15 01 06	MD
In 1988 and 1993 Charleswood was part of Winnipeg South. In 88 Winnipeg South went PC. When Charleswood was added to make Charleswood-St. James the Liberals healed on because of vote splitting. Steven Fletcher is an amazing story, he has national coverage, and is well known.
	12 01 06	Patrick
The information people are providing for this riding is ridiculous. A simple background check on this riding shows that all three major patries have one it at one time. As for those who insist it is a Tory riding, funny enough it has been a liberal riding since 1988! I would argue that as the NDP do not (unfortunately) have a strong presence here, that many typical NDP voters might be persuarded to vote Liberal. I think this riding is far more competitive than most people are leading on to. Mr. Loewen has done a fantastic job going door to door since the New Year. If you judge success by the number of signs you see on front lawns and balconies, this is without question an EVEN race. My prediction: Liberal shocker! History: Winnipeg-St. James: 1979 - PC 1980 - NDP 1984 - PC 1988, 1993 - LIB Charleswood-Assiniboine: 1997 - LIB Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia: 2000 - LIB Charleswood-St. James: 2004 - CON
	11 01 06	Jim
I live in the riding and caught the radio candidate’s debate. Mr. Loewen’s big solution for health care was to “speak to health care providers”. 6 years as an MLA and he is just now getting around to speaking to health care providers? This guy is looking more and more like an empty suit. Fletcher, who came out strongly to support the Canadian Cancer Control Strategy recommended by 700 health care providers and cancer survivors, clearly outclasses his opponent when it comes to substance and impact. It is only the pessimist in me that thinks this race will even be close. Fletcher will be re-elected here.
	08 01 06	M. Lunn
I am moving this to the Conservative column. Contrary to what one poster said below, the united right hasn't always won here. It went Liberal in 1988 and in 1993 John Harvard got more than the PC + Reform votes. In addition I think using the combined right votes are silly as most PC voters would go Liberal before going Reform or Alliance. However this was back in the 90s when the Liberals were popular, which they aren't today. Stephen Fletcher has been a very high profile MP and would likely get a cabinet post if the Tories formed government. John Leowen is not as high a profile as Glen Murray, although I don't expect the Liberals to drop by much over last time. I am guessing Conservatives by about 5-7 points this time around.
	08 01 06	Will
Without Question a definite Tory win. Much to the grits dismay St.James/Charleswood is a tory riding...it has always been. The sole reason it wasn’t under Harvard was not that the Liberals were seen as a better choice. They were chosen by default because the vote was split btwn the Alliance/Reform and PC's. Now that there is a united front it will stay tory for a long time to think otherwise is naive. As well the Liberals are afraid of Fletcher. Here is a man who knows the health care system in and out better then their own minister. He has a great following in his riding and is a household name. He has been EXTREMELY visible and his flyers are always out year round. Lowen may be mentioned for the crocus scheme but he has lost a lot of credibility by crossing the floor. And how can any1 honestly say that he knows more about the issues, particulary healthcare then Fletcher...thats a joke. I say Fletcher wins a substantial victory and the liberals should focus their resources on ridings that are more likely to swing their way its another example of a poor campaign by the libearls...yet again.
	29 12 05	Greg P
I didn't even see this part of "Big L Man"'s submission when I submitted my last reply:"...not only supporting Mr. Loewen but also publicly endorsing him. This also includes ALL of the former Charleswood-St.James-Assiniboia conservative riding association executive that have walked away from Mr. Fletcher." That is factually incorrect - I assume he is referring to the board that served prior to November/04 - and I can name at least one member of that executive that served on the executive committee the next time around (the first board elected after Mr. Fletcher's victory).
	28 12 05	Greg P
M. Lunn: Yes, there are former PC's that are with the Liberals - but, no more then 2004. I would almost suggest that some have started trickling back - what, with the "beer and popcorn" comments, and the generally less-hostile reporting towards the Conservatives then was seen last year. The former PC members that are endorsing Loewen are the same ones that endorsed Murray. As long as the election looks like a minority parliament (either way), Fletcher will be re-elected. A Conservative government would likely see Fletcher in the cabinet; a Liberal government would likely see Fletcher return as health critic - continuing to fight for cancer care, Hep. C compensation, and wait time guarantees. The Liberals are scared of Steven - look at them trolling here to dish out the personal attacks (not to mention the comments on some of the Liberal blogs about him), and then complaining when somebody makes a comment about Loewen's switching parties.
	26 12 05	M. Lunn
I agree the Tories will probably take this, but I don't think one should underestimate the amount of former Progressive Conservatives who have gone over to the Liberals. I have been to a number of Liberal rallies and there were several former PC members there. In fact I would say at least 30% of former PC supporters are going Liberal this time since they want nothing to do with the Reform Party. The only reason the Tories aren't in as bad a shape as the Alliance and Reform is they have picked up some blue Liberals who feel it is time for change. Very few Red Tories are supporting the Conservatives, most Blue Tories are, but not Red Tories.
	25 12 05	Observer
Olive McPhail??? Who is Olive McPhail? I don't really think Olive McPhail or Dorothy Dobbie or Joe Clark are going to play any role in this race. John Loewen will do well because he is well respected...But my gut tells me that Steven Fletcher will win by a slightly larger margin than his win over Glen Murray. Any suggestion that Steven Fletcher is too far right wing has never heard Steven Fletcher speak. Anybody reluctant to vote for a merged Alliance/Conservative Party did not vote for Fletcher last time so Fletcher can't lose these people's vote this time. People can say what they want but nobody can argue that in the early stages of the last race, Glen Murray was heavily favoured. Steven Fletcher was a virtual nobody and he took Murray down. Fletcher is now seen as being a reasonably capable, articulate representative for this riding. He will win but it will be a bit of a tight race.
	23 12 05	Tory Insider
A handful of red tories hacks who will be voting Liberal will not determine the outcome of this campaign. People are starting to forget the whole "Reformer" vs. "PC" battles of the last 4 elections. Again, Loewan was foolish for stepping into the Lib party at this time. He will be rewarded with unemployment.
	22 12 05
John Loewen Who? The Liberals couldn't find a real star candidate like the one last time willing to once again go down in defeat so they have dragged out some obscure provincial opposition backbencher. This seems like a hail mary kind of last ditch effort. Unfortunately, for the Liberals St. James is a solidly Tory seat and last time around it took a very popular Mayor to even come within striking distance. Most of the Liberal voters last time were voting for the Man and not the party. Now they don't have much of a candidate in Loewen and the Liberal party is even more mired in corruption, dithering, and phony promises.
	21 12 05
Big L Man the best John Loewen can come up with is Olive McPhail?!? She supported Glen last time, and she did not work for Glen and she won't work for John. People don't really care how this one disgruntled person will be voting. Big deal she was Clark's Manitoba organizer in the 1970s-80s, people don't care about stuff like that!
	20 12 05	Big L Man
My, My, the Reform/Conservative/Alliance apologists in this riding seem to think that personally attacking Mr. Loewen will put them over the top. The fact of the matter is that Mr. Fletcher is still a harcore "Reformer" who is neither liked nor supported amongst former PC members or supporters. Many long time well known and active tories such as Olive McPhail (the matriarch of the St. James tories) are not only supporting Mr. Loewen but also publicly endorsing him. This also includes ALL of the former Charleswood-St.James-Assiniboia conservative riding association executive that have walked away from Mr. Fletcher.
	20 12 05	reido
Unfortunately now that the Conservatives have grabbed a hold of the wealthiest and most conservative riding in Winnipeg, they are not going to let go. Steven Fletcher is a very high profile and popular MP. I can't see John Loewen winning any Conservative voters to the Liberals because they will see him as betraying the provincial Conservative party and I don't think he will win over any NDP votes because him being a Conservative. Fletcher will win this one by about a 10% margin.
	19 12 05	Laurence Putnam
Not a contest. Last time, Fletcher beat Glen Murray - there couldn't have been a better Liberal candidate. Now Fletcher is the household name with name recognition, advantage of incumbency, and a Tory campaign that is strong in Manitoba. Fletcher victory.
	17 12 05	Jim W
When former Tory MLA John Loewon decided to turn tail and make a run for the federal Liberals this is what noted Winnipeg Columnist Tom Brodbeck had to say, “Loewen was a major disappointment as a so-called fiscal conservative, because he isn't one. But he's made all that worse now by joining a party mired in political corruption and scandal -- activity that he obviously supports.” Since then Loewen continues to wilt under the media spotlight with the CBC breaking the story this past week of his highly questionable party loyalties. According to the CBC, Loewon conducted a poll to gauge his chances of unseating Liberal party notable Reg Alcock and only when he realized his chances where poor did Loewen have a “crisis of values” and made a deal with the Liberals. Voters in this riding were not fooled by the last Liberal airdropped candidate and he had better name recognition and a lot more credibility than the already tainted Loewen. Fletcher, on the other hand, has a solid record of accomplishment as an MP, the National Cancer Strategy is just one area he has championed. Flecher has also served his constituents well, hosting close to 20 Fletcher Forum townhall meeting over the past 16 months. Talk about your white knights. Fletcher wins by a fair margin here – no contest.
	14 12 05	pax vobiscum
This seat is not as secure as it might seem. Fletcher is vulnerable to a negative campaign in a number of areas: he made culturally insensitive remarks (about the Japanese, for which he had the grace to apologize) and he was president of the provincial PCs at a time when they faced charges for election act vioations and were so late in filing financial statements that they nearly had themselves deregistered. On top of that, his Liberal opponent is a white knight of sorts who exposed the Crocus investment fund scandal, and is a former Conservative MLA. This conservative riding was not comfortable in electing an openly-gay Liberal candidate with strong ties to the NDP last time, but Loewen is a different prospect, with his conservative credentials. Remember that before a close Conservative win last time, Liberal John Harvard held it for several elections.
	07 12 05	Steve G
Fact is that Mr. Fletcher has excelled in his role as MP and has a high profile as the CPC's health critic. Nothing short of a Conservative melt-down will flip this seat to the Liberals and really, can ANY of us realistically imagine a Conservative melt-down in its Prairie heartland?
	07 12 05	PG
Murray may have been hurt by his unpopular policies as mayor; however he was hurt more because of the cost to taxpayers for the mayoral election. Loewen has the same baggage - the provincial election in Fort Whyte is not playing well with local residents (at least, those who have heard of Loewen). After a week in the writ period, Fletcher is winning the sign war by far -driving along Moray yesterday I counted around 15 lawns with Fletcher signs, compared to no Loewen signs. This may be a longer campaign - however Loewen has no time at all to catch up with Fletcher's name recognition. It may be an organizational problem within the Loewen campaign - their convenience-store campaign office only started showing signs of life (beyond a couple signs in the windows) on Sunday - Fletcher's office has been bustling since last Tuesday. Add in the fact that Loewen had at least a few lawn signs two weeks ago (at the Liberal nomination meeting, Loewen was using Liberal-branded lawn signs, compared to Conte using a personal banner without Liberal branding)... either he has a fatally incompetent campaign manager, or he has been having a lot of trouble getting volunteers. I won't go so far as to say this will be an easy Conservative win - but unless something very unexpected happens, this seat will remain blue.
	07 12 05	Andrew M
The wealthiest riding in Winnipeg. The only reason it ever went Liberal to begin with was the vote splitting between the Conservatives and the Alliance. Rich people like their Tories, and Loewen will be the second "star" candidate to fall to Fletcher in two years.
	05 12 05	joe
Fletchers going to win by a land slide. He is winning the sign war from about 100 to 1. Fletchers got great publicity. Harper made that major Health announcement in Fletchers riding of course Fletchers is the Health critic. There is a great write up in the Globe and Mail this weekend. He is definitely a moderate. The Conservatives are doing awesome on the prairies.
	12 12 05	Fence Dude
65% Fletcher wins, but I think that the race will be a lot closer than the Conservative hacks like to think. Latest polling has Fletcher only a few points above the liberal candidate. Quite amazing for an incumbent that "insiders" believe is untouchable. One of the big factors is whether or not Fletcher has the same campaign management team behind him, as he had in the last election. If that team is too busy curling, this could shave a few % points off his lead. Organization is everything in this riding, less so than the candidate.
	03 12 05	ER
Fletcher won last time because Murray was unpopular in this area of town. Now he goes against Loewen who was the one politician who warned Manitobans about the Crocus fund. Close but Loewen wins
	02 12 05	Greg P
In response to "M. Lunn", Fletcher's views are nowhere near extremely right-wing. Look at, for example, the trans-fat proposal. The NDP wanted to outright ban trans-fats, Fletcher worked with them and modified the proposal to involve industry representatives in a search for alternatives to trans-fats, with the goal of phasing them out; a far cry from the far-right response of, "leave it to the industry to decide how to do it, government should have no involvement". Look also at Fletcher's proposal to fund the national cancer care strategy - the far right would not propose increasing (federal) government involvement; they would suggest leaving it to the provinces or to industry. Fletcher's visibility is very high in the riding right now - he has a very visible campaign office (impossible to miss from either side of Portage Ave.), and with Harper having been there today to announce the CPC's health care platform, this office will be in the front page of most newspapers tomorrow. Compare that with Loewen, who has a campaign office hidden in the corner of a strip mall, and is virtually unknown in the riding.
	05 12 05	Observer
I think this will be close but I think that Steven Fletcher will likely win. I would have thought that a guy as smart as John Loewen would learn from history. Glen Murray was handpicked to win here and Murray was felt to be fairly safe in winning. At that time Steven Fletcher was almost unknown. Fletcher is now a known, and relatively well thought of, commodity. Although he's made a minor slip or two, he has gained more respect than he has lost. Fletcher will win by a small margin.
	01 12 05	Tory Insider
Fletcher will be re-elected. I think John miscalculated by jumping ship from the Tories mere weeks before Stu was tossed as leader. What does that say for Loewen's (sp?) political astuteness???? Who signs up for a party on the decline after suffering one of the biggest political scandals in Canadian history? A loser. Don't know why this riding is being called "to close to call". I thought the aim here is predict who will win. No contest here folks! Stop propping up false Liberal hopes.
	28 11 05	Greg P
The only way this one goes Liberal is if it looks like there is going to be a Liberal majority. Fletcher's profile in this riding is very high, with virtually 100% name recognition and a virtually-guaranteed cabinet position in a Conservative Government.
	24 11 05	Craig
If Steven Fletcher could beat a sure-to-be-cabinet minister and former mayor, he can surely beat a Tory-turned-Liberal turncoat. If the Conservatives form government, he'll almost certainly get a cabinet post himself. This is the most affluent and also the most conservative riding in Winnipeg, and will likely stay that way. Predicted results: CPC 46%, LIB 36%, NDP 13%, GRN 4%, others 1%.
	23 11 05	M. Lunn
Unlike Kildonan-St. Paul and Churchill, which I think the Liberals have a very good chance of gaining, this will be a tough one as Stephen Fletcher is reasonably popular and he is at least perceived as moderate, although I have heard from people who have actually spoken to him that his views are quite right wing, but he at least doesn't mouth off like many others. John Leowen doesn't have the profile of Glen Murray, but he does grow a long list of past Progressive Conservatives who are switching to the Liberals because they are uncomfortable with Stephen Harper. I expect some other Red Tories who were willing to give the new party a chance, might decide to follow Leowen's lead and go Liberal. I still think Stephen Fletcher has an advantage, but this is not a safe riding like Portage-Lisgar.
	21 11 05	Smith
Fletcher will win this seat by a long shot. He has done a great job as an MP. He is seen all over his riding. He sends out lots of mailers, to keep us informed of what’s going on. Fletcher, as the health critic has done an awesome job as well. He has National exposure and he is likely to go to cabinet in a Conservative government. Also, he is on the moderate side of his party. Fletcher has shown an ability to cross party lines such as: working with the NDP on trans fats. He has also been able to build coalitions to push through initiatives such as, compensation for Hep C victims, and to boot he is very well liked. The Liberals will be lucky to keep the 5 seats they have on the Prairies. Loewen is not a credible candidate. He has switched party’s, people are very angry. He has no natural base in the riding, whereas, Steven Fletcher does. The riding is naturally Conservative, with ultra-strong Conservative pockets, such as Headingley. There is also a military base, and I have trouble believing that the military personnel could possibly vote Liberal, Conservatives are their only choice. The Liberal candidate also has a poor record as an MLA, and has been known to bash the Federal Liberals, which I am sure will come up in the election. Fletcher, being a good MP combined with the sense of change across the Prairies, if not across the country will ensure that this seat remains a Conservative seat.
	19 11 05	MD
Glen Murray might not be that well liked by those who follow politics closely in Winnipeg, but most people do not follow politics at all. With that group he had a large advantage of nearly 100% name recognition. Fletcher still beat him. Loewen does not enjoy large name recognition in this part of Winnipeg as he was just an opposition MLA from another area of the city. He is also a turncoat and people don't trust turncoats.
	18 11 05
The Liberals have a more credible candidate with suburban Winnipeg voters than Murray. If the Liberals run a better national campaign, then this seat is winnable.
	25 10 05	Paul
This riding will go solidly Conservative this time, due to incumbency and the Liberal having a turncoat instead of a respected star as their candidate. This one is not close. Easy CPC win here.
	16 10 05	Greg P
Loewen won't hurt Steven's chances at all in this riding. He was, at best, a Red Tory, in a rather blue riding. As Political hack said, the riding is in favor of (socially) conservative policies (no SSM, tough on crime, low taxes). Loewen spent his time in the provincial opposition complaining about not enough money being spent on social programs - something that won't sell very well in most of Charleswood, a fair chunk of St. James, and all of Headingley. I see Steven increasing his lead in most polls he took last election, and taking several St. James (especially the East) and Charleswood polls that went Liberal last election. This riding won't be a blowout - but, it'll be a pretty clear Conservative win.
	03 10 05	Political hack
Steven Fletcher will win this riding by a country mile. First he is a progressive. You can just look at his record, fighting for compensation of Hep C victims, calling for a national cancer strategy, and even working with NDP'er Pat Martin and did something very unconservative, as he tried to reduce trans fats in our food supply. Fletcher next to McKay and Harper is the most recognizable Tory. Moreover, he is at everything. Fly's in every weekend and has town halls. I live in the riding and it seems I get something in the mailbox every week. Loewen is an opportunist. He has ticked off lots of Tories. In our system you just don't switch party's. Loewen is also a multi-bizzillionarie with no cents. Under new financing rules he can't buy the election. He talked about social issues, but didn't highlight which ones. Is he for same-sex marriage? Ah, yes. The constituency is definitely a no. Is he against being tough on crime? That's a social conservative issue. Loewen's toast! Fletcher will win, because he has done a great job. And to boot, I think the people of the riding are proud that he is the first quad to be elected.
	23 09 05	M. Lunn
It will be interesting to see how John Leowen plays out here since he was before a provincial PC. Although some will see him as a turncoat, the provincial PCs are more in line with the Old PCs, while the new Conservatives are merely a continuation of the Reform/Alliance with a few PCs. That being said, Stephen Fletcher is a very popular MP so if he does win his seat, it will be in spite of Stephen Harper, not because of him. Had John Leowen ran against Joy Smith though, he probably would have had a better chance at winning since she is a nobody and wouldn't have won if it weren't for the advanced polls whereas Stephen Fletcher would have still won even without the advanced polls and Glen Murray was equally as high-profile if not more so than John Leowen. Still too close to call, but if Harper's numbers continue to drop, this will become a liberal seat no matter what as local candidates can only swing a party by 5-10 points.
	11 08 05	MB Tory
Steven Fletcher is a hard working MP who has developed a national profile and strong name recognition. It was close last time for Fletcher running against a well known (although not always well liked) mayor. It won't be close this time. Score this one for the Conservative's and Fletcher.
	24 06 05	Mathias
Even if John Agnus is nominated for the Liberals here, Steven Fletcher will still take this seat easily. This is a riding the Conservatives have been winning for years, only before 2004 the right-wing vote was split. Fletcher can probably expect to increase his victory margin this time because he won't be facing a star candidate like Glen Murray.
	04 06 05	Greg P
First of all, ToJo should at least try to get his/her facts straight. Mr. Fletcher said, "The Japs were bastards" (as opposed to using the present tense as ToJo misquoted) - referring to the soldiers that ran the POW camps during World War Two (and whom committed atrocities against Mr. Fletcher's grandfather). The comment itself was completely accurate - except for the word "Japs" - and Mr. Fletcher has apologised for that comment. This isn't going to affect things very much - those in this area that will not accept his apology were likely not Conservative supporters anyways. A couple of veterans that I have talked to were impressed with his knowledge of history (how many people under the age of 45 realized that Japan had more involvement in World War Two then Pearl Harbour and the atomic bombs?) How this riding is too close to call is beyond me - the last election was close only because of the Liberal candidate's nearly 100% name recognition - this one is going to be an easy Conservative win.
	03 06 05	Gordon Fletcher
The quote was “the Jap were bastards” not “are”. There is a huge difference. Furthermore, the Japanese Imperial Army was as ruthless as the Nazi army. To say the Nazi’s were bastards is an understatement. To forget what the Allies sacrificed during the fight for the Pacific is a travesty. Thank you to Steven for remembering! Back to the riding, Steven beat a star candidate last time. The Liberals won’t find a new star, let alone a credible person run in CSJ. The Liberals are going to fall off the political map in the west after the next election.
	02 06 05	Aric H
Some Conservatives like to boast that Glen Murray was beaten here, even though it was very close and was only a difference of about 800 votes. The Liberals obviously could win this riding, BUT I do think they will need a Murray like name to do it. Therefore, this riding is all about waiting to see who the Liberal candidate will be. And yes, Fletcher better be careful not to make any more controversial remarks about the Japanese because he can't afford to lose votes if the Libs run a strong candidate here.
	29 05 05	punditman
This is NOT too close to call. Fletcher will win this hands down. He beat a star candidate in fmr. Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray last time. He will also likely become Health Minister if the Conservatives form the next government. Fletcher will be the MP of this riding for a long time, he ain't going anywhere!
	26 05 05	ToJo
I think the "Japs are Bastards" comments may hurt Stephen in the upcoming election, whenever it may be. It probably won't hurt him too much, then again the margin of victory was small. Enough to cost him the victory? We'll see...
	Date 10 05 05	Tory Insider
Stephen will increase his support this time round. He has done a decent job and will not be facing a "star" candidate this time round. This seat is back in Tory hands for the long haul.
	12 05 05	ZJ
Fletcher is vulnerable. Despite all the junkmail and the bus stop advertising, Fletcher's visibility in the riding is minimal. With the Liberal poll numbers stablizing in the mid to high 30's, he can't take anything for granted. If the Liberal national numbers hold in the high 30's or start to bump up against 40%...it goes Liberal.
	05 05 05	Doug
If Fletcher won in 2004 there is no way he can lose in 2005. The question is how many votes the Liberals will lose due to: a) Having no high profile candidate to run. b) Their overall decline in popularity from a year ago. Frankly, there exists a better chance of an upset in one of the Liberal held Winnipeg ridings than in this one.
	04 05 05	M. Lunn
When you consider that Glen Murray isn't running again, Stephen Fletcher's strong showing as Health Critic and possibly a future Health minister should the Conservatives win the next election, he will likely be re-elected. The only thing that could hurt him is this is an urban riding that is fiscally conservative, but not socially conservative like Rural Manitoba so if he does lose, it will be because of people being uncomfortable with Stephen Harper, not Stephen Fletcher.
	04 05 05	MD
Fletcher will win, hands down. He has enjoyed the national media attention and has been an outstanding MP. It was close last time, but Fletcher has proven to be a great MP and if the CPC form government may even be named to Cabinet. Also I highly doubt that the Liberals will be able to get another star candidate to run this time.
	04 05 05	Conservative in Winnipeg
It's going to be a landslide. Unless the Liberals parachute another candidate in, they won't even come close. The Conservatives are coming in with a very strong candidate, in a naturally Conservative area - what do the Liberals have? I have heard that they have talked to some people to gauge interest (Steven Fletcher's family doctor, for one), but from what I hear, nobody will run against Fletcher.
	02 05 05	TC
If Mr. Fletcher looses I will be shocked, he has a very loyal and hardworking campaign team to help him. He is also very well liked and has proven last election he can be a giant killer. Expect an easy re-election