10:55 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
2:19 PM 01/12/2005
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Dave Dowling
Linda Duncan
Progressive Canadian
Michael Fedeyko
Andy Hladyshevsky
Kevan Hunter
Rahim Jaffer
Cameron Wakefield

Rahim Jaffer

2004 Result:
Rahim Jaffer
Debby Carlson
Malcolm Azania
Cameron Wakefield
Dave Dowling
Kevan Hunter

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 01 06 madhatter
The NDP predictions for this seat over the last few days have been off the mark (though I wish this was not the case). So Jack Layton visited the riding. He did last time too, and Jaffer won handily. It might be a closer race this time, but the seat is naturally conservative. The biggest pocket of possibly NDP support comes from areas around the university and Whyte Ave. People in these areas (especially university students) vote in underwhelming numbers, to say the least. The farther south and east you go in the riding, conservative support and voter turnout increase in tandem. I think Jaffer is pretty safe, which is a shame, because he's also an idiot.
19 01 06 P. Deshaies
Jack Layton visited this riding on Wednesday. Clearly he wouldn't be here if internal polling predicted a win for Jaffer. A good election night seat to watch.
17 01 06 Smokin Gun
Ohh lookie here? Layton coming to Edmonton-Strathcona in the last week?
Why would he waste time in little ol Edmonton in the last week? Must be at least TCTC
16 01 06 Steve_Shutt
I suspect that Jaffer still has this one locked up but the Liberal campaign has completely collapsed. The recent Journal poll in Edmonton Centre showed the NDP, with a stronger candidate than last time, holding 15% of the vote, up 6 pts since 2004 and resisting the urge to protect Landslide Annie. A similar Liberal-NDP switch in Strathcona really changes the landscape. Remember Raj Pannu won his provincial seat by dropping a "the best chance to beat the Conservatives is to vote NDP" leaflet along with a (suspect) 200 subject poll the Saturday before the vote. Maybe lightning will strike twice and Linda will be off to Ottawa.
15 01 06 C Olmert
Conservatives are going to win this one. Even with the student vote. Which I know, because I am a student at U of A, that many students are not registered to vote in this riding. Many students are either not voting (most of them) or registered in the home constituency. And voted over christmas by special ballot.
14 01 06 expat
While I believe Jaffer will win reelection for the Conservatives, it is going to be far closer than many expect. The local Liberal candidate is weak, the NDP candidate is running a strong campaign -- any available Liberal resources in the province are going to try to save Anne MacLellan's seat - if the final week of the campaign is another disaster for the Liberals, their collapsing vote here may migrate to the New Democrats and could just be enough to allow Linda Duncan to give Jaffer an uncomfortably close evening. But let's face it, with a significant national Conservative trend, it is incredibly difficult to believe that any seat in Alberta will dump a Conservative incumbent -- especially one who (whatever his shortcomings) is a fairly high profile, hard working, possible cabinet material member.
12 01 06 Bear Without Ape
My brother is at U of A and although he is a Quebecer, he is getting a prosperity check. I believe you have to have worked in the provence and paid provincial taxes to get one. Many students, despite being from out of provence, still work during the school year. But more importantly, student turn out is low, so despite their numbers in the riding, they will not sway it orange.
12 01 05 djh
I truly think the NDP have a good shot this time, considering the comment already posted here regarding a higher student population this time around along with the fact that the Liberals were very late to the game in nominating a candidate, and he seems to be struggling to get his name out there. I honestly had no idea there was a Liberal candidate until a couple of weeks ago, and I live next to a fairly major road in the electoral district.
09 01 06 tylenol85
I think Edmonton Strathcona has a good chance of going orange. Remember, the last election was held in June when the student population was away. In fall and winter terms there is usually an influx of people from outside Alberta who hold social views. Add to the fact that none will receive Ralph Klein's "prosperity cheques", well...
04 01 06 Parkallen Res
I have to go with the prediction that Jaffer will win. He is not particularly strong or popular individually (if he shows up at my door I'm going to ask if it's really him or someone pretending to be him - that gaffe sticks to him). But he will coast in on the Conservative popularity in Alberta. A strategic vote upset has to surmount two problems - a (wrong-headed, for this constituency) sense that strategic voters have to go Liberal to stop Conservatives and a significant vote shift in the opposition vote. I suspect Jaffer will do better that 39% of the vote this election (maybe 42-43%), leaving a bigger spread for number 2 to fill. I agree that, logically, that number 2 is NDP - she has more profile than the Liberal (I have seen a couple of Liberal signs, but that's pretty poor). But it would require a major panic in the Liberal ranks to accomplish it and I don't think that a Liberal voter is likely to be able to accept that voting NDP is the strategically correct action in Strathcona.
28 12 05 JT
I'm kind of stratching my head at the amount of NDP predictions I see here. Yes they will come within striking distance here just the CPC will in a handful of ridings in Quebec. But the they haven't got the amount of support in Alberta fedrally to win seats. Not to mention that most anti-CPC votes will go to the Liberals. In other words a Conserative hold.
28 12 05 Adam
Absolutely, Smokin Gun is right. As far as the weakness of the Liberal campaign this election, their website only recently started listing the candidate here. And I only just recently got my first Liberal mailing for the election. The word Liberal appeared a total of twice, both times referring to the candidate seeking the liberal nomination for the riding. They don't even have any actual mailings for him, they're recycling his nomination campaign material. The NDP has a lot of ground to make up, but soft Liberal voters and anti-Conservative voters will certainly rally behind the NDP candidate. The NDP will without doubt make a strong showing, and has the potential to challenge Jaffer in this election.
21 12 05 Smokin Gun
To Toronto Tory: If you look at this board in particular... you'll notice that its one way (no ones telling NDP votes to vote liberal on this one). The Liberal vote and how soft/firm it is in this riding is the $100 Million dollar question here hehe. 2004 Lib. Candidate Debby Carlson was a former Liberal MLA, but not a particularly strong one so How many of those 13,000 votes were Debby's and how many were Liberal votes not quite sure... despite a weak campaign she still ended up second.
Apparently this new Liberal candidate while being nice guy and has some community involvement, isn't the political sort. In fact, I hear he's trying to downplay/ignore that he's a Liberal in the campaign (huh???), and I haven't seen ONE sign in this riding for the liberals (very odd). So i'm pretty sure the Lib. numbers will drop this time. I'm also sure the NDP #'s will rise as mentioned in previous postings why. It also helps when its a U of A person running, as many of its students, staff,professors etc. live here and they support their own. For example when I ran in Lethbridge, all candidates had a connection to the U of L (3 students, an alum, a former professor, and a former employee..... the former employee won (and is still sitting MP)) so there was no particular advantage there in way of univ. support, and its a place that doesn't politically do that anyways. Here though, it can be clearly shown that U of A is very politically active as a unit and clearly support their own for elections regardless of party lines (Cons, Liberals, AND NDP candidates with connections to U of A have won in the past which is pretty impressive considering Alberta's always been historically one sided). 7500 votes is a lot to make up though, but feasible yes. Even conservative friends have noticed the strength of the NDP here in this election (but still think they (Cons.)can take it). It will be interesting!
20 12 05 Toronto Tory
We have Liberal supporters on this board trying to win over NDP voters, and NDP voters trying to win over Liberals. Both claim that their candidate is the best bet to win. The end result will be a backfiring mish-mash of strategic voting and a Jaffer hold.
18 12 05 L.R.
There's really no reason why the NDP can't take this riding, but I don't know if they'll manage to do it this time. Unfortunately, despite a Liberal candidate who wasn't nominated until quite late and who isn't even a blip on the radar screen weeks into the campaign, there are still people who think that "strategic voting" automatically means voting for the Liberal regardless of the candidates, the campaigns they run, or the situation in the riding. If people can evaluate all the evidence sensibly and unite behind the NDP candidate, then she might have a chance. Otherwise, Strathcona will be Tory blue once again.
14 12 05 MM
Rahim Jaffer will pick this one up again, but look for a second place showing by Linda Duncan for the NDP. The Liberal candidate has been all but invisible so far, not having even been nominated until a week ago, whereas Linda has been campaigning since September. I think strategic voters will probably fall behind her this time around, but not in sufficient quantities to unseat Mr Jaffer.
13 12 05 Smoking Gun
While I respect the fact that Bear and Ape have amongst the more sane, logical, and even handed postings on this site.. and despite the fact I predicted the NDP had a chance 18 months ago (and it didn't pan out). I'm still thinking this ones a TCTC.... It's still early so just keep an eye on it.
Minor Factors-
Contains the provincial Opposition leaders seat and for some time in the 90's the only NDP provincial seat in Alberta (which is still NDP). Thats still only a few (couple?) thousand votes though.
The community reaction to the NDP candidate is generally quite favourable. More often than not, someones "star" power has little impact and the same could hold true here. However, the NDP candidate (University prof?)seems to have a strong prescence and name recognition in this area (it does contain the University....) I guess its not too far off because the sitting NDP provincial MLA is also a University prof. and likely has been successful all this time because of University-community support....Hmmm... isn't Anne McLellan a former U of A prof too wih strong U of A support??? (Are people noticing similarities?)and that will help in trying to woo and convince people that:
a)she's not a wasted vote (tough)
b)she can do more/better than Jaffer (not as tough); and
c)she can effectively advocate Alberta issues FEDERALLY within a framework of the NDP (very tough!)
The only signs out there so far are NDP (but thats been covered by Bear/Ape and myself- signs do not equal voters especially when it comes to the Dippers, Dipper signs are usually first to appear on Alberta landscape...etc. etc.)
Major Factor- Does a liberal candidate exist? Apparently they do (some internal stuff going on apparently), but the public doesnt know. The liberal site lists 303 candidates.... Edmonton Strathcona is one of the 5 ridings that doesnt have one listed. If somehow there is no Liberal candidate, this helps Duncan WAY more then Jaffer, and i'm sure the Greens wouldnt mind either. Talking with people in the riding, alot seem ready for a change but are waiting to see how the campaigns shake out. I swear i'm not crazy, I swear I don't have a dipper card, but don't say I didn't tell you so if somehow Linda Duncan knocks off Rahim Jaffer!
P.S. Editor- being 7500 votes behind in Alberta IS a close race! Jaffer's vote will likely stay put or go down marginally..... it's just about how the other vote gets diced up.
08 12 05 JJ
I'm giving this to Jaffer, since I don't see Conservative voters changing sides this election.
However, I think the Dippers are poised for a better result this time. They will come a strong second, surprising some people, but still fall short of winning it.
The NDP candidate is far better this time, (i.e. not crazy). She's being working hard - a drive around the riding shows it with the signs. The Liberals had a high profile MLA running last time, and this time, they were the last riding in the province to nominate a candidate.
Why does second place matter? Because this isn't really a conservative area. Jaffer only got 39% last time and the area votes anything but Tory in provincial elections. If I'm right, and the NDP improves its result this time, look for them to go hard at Jaffer (with support from their national campaign), next time. Then it will be a very, very interesting contest in Strathcona.
05 12 05 EE
This may be the only riding in Alberta where it the NDP emerges as the clear second choice. As of Dec. 5th the Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate, and list of candidates is hardily impressive. Linda Duncan has been nominated since May - and may stand the most outside of chances. She has been door-knocking, she has send out information in the mail etc. Also, because Mr. Jaffer isn't an exceptional MP, with a low profile.
I fully expect the NDP to beat the Liberals in this riding, however it is quite the uphill climb to beat Jaffer. It depends more on the national campaign - if Layton is doing well, and the NDP can convince a substantial number of Liberal voters that they are the clear second choice. Then they have a shot. Albeit, lets be honest here, a slim one (better than the Grits though I suppose...)
Campaigns are local and this one depends on momentum... the Strathcona/Univeristy area is fertile NDP ground where they can recruit some volunteers... But realistically, the Conservatives have a clear edge and I think they will win in the end. However, the NDP certainly CAN make it happen and that why I'm not predicting yet. Depends if Liberal voters here are wise enough to realize that strategic voting in this riding is marking an 'X' for the NDP.
05 12 05 Bear and Ape
We are going to reiterate our call that this is a Conservative hold and not TCTC. We are very much aware of the demographics of this riding and we know that the NDP have a solid support base. This is quite obvious from previous election results. However, what is often true of both NDP candidates and many of their supporters, is that they are QUITE LOUD, giving the impression that their numbers are greater that what they actually are. So we will not argue that support exists, we'll argue that it's not as strong as claimed, otherwise last election would have seen stronger NDP results. Now for Jaffer himself, he is a conservative, this is Alberta, yes this is the most unsafe tory seat in Alberta but it was still won by a 5K margin over the Liberals and 7.5K over the NDP. Conservative support in Alberta is up by about 4% and that was taken from the Liberals. Liberal support is non-existant in rural Alberta, meaning that this bleeding of support must be centered in Calgary and Edmonton...in ridings like this one. Sorry guy, the numbers just don't add up to an NDP win here. Jaffer holds.
02 12 05 Smoking Gun
1) Jaffer's stock as an MP is not as strong as it used to be, and frankly I don't think he will ever get that back. Better than an unknown Cons. but worse than a "star" one. The lustre will never come back and his staff should stop submitting the contrary on here.
2) This riding is a mishmash of University/Arts area, well to do areas (ie. Belgravia) in the west, middle class in the middle (go figure), and lower class in the east. As someone who has run federally before for a fringe party and beat the NDP in polls... I'm very aware of what NDP support can be like in Alberta (ie. very lonely heh) and i'm also very aware that they usually have more signs up than voters. But this area actually has a solid NDP base.. I work here and see whole communities where the dippers are dominant! More solid than liberals even though they (liberals) get more votes.. its soft... so its very likely that depending on the candidates and if people vote strategically this time that the NDP has a chance.... i'd say 75% it will go tory (vote split)and 25% NDP....(if they pick up alot of soft liberal support) its definitely not a lock and theres pretty well much only 2 races out of 28 in Alberta, but this and Edmonton Centre are them. Posts telling you to move it away from TCTC are doing it because they know this is the most unsafe tory seat in Alberta. That being said... Cons will be 1 or 2 and wouldnt drop further.
30 11 05 L.O.
Nov 29 Ipsos Reid has Tories at 64% in Alberta - up from the 61% they had when Rahim Jaffer still managed to take this riding. Liberals in last election had 22%. Nov 29 they were at 19%. NDP isn't doing anything too amazing here either. Jaffer's high profile . . . after some definite growing pains, he's still a rising star in a Conservative party that very much wants to promote its young and diverse caucus. . . even if that youthful inexperience used to get Rahim in trouble from time to time. back in the old days before the last election . .
29 11 05 Alsadius
Why is this still TCTC? 90% of the responses say Jaffer will win, and he won by 5000+ votes last time. Last I checked, all the polls have the Tories even higher in Alberta than they were last time and the Libs even lower. Sure, by Alberta standards this is close, but it's still hard Tory, just not as hard as some others.
27 11 05 Karl
Why is it that this riding is always to close to call.....its going to go conservative. First off....this is alberta....second Rahim is very popular. Put this in the "right" column!
26 11 05 JFB
Je vois mal comment Jaffer pourrait perdre son siège, dans la très conservatrice Alberta, alors que le PCC est à plus de 60% dans les intentions de vote. Edmonton-Strahcona a beau être un château-fort néo-démocrate au niveau provincial, je vois mal comment Linda Duncan pourrait freiner la marée conservatrice. On parle d'un manque de 7500 voix pour rattraper Jaffer. Je crois que le TCTC n'est plus de mise. Victoire PCC.
18 11 05 J L
Despite the fact that yes, Ed-Strath is a provincial NDP stronghold, the Cons are still going to somehow take this, not only thanks to the leftist split, but also we're talking Alberta here: and since some Lib voters are more likely to stay home rather than vote NDP I can't imagine the Lib candidate here bleeding too many votes to Malcolm Azaria for him to defeat Rahim Jaffer. Of course, it would be funny to see Rahim lose of course, but fat chance of it happening...if it ain't Alberta, then it would be a good one. But hey, it's Alberta!!
05 11 05 hatman
This is the best chance for a Liberal or NDP pickup in Alberta. The Liberals *only* lost here by 5,000 votes, while this was the NDP's strongest Alberta riding. I expect some Liberal votes to bleed to the NDP, making a good race for 2nd. But whoever does finish 2nd will still be at least 4,000 votes behind. The Liberals have always made this closish, but have never pulled it off. 2005/06 will be no different. The NDP didnt even win this in 1988 (lost by over 4000) so I cant see them winning this either. The last time the Liberals won here was 1968.
01 11 05 mini phreek
Will this is the only riding that the NDP will have a chance in Alberta, this is there provincial stronghold. but as long as the incumbent remains they are not likely to pick this one up federally. if the liberal voters realize that there votes are useless in alberta, they may decide to park them with the NDP, thats the only scenario that gives an NDP win in alberta.
25 10 05 Paul
As much as I personally have no use for Rahim Jaffer... he will win again.
Those NDP supporters who did not already switch to the Liberals last time won't do it next time, and same thing applies for Liberal supporters.
26 07 05 S.M.
Rahim, will win here. This riding has a very left wing element to it, the NDP here are very strong. They are people who won't vote Liberal. The Liberals here are people who won't vote NDP. Therefore - Rahim wins the seat (again) on a vote split.
10 07 05 RF
To Ryan and those who think Jaffir's potential loss to the NDP is a joke. Check the numbers carefully it was not by 5,000 votes he won and his numbers have been going down over several elections. Speaking of talking silly to call White avenue and Garneau district and Bonny Doon or even Strathearn as the conservative stronghold is a joke to anyone who lives or knows that area. Demographics have been changing. More affluent families have been moving south of the White Mud. It is true that some slightly more affluent areas are in the new boundaries but the university community was getting mobilized last time. By the way what party do most of the MLA's belong to in this riding. It isn't the conservatives or liberals. The unpopularity of the Liberals are a factor as well. It will be a close to way this time but if the NDP has a good local candidate they could win.
21 06 05 Ryan
Rahim Jaffer won by over 5000 votes. An upset? That's a joke. Mind you, this is a if not THE COnservative stronghold of the country. An NDP prediction is silly, and a Liberal prediciton is amusing. The NDP has little chance in Alberta, and the Liberals have one chance- in Edmonton-Centre. This will stay with Mr. Jaffer.
09 06 05
An NDP prediction is basically a joke. This has got to be the number one most Conservative province in all of Canada, and considering Rahim Jaffer won in this riding by at least 5000 votes, I don't see much of a challenge. The Sponsorship scandal is definitely not going to help the Liberal candidate.
16 05 05 Steve G
People were predicting an upset here last year and Rahim Jaffer won by a comfortable 5000-vote margin. The same will happen this time. Jaffer is a competent, intelligent MP who will certainly be in cabinet in the event of a Conservative victory. The Tories will sweep Alberta (again) with only Landslide Annie withstanding the tide.
14 05 05 Bear and Ape
If there was no Adscam, and if the word "Liberal" was not such a filthy word in Alberta (even more filthy than it was last year), then we might actually think this riding would be too close to call. But c'mon, seriously? Jaffer has the benefit of being an incumbant and the benefit of being a Conservative (it's Alberta, people!). NDP voters are not going to rally behind a Liberal candidate (scandal, scandal, scandal!) nor will most Liberals rally behind the NDP candidate (though the latter is more likely since the NDP are not in the dog house with the voting public at the moment). Strategic voting won't really work, as these strategic voters try and guess which party to vote for (Liberals and NDP were not that far appart last time). Bottom line, Jaffer is farely safe and will be back in Ottawa in the next parliament.
12 05 05 A.S.
What made the NDP tally in Edmonton-Strathcona all the more amazing is that it happened despite the "Usenetgate" scandal nearly derailing Malcolm Azania mid-election--for the record, he even won more polls and sectors than the second-place Liberal MLA Debby Carson. Which leads one to wonder how well he might have done had the Usenet flap *not* erupted. Incidentally, Nick B., Edmonton-Strathcona isn't the successor to 1988's sole Alberta NDP riding; Edmonton East is. No matter; '04's result (plus provincial representation, the college-town/cultural class/gentrification factor, etc) shall likely assure this remains the top NDP target (and, *very* hypothetically, a reasonably rote Liberal target) in Alberta this season. Not that it'll happen, but, hey.
12 05 05 N
This riding is Conservative and certainly not too close too call. Edmonton-Strathcona has been conservative since 1972. With Adscam and with a strong candidate like Rahim Jaffer, this is not about to change.
11 05 05 djh
In response to Travis - you have to remember that Edmonton-Strathcona is a university-area riding with an growing amount of young families. The NDP did quite well here, considering, and with the right candidate could do even better in the next showing.
09 05 05 paul westwood
I think it is reasonable to say that this riding will remain conservative, judging from Alberta poll numbers and the current political atmosphere. The latest poll, 05/07/2005, has the conservatives up one and the liberals down 2. One poll not to long ago even had the liberals in third across Alberta. In the current climate of hostility towards liberals and a safe 10 point lead, Jaffer will get re-elected.
If the administrator has this riding in the too close to call because of the NDP, I would hope you look closly at your reasoning again. Some predicted a NDP win last year but they did not even come in second. Polls have shown them going up and down from their 2004 election result, but absolutely not enough to catch up to the conservatives.
07 05 05 ToJo
This is more in response to JC then an actual prediction.
I think that you're best chance to beat Jaffer will actually be rallying around the NDP candidate (provided it is someone high profile). The NDP polled at about 25% here last time - and they don't have the taint of ADSCAM and scandal hanging around there necks. So the ability to pick up votes is much higher. Also the Liberals have fallen in the polls in Alberta and the NDP have pick up a few points - so it's likely that they have a "lead" over the Liberals in Strathcona to big with, so to speak.
If strategic voting is your thing and your looking to beat Jaffer I think that your best shot in Edmonton Strathcona is actually the NDP.
05 05 05 JC
This is going to be a shock, Jaffer really didn't perform well and I know he has the advantage because he's a CPC, but if the Libs can convince the NDP to vote with them to kick out Jaffer it might happen.
04 05 05 Travis
I do not understand why this riding is Too Close To Call. There is no way that a Conservative MP in Alberta is going to loose their seat when the party is polling over 60% in Alberta. Mr. Jaffer will be re-elected once again.
04 05 05 Nick Boragina
There is no hope that the Liberals can win here, the Liberal vote is soft, that means going up in the polls is hard, but going down, very easy. Consideirng the Liberals did not win last time, that makes things simple.
It was in 1988 that the NDP carried this riding. They are the only ones who can take it again, but I just dont see that happening. Jaffer will win again, he's personally popular, or at least popular enough.
04 05 05 Aric H
Yes this is an interesting riding because when you combine the Liberal and NDP vote you will see that more people vote for those parties together than the Conservative party and so it would be interesting to see if those votes could be directed mainly to one-Conservative candidate to defeat the Conservative here. But until the Liberals and the NDP agree to allow the centre and left of centre vote to all go to one of their parties, it looks like the Conservatives will retain this riding through the vote split.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
This was the weakest Conservative riding in Alberta percentage wise, but was only won due to the strong NDP support whereas the NDP was very weak in Anne McLellan and David Kilgour's riding. This time around I expect the Conservatives to break the 40% mark followed by a strong second place showing by the NDP and a distant third for the liberals. Even though Rahim Jaffer may not be liked by some, this shouldn't matter since the Conservatives are set to sweep Alberta.

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