10:50 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:44 AM 02/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Brad Farquhar
Ralph Goodale
Nigel Taylor
Helen Yum

Hon. Ralph Goodale

2004 Result:
Ralph Goodale
Doug Cryer
Erin M. K. Weir
Darcy Robilliard

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 01 06 Pink Tory
New info out, a local poll has the race neck and neck ... If Goodale isn't going to be in cabinet, this riding will have little incentive to vote Liberal, especially after Goodale's recent ethical travails ....
If Goodale is going to lose, the Conservatives should take it, but I also wouldn't count out the NDP ....
This should be moved to the Too Close to Call column ....
18 01 06 dannyboy
Goodale had an overwhelming victory last time around. The investigation has hurt him somewhat, and the NDP's stronger candidate this time around could erode the Liberal vote enough for the Conservatives to narrow the gap -- but not nearly enough. Several voters of my acquaintance perceive (rightly or wrongly) a direct link between Goodale's high-profile cabinet position and federally-funded infrastructure projects in East Regina (i.e., Ring Road/Vic Ave underpass reconstruction). Whether or not this view is widely held, I suspect that the underlying idea -- that your interests are better served by having a high-profile representative than by having a backbencher -- will continue to go a long way in getting votes for Goodale.
14 01 06 Bear and Ape
Goodale was NEVER locked out of the Chretien cabinet. Check the facts, Agriculture minister from 93 to 97, Natural Resources Minister from 97 to 2002, Public Works minister from 2002 to 2003, at which time he became Martin's finance minister. As we recall, Goodale took over public works when it was an unmitigated mess from the previous minister, stood up in the hosue of commons (when asked a question upon first obtainign the portfolio) and announced that it was a disaster and he's cleaning it up. It was true, the opposition was happy with the response to the (probable) embarrasment of Chretien and the previous cabinet minister. So Goodale has always been working in cabinet since his re-election in 93 and up until now has been squeeky clean, no scandals on him....too good to last eh?
Now as to this going Conservative, Ralph is not invulnerable, he has a string of defeats in the 70's and particularly in the 80's, but that was a long time ago. People know him and are comfortable with him enough to probably keep him around. His last election victory gave him a gianormous margin. That will be wittled down to something smaller, but he will still come out on top. Liberal colapse, a good CPC campaign and Ralph's current scandal notwithstanding, Ralph will win with about 2000 votes.
10 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Who would dump a finance minister? When has any riding ever done that?
Finance ministers have been historically safer in their seats than Prime Ministers. (Kim Campbell lost hers, but Michael Wilson was long gone).
Goodale won't be dumped on a Saskatchewan roadside by racist cops because of some Bay Street behaviour. That's dreaming on the part of Conservatives. If Goodale had trouble getting re-elected it's because he was locked out of Chretien's cabinet.
Goodale won't step down because he might lose his riding. Toughing it out will be bad for the Liberal Party nationally but good for him here. And the Liberals can't afford to lose him. Who else is going to write more of those "greenest budget ever"s?
31 12 05 RJM
This one is suddenly in the undecided column. Ralph's 2000 margin of 1731 votes is a better indication of his real strength than his 11858 vote margin last year. This is the only riding in Saskatchewan that Ralph could win, with it's high percentage of university and government types, plus the smallest percentage of rural voters. Both the Conservative and NDP candidates have a better start than last year and both of the candidates look like better parliamentary material than last year's. Plus, both the opposition parties smell blood, and no longer look on Wascana as a riding that they can't win. I can predict that both Mr. Farquhar and Ms. Yum will have far more resources available than originally planned, starting next week.
02 01 06 M.T.
When you consider that the Liberals have fallen several points nationally, because of a scandal involving Ralph Goodale, my guess is that this will have some bearing on the Wascana race. Many of those who've looked at the case think that nothing was actually leaked; even if something was, I doubt that Goodale's personal reputation would have been tarnished if this thing had been handled better. If he had immediately offered to step down until the case was cleared up, it would have blown over before the election had heated up. As it has played out, the whole thing has blown up in Martin and Goodale's faces. Also, the Conservatives continue to go up in local polls... despite being well in the lead already. Prediction: Tory sweep of Saskatchewan.
29 12 05 Travis Chase
In the 2000 federal election, the Canadian Alliance only lost to Ralph Gooddale and the Liberals by 2000 votes, in 2004 there was a large swing.
I fully expect that with the Income Trust situation taking off, plus saging Liberal poll numbers in the praries, not to mention an embarrassing campaign stop by the Prime Minster where the tires went flat on a Carriage ride, and the finance minister became irrelevant when the NDP wrote the budget, and this riding is a Conservative target, and the last place to punish the Liberals in Saskatchewan. Not to mention the Conservatives are running a real candidate instead of a paper candidate.
29 12 05 M. Lunn
The RCMP investigation for the income trusts leak will no doubt hurt the Liberals nationally at least in the short term, but I don't think it will be enough to unseat Ralph Goodale. He won by 33% last time around and there is no way there will be a large enough swing to any one party to unseat him. Second of all not all those unhappy with him, will go Conservative, some will go NDP, so Ralph Goodale may be bruised by the announcement, but he will be back as MP on January 23rd. The only question is if the investigation is still going when Paul Martin chooses his new cabinet, he may be kept out of cabinet this time around
28 12 05 Michael W Ensley
The RCMP is launching a criminal investigation of insider trading within the Minister of Finance Office is bad PR.
28 12 05 Keith
I reserve the right to change but the latest news on the Income Trust scandle does not look good for Goodale. Farquhar is a credible CPC name with a tonne of political experience. With a good organization, he could complete the Saskatewan sweep. CPC by a thread here.
19 12 05 Long-Time Reader, First-Time Poster
In terms of the likely outcome in Wascana, Goodale's stature as the most powerful federal Cabinet Minister (other than the Prime Minister) and his margin of victory last time speak for themselves. In terms of predictions on this page, it seems that excessively cocky posts by Liberal partisans have incited others to predict that Goodale will lose.
19 12 05 Scott
I think some people here are confusing wishful with reality. The fact of the matter is that Goodale has too great of lead to lose this election, no matter how much mud is thrown at him. I have lived in this riding my whole life, people I talk to of all different political ideologies are voting for Goodale. Many vote Liberal, but a lot vote for the candidate, and not the party.
17 12 05 P Thompson
If the income trust situation blows up, say for instance if the SEC decides to investigate, Goodale will be in deep trouble.
15 12 05 M. Lunn
For those predicting an NDP or Conservative win lets get realistic. The Income Trust issue may hurt Ralph Goodale somewhat, but he won by such a massive margin and is very popular in Saskatchewan that there is no chance of either the NDP or Tories winning this. This has the smallest portion of rural polls of any Saskatchewan ridings and since Conservative support is strongest in rural areas, it would be difficult to win this riding even if Ralph Goodale wasn't running. As for the NDP, this riding has traditionally gone either Liberal or Tory, even in 1988 when the NDP won 10 of 14 seats in Saskatchewan, this one went PC, so I think the NDP will focus their resources on Regina-Qu'appelle and Palliser where they actually have a chance at winning rather than ridings they have no chance at winning.
14 12 05 Chris
Don't count Helen Yum out of the running quite yet. I find it very curious that Ralpf is spending so much time campaigning in his riding this time around. Did anyone even see Ralph in the last election??
13 12 05 FED Up
Jean Cretien said it best after "Shawinigate" that the role of the MP is to lobby Ottawa for money for thier own Constituants. It has been obvious to many that Goodale has for the past 5 years been skipping back to Regina with "bags o' cash" to distribute for projects like the University and Wascana Park.
The Liberal Party knows that they must dole out this cash because this seat is one of the few remaining western seats painted red.
29 11 05 Gregor Burton
Last time, Ralph had well over 50% of the vote - in fact, he beat all the other candidates COMBINED and had about 5,000 votes to spare. This may be one of the, if not the safest Liberal seat in Western Canada.
It might behoove the opposition to not even bother running against Ralph here. If all you can get are the likes of Doug Cryer and Erin Weir, I suggest you save your money for somewhere that there is actually a chance!
29 11 05 Laurence Putnam
Goodale has been the standard bearer of Liberalism in Saskatchewan, both provincially and federally for years. Now local boy has made good as Finance Minister. Ralph wins without difficulty.
11 05 05 gosens
Though I'm a hardcore tory I agree that Ralph Goodale is not going to lose. This would only be a CPC pickup in the case of a conservative majority, which is unlikely.
11 05 05 Bear and Ape
Who are these people thinking that Ralph Goodale will lose? Really people, some Liberals will get elected and Ralph is quite safe. He's popular, respected and competent and anyone who garneshed that much support last year has little to fear this year.
11 05 05 Scott
While the Liberal Party may be down in Saskatchewan I believe that a lot of the support still left is centred in this riding. While Goodale may go down a bit in votes, the fact that he won so overwhelmingly last time means he will win again. I remember talking to a Conservative Scrutineer on election day who was convinced that it was a tight race, he couldn't fathom that it might be possible Goodale would do as well as last time. So I really have a hard time believing what Conservatives have to say this time. Remember, in the last election out of over 100 polls Ralph Goodale got first place in all but one, throughout a very diverse riding of both Urban and Rural.
10 05 05 Neal
I stand by my earlier prediction that Ralph Goodale will hold on. I detest the Liberals, but can objectively say that Goodale is one of the few Liberals with a good reputation for honesty and competence.
He must be steaming about having his budget hijacked by Jacko Layton.
Wascana voters know that whoever the Tories nominate will not likely be a cabinet contender, so they will set their sights on keeping Goodale in for the Liberal rebuild, with a view to possibly seeing him as the next leader of the LPC.
10 05 05 Quiring
Goodale is in front but he is not unbeatable. I know many people that vote for Goodale and most of them seem to be apologetic when they give their lukewarm support. Goodale wins because he is cabinet minister and people think he will bring them the goodies. If it looks like the Conservatives will win government then Goodale could lose. His support is wide, but it’s not deep. In the end, I think his support will hold and he will carry the seat for the Liberals, but if he goes down I will not be completely shocked.
07 05 05 RJW
RALPH GOODALE IS NOT GOING TO LOSE. Look at his margin last time. He's very well-respected and popular, it's only wishful thinking on the part of some eager Tories to say that he's going down this time.
07 05 05 Mike
It would appear that a number of hardcore but misinformed Tories have begun posting Conservative predictions in Ralph Goodale’s riding. Even my most partisan Tory friends admit that they like Goodale. I wonder if the conservative posters have even seen the polls lately; the Liberals are ahead, and the most recent poll put them ahead by 6%. Regardless, Ralph Goodale won a huge majority last time. Having won 57% of the vote, he beat his nearest competitor by a factor of almost 2 ½ or by 11,858 votes; he beat “Cryer” to tears. While it may be true that Goodale won’t win as many votes as he did last time, he is absolutely guaranteed to be reelected in Wascana. Nobody can look at the latest polls, look at Goodale’s margin from ’04 (the numbers are conveniently posted on this webpage) and honestly believe that anyone else has a chance.
04 05 05 Nick Boragina
Personal populaity, Goodale could win here as an NDPer, or even a Green. Running as a Liberal is meaningless for him, this is not a vote for Gomery, this is a vote for good old King Ralph.
03 05 05 Paul
Goodale won last time by a relatively large margin only because he (then) recently became Finance Minister.
This no longer has the importance it had in 2004 and with the general lack of support for Liberals in Western Canada, expect the Conservatives to pick up this seat and make a full sweep in Saskatchewan.
03 05 05 TC
Im going to predict Conservatives by a squeaker. I know Ralph Goodale is deeply entrenched and has been for a long time. In general the Liberal Party is not popular in Saskatewan, and this is the last place left to punish the Liberal Party.
The Liberal Party has ignored farmers and agitated the west. Gomery will be a big factor as well. Crooks are not welcome in rural Saskatewan and an Alliance with the Toronto centered NDP are not popular in Wascana and will most certainly not help Gooddale either. The marriage issue will surely play big in this riding as most are in support of the traditional definition of marriage.
If a strong Conservative Candidate runs, and with the crystalization of Conservative support in the rest of Saskatewan 12000 voters moving to the Conservatives is not so far fetched to pull this race even.
Gooddale has nowhere to go but down, the question is how many votes will he loose?
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Actually Neal, the liberals will win seats in Winnipeg and Vancouver, but you are right that outside of Winnipeg and Vancouver, this will probably be the only liberal seat in Western Canada unless you include the Yukon and Nunavut which will go liberal. Ralph Goodale had the best showing for the liberals in Western Canada and he has enough personal popularity to win this riding even if the Conservatives take every other Saskatchewan riding again.
02 05 05 Craig
Even Finance Minister Goodale will lose his seat, although not by a whole lot. I don't see any Liberals being elected between Winnipeg and Vancouver (possibly none west of Toronto!), and certainly not in a rural/suburban riding. This will be the last seat called in Saskatchewan, but a stronger NDP will just allow the Conservatives to come up the middle. Predicted results: CPC 38%, LIB 33%, NDP 25%, GRN 3%, others 1%.
26 04 05 Neal
Ralph Goodale stands a very good chance of being the last Liberal left standing west of Ontario.

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