3:11 AM 03/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:54 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Edmonton East
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Trey Capnerhurst
Arlene Chapman
Peter Goldring
Nicole Martel

Peter Goldring

2004 Result:
Peter Goldring
John Bethel
Janina Strudwick
Harlan Light
Ed Spronk

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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01 01 06 pax vobiscum
Peter Goldring's campaign manager has had to resign because of comments he made on a website that half of Alberta's tories would be working for Alberta separation after they lose the election. This is intriguing for two reasons: first, it displays a defeatist attitude in some fairly senior circles in the tory campaign, and second, it belies the "Stand up for Canada" slogan, indicating that a more realistic version would be "Stand up for Canada unless the Conservatives lose, then it's back to the firewall."
What's harder to predict is the effect this little bit of silliness will have on the Goldring campaign. Is campaign manager Stamp's resignation merely symbolic? If he is still active behind the scenes, the campaign focus might not suffer too much, but even then it exposes a weakness that an astute opponent could exploit. A more interesting question is whether this represents the 2006 version of Harper's "brain trust" snatching defeat from the jaws of victory again. Depending on how this plays out, it could have effects beyond this riding that could help to nullify the effects of Goodale's problems.
24 12 05 Bear and Ape
The 2004 election saw numerous people proposing Goldring's downfall based on two things. 1. The quality of the Liberal candidate, 2. He's hell bent on having the Turk & Caicos Islands join Canada (they would be a territory, not a provence). As is quite obvious, he beat the Liberal with over 6000 votes, so there is no reason at all to propose that for these same reasons he will lose. The Liberals are down in Alberta, so they are NOT going to pick up anything, but stand to lose. Besides, being a winter election most people would applaud the addition of some tropical islands to the Canadian federation. God knows we do!
21 12 05 Malty
Colin's arguments for a Liberal Victory are really weak. First of all, he mentions traditional Liberal Strength in Edmonton East. They have won the riding once in its existence, and that was due to massive vote spliting and generally whacky result in 1993 - when Judy Bethel emerged as the winner by about a hundred votes over the Reform Candidate. By his logic, Arlene Chapman would stand an equally good chance to the "traditional" NDP Strength having won the riding in 1988. I think what Colin was referring that the Liberals tend to do better here than elsewhere in Alberta -- but keeping in mind that the received approx. the same amount of votes here 12,000-14,000 since 1988.
Second of all, Goldring is very strong in the Ukrainian Community. Bottom line. and although Martel's might be 100% Ukrainian, he name isn't and that will hurt her.
Also, the lack of name recognition will hurt her. Also, the fact that all the Liberal focus is on Edmonton Centre, then Mill Woods Beaumont then East. The fact that she is a parachute candidate will hurt her as well... I mean its nice that her grandma lived in the riding and she poped by from time to time, but that hardily a "connection". The fact the LPC aggressively pursued Dan McLellan and Robert Noce, as their first and second choice - will hurt as well. There are just too many reason for her not to win... to have any chance the Liberals would need the perfect candidate... and they were in fact only able to find a weak one at best (no public name, parachute candidate, not a riding that the Liberals are focused on).
16 12 05 Colin Broughton
I agree with the assessment that Edmonton East is one of the most left-leaning ridings in Alberta.
The traditional Liberal strength in Edmonton East, together with the emergence of a quality Liberal candidate, make this one of the two most interesting horse races in Alberta.
Nicole Martel is intelligent, educated, and presents well in public. She has plenty of connections to the riding, and is well-received by its ethnic communities. (It doesn't hurt that Nicole Martel is 100% Ukrainian.)
The encumbent, Peter Goldring, likes to latch onto issues that lie somewhere between irrevelant and downright whacky. (He has made it his life's mission to adopt the Turks & Caicos Islands as a Canadian Province. Can you feel the ground swell?)
The contrast between Peter Goldring and stellar Conservative MPs like James Rajotte and Rona Ambrose illustrates the problem Peter faces: Nicole, James, and Rona are cut from more or less the same cloth. The three were close friends while attending U of A grad school.
If Peter is ever crazy enough to appear at a forum with Nicole, the best outcome for Peter would see him sliced and diced.
Based on that expectation, and on the likelihood that the encumbent indeed will dismiss the threat, I am sticking my neck out and predicting a narrow Liberal win in Edmonton East.
11 12 05 Jason
The Edmonton core ridings (Ed-Centre, Ed-Strathcona and Ed-East) are the most left leaning part of Alberta. To put that in perspective, that means a star Liberal or NDP candidate might actually have a chance against a low profile Conservative like Peter Goldring. Considering the lack of big name competition however, Mr. Goldring will be headed back to Ottawa. Look for the Liberals to bleed a few votes as last year's strategic Liberal voters realise the cause is lost and return to their home parties.
03 12 05 EE
Kind of an odd Alberta riding, poorest part of Edmonton, went NDP to Ross Harvey in '88, Liberal Bethel won in '93 and Goldring has held it since '97. Also, it is the heartland of the Alberta NDP, the home of current leader Brian Mason and former leaders Pam Barrett and Ray Martin (who is still an MLA in the area)
I guess Miles Lunn might have a point that this could be a Liberal pickup, and I think head of the AUPE Dan MacLennan will give it a shot in a few yrs. for the Liberals.
But as for this election you have the Liberals with their third-choice, second-rate parachute candidate... pretty easy prediction. In a few years it may be wide open if the right candidate emerges in the Liberals or NDP.
02 10 05 hatman
It will take a Liberal surge for this one to go red. John Bethel lost this by 6,000 votes, so anything is possible. In 2000 they lost by 3,000. Same in 1997. The Liberals actually won here in 1993. But again, this will be no 1993. And the riding was only won ny 200 votes then. It went NDP in 1988, and before that it was all PC until 1957 when it went SoCred. Yep, I think this will stay blue.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
If it weren't for the adscam, I would say this would be a prime target for the liberals since Edmonton is not nearly as Conservative as elsewhere in Canada and this riding doesn't include any of the commuter communities which tend to skew the results in other ridings. I have five family members in Edmonton and three of the five voted liberal last election so not all people in Edmonton are right wing. Nevertheless, with the current political scene, this will likely stay Conservative, but in the long-term Peter Goldring might have more trouble further down the road.

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