4:40 PM 14/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:47 AM 02/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Green Party/Parti Vert
Stephanie Ashley - Pryce
Ed Fast
Tim Felger
Canadian Action
Richard Gebert
Jeffrey Hansen-Carlson
David S. MacKay
David Oliver

Randy White

2004 Result:
Randy White
Moe Gill
Scott Fast
Karl Hann
Harold J. Ludwig
Tim Felger
David MacKay

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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13 01 06 Treetop
Mr. Oliver has been officaly asked by martin to not identify himself as a Liberal candidate. When will those liberals ever learn?
13 01 06 Bear and Ape
Liberal's axed their candidate in this riding for apparently offering the NDP candidate a bribe to drop out of the race. Not that it matters, the CPC always had this one in the bag.
13 01 06 Andrew
The Liberal candidate has been expelled for trying to bribe the NDPer to get out of the race. This will be a CPC landslide, the NDP coming in second and the Liberals being crushed.
26 12 05 love, sydney
Abbotsford is changing but nothing short of a miracle would make this anything but Tory blue. There are more visible minorities, more middle-class suburbs and also more churches. There is no star candidate for either the NDP nor the Libs that would take this safe seat. Fast has just inherited a nice parliament pension, if he can continue breathing for eight more years.
29 11 05 Ryan
Ed Fast has been a popular city councillor in Abbotsford from the mid-1990's to 2005. Fast will have no problem holding onto this riding for the Conservatives. I predict that Abbotsford will have one of the highest margins of victory for the Conservatives in BC.
Outgoing MP Randy White has represented the riding since 1993 under the Reform/Alliance/Conservative banners. White had a huge margin of victory every election. Prior to Reform's sweep of BC in 1993, Abbotsford was a staunch PC riding under Ross Belsher and Bob Wenman.
22 05 05 Bear and Ape
This Bible-belt riding has voted for ultra-conservative Randy White for quite some time and now that White is calling it quits the news couldn't be better for the Conservatives (now we have to see what Cheryl Gallant does). Unless the Conservatives run a total buffoon or the CPC collapses ala the PC in 93, there is no reasonable argument for the Conservates not to win this one.
16 05 05 Steve G
Randy White's retirement is fantastic news for the party. I expect the new CPC candidate (soon to be MP) will have social conservative news as is the trend in this riding, but will not be so flippant about expressing them in such damaging ways.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
White's leaving could tighten the margin, but the reality is that the gap is too big. the second place candidate, the Liberals, would need three times his vote, and even then, he would lose. I don’t think it even matters who the tories run really. Many people call this the bible belt, I half agree. There is no belt factor, but this is certainly a socially right-wing area. Gay marriage would lose here if put to a referendum. With that kind of stance, I think a tory win is only natural.
03 05 05 Aric H
Yes because this is a riding that went Conservative by such a wide margin last time it would most likely stay Conservative this time, although I would like to add to the above post by pointing out that Conservative MP Randy White has recently announced he will be retiring and so there will not be an incumbent here in the next election.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
Actually Hatman, Randy White isn't running again. Nevertheless, this is part of the bible belt so the Conservatives should easily win this at least federally. Provincially, the two provincial ridings will go liberal, who are really conservative at least on fiscal issues, on May 17th so if the federal election comes on the heels of the provincial election, it may help the liberals marginally, but not enough to win this riding.
02 05 05 koby
Randy White's characterization of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms as a "social libertarian" "crutch" seemed to have inspired some. In response to the young Liberals saying gay marriage is all about the Charter (it's the Charter Stupid) Ezra Levant said no "it's the stupid Charter". Apparently White's well publicized diatribe also inspired Abbotsford voters. He easily got back into power. This is not the first time Abbotsford has followed White's lead. As Larry Campbell swept to power proclaiming the benefits of harm reduction, White, echoing the sentiments of US drug Czar Walters, called Campbell's plan for safe injection sites "harm extension." Recently Abbotsford city council has moved to stop safe injection sites from being set up there.
Even without White to inspire the faithful, Abbotsford will again go Conservative. In fact, it will not even be close.
29 04 05 Hatman
Abbotsford is in the Bible belt of the Fraser Valley. The Conservatives won here by 20,000 votes, and expect them to do a little bit better here. While Randy White has the history of saying the wrong thing, the locals like him, and will vote him in again overwhelmingly.

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