10:55 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:34 AM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Bill Cunningham
George Drazenovic
Timothy George Gidora
Green Party/Parti Vert
Ray Power
Bill Siksay

Bill Siksay

2004 Result:
Bill Siksay
Bill Cunningham
George Drazenovic
Shawn Hunsdale
Adam Desaulniers
Frank Cerminara
Hanne Gidora

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 01 06 David M.
Mustel just released a last minute poll that explicitly notes that:
"The Conservatives have the lead in the suburbs of Greater Vancouver and in the interior. The Liberals lead in the City of Vancouver, whereas the NDP have a dominant position on Vancouver Island (including Victoria) and in the Burnaby/New Westminster area."
Also noted is that "the less affluent tend to support the NDP". Given the facts that provincially, the Liberals are slightly underperforming viz. 2004; that the NDPer is now the incumbent, and that the NDP is has a "dominant position" in Burnaby New Westinster, I'll predict an NDP victory here.
13 01 06 rockindude
The Greens are running a more right of centre candidate this time, it will be interesting to see how they do. The Greens claim to pull support from across the political spectrum, we shall see on election night if this holds sway in this riding. Ray Power ran for the PC's in a federal election in the riding and recently ran for mayor of Vancouver.
02 01 06 my two cents
Drazenovic is not a very compelling candidate. Yes, he is young and attractive, but he sounds indecisive or uncommitted to specific policies in interviews. That characteristic is a liability when opponents have a habit of pointing their fingers and crying "Hidden Agenda!" He may be a decent campaigner, but I'm inclined to believe his results last election were largely achieved on the coattails of the party. The reason this matters is that constituents in this riding got accustomed to voting for the individual candidate when Svend Robinson was MP here. His local popularity consistently exceeded that of his party. And yes, like it or not, Siksay's close connection to Svend will count for something - some people WILL go to the polls and cast a ballot for "that Svend-guy." By no means will this be a landslide, Cunningham could take the seat... I'm just not convinced that the result will differ much from the last go-round.
27 12 05 B.A.S.
Not quite sure why this has changed into the *Too Close* category.
Billy is still the same guy, he is bringing in tons of big Liberals names this time around. He brought in tons of big Liberals names last time around. It got him close, but couldn`t put him over the top.
Even if the Liberal`s *momentum* in BC holds, no reason to see it tilting this riding...
25 12 05 love, sydney
It may go against the earlier trend, but ground troops for both Grit and Tory camps are saying there is a ripple of 'Siksay who?' out there. Now, they are not the most open and reliable sources, two of my friends say internal polls show that this is a riding open to change. The Svend factor may have boosted Siksay into Ottawa, his 1-1/2 years in the box aren't enough to buy him incumbent insurance. Plus he's a rather low-key, little lustre (tho' apparently a solid MP for those who call on him) candidate. Cunningham, who surprised me and many with his strong showing last time, is actually building on that. But I also feel the NDP will not lose both this riding and BBy-NW, so I'm wrong somewhere...
24 12 05 Bert
I'd like to suggest that the Green Party candidate, Ray Power, could do very well here. He has been active in politics, running for the Progressive Conservatives in this riding in 1993, and finishing second in the mayoral race in 1999. He has also been active in the community, volunteering with the CNIB among various other organizations. I'm not saying he will necessarily win, but he could have a significant role in how the riding plays out.
20 12 05 M. Lunn
Just like New Westminster has a burger poll, there is a pizza poll for this riding. So far 127 have ordered lean left Bill Siksay Pizza, 122 cunningHAM and Pineapple pizza, 115 George Drazenovic classic rustic pizza, and 52 Green Vegetarian pizza, so it looks like a three way race if we use this, although I wonder how many of them were from out of the riding.
20 12 05 BC Voter
"This time around there is no scandal"
- No scandal? Sure there is, as the entire constituency association left, only to have some hacks appointed to approve Cunningham's nomination.
"given the fact that the Liberal lead in BC and NDP's polling badly will make this riding fall to the Liberals"
- Liberals and the NDP are in a statistical dead heat in BC. Either they're both doing well or poorly, make up your mind.
"especially now that Cunningham has proven to a respected candidate"
- How so? I haven't seen anything that proves this, only that he got a plush job from the federal liberals.
"and Martin's BC campaign is better than expected."
- Better than what though? As it is not as good as 2004's. That was a nicely run campaign.
"Drazenovic, to the dismay of both the NDP and the Liberals did much better than they expected last time."
- Actually, he got third. And Cunningham was the one that surprised everyone.
"Last election, I think people thought the Tories would be shut out here, but in fact every time I saw an NDP or Lib sign, I would also see a Tory sign."
- I agree, as the results this time around will be *exactly* the same, as will the signage. Excellent correlation.
It'll be down to the wire for Cunningham and Siksay, with the outcome decided on how many votes Cunningham can suck up from Drazenovic's thus far lacklustre campaign.
19 12 05 watcher
I just kind of laugh to myself helplessly every time I think about this riding. Ask anyone in Burnaby what Bill Siksay has done as MP and no one will say anything more than "former secretary for Svend". On the other hand, ask anyone in Burnaby what Bill Cunningham has to offer to BC, and no one will say anything more than "close to Paul Martin and no longer plagued by scandal". Basically, in these parts, you just have Liberals and Dippers trading barbs with each other on Siksay being nothing more than someone who hitched a ride to Parliament on Svend's lingering prestige (which is kind of true) and reminders that being close to Paul Martin isn't really seen as a good thing in Burnaby, and that no one really cares if Cunningham legitimately won the nomination this time (which is also true). It should be noted, though, that if we assume that the Liberal attack ads at the closing days of the June 2004 election helped pull NDP votes to the Liberals, this can only mean bad news in Burnaby. Even with the attack ads, they were still able to elect NDP MPs to office, and so attack ads will no longer work on NDP voters this time around. As such, the Liberals can be safely assumed to be out of the picture.
Conservatives will be the wildcard here. Drazenovic ran the best campaign here in 2004, partly because his campaign wasn't delayed like Siksay's, and partly because his campaign had no nomination scandal like Cunningham's. But nearing the end of June 2004, problems started popping up for Stephen Harper's campaign at the national level and that most likely cost Drazenovic a few thousand votes. I can't really see Drazenovic screwing up his own campaign, so Stephen Harper's performance at the national level will determine who will win here. At the outset, the advantage goes to Siksay, but the Conservatives can win here if they're committed and well-coordinated. Colin Metcalfe, the NPA campaign manager who was largely credited with getting out the Chinese vote that was necessary to return the NPA to power in the 2005 civic election, is coordinating Conservative campaigns in all Lower Mainland ridings with significant Chinese populations (including Burnaby), so I'm expecting to see a tight race here.
18 12 05 Victor A.
I believe the NDP will lose this one, not by much but they are likely to lose it. The whole gentrification process in parts of Burnaby works against them, it did work against them in the last Privincial Election where the Provincial NDP did way worse than expected in this area of the Province. Despite a huge scandal around the nomination process, Cunningham was almost elected the last time around. This time around there is no scandal and given the fact that the Liberal lead in BC and NDP's polling badly will make this riding fall to the Liberals. Now, will it be really close? Yes, I think so but I have a hint Cunningham will win with as much as 1500 votes ahead of Siksay. I really have hard time believing Siksay will hang onto this one, especially now that Cunningham has proven to a respected candidate and Martin's BC campaign is better than expected. I also believe Burnaby-New Westminster will fall to this Liberals, but the good news for the NDP supporters is that Victoria will become the NDP territory and probably Vancouver Centre as well. The NDP should win around 4 or 5 ridings currently held by the Conservatives so their total in the province will rise from 5 to around 9-10, despite losing ground in Burnaby.
18 12 05 MK
I'm going to predict a big prediction- a Tory win. Drazenovic, to the dismay of both the NDP and the Liberals did much better than they expected last time. He is young, and definitely formidable to be Burnaby Douglas' MP. Last election, I think people thought the Tories would be shut out here, but in fact every time I saw an NDP or Lib sign, I would also see a Tory sign. As the underdog, Drazenovic will have to do some smart campaigning (not like his campaign wasn't already) to win this.
13 12 05 SFU Grad
A good portion of this riding went BC Liberal in the provincial election? All four provincial ridings in Burnaby were won by very slim margins. The two ridings that make up virtually all of Burnaby-Douglas were indeed won by the BC Liberals, but Burnaby North was by less than 100 votes and Burquitlam by just less than 400...and provincially this was two-way, not three-way race. I don't think the provincial election provides much guidance prediction wise anyways as support for the provincial parties doesn't necessarily transfer to the federal equivalent (the BC Liberal vote includes federal conservatives and liberals, while the some provincial NDPers may well vote liberal federally, etc.). While agree with Bear and Ape that SFU students vote where they live...my experience is that a portion of SFU students (including myself) do live and vote in Burnaby-Douglas. In a very close race this could make the difference on election day.
11 12 05 John H
People are not seeming to look at the big picture here, Bill Siksay has been a pretty invisible MP for Burnaby Douglas. He does not hold the name recognition that Svend has and Cunningham only lost by 934 votes last time. If the Liberals can run as strong of a campaign as they did last time, I think we could see a jolly Bill Cunningham making his way to Ottawa. A good portion of this riding went BC Liberal in the provincial election and seeing as the George Drazenovic is running again, I don't see the Conservatives making a big splash here. I expect to see a close race with Cunningham coming out on top.
10 12 05 anonymous
This is going to be a very interesting riding to watch, but I have to guess that it will go Conservative. In the 2004 election, the NDP candidate received a lot of support from people who expected him to act as a temporary replacement until Svend returned; but Siksay hasn't done anything for the riding since he was elected, and now Svend is running again -- but not in this riding.
At the same time, I can't see Cunningham winning much support -- he is far too closely tied to Paul Martin to be popular with voters who still hold a grudge against Martin for his work as Finance minister.
07 12 05 Bear and Ape
Goodness gracious! We just keep repeating ourselves every time there is a riding which houses a university. Student don't vote in the riding where their school is located but in their home riding, if they vote at all. The NDP can not rely on SFU student votes to help bolster their support. Having said that we still think the NDP will take this riding's history, the incumbancy factor and the fact that the NDP are doing pretty well in BC.
03 12 05 SFU student
It will be a close 3 way race no doubt, but in the end I think Bill Siksay will get re-elected. He has the strength of incumbency and is a good MP that is liked in the community. The organization he has behind him is still as strong as when Svend was around, and the party is throwing all of its extra resources into the riding.
Though the NDP fared less well in the provincial races, the NDP-affliated Burnaby Citizens Association managed to win 5/8 city council seats as well as re-elect Mayor Derek Corrigon also is a good sign about how it will play out for an NDP victory.
As for the Liberals and Conservatives, they will come close but not close enough to win. Cunnigham hasn't impressed people enough to win. And I think the fear vote may be less of a factor this time.
Since Simon Fraser University will be full with students in a very rear winter campaign, that also might strengthen the NDP vote as the youth vote usually is high for the NDP.
29 11 05 SFU Grad
While Bill Siksay hasn't been Ottawa for a long time i think he's impressed everyday voters in Burnaby-Douglas. Rather than characterizing him as a "ghost-mp", i would suggest his approach is low-key. He tends to quietly attend community events and meet with regular people, rather than grand-standing. Burnaby-Douglas is a diverse riding socially and politically, so it would be foolish to predict an easy victory for any candidate, but i think i would give Siksay the advantage at the outset. This seat will be competitive and the outcome could be influenced by what happens nationally.
29 11 05 B.A.S.
Cunningham is in trouble again this time around. His close ties with Martin last time around may have helped, but they can only hurt this go round.
Funny how he didn't have to go through a nomination fight, yet again.
Siskay has built up too much of a profile in the riding for Billy to overcome.
28 11 05 Mike from BC
I wouldn’t be so quick to write off this riding as a given NDP, especially considering the ghost-MP status of Siksay both locally and nationally. Cunningham ran an excellent campaign and this riding's demographics are always changing with an influx of new higher-density housing over the last 2 years and going into the future.
This will again be a tight 3-way race and will go to the team with the most hard campaign work.
Edge on campaign organization: Cunningham over Siksay by a tiny margin.
The controversy that dogged Cunningham last year is now no longer pertinent and will make a difference, perhaps enough for him to take it.
Conservatives have an outside chance.... but I say a distant third as the NDP has become more of a national force and the "fear factor" has become less of an issue since last year.
27 11 05 jb
Peter Julian is a hard- core socialist and sounds very angry if you ever hear him speak.
The Liberals aren't going to do very well in B.C and there is a small possibility this riding could go Conservative if Peter Julian has managed to alienate too many people
14 11 05 Superman
Too close to call. Bill Siksay, though popular in this riding, only won Cunningham by less than a thousand votes last time round. Drazenovic only lost to Siksay by 3000 votes, and to Cunningham by 2000. In this three-way rematch, anything can happen. Due to the close results, expect major targeting by all three parties. First, the Conservatives (polling hows they are down in BC) could leak votes to the Liberals, leaving the Liberal candidate with a win. This could also happen vice versa, with the Liberals leaking major votes to the Conservatives, leaving Drazenovic with a win. Either way, Siksay should not be called a shoe in just yet.
25 10 05 Paul
Bill Siksay is sort of a Svend Robinson clone without the craziness factor.
Previous support for the Canadian Alliance/Reform will never be replicated in B.C., there got many "F*** the system" votes that they will never get back now that they have been replaced by the new CPC. Expect an easy NDP win here, especially as he is the incumbent now.
19 06 05 A. Vancouverite
One thing that should be pointed out is that Bill Siksay started campaigning late due to Svend Robinson's ring controversy -- whereas the Conservatives and Liberals had been campaigning for a long time before the writ was dropped. While it's not guaranteed that the NDP will hold this riding, because of how long were going to have to wait until the next election, I'm leaning slightly predicting that they will hold the riding. So long as the NDP can improve its results from the last election, and so long as Siksay's campaign isn't delayed again (and I can't see why it would be), then this is a likely NDP hold. But if the Conservatives pick a really poor candidate and the Liberals pick a really good candidate, not to mention the strength of their respective campaign teams, then the NDP will have a lot more difficulty holding onto the seat. Also, as has been said before, incumbency in a close riding like this is important. In the Burnaby ridings the NDP lacked incumbency in the provincial election and still came very close to winning the three ridings they didn't win. On the federal stage they have incumbency and it's likely the overall NDP vote will be up at least somewhat from the last election (even one or two points would make a big difference).
20 06 05 Bear and Ape
We would like to caution those who'd predict a non-NDP win here that King Svend never really won with that big of a margin (the 97 election comes to mind) and throughout the 90's both the Liberals and the Reform/ Canadian Alliance always had good returns. Yet in the end Svend, despite all his faults and annoyances, wound up on top. Now that Svend is off doing other things, the riding has an incumbent who (as Nick Boragina so elegantly put it) is a non-scary version of Svend. That in itself would seem to be a good indication that the NDP will keep this riding. However in addition to all this, the Conservatives are seemingly becoming more religious-right by the day (not something the bodes well anywhere in Vancouver or the immediate suburbs), the Liberals are apparent scandal-ridden crooks and the NDP are acting like responsible politicians, making the country's government run smoothly while promoting their (non-hidden) agenda. It seems the choice would be all too clear for the voters of Burnaby-Douglas.
12 06 05 Jay
This is a three-way race. Surprisingly, George Drazenovic, a Conservative candidate in a usual NDP stronghold, didn't fare so badly. I think Bill Siksay has an advantage over both Cunningham and Drazenovic due to his popularity, but if both candidates campaign smartly, they might just be able to eek out a win.
05 06 05 A.S.
I was going to bring up the provincial NDP's underperformance in seemingly sure-shot Burnaby (1 out of 3 ridings, 1 out of 4 if you include Burquitlam), too, as--at the moment--the biggest potential damper on Siksay's "inevitable" path t/w reelection. Then again, with provincial being 2-way and federal being 3-way, there's the issue of where those votes would go; y'know, Gord Campbell voters having two electable non-NDP federal parties to choose from, certain "Dosanjih Democrats" possibly choosing the federal Grits, Bill Siksay now having the "incumbent's advantage" none of the provincial Kneedippers enjoyed, etc. And then there's the big shocker of '04: the Grits pulling a very close second despite what looked like a candidacy fiasco. But again, Siksay now has the incumbent's advantage. Then again, memories of Svend are fading--but maybe that won't matter. If there's anyplace where the NDP's status as a "clean alternative" to Liberal/Tory is positioned to bear fruit, it's BC--and yes, despite the disappointing Burnaby results, the echo-effect of solid provincial leadership plays a part...
01 06 05 Miles Lunn
Considering the Provincial liberals won all three ridings in Burnaby-Douglas (albeit by narrow margins) this could cause some problems for the NDP, although they can still pull it off since many provincial liberals vote conservative federally so if they can hold over 75% of those who voted NDP provincially and hope the BC Liberal vote splits 50/50 between the Conservatives and liberals the NDP can still hold this one. Much of the provincial success was due to getting the Chinese vote out who represent about 30% of the riding and generally vote liberal provincially and federally. If the federal liberals wish to take this, they should have someone who speaks Mandarin and Cantonese accompany the candidate when door knocking as was done in the provincial campaign.
01 06 05 Mike D
I agree there are signs of trouble for the NDP if you look at the provincial results. In an otherwise positive election for the NDP, the one area that disappointed was north Burnaby. Must be the demographic changes as house values skyrocket (or possibly weak candidates?). But Siksay inherited a rock-solid campaign team and has proven a good MP (though lacking time so far for that to fully sink-in). If things go badly for the NDP in the election this seat will be up for grabs, but for now the polls are showing the NDP in the 18-22% range which should keep this seat barely in NDP hands again.
08 05 05 CornPop
My good friend Billy could raise some eyebrows this time around. If the Conservatives force an election in BC right after the provincial election, people in BC are going to be really pissed off at the CPC. In almost every riding, the CPC popular vote went down compared to the CA vote in 2000. Now that the CPC is once again the Big Blue Machine, BC'ers are wary. All the Liberals have to do is get about 2000 votes away from the CPC to get Siskay out. A shame really, because Siskay is a good man.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
Robinson, and his errors, were fresh in the mind of voters here last go round and they still elected an NDP MP. Remember that incumbents often enjoy a 100 to 1000 vote increase just for being the sitting MP. Speaking technically, after you take out deaths (mostly older folks, who are slightly more tory) and add in new voters (younger folk who like the NDP) you get a swing to the NDP of about 100 or so votes. Of course, people can change their minds when voting, but trying to nickel and dime this riding to the NDP is pointless, as Siksay has become popular with his riding and the NDP as a whole. He's the non scary Svend. His margin should increase, and I'd even expect the tories to finish second here.
04 05 05 Liberal Crank
Bill Cunningham has a solid shot at taking this one. Bill Siksay won a narrow victory on the back of Svend's organization (In all fairness to Siksay he was a part of Svend's organization.) A key factor will be Svend Robinson running in Vancouver Centre. Many of Svends people will follow him, which will allow Cunningham to win this on the ground.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
I wouldn't be so quick to call this one. I have been campaigning in the provincial riding of Burnaby North, which is smaller but entirely in this riding, and more people at the door have responded in favour of the BC Liberals as opposed to the BC NDP. Since the Provincial NDPer's will go liberal federally while the BC Liberal vote will split between the liberals and conservatives I think it is difficult to tell at this point. A conservative win is possible but unlikely based on the demographics of this riding who are generally wary of social conservatism. A liberal win shouldn't either be ruled out since the sponsorship scandal has had less impact in BC than elsewhere. The NDP will likely hold this, but until a firm trend is established in the polls, this riding cannot be called.
02 05 05 BrianJA
Siksay, now the incumbent, has been a very good MP. Svend Robinson's influence is still alive and kicking in Burnaby-Douglas, so it would take a very, VERY strong candidate here to unseat Siksay. I call this one for the NDP.
02 05 05 BLJ
The 2004 race was considerably closer than what had been forecast considering the considerable negative publicity the Liberal candidate, Bill Cuningham received: Lib - 32.5%, NDP - 34.6%, CPC - 27.6%, which results also nearly mirrored neighbouring Burnaby-New Westminster. The Liberals main areas of strength are the City of Vancouver and its neighbouring municipalities: the North Shore, Richmond, and Burnaby, into Surrey. That said, with an incumbent this seat leans NDP.
29 04 05 Hatman
Burnaby-Douglas is NDP territory, and has always been. While the 2004 election was close, the Liberals finished 2nd, so their vote can only go down, and the NDP can only go up. The Conservative candidate may make this riding interesting though, but I doubt s/he will win.

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