Update/Mise à jour:
11:16 AM 04/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:11 AM 06/05/2005
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York West

Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

Constituency Profile
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Nick Capra
Axcel Cocon
Parm Gill
Sandra Romano Anthony
Judy Sgro

Hon. Judy Sgro

2004 Result/Résultats:
Judy Sgro
Sandra Romano Anthony
Leslie Soobrian
Joseph Grubb
Tim McKellar

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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03 01 06 YW
This is a really safe Liberal seat hands down. Although there is a good NDP showing at the municipal level the Liberals will always have this seat. There is high turnout from voters in houses however really low turnout in the rental apartments. The NDP would benefit from a higher voter turnout as the Liberals between elections cannot be seen except for their strong party organization and connections to cultural organizations that propel the idea that the Liberal party is the party for immigrants. In the future this could be a potential NDP seat however until then the Liberals have this one.
18 12 05 MH
Once upon a time many years ago, when Toronto's ethnic composition was largely WASP, this was a safe Tory seat, with a forty-year string of Conservative victories broken only by a very narrow Liberal win in 1935. Times have changed: the last time a Tory won here was in 1958, the year of the Diefenbaker landslide. In 1962 Red Kelly - older hockey fans will remember him -- took it for the Grits, and they haven't looked back since. Right now this may not be the safest Liberal seat in the country but it must be close. In spite of Judy Sgro's troubles with strippergate, this seat would probably resist even a Conservative landslide, as it did in 1984.
17 05 05 Nick Boragina
York West is the Mount Royal of Ontario. This is a bedrock Liberal riding. Sgro be damned, the party could run a vantrequilist's dummy here and it would win. This is a solid red riding plain and simple.
16 05 05
The three Toronto ridings beginning with "York" are the three safest Liberal ridings in the country. No contest.
14 05 05 A.S.
My inkling is that the specificity of PizzaStripperGate may have inadvertently fortified Sgro against the more egregious of-the-moment Gomery backwash--the Diane Marleau of the 416? Of course, the seat remains supersafe, and any real threat (as if) shall come from the NDP. But the real under-the-wire 2004 electoral story in York West was that, exploiting the anti-Liberal vacuum and Tory negligibility, the Christian Heritage Party's Joseph Grubb ran a high-intensity litmus campaign on the backs of conservative Catholic voters and scored, at 5.71%, the best CHP result in Canada. Yes, here in Italo-polyglot York West against Judy Sgro, on the backs of the Benedict XVI crowd rather than the rural Bible-Belters one usually associates with CHP-type entities. Go figure.
11 05 05 JC
Judy has a boost now, she's been cleared of Strippergate and the Pizza Fiasco, that being said people who were angry at her for this might come back and support her. She will win this riding singlehandedly anyway
11 05 05 Craig
Safest Liberal seat in Canada, Sgro or no Sgro. Despite her personal scandals, there is no way this riding will not go Liberal unless they get wiped right off the political map, and they would have to fall to single digits in the polls. People here cannot stand social conservatism, and AdScam will not really play a role here. This is Toronto after all! If Sgro is really vulnerable personally and Martin loses Lasalle-Emard, this would be a prime seat for a by-election if he is still PM. Predicted results: LIB 60%, NDP 17%, CPC 15%, GRN 3%, others 5%.
04 05 05 Neal
Even without free pizza, and with egg on her face, Judy Sgro will be re-elected.....77% is just too strong a plurality.
08 05 05 MG
I used to live in this riding. As long as I can remember, both federally and provincially, it has always gone Liberal with the exception of 1990 when the NDP took it in the surprise Bob Rae provincial victory. Maybe with a star candidate, the NDP might make it close but in reality this is as about as safe a Liberal seat as you can get.
03 05 05 Brandon
With or without Romanian Strippers working on her election campaign, Judy Sgro will cruise to victory once again. This riding is just unwinnable for any other party. Last time it was by 14,000 votes over the NDP (who got 4,000). This time, because of the scandal allegations, it will be slightly less.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Despite the Strippergate scandal, Judy Sgro is in one of the safest liberal ridings so she will be re-elected even if this scandal hurts the party elsewhere.

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