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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Canadian Action
Tom Cochrane
Jim Flaherty
Marty Gobin
Ajay Krishnan
Judi Longfield
Maret Sadem-Thompson

Hon. Judi Longfield

2004 Result/Résultats:
Judi Longfield
Ian MacNeil
Maret Sadem-Thompson
Michael MacDonald

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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13 01 06 QM
Mr Flaherty has a lot of skeletons in his closet like his endorsement of Rondo Thomas who is just an extremist and his broken promises on the Whitby Hospital and Lynde Marsh. Numbers are coming back nation wide and in Ontario, I'm still calling for Judi Longfield to win this one (in a squeeker)
12 01 06 M.T.
When I called this for Flaherty about six weeks ago, I was assuming that the Liberals were comfortably in front in the Ontario polls. My guess was that with Jim's provincial record, that the Conservatives could take it federally, even if the Liberals still won the election. By this point, with some people beginning to discuss a Conservative majority, I think that races like this are essentially over. The Liberals have shifted their focus to their "safe" ridings.
12 01 05 Student Slacker
Voters in Whitby-Oshawa are smarter than you think. If Stephen Harper becomes Prime Minister, there's a very good chance that Jim Flaherty becomes the Finance Minister. He'd be the only member of the government caucus to ever deliver a budget and he did it in the biggest province in Canada. People in this riding like the idea of having their MP as the second most powerful member of the federal government and will send Flaherty to Ottawa. Longfield offers nothing to voters in this riding other than more of the same. A nobody backbencher who this time could be on the opposition banches.
03 01 06 love, sydney
Quite a surprising battle between Longfield and Flaherty. I'd be tipping it to the Tories with the campaign they've run to date and the profile of their candidate... not to mention the Grit 'issues'. However, with the Liberals betting heavy on the Harris card as one of their main tactics entering the new year, this could create a minor backlash to the Tory surge and saving a handful of 905 (and a few Toronto from the NDP) ridings. Interesting strategy. Flaherty has to blend softly behind Harper's soft sell message now...
02 01 06 Jon P
QM seems to be under the impression that only white collar workders can live in large suburban homes, but that runs contrary to what I see in my neighbourhood. There are many blue-collar workers, some from GM but others in trades and especially those related to building.
It's not just about being blue-collar, there's a very small-c conservative attitude here that runs through this community, and I don't think Harper will be a liability here in the least. And it's not like Longfield is a beacon of progressive liberalism, she's against same-sex marriage!
29 12 05 E.D.
I think that when election day comes, we will see a very, very close race between Judi and Jim. It is certainly an interesting race because Jim is a very popular politician in the riding and will receive a lot of votes based on his personal work as an MPP. Judi will receive a lot of votes because of the Liberal Party and Paul Martin. However, on election day, I see Jim pulling out the tight win that will come down to the campaign teams and getting out the vote. This win will not be handed to him and having known Jim for a couple of years, he will work hard and win, continuing his service of elected public office.
28 12 05 QM
Wow, recent postings certainly look positive for Mr. Flaherty, I wish I could agree with the recent consensus.
Firstly, the Oshawa part of the riding is NOT a Conservative advantage, in 2004 the CPC average in the Oshawa polls was 2% lower than the overall CPC average, in fact the NDP support in that region of Oshawa was 7% higher than overall and is a more left leaning area, far from the advantage claimed by several other posted predictions.
Secondly, the "joe 6pack" and "blue collar joes" comments are a clear sign that the Toronto-centric CPC staffer who wrote them is completely out of touch with the reality of this riding. It is a very sophisticated voting population and the people will be able to see through Stephen Harper's messenger (Flaherty).
Lastly, to the people who have posted that the Liberal incumbent disappears in between elections is again clearly not from the area. Anyone who lives in the area knows that Ms. Longfield and her staff are the most helpful constituency staff possible, something that is not a strong suit of Mr. Flaherty and his staff.
My prediction for eday is a tighter race but still a comfortable Liberal win, Liberal 44%, CPC, 39%, NDP 12%, Other 5%
24 12 05 El Predicto
Flaherty. Period. Well liked in the riding and seen as hard working. A VERY experienced campaign team with him. Lots of connections - both in terms of money and influence.
19 12 05 Jon P
Our riding was featured on Focus Ontario on Global last Sunday, with a round-table between Flaherty, Longfield and Sadem-Thompson. Flaherty was the class of the group, he came off looking like the experience politician that he is, while Longfield had a hard time conveying her points. You would have guessed Flaherty was the incumbent, especially given his ability to reflect on his record when he was an Ontario MPP. More than ever this looks like a Conservative pick-up.
As for the Joe 6-pack comment, I didn't mean to suggest everyone in Whitby was a blue-collar worker, however they do make up more of the population than other more urban ridings. I was really trying to convey that while Harper's moral stance on social issues is a liability in most of Toronto, it shouldn't pose a problem in Whitby-Oshawa.
19 12 05 The Mongoose
Adding to what recent posters have commented on, it's worth noting that "Joe 6-pack" still votes for Flaherty in pretty decent numbers in the Eastern GTA. Flaherty's personal popularity, the advantageous redistricting of this riding, and the relative strength of the Conservative campaign thus far will give Flaherty this riding without too much sweating on election night.
Flaherty by 3,000-4,000 votes, barring a national Conservative collapse.
18 12 05 Brendan Barker
Jim Flaherty was so popular in this riding that he survived the Liberal wave of the 03 Provincial election here. He has cabinet material written all over him, with a long history in the riding. There is no doubt in my mind that he will win here, I don't know why it is still under too close to call.
16 12 05 CWM
Joe 6-pack country? Maybe 5 years ago. This area has really been developed and mostly with middle to high income families. North Whitby and North Oshawa in my estimation has attracted predominantly Conservative new home owners. I predict a Conservative landslide - no 2 horse race here.
16 12 05 Steve G
Not sure when the "extreme right" label became attached to Jim Flaherty but in any case, if anybody in Whitby-Oshawa actually believed this to be the case, they would have tossed Jim out in the 2003 provincial election in the Liberal sweep. He should win this riding (handily, but certainly not in a landslide) and will become the Conservative MP whose seat is closest to the inner-GTA Liberal fortress.
12 12 05 Jon P
David is having trouble separating what he wishes would happen from what is in the realm of possibility. The NDP have absolutely no chance in Whitby-Oshawa, most of this riding is in the Whitby portion which has historically and consistently voted for the Conservatives and Liberals, while relegating the NDP to obscurity.
Signs are coming up now, Flaherty has taken an early lawn sign lead. His local profile will give him the edge over Longfield, who is almost invisible outside of election time. It's going to be a squeaker, but make no mistake - this is a TWO horse race. I give the nod to Flaherty, this is Joe 6-pack country and I don't think our residents are as worried about Harper as more urban areas in the GTA.
07 12 05 David
One might assume that this is a battle between only right wingers - the "anti gay marriage" Longfield against the "extreme right-wing" Flaherty. But it is precisely that battle that makes this a winable riding for Sadem-Thompson on her second attempt.
02 12 05 M T
Flaherty's status as MPP and former provincial cabinet minister means that this election is really a battle of titans. The choice is essentially up to people who have voted Ontario PC but Federal Tory, but considering that other ridings in the area have already gone Federal PC, I think that with Flaherty's name recognition - and barring a major dive in the polls for the CPCs - this riding will be painted blue. Flaherty certainly has more name recognition outside of the riding...
29 11 05 Scott
This one might be close but should be another Flaherty win. He loses the worse part of his old Whitby-Ajax riding and picks up the very Tory friendly part of Oshawa
11 11 05 Canukster
BB makes some very good points. This is going to be a close race. Longfield will be fighting for her life on this one. The best thing she has going for her is Harper – the public’s consistent dislike of this Stepford candidate may turn out to be her lifesaver! She must be panicking trying to make up for time NOT spent focusing on raising her profile in her riding. This may have been a strategic misstep on her part, as the profile of the town has changed and she can’t count on the old guard carrying the same clout they used to. Flaherty’s presence is so pronounced at every town function, especially family-focused events, that you can’t turn around without bumping into him. He’s making his mark on the ‘new’ Whitby that is filled with families with young children. Judy may squeak this one out, but if she does, she should get her transition strategy underway because she will have reached the end of her MP road and she could make her exit with dignity.
22 10 05 BB
Seems to me that Flaherty has a good chance of winning this riding. I’m not a Tory supporter or even a Flaherty fan. I do happen to know all the players and can see flaherty pull this one off. I do see one problem on the horizon for flaherty.. he needs a strong NDP campaign to pull votes from longfield.
It's not surprising that mcneil pulled a lot of votes in the oshawa component of the riding. This was the section where the NDP traditionally fared poorly in oshawa even under broadbent.
I disagree with the comments that flaherty will help carrie.. in fact this is bad news for carrie campaign team.. who will lose many many volunteers to the high-profile flaherty campaign. Flaherty will be up to his eyeballs trying to win this .. so he wont be looking to help carrie.
Longfield will not go down without a serious fight...should be fun to watch this one unfold.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
Jim Flaherty may have won this last provincial election, but lets remember Ernie Eves was not nearly as unpopular as Stephen Harper is in Ontario. There were many who disliked Mike Harris and Ernie Eves, but even more dislike Stephen Harper. His decision to run will likely narrow the gap, but I would still give the edge to Judi Longfield. Besides he is more likely a liability than asset to the party as a whole since he is viewed by too many as a right wing ideologue. The main reason he jumped into federal politics is not because he was positive he could win this riding, but because his right wing views are more in-line with Stephen Harper's as opposed to John Tory's more moderate stances.
06 08 05 A.S.
After several heartbreaking Reform/Alliance/Conservative tries at translating Jim Flaherty's provincial clout into the federal sphere, the Whitby-Oshawa Tories are now pressing the GM pedal to the metal with Flaherty himself--and it wouldn't entirely surprise to see the dead weight of Stephen Harper cock *this* one up, too, just like John Turner's dead weight cocked up Albert Roy's supposed sure-bet provincial-to-federal Liberal jump in Ottawa-Carleton in 1984. On the positive side, Flaherty in winning might collaterally cinch Colin Carrie's Tory hold in ultra-ultra-marginal Oshawa--interestingly, Ian MacNeil was more efficient at winning polls in the Oshawa part of the riding than in Whitby in '04. And while the name "Oshawa" might suggest NDP wild-card-dom, the Dippers lost their deposit last time with a candidate whose name looks like Marat/Sade, and the sheer presence of Jim Flaherty almost certainly alludes to even more of a Lib-Tory polarized electorate this time...
26 05 05 Hubba Bubba
Its too hard to say. Jim Flaherty's popularity has dropped significantly in his own riding over the years. In last summers PC leadership, his vote in his own riding was down close to 20 percent.
Ernie Eves managed 3 percent in the riding, John Tory for 12.
Jim should win, but he just has to be careful not to actually talk to anyone. That might sway things against him.
19 05 05 QM
First of all, to MJL. Please get your facts right, Jim Falherty only got 48.36% of the vote in Whitby-Ajax in 2003, 10% below what you have posted. Secondly to Harry Hayfield, huh??? I think you might have posted to the wrong riding. Mr. Flaherty is more concerned with his own political ambitions than with representing his constituents.
16 05 05 pundit 2005
This is Flaherty country. Within hours of his announcement, Longfield went into full panic mode and pried monies out of Martin for the Oshawa Harbour even though it was not in her riding. She had stalled harbour advocates for months, some would say years, and then all of a sudden, the floodgates opened a litte.
16 05 05 Steve G
Hmm JC, I really don't think Flaherty's record is going to be a problem here considering he easily won this very same riding provincially in 2003 against the Liberal tide of change. He is a very strong politician and personally popular here, and he will send Judi Longfield packing. Big 905 gain for the Tories, CPC 45% Lib 33%
12 05 05 Harry Hayfield
This is a must win riding for the Liberals. Requiring a swing of 1.37%, if Canada swung uniformly at the same rate this riding would give Mr. Martin a majority in Parliament, but it's complicated by the fact that this is a three way marginal and either the Liberals or the NDP could win the riding. It could all rest on the 4% of voters who voted Green in 2004. Could they split in favour of the NDP and cause an upset in their 5th national target riding?
12 05 05 Nick Boragina
Flaherty is running here for the tories. Like Clement, he's a recent and previous leadership contestant loser. Unlike Clement, he finished well in his leadership bids, and he won his riding the last two times. He should have the personal popularity enough to win easily here. Remember, in the Ontario PC leadership race, only he remained in his hometown, while the other two candidates were at the general assembly.
11 05 05 drumlin hill
Judi will face a tough battle, but will come out on top again. She is a big voice in caucus for the auto industry, and the feds invested some serious cash in GM's Oshawa plant. The local economy thrives when GM's fortunes do...and with Judi's hard work, so do the Liberals.
11 05 05 MJL
JC, so what exactly was going on when 58% of the inhabitants of this riding (well its predecessor) voted for Flaherty in the 2003 Provincial Election? Were they voting for the "great" PC election campaign? For Ernie Eves' tremendous leadership? No - this riding likes Jim, for all his rough edges (perhaps because of them). Flaherty is a very likely cabinet minister in any Conservative minority government - which will be desperate for people with experience in government.
04 05 05
Tough race - tough call. Ontario is looking stronger by the day for the Liberals, especially in the 905, but Flaherty is a strong name and this isn't the best 905 riding. In a tight race, I see him narrowly edging Judi out.
26 04 05 JC
Jim Flaherty has decided to run for the CPC in this area and this is a great thing for them, But it might be a great thing for the Liberals. Flaherty's record in the Ontario Legislature will be brought up over and over. This will probably be the closest race in Ontario, Judi Longfield by a hair.
30 10 05 ML
As much as I dislike Flaherty and his Ontario PC record, he should be able to pull this riding off. He wouldn't put his political career in jeopardy by resigning his provincial seat if he didn't think he could win federally. For some strange reason, he is generally well liked in Whitby and should walk away with this one.
04 05 05 Nick
If anything, Jim Flaherty will be a bonus for the Tories, as all three ridings in the area that make up the new Whitby-Oshawa riding (Oshawa, Durham and Whitby-Ajax) elected Tory MPPs during McGunity's sweep to power, and both the redistrubed Oshawa and redistrubed Durham have Tory MPs at the federal level as well. I do agree that it will be close, but Flaherty will give the Tories the edge they need to win this riding.
03 05 05 Not Non-Partisan
Jim Flaherty's record at Queen's Park is a huge advantage. In fact, the fact that he has a record and Judi Who doesn't will result in a win for the Tories.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
This should be a close one. Jim Flaherty and his staunch support for the Common Sense Revolution will likely hurt the Conservatives elsewhere in Ontario, but not here considering he won this riding last provincial election. The liberals won this by nine points, were 14 points ahead in Ontario while now currently 6 points meaning if they can increase their lead, Judi Longfield will hold the riding, but if they fall back into a neck and neck race with the Tories, Jim Flaherty will be elected. At least Jim Flaherty's decision to run is good news for John Tory since the fewer people has leftover from the Harris government, the better his chances are of defeating Dalton McGuinty in 2007 since he can claim he is Bill Davis Tory as opposed to a Mike Harris Tory.
02 05 05 Brandon
Jim Flaherty wins Whitby. When Ernie Eves' government was driven out of office, Flaherty (former Finance Minister, PC leadership contender) won this riding by 5,000 votes (8%) over the Liberals, which was the highest margin for an urban seat the Tories kept. Whitby loves Jim and will crown him the new MP. Judi Longfield is just warming his thrown.

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