12:05 PM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:10 PM 16/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Dave Batters
Jo-Anne Dusel
Canadian Action
Marcia Fogal
Larissa Shasko
John Williams

Dave Batters

2004 Result:
Dave Batters
Dick Proctor
John Williams
Brian Rands
Harold Stephan

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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15 01 06 ridersrgr8
This one is over. A story in the Regina Leader Post with the headline "Conservative in Command in Palliser." Their poll show the Conservative at 42%, the NDP at 30% and the Liberals at 22%.
Put a fork in the NDP and Libs on this one; their done.
14 01 06 Regina
The Regina Leader Post released an opinion poll today that had Batters (42%)with a 12 point lead over Dusel (30%). Williams was far back in third (22%). Palliser is made up of Moose Jaw (50-55% of the votes); a rural area (10-15%) and the south west quadrant of Regina (30-35%). In Regina, Cathedral is the core NDP area. Williams will have some strength around Lakeview. If lawn signs are any indication, Batters will do better in South Regina than he did in 2004 when he won only a couple of polls. The rural area should, as in 2004, go very strongly for the Conservatives. This leaves Moose Jaw as the key. If the opinion poll is even close to accurate it must reflect which way Moose Jaw is leaning.
14 01 06 Jacqueline Roy
This could be won by both the Conservatives or New Democrats. Although Dave Batters has the advantage of being the incumbent, I don't think that advantage should overstated. But more importantly, we can't say that Ms. Dusel is going to lose a lot of the vote because she is not Dick Proctor. Most Saskatchewan NDP voters when looked at closely generally don't vary their vote based on who is running for the NDP. It's the party line that accounts for the almost all of the voting.
13 01 06 Christian Socialism
One interesting thing about the 2004 result here was that, despite everything, Proctor's vote held up extremely well (it's also interesting to note that he was behind the "united right" in 2000). Now I'm not sure whether that's good news for the NDP here or not; if the reason for this was *largely* down to a personal vote, then Palliser could be a much, much harder takeback than first meets the eye, if on the other hand, it's due to some [relative] longterm pro-NDP trend in the area or just due to NDP support being based on solider voters than elsewhere, then it's obviously very good news indeed. I'm tempted to think the former, but I could well be wrong. Either way a good race to be had.
And doesn't the fact that it's just about impossible to work out from the polls which party has any momentum or whathaveyou in Saskatchewan add to the excitement?
28 02 05 Steve Perry
This general area of Saskatchewan has historically fluctuated between CCF-NDP and PC-Reform-Alliance-CPC members for several generations.
Despite the proliferation of NDP lawn signs in the Cathedral area of Regina, this will be a close but far more comfortable win for Mr. Batters on Jan. 23rd. The NDP have a inexperienced candidate in Ms. Dusel with views out of step with much of Palliser's residents.
Besides, if Moose Jaw and southwest Regina west of Albert St. were removed from the equation, we would have a riding that would likely swing 60% Tory.
23 12 05 Long-Time Reader, First-Time Poster
This riding has the potential to be a very close race and there is much time left in the campaign. Batters has the obvious advantage of incumbency.
I do not understand Gregor Burton's argument that John Williams will "pick up votes in his home town of Moose Jaw." The Liberals may generally do better throughout the riding without Dick Proctor, but why would the fact that John is from Moose Jaw carry dramatically more votes there this time than it did a year and a half ago?
One might think that left-wing voters who, in 2004, were lulled into voting Green by a false sense of security, or spooked into "strategically" voting Liberal by a false sense of insecurity, would get behind the NDP. However, people are not nearly so predictable.
12 12 05 Sask person
In the last 14 general elections the Liberals have never won Moose Jaw and have won the Regina portion once(1993) The Liberals are DOA in Palliser.
It's a Conservative NDP race only. The NDP is saddled with a deeply unpopular provincial government (Sask Party 51% NDP 29%) a rooky left left wing candidate and a Toronto leader. Batters should clean up.
08 12 05 Mike White
This will be a close one again but I'm thinking that Jo-Anne Dusel can pull out a gain for the NDP in Saskatchewan. People now recognise the Liberal scare tactics of the last campaign backfired with the election of Dave Batters. Traditional NDP voters will return to the fold helping Dusel. Some of the slip in Liberal votes will go to Batters, but my feeling is that slightly more (and that's all it will take) will go to the NDP.
01 12 05 MDF+
If you cherry pick the best part of the riding for the Liberals, they STILL came in BEHIND the NDP. Rider fan offers this up as evidence of the inevitable Liberal steamroller.
This is a Conservative - NDP race. The Conservatives are probably in front right now. Batters has been the most effective of the threee Tory MPs in Regina (damning with faint praise that). Joanne Dusel lacks the public profile of Dick Proctor. But apart from dedicated Liberals and his former law clients, nobody knows who John Williams is.
27 11 05 Gregor Burton
John Williams will win Regina without Dick Proctor running, and pick up votes in his home town of Moose Jaw. Has anyone failed to notice the slow, but steady rise of Liberal support in this riding? I worked this campaign last time round, and I know.
Dave Batters can give his redundant, cliche-filled speaches all he wants. We all know that the real political animal in that family is his wife - who leads her "puppet" because she knows social-conservative voters won't give this seat to a woman.
Just watch. John Williams will win Round 2.
04 10 05 M. Lunn
I can tell right now, the liberals will not win this. It will be between the NDP and the Conservatives. Last time around, the NDP was hurt by an unpopular provincial budget as well as some fell for Martin's plea to vote liberal to stop Stephen Harper, which mades sense in Ontario, but actually helped the Conservatives in Saskatchewan. This time those some people will likely not make the same mistake. However, with Dick Proctor not running again and the Conservatives now having the incumbent advantage, it is still too early to tell. The poll numbers for Saskatchewan, unlike Ontario, are unreliable since they have been all over the map due to size of the sample. Conservatives have ranged from low 30s to high 40s while NDP low 20s to high 30s so I think we need to wait until a poll is taken for Saskatchewan only where there will be a large enough sample size.
25 08 05 rider fan
I have been reading the comments and figure that all the NDP wannabees have been writing in. I live in the seat and can tell you that the LIberals were only 3500 votes out but more importantly were only 100 votes behind Proctor in REgina-Batters ran a poor third in Regina but cleaned up in Moose Jaw. Proctor was personally very popular in the seat and carried a lot of the soft ndp/liberal vote in south Regina. The NDP have nominated a unionist who will do poorly in south Regina. Remember this used to part of Goodale's seat and every poll voted overwhelmingly for him in 1993 before he was minister of anything. So Williams will win Regina -but will it be by enough to carry the seat? Tune in, but this one is definitely not going NDP!! They will run a poor third....
05 07 05 Travis
I agree with Bear and Ape the NDP are far from out of the race for this riding. This is a possible pick up for them if they run a strong campaign both locally and federally. But one has to look at the fact that the NDP support has gone done in rural ridings both provincially and federally. Mr. Batters has the upper hand of not only being the incumbent but with the fact he was able to win a good number of urban votes in the last election shows he is able to win in rural/urban areas.
20 06 05 Bear and Ape
We have alot of respect for the postings predicting a Conservative win (Travis, ML, etc) as the reasonings seem rational, however we both feel that the NDP are definitely not out in this or a number of other urban/rural Saskatchewan ridings. It's true that the Conservatives will sweep the rural polls and that with the incumbency will help them greatly. However the urban portion of the riding is likely inclined to vote Conservative and if the choice is either NDP or scandal-laiden Liberal, they're likely to vote NDP. Bottom line, way too close to call but do not discount the NDP yet.
23 05 05 Travis
Mr. Batters is the incumbent which will give him the edge in the next election. He also has the bonus that Mr. Proctor is not running again. The Liberal vote will make the difference, and I expect that if any Liberal voters vote for a different party it willl go to Mr. Batters. Once again a close race on election night, but expect Mr. Batters to be re-elected.
30 10 05 ML
As much as I loved Procter and was upset at him losing his seat, this should generally be considered a safe Conservative seat. Federally, the NDP cannot keep up with the Conservatives in Saskatchewan. Look for NDP success in urban British Columbia and Ontario, not in the praries, with the exception of a few safe seats in Manitoba.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Considering the Conservatives only won by 120 votes and that the NDP hasn't been hurt by the Sponsorship Scandal, this could go either way. Even without Dick Proctor running, a lot will depend on which way the liberal vote goes. Since most of those who vote liberal federally go NDP provincially, I suspect the NDP will do better. Therefore this is too close to call. The only ridings won by less than 200 votes that can be called at this point are liberal ridings in Quebec, which will go Bloc Quebecois.
02 05 05 MDF+
By rights, this is a seat where the NDP should be competitive. It was the Martin demonization tactic that (ironically) delivered this seat to the Conservatives in the dying days by diverting votes from the close second Proctor to the distant third Liberal irrelevance. In the urban areas where the Liberal did well, Liberal voters are more likely to swing NDP than Conservative.
All that being said, Dick Proctor has indicated he is not running, which means the NDP candidate is likely to be a relative unknown. I haven't heard any great rumours, although young Erin Weir, who made a respectable showing against Goodale in neighbouring Wascana could be scouting about for a more fertile prospect.
Batters has actually performed moderately well, unlike some of his embarrassing caucus colleagues. I was actually quite impressed with him after the first time I met him. Even knowing that I support a different party, he actually asked for the chance to earn my support - a degree of humility unusual among most politicians.
And a corruption election (if such it will be) tends to play well for anti-government populists like these ex-Reformers.
While I'm not prepared to predict yet, the seat is probably leaning Conservative, but a good NDP candidate could make it a race. Batters (partisanship aside) has the makings of a good constituency MP if he can survive.
And I will dispute the other poster's assertion that Layton doesn't play well here. Layton has more of the populist flair which used to be the strength of the Reform Alliance. Harper, by comparison, has all the populist sentiment of a garden slug.
02 05 05 A. Vancouverite
Why is this being predicted as a Conservative hold!? They won by less than 200 votes? This riding could go either way.
27 04 05 Doorknocker
Rumour has it that former NDP MP Dick Proctor isn't going to run, which gives Tory MP Dave Batters an edge over the NDP candidate. The real question is what happens to the Liberal vote; if enough of it bleeds to the NDP then Batters could lose. On the other hand Layton doesn't play well here, plus he's just made a deal with the Liberals -- that, combined with Batters' incumbency, might do the trick.

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