Update/Mise à jour:
12:57 PM 17/01/2006

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12:10 AM 06/05/2005
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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John Dewar
Sylvia Gerl
Christian Heritage
Vicki Gunn
Peter Van Loan
Kate Wilson

Peter Van Loan

2004 Result/Résultats:
Peter Van Loan
Kate Wilson
Sylvia Gerl
Bob Burrows
Stephen Sircelj
Vicki Gunn

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17 01 06 NDPer
I am predicting a clear Van Loan win here.
Despite what I've read here, Wilson hasn't been anywhere, and doesn't even accept all of the requests for speeches from schools and such. Members of her campaign team have left the party and have either joined the NDP or gone non-partisan.
While Van Loan has a penchant for placing signs on lawns without permission (the NDP has gotten dozens of calls from people wanting a different sign out of anger at PVL) and residents seem too polite to remove the unwanted signs, he still has a commanding lead, and with the number of anti-liberal voters in the area he should do even better than 2004.
12 01 06 Initial
Van Loan has a huge amount of support in the western half of this riding. I've seen virtually no support for Kate Wilson outside of Keswick. Although signs aren't an accurate representation....(you've heard it all before), most of Wilson's signs are on public property, as opposed to the PVL signs.
05 01 06 A.S.
Like Wellington-Halton Hills, like Carleton-Mississippi Mills, this was a "new" outer-exurb seat and apparent Tory "gimme"--and Van Loan didn't disappoint; in fact, he was the rare CPCer to actually conduct a stately "winner's campaign", almost as if Kim Campbell and the 1990s never happened. The biggest Liberal strong spot was the most inner-905esque multicult part: Bradford--but the overall Liberal odds were daunting then, they're just as much today, if not more so. The most likely absolute Tory majority within the GTA; it's all that needs to be said...
31 12 05 Sean
In two weeks since the writ was dropped, the Van Loan campaign appears to be steadily picking up momentum. Yesterday, as I drove through the riding I was shocked quite frankly how many Van Loan signs are already out on people's lawns.
07 12 05 Martin Potter
Let's talk numbers. The Grits need about 20% lead in Ontario to take this riding. They have, I believe, about a 15% lead. So, it's close. Last time they lost by about 9%. But, add in the fact that Kate Wilson is a strong candidate, and is popular--more popular--than the sullen van Loan, the Liberals could realistically make up that 5% with Wilson's strong performance. Prediction: Liberals, 43%; Tories, 41%; NDP, 11%; Greens, 3%, Chirstian Heritage and PC, 1% each.
07 12 05 JT
Keep in mind Van Loan defeated Wilson rather handily last time. So unless the Liberals begin polling in Chertien era type levels I call this a CPC hold. Plus Van Loan is probably one of the better known CPC MP's in Ontario.
03 12 05 Anthony Swail
The CBC has placed Peter Van Loan in the "too close to call" section on their forum. Kate Wilson is everywhere and her signs are going up fast. Plus, she has popular town councillor Doug White and Gordon Ashworth--the Gordon Ashworth--running her campaign. She is everywhere--suppers, the high school, door-knocking. Van Loan, believe it or not, is being out-classed! She will probably now take the riding by a few hundred votes: this is now a horserace but I think Kate Wilson is out-front.
02 12 05 James Stoart
Kate Wilson is dominating in the newspapers and is fighting a strong door-to-door campaign. She has also engaged the youth of the riding with a passionate speech at the local high school. Momentum is running against Van Loan.
As everyone has said, this will be very close, but I think Kate Wilson will win by a hundred--other forums are saying similar predictions.
26 11 05
I have to disagree with Robert here, it's going to be Kate... not by much but she'll take it.
Peter is not popular, and I certainly don't know where he gets this idea that she hasn't been present in the riding: she's everywhere and has been since the last election. In contrast, Peter looks sullen at every event he deigns to show up to, handing out his little pencils and looking miserable. He is just not popular.
If she managed to almost take the riding last time despite being a neophyte, plus the whole Ontario budget, etc... what like 3000 vote difference and a big part of that was the NDP surge in the riding... I think this time will be different.
Edge to Wilson, Van Loan better take his pencils and start packing the office up!
21 11 05 Robert Graves
Kate Wilson remains low profile in the riding. In contrast, Peter Van Loan spends as much time in the riding today as he did when he was first campaigning in the Spring of 2004. He has firmly established himself with the voters, especially community leaders. As far as key ridings go, any injection from the federal Liberal party will go to Newmarket-Aurora where Belinda Stronach will be hard pressed to hold her seat, and Kate Wilson can expect little or no help. She is probably out-financed, and will almost certainly be out-classed again in debates where in 2004 she showed herself as a touch arrogant. A new candidate would have helped the Liberals here, but given the same players it should be a Conservative win.
31 10 05 Jane Holland
I never like to presume what voters will do, but I believe it is likely that Peter Van Loan will be re-elected, as he had one of the largest conservative pluralities in Ontario and on that basis alone the Liberals will not likely put much into this riding, meaning any gains will depend entirely on the local candidate, who didn’t even do as well as she should have last time.
The Liberals' priorities in this region will be (1) making sure they don't lose Belinda Stronach's seat, which would be a huge embarrassment (2) defending their other 905 seats full of middle-class voters hurting from rising gas, natural gas, electricity and other prices (3) targetting ridings with more vulnerable PC incumbents.
02 11 05 Kyle
I'm going to give this one to Kate Wilson... narrowly, but I'm putting it into her column.
Van Loan is present, yes, it's true. But he's also exceedingly surly and ignorant. A rural riding this may well be, but his attitude has not and does not play well here. Ditto his leader.
Wilson has, over the course of the last year, made a lot of progress in the riding. Coming from being a virtual unknown to within 4500 of winning the last time, she's now making sure to be everywhere and do everything possible to build bridges and alliances. Plus she's a pretty likeable lady in a riding where personality and hard work count for a lot.
From what I am hearing, Van Loan will have a dogfight on his hands to hold this seat.
Wilson will take it - it'll be VERRRRRY close... 100-200 votes max, but she'll get enough support from NDP, etc to put this in to the Liberal column on election night.
02 10 05 Serge
I think this riding will be won by Kate Wilson this time. Kate and the Riding President Raj Sandhu are both approchable and always willing to listen and help residents. Meanwhile Mr. Van Loan questions whether a person lives in his riding before he helps them. I think Kate is on the right track this time as she is attending almost every event in the riding. Peter is getting run for his money this time from Liberals.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
Kate Wilson may be a strong candidate and as Bear and Ape suggested, I wouldn't surprised if she narrowed the gap. However, this is a very conservative riding and was the Tories 6th best showing in Ontario so if they lose this one, then they are in big trouble. Besides the liberals would need at least a 20 if not 25 point lead in Ontario to realistically be able to take this and right now they have about a 15 point lead while last election they were 13 points ahead while Peter van Loan won by 10 points. Besides Peter van Loan is a moderate and has had strong involvement in the community so Kate Wilson's campaigning will at best narrow the gap, but not enough to win this. Peter van Loan will get at least as many votes as last time around so the NDP vote would have to completely disappear before the liberals could realistically take this one. Also after John Reynolds position as the national co-chair nearly cost him his riding, I am sure Peter Van Loan will make sure he has a strong campaign team set up for the election as well as he will probably due some campaigning before the writ is dropped. And besides Stephen Harper will spend 80% of his time in Ontario anyways so he won't face the problem John Reynolds faced of having to fly across the country but instead will be within driving distance of his riding most of the time.
16 08 05 Bear and Ape
A much closer race this time, as was said, Kate Wilson is working hard and Van Loan will be distracted, but this is still a very conservative riding. We think the Liberals have a shot but it will be a very uphill battle. Smart money is still on the Conservatives.
08 07 05 James Stoart
Kate Wilson is recovering from last year's defeat at the hands of Peter van Loan. She is working hard to bring better healthcare to the community and is well liked. She'll wrest the seat back to the Liberals from a distracted Peter van Loan (van Loan is running the Conservatives official campaign, so he may be distracted from the improved Liberal threat).
21 09 05
Mr. Van Loan is a very strong candidate. However, Ms. Wilson, the Liberal nominee, is gaining speed and showing a great maturity in an invigorated pre-campaign swing. The Liberals fought the last election with a limited budget. However, now one can expect the party that is know for campaigning to come out with a strong showing. Ms. Wilson is a well-loved nurse. Her work to remedy the Bradford healthcare shortage is appreciated and respected. She is well liked by the youth, seniors, and the numerous Portuguese community. The election will be very close--but the improved Liberal campaign might be able to swing a seat from Mr. Van Loan.
05 05 05 James Paterson
York-Simcoe = 6th best Conservative margin in Ontario last election.
Peter Van Loan and his team are roundly acknowledged as the best and the brightest in the Conservative Party.
Add in the incumbency effect and you have an extremely high likelihood of re-election for Van Loan.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
This was the strongest Conservative showing in the 905 belt and GTA (depending on how one defines the GTA) and the sixth best Conservative showing in Ontario. Add to the fact Peter Van Loan already had a strong community profile in his leadership against pollution in Lake Simcoe and building a landfill in Georgina as well as the fact he will almost certainly be a cabinet minister, probably human resources minister if the conservatives win, due to his role in helping unite the two parties. Since he is one of the national co-chairs, this will limit his role in campaigning in the local riding and it is highly doubtful he would have accepted that role unless he was sure his own riding was secure.

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