4:38 PM 14/01/20066

Prediction Changed
5:37 PM 26/12/2005
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Mike E. Jones
Andrew Mason
Tim Nyborg
Peter Stroh
Brad Trost

Bradley Trost

2004 Result:
Bradley R. Trost
Nettie Wiebe
Patrick Wolfe
Jim Pankiw
Ron Schriml
Larry Zarysky

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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13 01 06 Elessar
If an unknown newcomer can come in and oust a well known independent and top a popular NDP professor/farmer, then he can win easily being the incumbent. Also, now Brad Trost doesn't have a split in the right wing votes, which will go almost soley towards him now.
06 01 06 M. Lunn
I am now calling this for the Tories. Since Jim Pankiw won most of the rural polls where the Tories are strongest, I would suspect most but not all of his votes will go Conservative, so without the split this time around, I expect Brad Trost to hold his riding.
04 01 06 ChrisM
I drove by sk cressent the other day (the richest upperclass street in town, so normaly conservitive) sign count :NDP 12 Grits: 1 Con:0
21 12 05 Bill S
This will be an easier win for the conservatives than most people think. For the one guy who thinks Pankiw votes will go to NDP, you need to look at Pankiw's policies and realize that the majority of Pankiw's votes will not go to any left wing party. This is a university riding and the U of S has NDP supporters but low student voter turnout won't make a difference. Easy win for Trost.
18 12 05 John
This riding is a Tory stronghold. All the Pankiw vote from 2004 will go Conservative. Pankiw's voters will NEVER vote Liberal and also have nothing in common with the Jack Layton NDP. Trost wins this riding with the same kind of numbers Pankiw won it with back in 2000.
16 12 05 love, sydney
Although this was fairly tight race last time, the absence of a serious anti-establishment candidate (Pankiw in '04) likely returns this to a comfortable conservative win, by about 4,000-5,000 votes. Although Trost is no shining light, the word on the ground from my Saskatoon relatives is that people aren't about to rock the boat, happy with getting rid of the Grits. Mason has some ground to make up, while Stroh is less known, and will likely suffer from a anti-handgun/Grit proposal, as misunderstood as the plan is. I know in other close ridings I've said the incumbant holds little edge, it can't work that way in every riding: my provincial prediction is Tories 8 NDP 3 Libs 3
15 12 05 Jeff Korte
Mr. Trost is a relatively unknown newcomer. However, after watching the NDP Candidate, the Liberal Candidate, and the Green Party Candidate on CPAC, I have to say that it is Trost that will take it in a walk. This riding is fed up with Liberal corruption and knee-jerk policies that will sound good on CBC. Pankiw's protest vote will coalease around the Conservative and to a lesser extent, the NDP vote. Unlike Mr. Trost, (on CPAC) the other candidates fumbled around when trying to explain their positions when meeting voters. The only way the NDP will pull of an upset here is to tap into the Student vote at the U of S, which will be in session this election, as opposed to summer elections. Having said that, this is a double-edged sword, as there are a considerable number of students who are from the rural areas of the province who will support the Conservatives.
04 12 05 Peter McG
I disagree that the Pankiw vote will automatically disperse towards the next right-winger in line. CPC is not necessarily going to be the beneficiary of those votes if indeed Mr. Pankiw decides not to run. Independent candidates attract as much for their "none of the above" appeal and their maverick anti-establishment niche as much as for their actual policy positions and character. Independent votes are often more of a protest vote than protest votes that go towards a candidate from an official party. while it is unlikely that many of Mr. Pankiw's votes will migrate towards the Liberals, it is as likely that they will be diposed towards the NDP as much as towards the CPC candidate. Andrew Mason, appears at least from his website to be an extremely strong candidate from the NDP. A well-known lawyer and former President of the Symphony board - seems to be the type of person that could really appeal to the university set and to the retired and professional set that tend to live in this part of Saskatoon. As much as an individual candidate can actually affect a national race (generally less than 10% of voters even care who the local candidate is) this seems to be a strong choice for the NDP and they should really clean up at least in the city. I think the Pankiw votes will be split, Libs will go down very slightly, and the anger towards the provincial NDP will have abated somewhat from its high point during the last election. NDP pick up, but VERY close.
03 12 05 H. L. S.
I am surprise that this riding is consider TCTC. The Jim Pankiw (a social and fiscal conservative) vote will go back to the conservative party. Unless either the liberal or the NDP collapes, losing about 7000 or 77% or their vote to the other prop up the NDP or liberal candidate, this riding will elect a conservative back to Ottawa. I think most would agree the conservative vote count will only go up, while the liberal and the NDP will be battling for a (distant) second place.
26 11 05 Max Cat
While I would like to suggest otherwise, the Conservatives will retain this seat. To be sure, the NDP will do well in those portions of the riding in Saskatoon, around the University and into Nutana, but they may stall in some of the newer subdivisions. Once outside the city, into some of the smaller rural communities, places like Aberdeen, and the farm polls from Cudworth to Humboldt, the Conservatives will build up very healthy totals. If the Conservatives do lose this seat, then I would think they are having a disappointing evening in the province.
04 10 05 Travis
This was a close race on election night, and even with Mr. Pankiw taking 7,000 votes which alot of those would normally have been votes for the Conservative party, Mr. Trost was able to win this riding. This was against two big name candidates, I see no reason from what has changed since last election that will see the defeat of Mr. Trost unless he runs a bad campaign.
03 10 05 Nick Boragina
I dont think this should be a certain CPC riding. This election is going to be a tough one for this site, especially when it comes to the CPC-Lib vote. This riding could be won by either the Liberals or the NDP, any riding in Saskatoon really has that chance.
12 05 05 A.S.
The 9/11 of Canadian psephology. No race like it, since...when? Has anyone ever won in Canada with 26.75% of the vote? We knew Jim Pankiw, The Ugliest MP Ever, would throw things off kilter with his independent run, but, uh...the three major parties within *1 1/4* points of each other? And Pankiw *still* holding strong at 20% (and sweeping the rural polls in the process)? Eek. Yikes. Any "prediction" here was but a dice toss (though it's noteworthy that nobody dared--out of fear, perhaps?--to predict Pankiw). But, as part of that freak perfect psephological storm for the Sask Tories, it was CPC that drew the winning straw; and now that they're in, they're probably staying in. Remember, 26.75 + 20 = a whopping notional mandate, and there's no particular hint thus far that the Sask Tories will deflate soon a la BC '04. Of course, Jim Pankiw could run again, and who's to say he wouldn't--indeed, I'm still puzzled why he hasn't set up a "Pauline Hanson One Nation" party--but he's tired goods now, and besides, no longer has incumbency to ride upon.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
This will probably go Conservative assuming most of the 20% who voted for Jim Pankiw switch to the Conservatives (Especially since Jim Pankiw was about as right wing as one could get), but having watched passed elections, one cannot not assume all those who voted Jim Pankiw will automatically go Conservative. In BC, many Alliance votes in 2000 went NDP in 2004 so some people vote for far right parties as protest vote as opposed to genuine support for their policies. Not to mention many voted for Jim Pankiw because they liked his racist views and many of those will simply stay home this time around.
26 04 05 Travis
This will be a close race on election night just like the last election, but given the current support for the Conservative party in the city of Saskatoon I expect this riding to re-elect Brad Trost.

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