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12:09 AM 06/05/2005
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Laura Chesnik
Joe Comartin
Bruck Easton
Rick Fuschi
Catherine Pluard

Joe Comartin

2004 Result/Résultats:
Joe Comartin
Rick Limoges
Rick Fuschi
Élizabeth Powles
Laura Chesnik

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17 01 06 Bear and Ape
Very interesting article, thank you for bringing it to our attention. The only problem is, with the exception of that one sentence you quoted, the article said absolutly nothing about the riding (let alone Windsor West which was not even given once sentence). That article was about Essex, Chatam-Kent-Essex and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, which we can all agree are certainly all going CPC. One sentence does not qualify as media exposure.
Now let's discuss that sentence. What we are about to mention is something we have seen in many newspapers, on TV and on websites and is soemthing we should all we aware of. The media likes to make big claims based on surface facts and does not dig deeper (it sells more papers). In this case we ask, "What sources does the Ottawa Citizen have to make such a claim that it is widely viewed as a two horse race?" That article had no poll numbers for this riding and no facts to back up that statement. Were the people widely viewing this as a two-man race, Jeff Watson and friends who were jeering at Paul Martin on TV in the bar? Was it the same people who are now predicting the CPC taking 6-8 seats in Quebec? The same ones who claim 15-18 Tory seats out of 38 seats in the GTA? One sentence without any supporting evidence is little more than a worthless statement. This is something all Canadians (and people in all democracies where there is a free press) to be aware of; media claims need to be substantiated.
17 01 06 Full Name
From Monday, January 16th Ottawa Citizen:
One measure of the Tory surge is that even in urban Windsor-Tecumseh, a former Liberal stronghold where Tories have never done well, the race is now widely seen as being between New Democrat incumbent Joe Comartin and Conservative Rick Fuschi.

Does this cut if for media exposure? Methinks the permanently archived B&A insistence on NDP domination here will come back to haunt them.
16 01 06 Bear and Ape
Colin has made some great points about Liberal turn around and vote shifting, we agree with him on these points. The Liberals are stealing from the NDP and the CPC is stealing from the Liberals but here is something we've heard (and this is anecdotal), is CPC voters going NDP to block the Liberals! We know several people who are claiming to do that. So yes, we agree that there is some vote shifting going on, but probably not enough to change the final outcome of an NDP win. As for Fuschi's lawn sign count in 2004, we disagree. The homes in Forest Glade and Tecumseh that had them in 2004 have them again. They were just as visible then as they are now.
16 01 06 One Less
I think the commentary around RC's and other voting against Comartin because of his SSM vote is pretty insulting and immature in its analysis. It has never been true that RC's vote as a block on this or any other issue, at least in Ontario. That said, at this point of traditional Lib voters being greatly disaffected (like me), the fact that Joe, a dedicated member of a shrinking RC community, was virtually cast out by the Bishop in fact makes him more appealing. While Fuschi has some appeal, I can't fashion not standing behind Joe after he was booted from his religion (and mine) for an issue that most moderate people don't really care two bits about. I will hold my nose and vote for Joe, because I can't, in any reasoned way, not stand behind his courage. Don't underestimate that sentiment in dissafected Libs.
13 01 06 Colin
I think that we are going to see some major changes in Windsor-Tecumseh vote totals. In all honesty, I think Comartin has it for the time being. However, the Liberals seem to have pulled a miraculous turn-about in this riding. This may, however, be very misleading. There is some major vote-shifting going on. Just stay with me for a minute here... You have a great number of voters here who are switching from the NDP to the Liberals as the Conservative numbers rise nationally. While at first glance it may seem as though the Liberals could win this riding back, you also have a great number of right-minded Liberal voters who have switched from the Liberals to the Conservatives. The question is, how much shifting is actually happening? Lawn signs are never an accurate predictor of vote totals, especially in W-T. Based on lawn signs alone last election, Fuschi should never have been a factor. That is to say that if there were enough Comartin lawn signs to suggest that he would garner 20,000 votes (which there were), the amount of Conservative signs certainly did not point to 10,000 votes for Fuschi. This election, while there are indeed many Comartin and Easton signs, there are also many more Fuschi signs than last time around. Stay tuned... Prediction: Comartin has it for now, but, as last election showed, a lot can happen in the last week. If the Conservative numbers stabilize or even continue to increase, this WILL be a three-way race, and it will shock many.
12 01 06 Bear and Ape
As we wait with baited breath for that "upcoming national media attention and poll numbers specific to this riding", claimed 4 weeks ago or so we made some unscientific sign count observations. Conservative lawn signs are there, but they appear to be at the same homes that had them in 2004. NDP signs are far more numerous but not as much as in 2004. Surprisingly the Liberal signs seem to be more popular than in 2004. It does appear that they are stealing votes (or at least lawn sign positions) from the NDP. We all know that lawn signs are not good indicators, but it seemed like a fun fact to mention. As for our continued NDP prediction, we're not going to flog a dead horse.
11 01 06 SW
Who REALLY believes the Conservatives will offer Comartin any competition? What's really telling here is not a single prediction so far for the Liberals, who were his only competition last time (yet he still won by a comfortable margin).
18 12 05 Nick Kouvalis
Can the CPC win in Windsor Tecumseh in this election? Yes. Keep an eye on upcoming national media attention and poll numbers specific to this riding being released.
17 12 05 James
The Conservatives have no chance at claiming this riding from the NDP any time soon. With Bruck Easton running for the Liberals, he will take his core supporters from the Conservatives and carry them over the Liberals. At the same time, those people who are on the left fringe of the Liberals and are too worried about voting for Bruck Easton because he came from a right-wing party will jump to the NDP.
Howard McCurdy has little to no influence in politics anymore. It's known, publicly, that the only reason he's supporting the Liberals is because he lost the NDP nomination against Arlene Rousseau so many years back.
As for Ken Lewenza supporting the Liberals in this riding...that's the farthest thing from the truth. Ken Lewenza has come out publicly to fully endorse Joe Comartin and Brian Masse in their respective ridings. Buzz is on his own and he's better off that way.
Either way, Joe Comartin beat a good quality Liberal candidate by nearly 4000 votes last time and there's no doubt he'll hold his own again in this election. I predict an NDP victory, followed by the Liberals, with the Conservatives chugging along in third like always.
14 12 05 M. Lunn
As for Bruck Easton attacking the Tories, this probably has more to do with the fact that many former PCs including myself are rightfully angry at the Reform/Alliance were taking over the old PCs. He has every right to go after the people who took over his party. Besides he knows the NDP will likely hold its vote, so in order to win, he is hoping to pick up enough of the moderate Tories to defeat the NDP. Probably won't work, but I think that is the reason for it.
12 12 05 SDC
This is the riding I grew up in. I remember the races as far back as Mark McGuigan vs. John Moynihan. This riding has always been left of centre, ie a race between Liberal and New Democrats. The NDP finally made a breakthrough in 1984 because the Tories ran a credible candidate - local Alderman Tom Porter and the Mulroney national campaign was strong. This allowed Howard McCurdy to win by just holding the usual NDP vote versus a lacklustre Liberal candidate and campaign.
The NDP will hold again if the Conservatives do well here and nationally. The mix-up with Bruck Easton running from the Tories to the Grits is interesting but will ultimately be a footnote. Fuschi may even poll second in this race. Comartin will hold the seat.
12 12 05 BBS
For '30 year tecumseh resident' - Rick has run exactly twice. Once in a Windsor-West by-election as an Alliance Candidate and last year as the CPC candidate in Windsor-Tecumseh. He has never run provincially. How many times did Joe Comartin lose before he won the seat? I believe the correct answer is 2.
12 12 05 Bear and Ape
Since we drive regularly in this riding, and as of late particularly in (more conservative) Tecumseh, we've noticed the signs on lawns. Yes Fuschi had his signs up first, but these also happened to be the houses that had his signs on the lawns in 2004. It's likely they just kept them from the previous election. We drove Manning road (again in Tecumseh)last night, where we first saw Fuschi signs after the writ was dropped. As of now, Comartin signs are more numerous than Fuschi signs. As for Easton signs, they are nowhere to be found (perhaps they are still in press). Now we all know that signs as an indicator mean absolutly didilly! The best example to this took place in 2004, in the neighbouring riding of Windsor West, where along Dominion Road you often see signs for all three candidates on the same lawn! So lawn signs are at best anecdotal. As for Easton attacking Fuschi, Easton and Fuschi are fighting for the blue Liberal/Red Tory vote, so Easton needs to erode the alomst 10K vote Fuschi got in 2004. It's Easton's best bet to win. Comartin still has most of the inner city voting for him (the bulk of the riding, his job is getting people out to vote. Despite that, Comartin did get OVER TWICE as many votes as Fuschi did in 2004, so lets stop with these silly CPC predcitions.
12 12 05 Austin
"Full Name" may be stretching to predict a Conservative victory, but if signs are any indication Rick Fuschi has much stronger support than last time. I think the Tories have gained ground in this riding and the final result may be too close to call.
10 12 05 Full Name
If the sign war is of any indication, I'd have to say that the Fuschi campaign, while still facing an uphill battle, have far more strength here than what is being posted by the regular contributors.
I have lived in the riding all of my life and have never seen this level of support for the Conservatives. Former PC Easton has been viciously attacking the Conservatives, far more than the NDP incumbent, leading me to believe that internal polling shows a dead heat. His attacks won't wash too much; anyone who didn't like the merger left, like Easton, before the last election, and having the heavily publicized endorsement of former NDP MP Howard McCurdy is certainly going to give pause to the swing blue grit/red tory voters who may be on the bubble.
I'm not sure what to make of Buzz Hargrove trying to defeat the one member of his own union in parliament, Jeff Watson, down in Essex, and Lewenza endorsing Martin on the front page of the Star, but I'm sure that the guys at Chrysler aren't too thrilled with the backstabbing of their former lawyer Joe Comartin either.
I predict a close NDP/Conservative race here for the first time ever, with the Conservatives eking out a narrow victory.
07 12 05 JT
I don't think Joe Comartin has anything to worry about here. Keep in mind he won this in 2000 a time where the NDP were barely polling in the double digits in Ontario. Not to mention the candidate the Grits are running has been trounced already and may even finish third to the Tories.
01 12 05 C B
Yes, the parishoners at Comartin's church definitely did stand behind him, however, there were many Catholic voters who were upset with his vote on SSM. He does not have the level of support that many would like to think that he has. It is apparent where this poster's loyalties lie as the attitude of many CAW members is that if you are a CAW member, you are only a good CAW member if you vote NDP. I know many CAW members who are pressured to vote NDP and would never cast their vote in that direction. Windsor-Tecumseh may surprise this poster on election night when the results come in. Comartin is NOT guaranteed.
30 11 05 30 year tecumseh resident
Rick Fuschi has never came close to winning an election and he will place third again in this riding.Rick has ran in many federal and provincial elections only to have poor showings. For those of you who say Joe has not been prominent in this riding should give your head a shake. Both he and Brian have played big roles on border issues as well Joe received substantial support from his fellow parishioners at his church for making the stand he did. Rick Fushci being an autoworker and CAW member means nothing! Joe is ten times a CAW member Rick could ever dream of being....Joe may be a lawyer but remember he was a CAW lawyer for many years before being elected as MP. Bruck Easton is another who has run for many elections only to be beaten badly....he may finish higher then his usual third place since he is a Liberal now. But look for joe to take a substantial amount of Liberal votes from last election leading him to take the seat by 5 to 10 thousand votes.
29 11 05 Bear and Ape
CB, the results in neighbouring ridings are really not all that surprising. Windsor West had the Herb Grey effect, who got votes for people that would now support either the Liberals or the NDP. This explains the Alliance showing in 2000. As for Essex, you know as well as we do that it is rural where as Windsor West and Windsor Tecumseh is urban. The CPC victory in Essex is just a common trend that was seen throughout rural Ontario (shift away from the Liberals to the CPC). So you see the Windsor area votes are not that unusual and that is going to be true in Windsor-Tecumseh, where the new battle (and it IS a battle now) will be between Comartin and the star Liberal candidate. Easton will take away from both the NDP and the CPC, but we feel more so from the CPC as he is obviously a blue Liberal at best. We think it'll be an NDP squeeker, but a much more interesting race.
25 11 05 C B
I would not be so quick to predict the outcome in Windsor-Tecumseh. Being from Windsor, it is obvious that Windsor has had some very interesting election results in the past several elections. Windsor at one time was fairly predictable. Herb Gray was always a shoo-in in Windsor West and the other area ridings delivered both Liberal and NDP victories. Looking back at the last several elections in all of the ridings, Windsor seems to be less and less sure of who they want to support. The riding of Essex, for example was held by the NDP leading up to the 1993 election, went solidly Liberal for over ten years and then delivered a somewhat surprising victory to the Conservatives in 2004. No one in this area would have thought ten years ago that a Conservative could win in Essex County. Windsor West gave a fairly strong second place to the Alliance in 2000 and then swung NDP in the by-election that saw Brian Masse elected after Herb Gray retired. Windsor-Tecumseh has always been seen as a two-way fight between the Liberals and the NDP. The Conservatives, however, ran a strong third in 2004. With Bruck Easton running for the Liberals (who don't have the support base they once used to in Windsor) and Joe Comartin having angered many voters, there could very well be a three-way race in W-T. The NDP WILL bleed some support back to the Liberals and the Liberals WILL bleed some support to the Conservatives here. This could allow the Conservatives to sneak up the middle, Comartin be reelected or Bruck Easton win for the first time. Parties can't count on the vote of one ethnic community or turn out en masse by union members in their support. One thing is for sure, no riding in the Windsor area is a sure bet for anyone anymore and Essex and Windsor West demonstrate that.
24 11 05 Steve
Joe Comartin has been rather non-existant in this riding for sometime now. It seemed that for a while the only press he was getting was the SSM vote and it seemed pretty negative for Joe.
Muslim Voters, Seikh's, and Roman Catholic (big part of his campaign team were members of the Knights of Columbus) were left with a bad taste in their mouths on SSM. This will hurt Joe in the coming campaign but I doubt that it would be enough to lose the election.
But I do think that many voters will become increasingly worried that the CPC may form the government and drift back to the Liberals to stop the 'scary conservatives'. This could bring Joe Comartin down enough in vote totals to make him quite vulnerable.
Bruck Easton (ex-PC President) is now the Candidate for the Liberals. He hopes to capitalize on the NDP voters coming back to the Liberals as well as pulling some Red Tories away from the Conservative Candidate.
Mr. Easton is a 4 time loser already and in my opinion if there were any Red Tories, they would have already left in the 2004 campaign.
Rick Fuschi got a surprising 10,000 votes in 2004. Like it or not there is something strange happening in this riding in the favour of the CPC. They have done a great job with the media and events for over a year now. I can tell you that many so called Red Tories have gone back to the CPC since 2004.
I still think the Comartin will win but it looks like a closer race and I would agree that it could wind up to being a 3 way race.
Voter Turnout, weather, and organization will play a big role in this riding.
23 11 05 M. Lunn
It looks like the former Progressive Conservative president Bruck Easton will be the Liberal candidate. This would be interesting if both him and his predecessor Peter Van Loan sat on opposite sides of the house. However, Joe Comartin has got this locked up since almost all polls show the NDP at or above what they got last election, so this will probably be Bruck Easton's best showing, but he still won't win it. At the very least this should stop all those silly claims that the Tories will win. If they can't even unite the two legacy parties, how does one expect them to pick up Liberal and NDP voters?
21 11 05 Bear and Ape
Wow Paul, talk about trying to twist what we said. Please re-read ALL of what we said, as well as the previous postings by others. Once you do, you will see that your personal attack makes little sense. We welcome attacks on our opinions provided that they are attacks on WHAT WE SAID.
In a nut shell:
1) We do not dispute your assessment that the NDP will win in Windsor-Tecumseh.
2) We never said that it was impossible for the CPC to win here (read the last paragraph of our posting).
3) The Harper and Republic-like CPC is a view shared by many Canadians and several other people who frequent this site (Conservatives and non-Conservatives alike). Look across this site and read the postings from common names.
4) We are two very different people with very different politcal views. We have never stated who we have voted for, or how we will vote this time, nor are we going to start. So please don't claim to know "where we are coming from"
5) Bear is well aware that Italians tend to vote Liberal, it even says so in our last posting.
6)Internal polls, we have found, tend to be painted a little rosier than what private polling firms tend to show. We don't dispute the CPC has a following, just that it is probably not as good as what you have been led to believe.
7) Your last statement, "but the point is it is NOT REASONABLE to believe that the CPC could win here." was that a typo, because it seems to contradict what you said earlier. Like we said, we believe the NDP will win this one. To strengthen this point...
8) Most recent polls (best to our knowledge, we were away this weekend and were too busy to follow the news) show the NDP up 5% national at the expense of the Liberals and the CPC unchanged.
So once again to reinterate our point, we believe the NDP will take this provided their strength in the polls remain. Feel free to dispute, argue, attack or debate our opinions, but make sure that it is what we said. READ THE POSTINGS CAREFULLY.
15 11 05 Paul
Bear and Ape states that:
"The Conservatives ALMOST won the riding in 1984. They never did win the riding and this was the election that Mulroney took 67 out of 96 seats in Ontario!"
And then goes on to states that because of that it is impossible for the Conservatives to win the riding.
Things do not ALWAYS work that way. Shefford in Quebec went Conservative in 1997 (one of only 20 ridings in all of the country) and it went LIBERAL in both 1984 and 1988.
Strange things may happen. Part of the point of this site is to try to discover what happens in individual ridings now, not what happened twenty years ago, anyone can check the results for themselves.
As for rants about "Harper and the Republican-style CPC", I don't know what you have been smoking, in any case it clearly shows where you are coming from.
Oh, and Bear, you are right in saying that it is false to claim "Italian-Canadians will automatically support an Italian candidate because of ethnicity". What they do automatically support is a LIBERAL candidate, except maybe for Mr. Fuschi's parents if they are still alive. Be offended if you want, Bear, but that's reality. I won't stop telling the truth just because it might offend someone. Even if that person is Italian.
By the way... at this point my guess is the NDP should keep the seat... but it will be much closer that what some Italian/Liberal types may believe. Already there is a three-way race developping. FACT : I know, thanks to some friends from the CPC, that their polls put them in third place with 30 percent of the vote. The NDP is first and the Liberals are only one point behind. They believe they will win, I don't... at least at this point... as I said, I expect the NDP to keep the riding, but the point is it is NOT REASONABLE to believe that the CPC could win here.
09 11 05 J-Dawg
Look at the 1984 results? COME ON bbs... while we're at it, why don't we look at the 1897 results, or the 1938 results? That was over twenty years ago. I know conservatives are resistant to change, but the population shifts over time, and this is one riding where the left has seized control.
25 10 05 Bear and Ape
Always fun to argue and dispel partisan rhetoric, especially when it seems the entire Fuschi campaign team is posting it, in the hopes that if it is written enough times people will believe it. Lets begin, shall we...
The Conservatives ALMOST won the riding in 1984. They never did win the riding and this was the election that Mulroney took 67 out of 96 seats in Ontario! That's 70% of the ridings, not the 24 out of 106 (or 22.6%) that they got in 2004. In addition the party was the PROGRESSIVE Conservative party and not the Republican-like party that is the CPC today. Lets look at numbers from post-Mulroney years, the politcal right has gone through some major changes in that time.
Okay, so approximatly 25% of this riding is the "Tecumseh" part (which is more conservative). That still leaves 75% of which is Windsor and Windsor is NOT conservative and never has (someone Fuschi campaigner can correct us if we are wrong, but we are not going back to check every parliament since confederation, we have neither the time, nor the inclination to do so, and we like to stick with reletivly recent events). However if one goes to these "rural" parts, one quickly realises that this is far more suburban like anything else. Everyone who frequents this sight should know how the CPC has done in suburban Ontario. Sorry guys, but Harper style conservatism still doesn't fly. Like it or not, people will more likely vote Liberal.
SSM; the only comment about that was that Muslum voters will turn in droves to the Conservatives because of that. Un-hunh, yeah. Ignoring the empty rhetoric that every ethnicity associated with strong religious views is suppose to go CPC (places like Mississauga, Brampton and parts of Vancouver seem to come to mind), why would Muslums vote CPC when that is the party that has very openly shown the most support for Israel and the United States? This annoys Muslums far more, don't count too much on their support.
As for the Italian support (BTW, Bear being of Italian descent finds it insulting that Italian-Canadians will automatically support an Italian candidate because of ethnicity), Windsor is not St. Leonard in Montreal. The Italian community here is very dilute in comparison. To assume Fuschi (which anyone can see is an Italian name, he needn't advertise it) will get that support, is to assume that someone will vote for a candidate because they have the same zodiac sign. But let's assume for a minute that Windsor's Italian community is as strong and close-knit as their conterparts in Montreal and Toronto. These communities have been voting Liberal since the 1940's and there really is no evidence of that changing anytime soon.
Now as to the downsizing at Ford and elsewhere. What has ANYONE done to fix it? Not much because it is a downturn in the auto industry which is evident globally. With gas prices as they are, that won't change soon either. Now let's look at it from a working man's perspective: vote Conservative (cut, cut, cut) or not conservative (spend, spend, spend). We're not sure about you, but a safety net is somethign we'd like to have if our jobs were precarious. The working class seldome votes Conservative, and with Layton getting high profile spending out of the Liberals for NDP support, it makes him look good, especially to the working class.
Now as for us making 100 random calls, that won't be happening as we don't care to get hung up on 100 times. But we are sure that if we were to be working for an opposition candidate, we'd hear plenty of complaints. The thing is, an unexpected phone call from someone who WANTS to hear your complaints, will get an emotional response. During an election, people have a long time to think long and hard as to who they will support, resulting in a more thought-out decision. Harper and the Republican-style CPC is not liked in urban Ontario. The polls STILL say that loud and clear. These polls actually say the CPC has gone down in Onatrio, the Liberals are up slightly and the NDP are more or less unchanged. What this means is a carbon-copy of the last election and the CPC knows it. They will focus on keeping the close races they won (such as Essex) and trying to win in WINNABLE ridings where the race was close last time, and sorry guys Windsor-Tecumseh just doesn't fit the bill. We'll conclude by giving you the benefit of the doubt; should fortunes for the NDP change for the worse and the CPC for the better, then the CPC has a chance. Never the less, in such a scenerio we'd predict a Liberal win, as that is far more likely than Conservative. Once again, let's try to keep this objective and non-partisan. LUNACY!
25 10 05 M. Lunn
For those arguing the Tories will win because of the suburban parts, I say nonsense. The liberals won most of the suburban polls and even in the neighbouring riding of Essex, Amherstberg, LaSalle and Lakeshore polls went mostly liberal. It was the rural part of Essex that allowed Jeff Watson to win. As for the Tories nearly winning this in 1984, may I remind them that Brian Mulroney got 50% of the popular vote nationally while Stephen Harper is polling between 25-30%. The Tories at best will pick up another 10 seats in Ontario, although I would actually guess they are more likely to lose rather than gain seats as each successive poll shows Stephen Harper is becoming less and less popular. Joe Comartin may not be the best MP, but Jack Layton is reasonably well-liked due to his willingness to work with the government rather than play games. Since it will likely be another liberal minority government, most residents would like to have someone either on the government side or playing a central role in propping up the government than sidelined on the opposition with no influence whatsoever. Finally, the former Progressive Conservative president and candidate in 1988, 1997, 2000, Bruck Easton endorsed the liberals. Besides, do those Tory posters live in the riding. I don't live in this riding, although I believe bear and ape do or least in the Windsor area and their predictions from past elections some more reliable.
24 10 05 A.S.
Sure, this seat has Tecumseh--but Windsor West can match that with the most conservative parts of Windsor *proper* (South Windsor/Roseland et al). (And a Franco-Catholic undercurrent renders even suburban Tecumseh inconsistently Conservative-conservative.) In fact, Tecumseh and all, W-T actually has the *stronger* Windsor-seat NDP history, federally and (especially) provincially--though the absence here of a Liberal stalwart such as Herb Gray may skew things a little. Well, actually, there *was* once a stalwart here the equal of Herb Gray--Paul Martin Sr. And maybe it's a little good faith in Sonny Boy that such history engendered, plus the fact that the Liberal running here had actually been an MP before (however briefly), that Joe Co, the senior Windsor Kneedipper in Ottawa and only Ontario party gain in '00, rather surprisingly fared *less* well in reelection than his byelected junior neighbour Brian Masse. He's still a fair bet for re-reelection; but he shouldn't take it for granted, esp. if the Grits are gunning for a majority once again.
17 10 05 BBS
A few points for M. Lunn and Bear and Ape:
1. Take a close look at the 1984 election results
2. Tecumseh, St. Clair Beach and Sandwich South make up over 24% of the polls, not just the 6% referred to by M. Lunn
3. contrary to Bear and Apes assertion, Joe Comartin has been extremely low profile in the riding since the last election, to the point of being non-existent. He has better coverage in the Hill Times and Ottawa Sun than the Windsor Star. Brian Masse is the high-profile NDP in the area
4. Bible Thumpers - please save that tired old saw for someone who might actually believe it anymore
5. Rick Fuschi is a 30 year CAW member, with a degree and business experience. He has been knocking on doors all summer long.
6. What have Joe and Brian been able to do about various down-sizings at Ford and other facilities? Nothing. Brian said he wrote a letter to the Minister of Industry and he was ignored. That is the extent of their influence.
7. Joe has never voted against his own party. He had an opportunity to leverage a solution on the border issue for his constituents, he decided to toe the party line and support the Liberals
Relying on anecdotal evidence and unfounded assumptions can be a very dangerous thing. Here's a thought. Trying phoning 100 residents of Windsor-Tecumseh at random. The results would probably be very suprising.
Am I biased? Absolutely, but at least I do it with the facts at hand. Bigger MPs than Joe have fallen in the past and will again in the future.
09 10 05 Full Name
This seat almost went Conservative in 1984. Check it - Porter lost to McCurdy by about 2000 votes.
A large rural portion was added to the riding.
Rick Fuschi is an autoworker and CAW member; Joe Comartin is a lawyer. Local autoworkers and those in the industry know that local jobs depend on good relations with the U.S. and are not as comfortable with Jack Layton's approach to NDP policies.
NDP representation has done diddly squat for the auto industry. There have been more cutbacks with them holding seats here than without.
Local conservative-minded people never thought their guy would stand a chance and voted strategically to keep either the Liberal or the NDP out. The Watson victory in Essex has changed the dynamic.
While it's a long shot, I wouldn't dismiss the Conservatives here.
09 10 05 M. Thundey
Get the facts straight. Tecumseh includes Tecumseh, St.Clair Beach and Sandwich South. That's 51 polls or 25% of the riding. The 58 polls that you would call Walkerville only had a 46% turnout last time around. Tecumseh's turnout was 58%. The CPC defeat the NDP in Tecumseh. The NDP will defeat the CPC in Walkerville. So all you have left is:
Forest Glade - 20 polls
Fountain Blue - 20 polls
East - 20 polls
Riverside - 46 Polls
The CPC will win Riverside and tie in Forest Glade and Fountain Blue. The NDP will win the East part of Windsor.
Joe has been totally invisible in this riding. He doesn't even seem like he wants to run again. Fuschi has been out at the events, knocking on doors, on the radio and in the paper. 5000 Muslims voted for Joe last time. Not this time and it IS because of SSM that they will not vote in block. Joe will lose 2000 of these votes.
Fuschi is Italian and this time around he has had over 1 year to let it be known that he is Italian. He has been out at the various Italian clubs and the word is out.
Comartin had 1 chance to make his vote count for Windsor Tecumseh and he blew it -and the CPC is letting it be known. The working man watching his job go out of the country is tieing that to the lack of infrastructure and High taxes. If they want a real voice in the governing party then they should consider the CPC.
Don't forget how many Conservatives vote for the NDP just to ensure that the Liberlas do not win. This time these strategic voters will come back to the Conservative Party if they think they have a chance and obviously some folks do think that they will have a chance.
Fuschi spent 36,000 last time around. This time they have already spent that in the pre-writ. They have a campaign team, a plan, lots of money and a candidate who has been runnig hard for months. Don't discount this riding.
They also said that Essex was not winnable for the CPC.
04 10 05 M. Lunn
This will definitely not go Conservative. Tecumseh only makes up 6% of the riding so even if the Conservatives do well there, they won't do well in Windsor. As for the comparison to Oshawa, Windsor is a very different city in term's of its political make-up. Oshawa has gone PC provincially for the last three elections, while Windsor has been one of the worst areas in the province for the provincial PCs. If the NDP were to lose this seat, it would be to the liberals, not the Conservatives. Saying Oshawa will vote the same way as Windsor due to having a similar industry is like saying Halifax and St. John's will vote the same way or Edmonton and Calgary will vote the same way which is obviously not the case. The liberals will want to win one seat back in the Windsor area since I don't think they have ever been shut out of the Windsor area so they will probably focus on Essex, which is the one they are most likely to re-gain. Likewise the Conservatives know they have zero chance at taking either Windsor riding so they will focus on Essex, which is not 100% safe at this moment.
03 10 05 Bear and Ape
LUNACY! Pure and utter lunacy to think the Conservatives could win here. Besides the fact the Conservatives numbers have tanked in Ontario while the NDP have remained strong, Comartin is VERY visible in Windsor. Do you think that a city where the CAW holds so much sway, would allow Joe to go down? Do you think that when economic times are tough in an industrial city (more layoffs at Ford have been announced) that they would elect a Conservative? SSM, though not popular in Windsor is not an issue. Gays are out of sight and out of mind and frankly no one really cares when they are more important bread and butter issues like making sure the unemployment checks are not cut. Maybe the bible thumpers out in Essex county will get their feathers ruffled by SSM, but Windsorites do not vote on social issues. Most of all, do not mistake Windsor for Oshawa. Oshawa is in the GTA and is becoming more and more like the rest of the 905 and less like the industrial auto-town that it was. Windsor still is that industrial auto-town without the effect of being swallowed by an encroaching suburbia. Threeway race in Windsor? Dream On!
18 09 05 Full Name
This has the potential to be the biggest upset in the country.
Joe Comartin is a very likeable person, and is very respectful and intelligent. He is also quite partisan and has never deviated from the NDP party line.
In doing so, he wasted the most leverage he will ever have in his career as an NDP MP at budget time by sitting on his hands and propping up the Liberals instead of extracting local concessions, such as clear action on the border. He has never, to my knowledge, come out and supported a solution to the border issue, prefering to straddle the fence and opposing every proposal. I seem to recall his support for Schwartz, but not sure if that includes the destruction of Ojibway Park & Prairie that is conveniently dismissed as being solveable by engineering.
Comartin's stance on Same-Sex Marriage may be detrimental as well, and was a major issue during polling earlier this year. Add to that his invisibility in the community, and his proven inability to deliver any goods to the community whatsoever beyond good intentions, coupled with a strong local Conservative campaign, a devoted candidate who appears to have been the only one knocking on doors this summer, and the possible end to strategic anti-Liberal or anti-NDP voting by Conservative voters.
I believe this riding will rival Oshawa as one of the closest three-way races in the next few elections, which will make this a fascinating riding to watch in the future.
16 05 05 Bear and Ape
Joe Comartin is quite safe here and will likely win with a larger margin. Rick Limoges is not running this time, and he was the only reason why this race was somewhat close last time. Unlike in neighbouring Windsor West, the NDP won't run away with this riding, since it contains the city of Tecumseh, which is suburban/rural and more "conservative" that the city of Windsor. (please, lets not have any fools predicting CPC wins here, the Windsor portion dominates the riding and will safely vote NDP).
11 05 05 Craig
Joe Comartin has gone from a narrow squeaker in 2000 to a decisive win in 2004. This time I expect it will be a blowout win, as the unions stand tall with the NDP and the Liberals likely to lose a lot of votes to both sides. Running Rick Limoges would make no difference for the Liberals. Both Windsor seats should be easy NDP holds; their focus should then be on the 2007 Ontario election to try to unseat Duncan and Pupatello. Predicted results: NDP 46%, LIB 26%, CPC 23%, GRN 4%, others 1%.
08 05 05 Aric H
With the NDP vote this year at the same level or sometimes higher than what it was last year, most NDP incumbents will be re-elected and this includes here. Joe Comartin seems popular enough in his Windsor riding, has run for the NDP leadership, and while a bit out of view lately, will win this riding unless the Liberal vote increases a lot.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
The NDP will take both Windsor ridings again. The only Windsor area riding the liberals have any hope at winning is Essex, and I would say even that is very unlikely. Joe Comartin won back in 2000 when the NDP was polling at only half its current levels, so he should have no problem winning re-election.

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