2:19 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:47 PM 10/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Gary Anderson
Moe Kovatch
Tom Lukiwski
Bill Sorochan

Tom Lukiwski

2004 Result:
Tom Lukiwski
Gary Anderson
Moe Kovatch
Larry Spencer
Fiorindo Agi

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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17 01 06 JT
Lukiwski will hold this seat for two reasons. 1) The majority of those who voted for Larry Spencer in 2004 will vote CPC.2) The NDP voters who voted Liberal to block Harper will mostly swing back to the NDP widening the gap between Lukiwski and Anderson.
13 01 06 MBP
I'm not sure why this has shifted to the Conservative column, as in reality it is way too close to call. Given what is below, I'm still going to side Liberal.
Some thoughts:
1) Gary personal popularity in the riding is well ahead of the party, due to his work with Agribition and presence in the farming community.
2) While the national polling numbers have all shifted, it seems to me that they have remained relatively consistent within Western Canada. Given how close it was last time, this means that it is still a two horse race.
3) The NDP are a non-entity in the riding, focusing instead Regina-Qu'Appelle, where they stand a reasonable chance of winning.
4) The traditional NDP nature of the riding provincially, I think that there will be a shift from the NDP to the Liberals in the dying days, if only to stop the conservatives.
5) Building on that, Gary is much stronger on agricultural issues, and his stature within the community should win him more than enough votes in the rural part of the riding.
03 01 06 Deep Dish
I did some partisan work during the last election - so I spoke to a lot of people and seen some data most people didn't, Spencer seemed a lot stronger than he turned out to be and the Liberals looked to be off the radar - so much for that idea. Last time, the NDP candidate probably lost quite a number of votes to the Liberals, and a stronger candidate would stand a good chance of winning the seat. Tom L, seems to have consolidated his position a bit and I expect each of the candidates to top 29%. Green support will be about 2%.
My gut says Tory win without much change from the last election, but the Liberal vote could easily collapse and give the NDP a big win.
19 12 05 Steve Lloyd
This one will be a close three-way race as many posters have pointed out. I will give the NDP a very slight edge becasue of the following points. 1st - history: this riding has been an NDP stronghold for years and they hold almost all the provincial seats in this riding, 2nd - Strategy: people who want to stop conservative voters saw in the last election what voting liberal did, it elected consrevatives. If 2000 (or less than 8% ov voters) voted liberal on the "scare campaign" that they ran last time (which I admit is a matter of speculation) then that will give the NDP a couple of hundred votes win - if everyone stays roughly where they were last time. I can't see the liberals gaining, and I can't see the conservatives gaining either, so this seems like a safe assumption. I admit that I stand to be corrected on election day, buf for now I am givin this (however slighly) to the NDP
16 12 05 love, sydney
Truly a close battle that three parties have their eyes legitimately on. And there's one factor here that hurts the Tories, that incumbency doesn't hold as much sway coming off a short-minority parliament as it does during a majority term. Lukawisky doesn't have a rock-steady profile and his party's stall across the prairies has cost them important traction. While Anderson has built up his machine and reloaded. The NDP may not be the deciding factor, as their reliance on urban big-city issues won't play as well in the suburb. I'm thinking the margin will be the same, but this time in Anderson's favour.
03 12 05 The Diefenbaker Man
A lot of NDP voters who voted for Liberal Gary Anderson in the last election are going to return back to the NDP fold -- so the Liberal NDP
vote will be split enough for Lukiwski to win.
Also keep in mind Larry Spencer's 1500 votes from last year will no doubt return to the Conservative Party and given all of that Lukiwski will win by a decent margin.
30 11 05 Gregor Burton
The NDP does not have a chance here. As was previously pointed out, they lost 4,000 votes from 2000 to 2004, and will loose more this time around. Voters in this riding have seen that Gary Anderson is a legitimate candidate, and came very close to winning last time. Do not be surprised to see a great percentage of NDP vote bleed to the Liberals.
Gary Anderson is an extremely strong candidate. Last time, he won a hotly-contested nomination, and was a first-time candidate, with little real political experience. He knows agriculture, and he is popular. With the experience of the last campaign behind him, Anderson will surely oust Likiwski.
03 10 05 Nick Boragina
I dont think this should be a certain CPC riding. This election is going to be a tough one for this site, especially when it comes to the CPC-Lib vote. This riding could be won by either the Liberals or the NDP, any riding in Regina really has that chance, but of the CPC ridings in the city, this one moreso.
02 10 05 Mike D
Why is this in the Conservative column? Just look at the results from last time. The Liberals came so close, and the NDP will probably do a bit better as the provincial government is less of a problem. The Conservatives are going to lose a few seats, and with a total nobody for an incumbent, this could quite possibly be one of them.
19 09 05 MDF+
Certainly the NDP federally was hurt by the provincial government's tough budget. But Moe was also a weak candidate. And he's been nominated again.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
Any of the three major parties have a decent shot at taking this. The NDP did poorly last year due to the unpopularity of the provincial NDP at the time, but since then, they are up 10 points in Saskatchewan and you can be sure Jack Layton will work hard to make sure the NDP is not shut out of its birthplace again. Also the liberals would have won this riding had it not been for the advanced polls and their support is equally spread out while NDP support is mostly limited to Regina and Conservative support to the rural areas. The Conservatives could also take it again since Larry Spencer got 5% and his votes will most likely go Conservative especially as the Conservatives are more up front about their social conservatism and opposition to same-sex marriage. I will make one prediction that no party will crack the 40% mark in this riding.
14 09 05 Steve from Lumsden
This riding should go Conservative for a third straight time. Lukiwski is very popular in the rural areas and should improve in Regina over the last election.
05 07 05 Mike from Regina
I find the posts on this site to be quite amusing. I am not sure if the people who are posting are from Regina or not but they have some very, very interesting opinions. First the NDP lost four thousand votes in the 2004 election. This was, I stress was and NDP riding but you don't lose 4000 votes and than gain them back. If anyone is going to beat the Conservatives it will be Gary Anderson and the Liberals. Anderson has rural roots within the riding and did very well for a Liberal in those rural areas. He also won the city of Regina. NDPers would be smart to forget this riding as a possible pick up and focus their efforts on Palliser and Qu'Appelle where they were actually second in the last election. I see this being another very close race but if Anderson can keep the rural votes he picked up and add some NDPers who are sick of living in a province with 13 Conservative MPs than Anderson could make this riding a Liberal pickup.
20 06 05 Bear and Ape
Why is this listed for the Conservatives and not too close to call? There was no right wing vote splitting in Spencer running as an independent last year and both the Liberals and NDP did well. This is a 3 way race. The rural part of the riding will vote Conservative, however the urban portion will be more to the left and those 10K votes for the liberals may dwindle in light of the sponsorship scandal. Where will those votes go? The answer to that question may make or break this riding. As of now, too close to call.
12 05 05 bkj
This is not a traditional Con. riding. The con won last time in a very close three way race. Last time the NDP gov and jsut introduced a very tough budget. This hurt federal races a lot. The province has a lot more money now. The liberals are going down. People will have two real choices ndp and con. In this riding that equals and NDP victory.
03 05 05
Again quite the close result expected. The NDP finished third here, but not too far behind the Conservatives or the Liberals who barely finished behind the Conservatives. Larry Spencer was pretty much a non-entity only drawing 1,506 votes -- but that could be decisive in a very close election. It's likely that the NDP could win enough of the former Liberal voters to pull off a victory, but it's by no means a gurantee. The Calvert goverment isn't doing too badily anymore due to it's new "have" status, and the fact that the Saskatchewan Party (read the conservative option) hasn't been comptent to knock them off even though the NDP only has a one seat majority. In any case it should be an intresting race.
03 05 05 M. Lunn
I don't think the Conservatives have this locked up. This was traditionally an NDP stronghold up until 2000 and the main reasons the Conservatives won was because many NDP voters voted liberal to stop Stephen Harper. If those people return to the NDP, they could win this riding. Likewise Larry Spencer only got 4.5% so the right wing split argument is not as valid as say in Souris-Moose Mountain where Grant Devine got 27% or Saskatoon-Humboldt where Jim Pankiw got 20%. Even a liberal win is still possible since they only lost by 122 votes and would have won if you only count the election day polls.
03 05 05 RWA
The Conservatives won this even with the Larry Spencer candidacy threatening to split the vote. Without him, it's safe.

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