2:18 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:13 PM 16/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Kildonan-St. Paul
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Terry Duguid
Eduard Hiebert
Evelyn Myskiw
Joy Smith
Colleen Zobel

Joy Smith

2004 Result:
Joy Smith
Terry Duguid
Lorene Mahoney
Jacob Giesbrecht
Rebecca Whittaker
Katharine Reimer

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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16 01 06 James Cotton
GordoCdn, I highly doubt the NDP vote will collapse. If anything it will increase from last time. West Kildonan has always been a strong NDP area. With the national trends this will not change. Many other polling sites have this riding solid blue. I can't understand the liberal obsession with trying to win this seat. Yes, it was close last time, but that was when Joy Smith was a unknown and harper was "scary". Harper has proven he is not scary , in fact this time it is the liberals that appear more scary. People still remember when Duguid wanted to put toll booths at all the entrances to Winnipeg.
14 01 06 GordoCdn
Look for a total collapse of NDP support in this riding allowing Terry Duguid to buck the national trend. NDP signs are almost non-existent, and Duguid campaign appears to be on a roll, with a growing number of sign locations and volunteers. Word on the street is that Alcock controlled workers have been pulled from Loewen campaign in favour of Duguid Campaign.
13 01 06 Arun
I'm changing my prediction to conservative. With the high national level I don't think this riding will loose joy smith as their MP. As a previous person mentioned this riding tends to go with the government. This riding This riding is by no means has a uniform population and will probably never see a party take 50% of the vote, but I believe Joy will recieve around 40% to beat out her competition. Just look at the Liberal signs, the could the liberal logo be any smaller on the signs.
11 01 06 Platinum
So a Southender is making a call for us NorthEnders. Well, this riding is 2 distinct areas, East and West of river. The East of River has a bigger pop'n base and it is BIG C, yes, Terry's stomping grounds has no A polls for him, (does it make you wonder why?) my guess is they know him well. So they vote against him. Also a couple of super strong Conservative MLA's out there.(Schuler and Bonnie) Let me tell you East St Paul, is the richest per capita in MB, guess who they are going to vote for.
Now, the WEST side of the river is further divided by two, OLD WEST KILDONAN and then the sewage plant and Bergen cut-off is the imaginary boundary,that transforms to the suburbs of the RIVER-BENDS-GROVES-DALES and West St Paul.
I admit OLD WEST KILD. is not a conservative haven, but guess what, thats the area that voted in David Orlikow for something like 13or 14 consecutive elections, now what party was ORILOKOW...thats it.... NDP. Old West Kildonan is clearly NDP. Joy and Terry will get leftovers. Moving to the suburbs, Rivergrove and Riverdale are very affluent, I dont have to tell you the vote. Riverbend is suburbia and a mix, thats a 3-way toss-up?? And finally West St Paul is rural, their kids bus to schools, they all have 3 or 4 dawgs, more snowmobiles then cars, in fact their Rivercrest hotel has hundreds of snow machines in the parking lot everynight. RURAL=Con.
Finally the current MP is hardworking attends every event and comes across as very honest. I drove past her BURMA shave at 07:30 am in the winter twice already. Incumbency and strong National campaign, my guess CONS will get over 15,000 votes. I crossed my fingers when I wrote that so i cant be hexed.
11 01 06 John Doe
I think the power of incumbancy, and the strength of the national campaign, will enable Joy to hold on. But there's serios concern among Conservatives about the non-campaign of the NDP. They appear to have almost quit campaigning altogether, to allow the Liberals to pick up their support. it will have an impact that may elect Duguid.
10 01 06 Will
This will go Conservative for sure. Historically this riding (with these approx. boundaries) has always gone the same way as the government. Last election was an exception. Joy managed to win even though the country went Liberal. This time, the country is going Conservative... especially in the Prairies. It will be much easier for her to win. Finally, her name recognition is very strong in comparison to last time.
08 01 06 Anonymous
This could be one of two Liberal pick ups in Manitoba in this election. The reason: Joy Smith won by a hair last time and she is WAY too conservative for this riding. The point has already been made that she complained when she lost her seat provincially to an NDP candidate who didn’t live in her Fort Garry riding. Now she says she’ll buy a house in the ridding! BAH! I live in south Winnipeg and I can tell you Fort Gary = South Winnipeg., Kildonan = North Winnipeg. Maybe for rural Alberta makes sense to have Smith, but not in urban devolving Winnipeg!
27 12 05 BTOrocks
Joy Smith will win this, the conservatives have a base of 13,600 voters here (historically). Last time Liberals gained +1500(from 2000 to 2004) and Dippers lost -1800 due to scare tactics. The Conservative incumbent should add votes for incumbency (political research say 5-8%)and the one lady from "other"(Christian Alliance or something)party had 267 votes last time, she was a right wing candidate and Joy Smith will take her vote this time as that party is not fielding a candidate. So that will boost Joy Smith over 14,000, add on her hard work and she is at 14,500. NDP will get much of their vote back from the Libs.
24 12 05 Bear and Ape
The NDP's strategy now is to focus on ridings they have and very nearly won in 2004. A smart move in our opinion, but that leaves this riding out in the cold. With the Liberals focusing hard on this riding they will likely woo the necessary NDP vote to win it. Joy Smith will put up a great fight, taking the rural and near-rural part of the riding but really this riding is not right-wing enough to ensure her a victory. One of the few Liberal pick ups, probably anywhere.
20 12 05 reido
I think this one goes Liberal. Nobody knew what to expect last time around because this was a new riding, with parts from 3 2000 ridings. Now that people saw how close it was in 2004, I predict ebnough NDP voters will switch to the Liberals to prevent the Conservatives from winning this one again.
19 12 05 Arun
I think this will be a solid win for the liberals this time around. Mrs. Smith's biggest weakness the first time was that she didn't live in the riding. This is normally not a big deal but she used the argument that she opponent didn't live in the riding when she lost provincially. And as far as I know she still doesn't live in the riding even though she swore she would immediately more in. Secondly the NDP are not targeting this riding this time around and now have a weak candidate at best. As you can see the NDP are not doing as well in the sign war as last time. This will bring more votes to the liberals.
15 12 05 Switch Hitter
Tough Race, but incumbency delivers for Joy Smith. She is a hard working MP and has met personally with many people in her riding. If you followed her schedule you would realize that she has not stopped campaigning since June 2004. Her name recognition is ten fold from last round.
Duguid is worse off then last time, Liberals are tainted, and the taint sticks to all of them.
12 12 05 Kildonan
Duguid will take this one back from Smith. Nearly 60% of the voters in this riding voted Liberal or NDP last time. Smith is way too conservative for this riding.
Smith is one of the most extreme social conservatives in the entire Conservative Caucus. She cried and screamed in the house during the gay marriage debate and has promised to re-open it. In the 2003 provincial election she said she would de-list abortion from medicare and ban the morning after pill.
Last time, it was a new riding, the field was open and the NDP thought they could take it. The close results (Con vs Lib) last time were less than 2 votes per poll. The NDP, in third, was more than 5,100 votes back.
The NDP have no chance and they know it. Duguid has a great record on progressive issues like the environment, as well as being a Liberal in the left-leaning Axworthy mold.
The NDP'ers hate Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. The NDP vote will collapse and Duguid will have a clear win.
10 12 05 Richard
This time around Duguid is going to do it. On Canada AM yesterday, the three candidates were involved in "speed voting" competition where undecided voters from the riding get to hear all three candidates' schpiels and then decide who they prefer. Duguid bested Smith 6-3 and the NDP got no votes.
Smith is an ultra-conservative who really is only known in the riding for crying during the same-sex marriage debate. She is a weak incumbent who only won by a handful of votes last election. This will be close but my prediction is a Liberal pick-up of this traditional Liberal seat.
08 12 05 James
Joy will win by a larger margin. I think people who think the liberals will win don't realize the growth of conservative type voters building and moving into the northern part of the riding or do they take into account the large amount of religious people who live in the riding. Issues like same sex marriage will be a hot topic here. The crime is becoming a big issue in this area as well and people consider the conservative party as the party who will fight crime.
07 12 05 Andrew M
In the last provincial election, one of Smith's biggest campaign issues was that her opponent did not live in the riding. She lost, and then ran federally in a riding where SHE didn't live. Nevertheless, she beat Duguid, a perennial brides maid, and she'll win again. Terry Duguid isn't the best candidate for the Liberals, but apparently, they either couldn't find a better candidate, or they don't feel this seat is in play anymore. Smith is, as mentioned, extremely right of center on social issues, but so are many of the residents in this riding. Look for a convincing win for the Conservatives here.
24 11 05 Craig
Conservative hold. While the Liberals are strong in the suburban Kildonan portion of the riding, the St. Paul portion tips the balance in favour of Joy Smith, especially considering that she is a very strong social conservative, and Liberal social issues like gay marriage are extremely unpopular there. The NDP should play spoiler with strong support in the southern part of the riding. Predicted results: CPC 40%, LIB 33%, NDP 22%, GRN 3%, others 1%.
16 11 05 MD
What about East St. Paul, Ron Schuler is the MLA and he is a PC'er. As well the there is a big difference between Doer and the Manitoba NDP and Layton and the federal NDP, this is especially important on the east side of the river. I have said it before and I will say it again, Joy will win.
15 11 05 Bear and Ape
This riding is a toss up, most likely a Liberal/CPC race with the NDP possibly being the spoiler. The part of the riding outside Winnipeg will likely go Conservative and the urban portion going mostly Liberal with a strong NDP pull from neighbouring ridings like Elmwood-Transcona and Winnipeg north. There is no one party that can fairly claim to be the likely winner here. Most interesting race to watch in Winnipeg.
08 11 05 Gerry
I feel this one will also be one to watch. Joy barely got in last year and those who feel she has been in the ridings doing so much? She proudly voted with her party against the NDP budget in a riding, believe it or not, benefits greatly from properly funded social programs, post secondary education, etc. When the riding is broken down provincially, they aside from River East vote NDP, will that translate on E-day, we'll have to wait and see.
08 09 05 jim
This one will be close. After losing last time, the liberals rewarded Terry Duguid by giving him a high paying government job, like Glen Murray out in charleswood who also lost. This does not sit well with the people in this riding. The NDP will gain here, but it will split the vote even further giving Joy a bigger win then last time. Smith knows she won by a nose and has been working hard to make sure it is a solid win next time. The liberals made a mistake picking Duguid again, they should have started fresh.
22 08 05 MD
New polling shows the Tories are still leading in Manitoba. The NDP is now in second place in Manitoba according to the polls and because of that I do not believe that NDP support from last time in Kildonan St. Paul will bleed to the Liberals. In fact I would bet that some of Duguid’s Liberal vote will go to the NDP this time. Still it will not be sufficient to beat Smith, who has been hard working and extremely visible over the past year.
02 07 05 Mathias
This was very close last time and Joy Smith was losing all night. I think this riding is too urban and too left wing to be expected to vote for the Conservatives again, especially since Joy Smith has turned out to be more right-wing than people expected. I also don't think the Liberals are feeling too much fall-out from the Sponsorship Scandal anymore and the Conservatives are actually polling lower in Manitoba than they did at last year's election. I bet the Liberals will promote another high profile candidate in this riding and take it back.
05 06 05 RJW
I don't know about this one. Smith is very, very conservative, too much so for this riding. I'm not sure that the Liberals can take it now that she's an incumbent though.
02 06 05 Aric H
Well looking at some numbers might be a good thing here. Obviously we can agree that this is not a right of centre riding since the Conservative here won by vote-splitting. If you take the 13,000 or so Liberal votes and add them to the 8,000 or so NDP votes, you can see that over 21,000 people voted for these candidates, whereas only around 13,000 or so voted for the Conservative. Essentially the NDP elected the Conservative and so if more NDPer's vote Liberal here, the Liberal could win.
10 05 05 Jason M
Joy Smith does not live in the riding. Dollars for doughnuts says a shovel is nowhere near the ground. I supported her last time, but I can't do it again. She is too right wing, and still not a resident. In terms of losing the seat, let's keep in mind that this would not be the first time she blew an incumbency and lost an election. She did the same thing as MLA at the other end of the city before they replaced her.
10 05 05 Tory Insider
Joy will hold on. She should soften her stance (ie. move to the centre) if she wants to increase her totals. Can't see a strong Liberal candidate wanting to run here after Duguid couldn't take it.
09 05 05 Dave Peterson
Well last I heard from Joy Smith's newsletters, she owns an empty lot in the area, but still doesn't live here. I feel she would have moved in a long time ago if she was serious about representing this riding. This is an easy tactic for the Liberals to use to win this riding. The fact she didn't live here last time hurt her, and it will be stronger this time around.
04 05 05 MD
Smith will win once again with increased numbers, but this will still not be a runaway. She has purchased a house in the area and her profile in Kildonan St. Paul is much higher then last June. As an MP Smith has been very hard working, opening 2 offices in Kildonan St. Paul and holding a number for public meetings.
04 05 05 Jack
I can't see how the Conservatives would lose this seat... it was close last time, but voter anger against the Liberals should be greater this time around. Don't forget that Joy didn't even live in the riding last time, whereas this time she does (or is in the process of building a house here). I think you'll see the NDP come up and finish second here.
03 05 05 A. Vancouverite
I wouldn't completely count the NDP out yet, one should remember the popularity of Gary Doer. Apparently 79% of people approved of his performance as Premier according to the latest EKOS poll. If they could get him to endorse and make it obvious that he supports the NDP candidate then they could have a good shot. That being said they have quite the difficult task I'd suspect they'd need a moderate high profile candidate sort of like a mini Doer.
If the Liberals can recover and play the "Harper is scary" card, properly again, then they could win the riding. But that's an outside shot as well.
Even though Joy Smith is quite right-wing she did win last time. It's really a hard riding to handicap, I'd give her a slight edge over the competition, but I agree with those that say this will be the most competitive, if not the only realistically competitive riding in the province. A three-way split is almost a gurantee.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
I certainly hope Joy Smith loses her seat, but I wouldn't count on it happening. The NDP is too far behind to take this, while the liberals have declined although not by as much in Manitoba. Also she was a former provincial MLA so her right wing views were known before last election. That said, this is probably one of only two Manitoba ridings, the other being Charleswood-St. James, where the incumbents aren't 100% safe. And Charleswood-St. James will probably stay Conservative since Stephen Fletcher is an asset to the party so this is the only riding that I would say there is a fair chance of it changing hands. Still I would give the Conservatives a slight advantage.
02 05 05 Paul
I can't see Joy Smith holding on to this seat. This riding does not really reflect the views she holds. Terry is not the right man for the job, but he is the better man for the job then Joy.
26 04 05 JC
This will go Liberal, Joy Smith is way too right wing for this riding and she barely won this last time. She will lose, albeit barely.

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