6:46 PM 09/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:59 AM 09/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Westlock-St. Paul
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Richard De Smet
Werner Gisler
Cory Ollikka
Peter Opryshko
Clarence Schultz
Brian Storseth

David Chatters

2004 Result:
Dave Chatters
Joe Dion
Peggy Kirkeby
John A. McDonald

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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07 01 06 Beethoven
You can't tell much by the forums. Count the lawn signs.
The forums are small and stacked, the converted attending and asking the questions.
This is a conservative stronghold. Everyone knows it, none better than the Conservative candidate.
But there is a twist this time. There are rumblings and even outright complaints of an arrogance from Storseth, the Conservative.
Ollikka, a municipal reeve, is making a favourable impression and my impression when he goes head to head against Storseth, he comes out looking like the best candidate.
It's only the second election for this sprawl of a riding that Liberal Joe Dion lost by roughly 7,000 to 26,000 to Conservative Dave Chattters. Even thought it's a whole new slate of people this time around it will go Conservative again.
But, and I hate to say it, the best candidate in this riding looks like a Liberal.
Ollikka is well informed on agricultural issues, very important here. He trumpets a history of being a former National Farmer's Union president, whatever that is, but there is no doubt he knows agriculture.
My prediction: Ollikka won't win but he will significantly out-poll the puny numbers Dion spent almost $80,000 to achieve last time around. The guy impresses even hard-line Conservatives. It's too bad he's not the Conservative candidate. I'll stick my neck out and say Ollikka will poll 13,000 which would be a very impressive run for a LIberal here.
07 01 06 Oatway
I was at the all candidates forum this evening in Morinville. The audience seemed to be fairly left leaning - which either speaks to:
a) changing values in this riding
b) the organization of the left wing parties in getting their supporters out
c) conservatives being complacent thinking that the election will be a walk in the cake & the fact that it's easy to get out to these types of forums and voice your opinion when you are trying to defeat an incumbent party
d) hockey day in canada keeping the good 'ol alberta boys home tonight ;-)
Regardless of the cause, a, b, and c are all bad signs for the Conservatives. While I'm not predicting they'll lose, I do think the young Liberal candidate will have a strong showing. You could tell he was really trying to stress the fact that he's a farmer, (street cred here in rural AB?).
17 09 05 M. Lunn
Actually Dave Chatters is not running again, but that is irrelevant as this is rural Alberta and will always go for right wing parties and since the Conservatives are the only right wing party, they will win this easily.
11 07 05 Nick Boragina
Chatters is one of the more popular MP's in the tory caucus. His constituents know him well. While this is one of the ridings in the growing Edmonton suburban belt, and could be a liberal win within the next 5 decades, for right now, this is a Tory lock.

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