2:19 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
2:03 AM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Jeremy Harrison
Anita Jackson
John A. McDonald
Gary Merasty

Jeremy Harrison

2004 Result:
Jeremy Harrison
Al Ducharme
Earl Cook
Rick Laliberte
Marcella Gall

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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16 01 06 Derek G.
This won't be a pickup for the NDP or Liberals. The NDP candidate has run a decent campaign, which is more than can be said about their election campaign last election. I'm not sure the vast majority of voters are aboriginal. The Conservative Party has stated it believes in the principles of the Kelowna agreement. The Conservative Party has been endorsed by the Canadian Aboriginal Congress. So add that with the endorsement of Harry Cook, and I would expect to see Jeremy Harrison gain in support from the aboriginal communities. I do have to agree with DL that the Liberal vote is collapsing and any reson to vote for Gary Merasty is gone.
I am not sure if B.Post has talked to individuals in the riding but Gary Merasty is known among aboriginal chiefs, and that is it. He is not a high-profile candidate or even a high profile candidate. The independent vote would not have automatically went to the Liberals if Laliberte had not run. His support could easily go to the NDP. As Gary Merastys mentor Harry Cook stated the race of Jeremy Harrison has not played and should not play a role in this election, given his record has been a great one for aboriginals. Gary Merasty has failed to state where he stands on important issues in this riding. He has failed to state his position regarding the gun registry, if he supports the Liberals voting against aboriginal war vets, opposing funding for Metis Residential Schools survivors, the canoe registry. Jeremy Harrison will increase his support from the last election and will be re-elected on January 23.
15 01 06 DL
I'm hearing rumours now that this may be a surprise pick-up for the NDP. As has been pointed out the vast majnority of the voters are Aboriginal and the CPC promised to tear up signed agreements on native issues such as the Kelowna Accord is not going over well. The Liberal vote is in collapse. The only thing they ever had going for them was the idea of electing someone on the government side to ensure more hand-outs to the reserves. Now that it is clear that the Liberals are losing, there is no longer any reason to vote for them. Laliberte is not running so his 2,000 votes are freed up. Provincially this area is a virtual NDP one-party state and the NDP machine is going at full throttle to elect the New Democrat.
14 01 06 B.Post
Very high profile candidate running for the Liberals this time and no independent to bleed off Liberal votes this time. The incumbent being non-aboriginal also will help Merasty for the Liberals. That being said, there seems to be a bit of a stampede towards the PC's going on right now and if that is true they may surprise here as well, but I doubt it. Recent PC announcement by Solberg that they would not honour native funding agreement another leg up for Merasty.
28 12 05 Derek G.
This is an actually easy riding to predict, even though Steve would like to say it’s impossible. He points out that all three parties held this riding, which is true but that was with the same individual as the MP. The Liberal candidate is rather unknown to the average voter. He may be known well in some communities but in others nobody has ever heard of him. Also the different divisions in the riding among Aboriginal groups will most likely hurt Gary Merasty. Factor in the fact that he does not live in the riding, and the fact his main campaign office is not in the riding have made some voters wonder just what kind of Member of Parliament Merasty would be if elected. Merasty also has to deal with the fact the Liberal Party voted against Harrisons motion on recognizing the contribution Aboriginal War Veterans made, voting for more funding for the gun registry, the idea of a canoe registry and now the ban on handguns. Not sure where Steve gets the idea the NDP have been campaigning like crazy, maybe in certain spots of the riding but not the entire riding. The only attack to come out from the NDP was Harrison taking credit for getting the Alberta government to agree to building the all weather road. And an attack like that can only help. Harrison will be able to hold onto his rural base of supportin including Meadow Lake given these communities have seen him during his time in office, and the fact he held 30 town hall meetings in the riding. A number which puts him at the top of MPs who held town hall meetings to listen to voters. The CBC did a report on this riding, and during that Harrison was endorsed by two Chiefs who did not support him last election. They both agreed that in a little more than a year Harrison has done more for Aboriginals than when the NDP held this seat for around four years, and when the Liberals held this seat for four years. This means Harrison will be able to gain support in Aboriginal communities. This riding will most likely re-elect Jeremy Harrison on January 23.
19 12 05 Steve Lloyd
This one is just too close to call, it could go any of three ways and anyone who thinks they have the answer is kidding themselves. All three parties have hled this seat in the last decadeThe Conservative is the incumbant, the Liberal is very well-known and respected, and the NDP'r has been campaigning like crazy for months, and is well-connected provincially (where the NDP hold both seats in this riding). This seat is going to be one to watch on election day.
18 12 05 Christian Socialism
Once again this huge northern riding is a complete tossup dependent on turnout and factional factors; to be honest I'm not even sure if it'll be close or not, let alone who'll end up winning.
Harrison will poll extremely well in Meadow Lake (which actually has a Dipper representing it provincially; not sure how much of the provincial district Meadow Lake makes up though) and most of the other agricultural settlements towards the south of the riding. Just like last time. And just like last time he will poll extremely badly (in many polls he probably won't take a single vote). His electoral fate is basically out of his hands; all he can do is try to get a high turnout in Meadow Lake et al and hope like hell that the rest of the riding doesn't even begin to think about uniting around one candidate. Or turnout in huge numbers. Or both.
As for Laliberte's vote... seeing as it was largely concentrated around the various communities around Lake Athabasca, I'd assume that it'd "naturally" flow Dipperward... although with this riding 'tis probably better not to assume *anything*...
16 12 05 love, sydney
A lot of rural issues will come to play in swaying pockets of voters, while the individual candidates can expect a solid core of supporters in what has tended to be a small c-conservative region. As with nearly all close ridings, the national trend over the final 2 weeks will likely firm up the final result. I can't see Harrison losing this with what the conservatives have tossed out there - it's what the Grits can propose/stir up over the final 2 weeks that may cause a possible change of hands. Still, likely a Tory hold, though my Saskatchewan contacts are a little disillusioned with Harper, but still heavily favour the change mantra.
14 12 05 Derek G.
Has John ever talked to people in this riding? The individuals I talk to have no idea who Gary Merasty is. Besides the local band councils who would have come into contact with Mr. Merasty he is a rather unknown candidate. In fact he does not even live in the riding and his main campaign office is also not in the riding. This is not going to be an easy Liberal win, expect Mr. Harrison to be re-elected come January 23.
12 12 05 John
I expect the Liberals should be able to grasp this riding with no
problem. Gary Merasty is a well-respected and well known candidate
in the north, being a former Grand Chief. Expect Gary to be elected and
represent the constituents of Desnethe Missinipe Churchill River in Ottawa on January 23rd!
08 12 05 EE
I think that this handgun ban idea will have resisdual effect across Northern ridings that the Liberals hoped to potential steal... not that the Handgun ban will really affect this area. But it is something that the Conservatives can use as *ahem* ammo, to mobilize general discontent in the Prairies over things such as the Gun Registry... potentially giving an old issue, new life.
07 12 05 Steve G
Considering the aboriginal community was already rock-solid Liberal, I hardly think that the former Grand Chief's candidacy will sway many votes away from the other parties. Rick Laliberte started off as an NDPer and his supporters are probably as likely to sway NDP as they are Liberal. Saskatchewan is trending conservative at both the provincial (I think the Saskatchewan Party will win the next prov. election) and federal levels, and the Harper Tories should have no problem retaining all of their Saskatchewan seats.
06 12 05 Stan
Mitch must be living under a rock because Jeremy Harrison has done alot for the riding. Including fighting the gun registry the Liberals put in, putting forward what Mitch calls a useless bill recognizing the contribution Aboriginal War Veterans made, something no other MP has done, and also fighting the idea of a canoe registry.
01 12 05 Mitch
Harrison got lucky last election, with Laliberte splitting the Liberal vote. He hasn't even done anything as an MP, aside from introducing random bills and almost losing his seat because his staff didn't know how to do paperwork. Even if Mirasty doesn't run, I bet the Grits will take the seat.
29 11 05 Derek G.
The Liberals do not even have a candidate yet, and even if Gary Maristy does run, the fact Jeremy Harrison has been a very good MP hurts his shots. Laliberte took votes from all sides, so it is extremely ignorant to say if he would not have run the Liberals would have won.
27 11 05 Gregor Burton
This riding will go back to the Liberals, guaranteed.
The last time, the only reason the Liberals lost is because the then-incumbent, Laliberte, was running as an independent against Al Ducharme.
26 11 05 dene tha
The Liberal Party will definitely win this riding. Former Grand Chief Gary Maristy will take this riding for the Liberals, he has the support of the Aboriginal leaders and many municipal leaders from the small cities and towns.
01 10 05 Travis
Jeremy Harrison will be re-elected. Unlike the statement from some who think Mr. Harrison doesn't have the support of aboriginals is completely false. Mr. Harrison has worked extremely hard for aboriginals and they know that. As for the statement that Mr. Harrisons views do not represent the riding? The last time a Liberal was the MP for this riding, he spent more on travel than any other MP and could not explain where he went, hardly what people in the riding want to happen again. Thats why many aboriginals are happy with his work on aboriginal veterans, and most likely the person who said this does not live in the riding, or is simply living under a rock. Soaring in the polls? According to most recent polls the Conservative party is coming back, so relying on a prediction based on polls is really a bad idea. Aboriginal regions of the riding will have no reason to try and get Mr. Harrison defeated as he has been working extremely hard for them. Mr. Harrison will be re-elected.
26 09 05
The Liberals should have no problem winning this seat, just as long as they don't get caught up in an internal squabble. Harrison is in there as a fluke and most residents around these parts don't believe that his views and approach are representative of the region. Ralph Goodale will finally have another Liberal MP in the Saskatchewan caucus.
20 09 05 Jared
This riding is for sure to go Liberal this time round. The Liberals are soaring in the polls in the west which will in turn hurt Jeremy Harrison. Jeremy's victory in the riding is somewhat accidental. Most of his support was obtained in the rural farm regions of the riding. His support was gained from the the non-aboriginal vote from the Meadow Lake and farming region, which most of the riding is composed of 30 000 aboriginal voters. If you do the math, you see that there is a misrepresentation. Only a Liberal candidate will attract the aboriginal votes in this riding and of course, its on the rise.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
Jeremy Harrison is generally a strong MP and well-respected even amongst aboriginals who generally don't vote conservative. However, this is riding that votes more for local candidates as opposed to party as the ridings further South do so the liberals or NDP could take this if they put up a strong candidate, but at this point I would say Jeremy Harrison will probably be re-elected.
25 08 05 Ted W.
It doesn't sound like anybody writing on here actually lives in the north. Harrison has done a good job although sometimes I think we might get a few too many surveys. The aboriginal people like the work he's done for aboriginal veterans. I haven't met anybody who thinks that he should be booted out, even though they might not like the Conservative party. He has done a hell of a lot more for the north than Laliberte ever did, as a Liberal or NDP'er.
09 08 05 Travis
The arguments on the Aboriginal population might have some actual meaning if Jeremy Harrison would not have been able to win some of the aboriginal vote in 2004, but given that he did win some of the vote goes to show just how weak that argument is. Jeremy Harrison has done a lot for the Aboriginal population of Canada, like M-193 and also fighting the Liberal canoe registry which will hurt the income of many Aboriginal individuals in Northern Saskatchewan. As for the rest of what Wilf Day posted, I am not sure if he is posting a resume on the internet for the NDP candidate or is actually making a prediction.
I do appreciate Liberal making it very clear that he is biased towards the Liberal candidate. Liberal though needs to understand that the vote from Rick Laliberte would not have automatically went to the Liberal candidate if he had not ran, because Rick Laliberte at one point was an NDP MP and also in 1993 ran as a independent candidate. The Liberals under Paul Martin have a horrible record when it comes to helping Aboriginals in Northern Saskatchewan. The Liberal canoe registry will hurt many Aboriginals’ incomes. The Conservative party has policy that will improve the lives of aboriginals in Northern Saskatchewan and Canada, i.e. self government, right to own their own property on reserves. It was the Conservative party that did what should have be done along before and gave aboriginals the right to vote, and also the first Aboriginal Senator was appointed under a Conservative government. If Liberal could point out what the Liberal government has done for Aboriginals, besides creating the canoe registry which will cost many individuals part of their income. Jeremy Harrison has represented the Aboriginal population in his riding by fighting the Liberal canoe registry, by pushing for the Athabasca road to be finally completed, and because of all the hard work that Jeremy Harrison has done when it comes to representing the Aboriginal population not only in his riding but in Canada he is the critic for Métis and Non-Status Indians. It will be a close race, but Jeremy Harrison will be re-elected.
27 07 05 Liberal
This riding will go Liberal in the next election. Previous election,
Rick Laliberte running as an independent, split the Liberal vote against
the Liberal candidate. The NDP support is dropping dramatically in
the north and we will see more support going towards the Liberals as the Liberals have a strong, committed policy towards aboriginals and a proven track record with Paul Martin as Prime Minister. The aboriginal vote remains strong in Northern Saskatchewan and aboriginals don't see the Conservative Party as representing their needs in the north especially with regards to Aboriginal policy. The aboriginal population in the north realizes that the Conservative party has done absolutely nothing in regards to policy to improve the living conditions and standards to aboriginal population in the north. With a strong Liberal candidate predicted in this riding, will prove to be a great challenge against Alliance Conservative Jeremy Harrison.
09 07 05 Wilf Day
Considering that young Jeremy Harrison got only 37.4% of the vote last time, and the riding in 64% aboriginal, and Al Ducharme got only 29.9% last time and has no great reason to do better this time, that leaves the NDP's new candidate Anita Jackson, a member of the Lac La Ronge Indian Band who has been employed with the Department of Social Services and worked as a health director of the Lac La Ronge Indian Band. She has also served on the boards of The Native Women's Association of Canada, Saskatchewan Mental Health Advisory Council and Saskatchewan Legal Aid Commission, and is currently employed as a constituency assistant to Cumberland MLA Joan Beatty. Sounds like a winner.
23 05 05 Travis
All one has to do is look at the history of the riding, and they would see that this riding is traditionally split between the conservative party at the time and the NDP/CCF. There are periods where the Liberals did hold this seat, 2000 election being one of them. The aboriginal vote does make a difference in which party will win this riding. Given Mr. Harrison's hard work as the MP voters in this riding including aboriginal voters will have a hard time being convinced that a hardworking MP should go. Look for Mr. Harrison to be re-elected.
17 05 05 Travis
According to Ryan this is a traditional NDP or Liberal riding not because of who has won this riding before or the past ridings that make it up, but based on the aboriginal population. Which in most situations might be right, except Jeremy Harrison has done a great job as the MP for representing the aboriginal population. The aboriginal population has no reason to vote out Jeremy Harrison as he has taken on the Federal Liberal government when it came to M-193 and fighting for those survivors of residential schools.
Ryan also makes the mistake and thinking that if Rick Laliberte did not run, all of his votes would have went Liberal. This is completely false as Rick Laliberte was first elected as an NDP MP.
19 05 05 Travis
All one has to do is to look at the history of this riding he would see that this is a traditional conservative riding as much as it is a traditional NDP or Liberal riding. The aboriginal vote will make a difference, and since Mr. Harrison has worked extremely hard on aboriginal issues I think he will be gaining support from aboriginal communities. You can not make the assumption that if Rick Laliberte would not have ran all the votes he had would have went Liberal. This is the one rural riding which is not a guarantee for the Conservative party, but given how hard Mr. Harrison has been working it will be very hard to convince voters that a hard working MP needs to go.
14 05 05 Ryan
It is quite a bit of Tory self-delusion to think that this isn't a very worrying riding for them. This is a traditionally NDP or Liberal leaning seat due to the large aboriginal population. That also makes it very difficult to predict, as their voter turn out levels will make all the difference.
Last time, if Independent didn't run, then Libs would have won this one. With out the vote splitting, if the Liberals can recruite a well respected Aboriginal candidate, then they are in good shape and Sask may bring to Ottawa a minimun of 2 Liberals (Goodale and Northern seat) and perhaps more, depending on the campaign.
04 05 05 Travis
All one has to do is look back to the 2000 election where the Canadian Alliance came in second place, to see that the Conservative party can win this riding without having a vote split. Mr. Harrison has been doing a great job as MP, and individuals in all parts of the riding know this. People in the southern part of the riding are very happy to know that Mr. Harrison has been working extremely hard for them, and in the North they are also happy with the job Mr. Harrison has done, like putting forward and passing M-193 something all Metis leaders were pleased with.
As for this riding going Liberal? Come on, the Liberals are very unpopular in the southern part of the riding, and the fact Mr. Harrison has been doing a great job, so voters will have a hard time being convinced of getting rid of such a good MP. Look for Mr. Harrison to be re-elected.
04 05 05 Nick Boragina
Not even close. The tories have won this riding before federally, and provincially have done well here too. There are enough farming communities dotting the southern edge of this riding to couter weigh the traditional socialists who live up north. The tories will win here again.
03 05 05 M. Lunn
A liberal win is certainly possible, but I don't think one can assume all votes for Rick Laliberte will go to the liberals, since he was originally elected as an NDP member in 1997. In fact local candidates have a larger impact in Northern ridings than elsewhere so a strong candidate from the NDP could even pull off a surprise victory. That being said, I still give Jeremy Harrison the advantage, however he is the only Rural Saskatchewan Conservative MP who is not 100% safe.
03 05 05 RWA
Harrison benefited last time from the Liberal incumbant running as an Independent. He works the riding hard, but without the three way vote split, will probably not hang on.

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