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11:51 PM 20/12/2005

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12:42 AM 02/05/2005
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York Centre

Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Ken Dryden
Marco Iacampo
Constantine Kritsonis
Michael Mostyn

Hon. Ken Dryden

2004 Result/Résultats:
Ken Dryden
Michael Mostyn
Peter Flaherty
Constantine Kritsonis
Max Royz

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2004 Prediction page

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18 12 05 MH
One more Toronto-area seat in which the Tories and NDP candidates are simply the electoral equivalent of cannon fodder. York-Centre last went Conservative in 1958 and has never gone CCF or NDP (though NDP candidates have finished second more than once). It would take an electoral earthquake to shake this out of the Liberal column. Colour it red.
12 12 05 MF
I'm beginning to believe that Dryden will win this one by a larger margin than last time. Mostyn is basically a flack for an extremely right wing group, the Orwellian titled "Canadian Coalition for Democracies". Given the clear shift toward Israel under Martin (even if not pro-Israel enough for some) and the fact that Martin's speech was considered the highlight of the UJC Assembly, this group has no credibility when they insist Martin is "anti-Israel". Mostyn barely appeals to anyone outside a small, mostly orthodox, minority of the Jewish community, besides Annamarie Castrilli (who probably would have been a better candidate). I take it A.S. was referring to the area right around the orthodox Clanton Park synagogue when mentioning the Grits and Tories running neck-and-neck "around Wilson Heights" not the entire eastern section with a large Jewish population, because I recall Dryden still winning that side comfortably.
Prediction: LIB 59%, CON 22%, NDP 15%
07 12 05 DK
I have no reason to believe anything's going to change here. I've lived in this riding my entire life, and there hasn't been anyone but Liberals elected here for as long as I can remember. Ken Dryden ran a pretty poor campaign last time: he wasn't around early to respond to criticism about him being "parachuted" into the riding, and it seemed as if he hadn't even started campaigning until a few weeks in. In my part of the riding, there was a real push by the Jewish community, based on someone's assertion that the Liberals were against Israel, to vote for local "boy wonder" Michael Mostyn. It even looked like Mostyn had a chance for the first little while. Thankfully, though, he was trounced in the end, when Dryden finally woke up. This time around, while Mostyn will probably still garner considerable support from the Jewish community for being the "pro-Israel" candidate, he's not even going to come as close as he did last time. It will be a cakewalk for Dryden.
03 12 05 A.S.
This seat was meant to be a cakewalk in '04, esp. w/Paul Martin's bold nomination of Ken Dryden (a gesture which probably *did* help cement the Liberals' hold on ex-Red Tories across Ontario). But consider this: between Dryden's clumsy campaigning and the mysterious "Asperite" Tory upsurge among Toronto's orthodox Jewish constituency (indeed, the Tories were almost neck-and-neck with the Grits around Wilson Heights!), the Liberals finished 15-20 percentage points lower than the Art Eggleton mean--and moreover, if we extrapolate from the Liberals' mid-election polling nadir, Ken Dryden probably came closer to becoming Toronto's Glen Murray than anyone's willing to admit. But now that he's in, and established, Dryden's likely staying in. Even his continued shambling earnestness as elected pol + cabinet minister can now be deemed more endearing than offputting. And all past controversy over his parachuted superstar nomination now looks positively innocuous next to the chaos presently besetting Michael Ignatieff in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. Come to think of it, btw/the Dryden family's Etobicoke roots and York Centre's overall demographics (+ relative proximity of York University), maybe Dryden and Ignatieff ought to switch seats...
27 11 05 R2
York Centre has shifted from the days of Eggleton. For all of Eggelton's faults, people in the area liked him. The same cannot be said of Dryden. Dryden has isolated the York Centre community by only focusing on the West end voters with the whole soccer stadium fiasco at Downsview Park. I believe that York Centre will change hands this time around.
18 11 05 MF
I don't think anyone would seriously doubt this riding's going anywhere but Liberal. The question is by how big a margin. Dryden's 55% vote total last time was quite low in relative terms (say compared to Eggleton's victories in '97 and '00). But 1) given that Dryden wasn't an incumbent and was paracuted into the riding and 2) the small effect on a small proportion of the Jewish community who saw Chretien as anti-Israel, we may very well see the Tories lose ground here and Liberals return to its natural share of the vote. At the UJC General Assembly Martin clearly revealed himself to be more pro-Israel than Chretien and the voting record at the UN has also changed somewhat. The Jewish community stayed overwhelmingly Liberal during the "anti-Israel" Chretien years, so why would they go Tory now? The social conservatism of the Tories is anathema to almost non-orthodox Jew in the country.
22 05 05 MF
While the Liberals did relatively poorly here in 2004, Dryden still trounced Mostyn 55%-26%. Yes Mostyn did quite well in the heavily Jewish eastern half of the riding, but even over there Dryden won overwhelmingly. Jewish voters are still overwhelmingly Liberal. A potential Bathurst Corridor riding would easily go Liberal.
Dryden will easily win again.
17 05 05 Nick Boragina
Being an athlete wont win a liberal in wild rose, but running Mr.Dryden in the liberal heartland was a brilliant choice. At the end of the day, however, that's what it comes down to - this is Liberal heartland territory, and it does not matter who runs here, so long as they are a Liberal, they will become an MP simply by winning the nomination.
17 05 05 Rebel
Dear Gosens...Now in 2004, it WAS a weak riding for the Liberals comparatively, just as was alleged. The Conservative candidate ran well in the eastern Jewish polls of the riding and Dryden ran hardly any campaign at all, beyond steely asserting that even if he wins, he won't live in the riding.
That being said, I suspect Dryden will have an easier time in 2005...it is hard for the Conservatives to crack both ends of the riding...east side Jewish and west Italian. But when the Conservatives have run good Jewish candidates, they have run about as well as they could in the riding.
Now if there is ever a redistribution that links the whole Bathurst corridor (much like the old provincial riding of Armourdale or Wilson Heights) the federal Conservatives may well have a chance.
11 05 05 gosens
Ok so it wasn't 75%, it was 70%. Eggleton won with 71, 72, and 69 % in '00, '97, and '93.
11 05 05 gosens
Miles, how can you say this is one of the weaker Liberal ridings in the 416? Eggleton used to win here with over 75% when this was the "safest L seat in the country". If Dryden could only win by 11,000 votes then obviously he's not as good a politician as he was a goalie, and was obviously hurt by the Lib scandals. But that said, you can run a paper airplane as the Lib candidate here and it would win.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Although one of the weaker 416 ridings for the liberals, that doesn't say much since they still got over 50% in most 416 ridings. Ken Dryden also is not only known as a strong NHL goalie, which means nothing in terms of being a good politician, but has shown himself to be strong Social Development minister in his role in establishing a national childcare program, so he should be re-elected.
26 04 05 JC
No way will Ken Dryden lose his seat, he is way too personally popular and it will be nearly impossible for anyone to beat him here.

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