This time jody will win. . .
30 11 05 SJM
My sources tell me that poll by poll in this riding, provincially NDP voters are federal liberal voters while Conservatives remain static. What that means is that this will stay Liberal baring a big upswing in the national NDP vote.
But it's way to early for all of that.
30 11 05 RedTory
You could wrap a red scarf around my dead dog and he'd win this riding for the Liberals. The ex-Alliance three-time loser running for the Conservatives will see history repeat itself. Welland and Port Colborne are not very socially progressive areas, but they're mostly working class and not the rural Ontario voters to whom the neo-Conservative party appeals.
The local NDP made a critical error in renominating DiBartolomeo, who has done little to distinguish himself apart from his PhD degree, and whose Port Colborne appeal will be crushed by Maloney's tremendous popularity there. A more strategic decision would have been to nominate a prominent Wellander with either progressive views or labour ties. As it is, the NDP riding association has based itself in Port, limiting its presence on the ground in Welland. But perhaps the only real way the Liberals could have lost this seat would have been Peter Kormos's decision to resign his Queen's Park seat and run federally. That would have made for a very close and interesting race.
Prediction: Maloney re-elected by a double-digit percentage margin.
28 11 05 c
This is a severely working-class, frankly most of the whole niagara-hamilton area is (The bridge from Burlington to Hamilton takes you into quite a different world). The Welland area in particular has been recently hard hit by a lot of shutdowns, unemployment, and transitions to cheap-lower quality non-union jobs.
other things to consider:
Provincially this riding went NDP by 50% last time (and that included support in south St. cathatrines), yes some of that has to do with Kormos being Kormos, but not all of it. There is NDP history here(mel swart), and even in 2000 the NDP still did better thatn the provincial average and Ontario support for them has recently exploded.
The fairly-small but noticeable and influential French community was sort of bought-up by Gib Parent, while Tirabassi did something similar with the similar Italian community-none of that is present now
The federal Liberals seem to be collapsing, and were already not as popular in a place like this, association with provincial liberals does not help, and in a provincial by-election in hamilton recently the NDP slughtered everyone else with 65%
24 11 05 TPMac
In 2004, Maloney was a relative unknown in 75% of the riding, with the addition of Thrld and Wlnd to his riding. Maloney, keeping with his effective constituency centred approach, has had time to become familiar with the electorate, as he did in his previous riding (that was mostly CPC). Locally, the candidates will remain the same. Both Grunstein and DiBartolomeo are multiple, multiple losers. Grunstein has shown he may know the issues, but his extreme views are clearly prevalent and unworkable in a "left leaning" riding. Despite DiBartolomeo's academic credentials, he has continuously shown his lack of knowledge of the issues and poor public speaking ability. Neither are of the calibre of an effective politician. Nationally, it is unfortunate that we are faced with an election that the majority of Cdns don't want, and would rather have it in the spring (when Martin promised). The motivation of the CPC and NDP leaders are selfish and based on a greed for power. Despite Layton's and Harper's prior promises that a X-mas election was out of the picture, Layton became a patsy for the CPC. As an elector that seriously considers the NDP, I am absolutely disgusted with Layton and I feel it will bite him in the end. Consequently, the NDP and CPC will not make the gains that it did in Thrld and Wlnd and with Maloney dominating P.C., he will earn another tenure in Ottawa.
20 07 05 M. Lunn
I think John Maloney will be re-elected, although probably with less than 40%. The Conservatives are strong in the Southern areas only, while the NDP vote is largely concentrated in and around Thorold and the northern parts of the riding, while the liberal vote is spread evenly across the riding so they can win this one even if they lose the majority of the polls.
26 05 05 A.S.
Except as a token reflection of its provincial Kormos vs Hudak representation, the N/S, NDP/Tory thing is but an illusion. In fact, the only true CPC stronghold in the S is the rural rump of Wainfleet Twp, which is really more like Niagara W-Glanbrook's "one that got away"; and that's counterbalanced in the N by the affluent escarpmentside polls of St. Kitts, Thorold's rural buffer, etc. And if Pt Colborne's "non-NDP", it's more for lack of experience; given its druthers, if PoCo knew it was in a seat where the NDP had a chance, it'd rather swing leftward than rightward (and now that it's Kormos Kountry for the first time, it'll do so, provincially, in 2007, I guarantee it). Of course, there's no *federal* record of electing Dippers in Welland; indeed, the pre-1993 federal pattern scarcely hinted at the scale of Mel Swart's provincial NDP powerhouse. However, the notional deposit-level tally of 2000 and the surprisingly strong (at least to Laytonian champagne-socialist city-slickers) 2nd place in 2004 indicates that finally, after years of deferring to the usual Tory/Liberal battles, the NDP's traditional provincial overperformance is translating itself federally. So far, only in relative terms, but one never knows. If they win here (still far from a certainty; indeed, the status quo of another John Maloney victory against a 2-way remains more likely), look to the party's having at least 19 seats in *Ontario*, never mind Canada.
23 05 05 JR
Those hoping for an NDP breakthrough here will be disappointed. Kormos has been strong here for a long time, but that is provincially. Cons need to run a fresh face (Grunstein has to be getting sick of losing by now) but it is not likely to help. Liberal hold in a spring '06 election.
21 05 05 R Foster
John Maloney has done a good job as a "constituency based" Member of Parliament -- when people go to him for help, he gets it done. The Liberal Party has been on a roller coaster, but the alternatives simply aren't realistic, certainly not the Conservatives. While it is true that there is a NDP flavour to the Welland area, Port Colborne and area has tended to be Liberal. So, a re-elected John Maloney.
21 05 05 Bear and Ape
We cannot fathom why this is put in the "Liberal win" column. Looking at the numbers it seems clear to us that all three parties have a shot at taking this one. If there is enough disgust at the Liberals voters will turn away from them, with the north part of the riding voting NDP, while the south would vote Conservative. This split could allow the lIberals to come up the middle, or any of the other two parties to come up the middle (depending how the vote goes). Last election should have shown that in the Niagara region there are no safe Liberal seats. Unless the political climate changes drastically, this will be a close race.
16 05 05 Craig
One of the "forgotten" epic battles overshadowed by Niagara Falls and St. Catharines, this riding appears headed for a 3-way race. With Peter Kormos in toe provincially and a very strong labour presence, the NDP appear to have a slight edge over the Conservatives and Liberals and may be able to defeat John Maloney. The Conservatives should also make gains on the social issues and AdScam, however the labour unions will slow them down. The polls will be the guide, however, as a change in momentum could drive this riding either way, however Hamilton-Niagara appears to be shifting away from the Liberals towards the NDP and Conservatives, and this one is the orange seat in Niagara. Predicted results: NDP 33%, LIB 30%, CPC 30%, GRN 4%, others 3%.
10 05 05
Normaly I would think Maloney would win easily - But I think that he might be in trouble here. If the NDP gain some momentum behind Jack - they have a great chance of a pickup here. Maloney is one of those long serving - going nowhere fast backbenchers. Interestingly - If maloney goes down here - the Liberals Might be wiped out of Niagara (With Lastewka not looking safe in St.Catharines)
10 05 05 interalia
The NDP ran a non-existent campaign last election- even Mel Swart complained about it. Nonetheless they came within striking distance. If they run the same candidate they're probably sunk but if they run someone like Cindy Forster they're back in the race.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
This is not a safe liberal riding. The NDP is strong in the Northern and central parts of the riding, while the Conservative vote is mainly concentrated in the Southern portion. The NDP certainly has a chance at winning here, while if the liberals and NDP split the vote, the Conservatives could come up the middle and pull off a surprise victory. I would give the liberals the best chance, followed by the NDP, and then the Conservatives.
04 05 05 Nick
With the NDP at 20% in the polls and their historical ties to this part of the region, the NDP look like they're in a good position to steal Welland from the Liberals. They did extremely well last time around, and I only see them doing better.

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