10:56 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
3:29 PM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Burnaby-New Westminster
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Marc Dalton
Green Party/Parti Vert
Scott Henry Janzen
Peter Julian
Mary Pynenburg

Peter Julian

2004 Result:
Peter Julian
Mary Pynenburg
Mike Redmond
Revel Kunz
Dana Green
Péter Pál Horváth

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 01 06 BurWester
If the debate on Tuesday night at Burr Theatre was any measure of things, Dalton is the one Pynenburg and Julian are worrying about. He received repeated direct attacks from both. The incumbent NDPer Julian more or less ignored Pynenburg and only referenced her parties failures. The attacks toward Dalton were non-stop. He did a decent job. He may not be the best but he'll likely prevail if the tide keeps going his way.
20 01 06 David M.
Mustel just released a last minute poll that explicitly notes that:
"The Conservatives have the lead in the suburbs of Greater Vancouver and in the interior. The Liberals lead in the City of Vancouver, whereas the NDP have a dominant position on Vancouver Island (including Victoria) and in the Burnaby/New Westminster area."
Also noted is that "the less affluent tend to support the NDP". Given the facts that provincially, the Liberals are slightly underperforming viz. 2004; that the NDPer is now the incumbent, and that the NDP is has a "dominant position" in Burnaby New Westinster, I'll predict an NDP victory here.
10 01 06 Brandon
This riding is so blue collar, I can't see it going to the Conservatives at all. Pynengberg and Julian were neck in neck last time around, but I think Julian will prevail in the end. He's been involved in a lot of things in his time in the House of Commons, especially for a rookie MP, and I think that exposure will bode well for his chances of re-election. Especially considering the fact that Paul Forseth as the area's MP earlier had done not a whole lot of anything worth credit for the riding previously.
08 01 06 watcher
While I don't know much about what went on in the Conservative nominations, I can tell you Mary Pynenberg's campaign is going down the gutters. She failed to show up at a televised all candidates debate, and lost the endorsement of the New Westminster mayor (who endorsed her in June 2004).
In June 2004 Mary Pynenberg criticized Mike Redmond for being "involved" in the closure of the St. Mary's hostpital, and now Joyce Murray, who was a provincial cabinet minister at the time of the closure, is right next door campaigning in the same party as Mary! Believe me, there are voters here who are very aware of this.
At the same time, I think Peter Julian has a better chance at winning than Marc Dalton. Marc's campaign isn't too shabby so far (Miles Lunn is on record AGAIN for spouting his usual fearmongering rhetoric, but let me tell you there are social moderates here who are willing to rally behind Dalton), but Julian is putting up a strong campaign as well (actually I think the very first campaign signs here were erected by the NDP) and I'm just not sensing the momentum for the Conservatives in this riding, which they need in order to win this riding. Plus Julian has incumbency. I do think that a Conservative upset is likely, and that they can probably finish second in this riding, but if I have to make a call right now I'll err on the side of safety and give the benefit of the doubt to the NDP.
08 01 06 Ben
I know that Conservatives here are probably getting very excited about the national polling numbers but as a teaching colleague of Mr. Dalton pointed out to me the other day Marc is exactly the kind of scarry right-wing evangelical Christian that must be getting daily messages from the Tory central campaign telling him to say nothing, say nothing and say nothing because he'll scare all those swing-voters here in BC and back in Ontario away from Harper and his much less scary-looking Conservatives.
Why not change my prediction to a Conservative win then? Well I think that Julian still has the best chance to carry the left and centre vote here considering the liberal implosion that we're all watching.
08 01 06 Third Party Observer
Neither Julian nor Pynenburg live in this riding, so it negate any talk of outsider. Also, looking at the poll number in BC saw a big gain in conservative support both on CTV poll and SES poll, it means votes are shifting in the suburb of Vancouver like this one. I predict Dalton will win this.
07 01 06 love, sydney
I don't discount that Dalton has a shot -- a long shot, but a shot still -- at stealing this. But he is an outsider, and the Tories are the type who try to make a big deal out of other parties' candidates, how they are appointed and where they reside.
05 01 06 Guybush
My My My Two Cents, you're just a treasure trove of misinformation. Dalton won the nomination not last month, but back in April. Eight months of doorknocking isn't completely useless.
03 01 06 Guybrush
To My two cents: You're wrong on a number of counts.
Supporters living outside of the riding are not eligible to vote at Convervative Party nomination meetings. Marc Dalton won his nomination against two opponents (including one Indo Canadian opponent with a heavy ethnic turnout) by getting 250+ Burnaby-New West residents out to vote for him. Clearly he has some roots in the community.
Neither Mary Pynenburg nor Peter Julian live in the riding, so its a bit difficult to make paraschuting an issue.
Also FYI, as you didn't bother to look it up before posting, Mike Redmond won 23 polls, plus the advanced poll, not zero.
03 01 06 my two cents
Actually, of the three major parties, only ONE candidate is unknown in this riding. Julian is low-key, but is also an effective networker and enjoys the incumbency advantage in a traditional NDP stronghold. Pynenberg has enjoyed a prominent position with the City of New Westminster, and the Liberals have targeted this riding (incidentally, she somehow managed to secure a spot right next to Paul Martin at a couple of his latest B.C. press conferences. I kinda feel for the guy who always gets stuck in the back). Dalton is TOTALLY unknown, even to riding Conservatives, because he does not live or work here (he lives in Maple Ridge). Just to get here from his home, he would have to take the Albion ferry to Fort Langley, drive across Surrey, take either the Patullo or Port Mann Bridge into town, and then drive into the part of New West represented by this riding -It could take him two hours to get here at rush hour!!! Let's remember, he only won the nomination last month. His support among Chinese, Indo, or any other kind of voter is less than his rivals for that very reason. If you contend that he can campaign his way into personal popularity parity with his opponents in less than a month, I'm dubious. He has a lot of campaigning to do, as he is very, VERY far behind.
31 12 05 M. Lunn
The Liberals have only written off seats they obviously won't win like Abbotsford. In fact the Liberals are quite optimistic about their chances of making gains in BC and they have heavily targeted ridings like West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, Burnaby-Douglas, Burnaby-New Westminster, New Westminster-Coquitlam, Newton-North Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells, South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale. Some Liberals are even talking about winning seats in the Interior. While I think that is going a little overboard, almost all the polls show the Liberals up in BC and Tories down. If Mary Pynenburg doesn't win, then Peter Julian will win. The Tories have taken a big hit in BC so despite their small gains in Ontario, this will be offset by losses in BC. Finally Marc Dalton's religious fundamentalist attitude will scare many residents off. Religious fundamentalist may sell well in Abbotsford, but not Burnaby-New Westminster,
02 01 06 an observer
This is a two way race between the NDP and the Liberals. Firstly, Marc Dalton is an unknown carpet bagger from Maple Ridge; he has no roots in this community. He is an ultra conservative who reflects the Bible Belt of the Fraser Valley, he will alienate most voters in this riding.
Secondly, the "ethnic vote" has been faced with some fairly racist comments from the Liberals (Olivia Chow being compaired to a Chow Chow, and Jack Layton being described as having a "boiled dog face smile"), but do not assume stupid remarks made by campaign workers will derail the Liberal vote. Indo Canadians traditionally vote Liberal, and the Chinese vote, though offened by recent remarks, will likely not go to the far right or the far left. These are good economic times, why would anyone try to upset the apple cart.
Thirdly, the voters of this riding have not indicated an interest in reopening "hot button" social issues. Marc Dalton's personal agenda would reopen same sex marriage and the abortion issue (as evidenced by his own remarks to BCTF delegates when he argued vehemently against the establishment of BCTF programs designed to combat homophobia in schools, and when he brought Evangelical Christian "family life" groups into the public school system to make presentations to students during class time). There is no local interest in going there.
Fourthly, Peter Julian has been a hard working MP who has represented his riding well, but he won last time around by a razor thin margin. The Liberal candidate may benefit from traditional NDP supporters who vote strategically to ensure the extremist Conservative candidate does not win. Either way, it will be a tight two way race with the Mr Dalton coming in last.
30 12 05 Russ
Marc Dalton has a chance against Peter Julian. With the Liberals fighting to hold the seats they have and writing off nearly everything else, cancer-survivor Mary Pynenburg is out of the race. Julian has been a stable and steady MP who is best known for the Now headline where he admitted to not being able to accomplish anything in Ottawa. Newcomer Marc Dalton may stand a chance against Julian as the reality is all three candidates are unknowns to the general public and Dalton's strong support in the Chinese and Indo communities may be able to carry him to Ottawa. The Green candidate Scott Janzen is, like 300 of his fellow Greens, a non-factor.
29 12 05 DL
I think that whatever advantage the Liberals ever had with the Chinese voters got eliminated with all the publicity about top Liberals having a racist blog comparing Olivia Chow to a dog - not to mention the Liberal refusal to apologize to the Chinese community over the head tax. These issues are getting saturation publicity in the Chinese media and will do any Liberal running in a riding with a large Chinese population MASSIVE DAMMAGE.
28 12 05 Nappy
Well it certainly was interesting how all the information applied to this riding. It has been obvious for most of us that actually know what is going on in this riding that it is really a two way race between the NDP and the Liberals; Marc is neither known, nor is the conservative a really big major factor in this riding. But being a political junky, I have got to say, none of the mention has realized the fatal mistake most political parties had seemed to fail to realize for the GVRD, from both provincial and Federal. The fact that the not-so minority Chinese presence and increasing number of Chinese origin citizens in this riding will certainly swing the ball around for this riding. As alot of us know, Chinese turn out to voting were small in earlier elections. But let me tell you this, from the last provincial election, if it wasn't for the significant differences the chinese vote has made, even star candidate like Wally Oppal would have lost.
The fact that Chinese has a tendency to be capitalists already ruled out their vote for NDP. NDP will hold strong on most of their vote, but they will not get more. The Chinese vote will be splitting between Liberal and Conservatives. I was visiting a friend of mine that lives in highrises around Metrotown. And as I was walking into the building, there was Mary Pynenburg doorknocking, and wouldn't you know it, Chinese, who usually don't open the door for anyone, open the door for her. And with all those anti-chinese sentiments going on from the last election, it just made my mind stronger to believe that Ms. Pynenburg have quite a overwhelming chance to take over the riding. Whereas I was at the highschool where Jack Layton was visiting, and I got to tell you, I saw Mr. Julian Crotching on the sidelines like a sad puppy. and that got me asking the question, who is really running in the riding? Jack or Peter?
So this one is pretty close, but I am putting my money on Pynenburg.
28 12 05 my two cents
If I remember correctly, every poll in New West went NDP last election and Julian handily won New West. Pynenburg won Burnaby more narrowly, but Burnaby comprises about 70% of the riding. I don't believe Redmond won a single poll. This is a two-horse race. Dalton is, frankly, an also-ran. He only won the party's nomination by packing the meeting with his Maple Ridge congregation. Of course, Maple Ridge is 20+ kilometres away, so none of those people will be able to vote for him. Pynenburg and Julian both live in New West, and despite talk that Julian is invisible, he was been quite effective in attending community events and meeting people (in his low-key manner). This riding will NOT go conservative. The Liberals will need a strong campaign locally and provincially to pick this seat up.
22 12 05 Ben
I think the big factor in BC is that the provincial and federal wings of the NDP work together so closely compared to the Campbell liberals and the LPC and CP. Provincial voting data will be in the hands of Julian's campaign team whereas Pynenburg and Dalton will be starting with 2004 federal election data. Seeing as the NDP won 2 of 3 provincial seats that overall with Burnaby-New Westminster I suspect Julian's vote total will increase compared to his 2004 numbers while Pynenburg's numbers will be static at best.
Oh and for those who predict a Conservative win anywhere in the GVRD you're really setting yourself up for disappointment, the only urban ridings Harper will carry this election are in Alberta.
19 12 05 David
Bah! I just finished reading Middleman's article from -14 10 05-. He mentioned that "voters will find him [Marc Dalton] an interesting candidate being that he is a member of the BCTF". I think that his awkward membership with the populist BCTF will hurt him, if anything. The Burnaby Now published an article in the midst of the recent teachers' strike (http://www.burnabynow.com/issues05/104105/news/104105nn5.html), where "Dalton, the Progressive Conservative candidate for the Burnaby-New Westminster riding, decided to cross the illegal picket line set up outside Pitt Meadows elementary and return to work."
>From what I gather, Dalton's relationship with the BCTF is hokey at best. Using his relationship with the organization is a pretty ugly fallacy that I don't think will fly well in this one.
18 12 05 watcher
Now that the campaign offices have opened (Dalton's campaign office is pretty much across the street from Pynenberg's -- guess that makes shouting matches a lot easier...), it looks like neither Mary Pynenberg nor Marc Dalton are going down without a fight. I will dutifully move this one back to the too close to call column.
I will, however, note that, upon reviewing the federal electoral history of BC, I will no longer buy into the belief that social conservatism is a major issue ANYWHERE in BC. In 2000, the Alliance, led by Stockwell Day (much more socially conservative than Harper, but hey at least he's more atheltic, and he smiles more often than Harper too...) actually received much more votes in BC than Harper's Conservatives did in 2004. While this doesn't lead me to believe that BC actually likes social conservatism, it does lead me to believe that social conservatism simply isn't a big issue here. If a socially conservative candidate can offer voters something other than social conservatism, will voters accept that? That's certainly possible, in my book.
Which brings me to the point that, I'm left pondering whether Marc Dalton has more to offer than social conservatism. I certainly think he is, simply for the fact that he is a member of the BC Teachers Federation (a very leftist organization in BC) and he hasn't been expelled from the union yet. On top of that, he's working hard and getting a lot of media coverage, not to mention that the Conservative Party actually has a policy agenda this time. Therefore, I, just another pundit, will assign Marc Dalton into the potential winners camp as well as Peter Julian and Mary Pynenberg, whether anyone likes it or not.
14 12 05 Cappy
I saw Mary Pynenburg the other day and she told me that her office(which is open) was in the Royal Oak and Kingsway area. Now, if I am not mistaken, this is definately in the riding. Gee, NDP supporter, you seem to be willing to spread incorrect info.
14 12 05 Mercator
I checked the web sites ... and then the maps ... the Pynenburg campaign office at Marlborough and Kingsway is well within the boundaries of Burnaby-New Westminster ... and practically across the street from the Conservative campaign office and the Returning Office. Perhaps the geographically-challenged correspondent should consider investing in a map.
The office location has nothing to do with who will win ... but the invisible Peter Julian has made all of the difference.
10 12 05
Julian seems to be the first one out of the gate, with large signs up all the way down Kingsway. Pynenburg has yet again opened up an office outside the riding boundaries, and I haven't seen any sign of a Dalton campaign yet (although Harper has visited the riding).
08 12 05 newToNW
The Liberals will really give the NDP a run for their money in this riding. Burnaby and New Westminster are traditionally NDP territory but there is a perception in New Westminster that crime is out of control. There was a drive-by shooting here the other day and I am sure that the Liberal's proposal to ban hand guns will appeal to many electors.
02 12 05 M. Lunn
Anybody who realistically thinks the Conservatives will win this is obviously not following the polls closely. A religious fundamentalist in a rather urban riding if anything will scare voters away from the Conservatives. The NDP will likely get the same if not better, but I also think the Liberals will likely improve as well. The reason is Paul Martin has done more for BC in the last six months than either Chretien or Mulroney did in their whole term. The sponsorships scandal is not a big issue outside of Quebec. I would say this is too close to call, but it will be between the Liberals and NDP.
01 12 05 love, sydney
Another tight race, but the Cons running a Pitt Meadows candidate likely tosses this to Pynenburg. The Libs bill to reduce personal income tax -- one that neither Con nor NDP were willing to support -- could be converted into votes; the NDP's bragging about 'a budget' may supplicate their regular supporters, but the law and order issue that played a minor factor in the municipal election could pinch some populist NDP type voters to seek out other options.
29 11 05 MS
This one is a race between the two current opposition parties. The Liberal will not be picking up any seats in New West or points west. Peter Julian's first time as been one of talking, not one of doing. Voters mainly awarded him the seat on a campaign of St. Mary's (a provincial issue) and Brian Mulroney (an old federal issue). Julian is an excellent campaigner, however he may have found his match in the personable Marc Dalton of the Conservatives. The Pitt Meadows school teacher has strong ties to the riding's ethnic communities, where he and his wife have provided guidance to families struggling with their new lives in Canada. If Dalton can win enough of the non-WASP vote, he may be able to take Julian at the wire.
09 11 05 watcher
Mary Pynenberg is "not well known" in Metrotown? I find that somewhat difficult to believe. In 2004, all three candidates from the major parties knocked doors until their knuckles bled (not literally, of course). How any of them would not be well known in any region of this riding is a little beyond me.
The closeness of the votes in 2004 have shown that candidates probably matter more than, say, Vancouver Center, where Hedy Fry stayed holed up somewhere during the last days of the election campaigns and still won by 3000 votes over second place Kennedy Stewart, but even Vancouver Center is going to be a battle of the candidates as opposed to party, what with Svend running and all.
I should note that jb is quite talented in picking out people's dirty past. However, with regards to Pynenberg specifically, since the second Gomery report has almost no impact on voters' sentiments, except for a very brief weekend, I don't think scandal types of baggage will do much damage to Pynenberg. That said, I agree with Miles Lunn that the Liberals have a chance at winning this riding. They will have to fight for it.
Now to continue my defense of Marc Dalton: I agree that family-military-faith wouldn't go over well in this riding. But just because this riding doesn't like something, it doesn't mean it's necessarily fundamentalist radicalism. Furthermore, neither jb nor Miles Lunn has answered my original question: how would a radical fundamentalist obtain union delegate status in the BC Teachers Federation? I'll further add that prior to the Alliance + PC merger, Marc Dalton was actually a member of the federal Progressive Conservatives, which is now seen as a moderate wing of the current Conservative Party. That said, I still don't think he'll win this riding, and I also agree that Stephen Harper is walking the hard right path, but I do believe that Marc Dalton is being unfairly discriminated against by certain individuals.
25 10 05 M. Lunn
This will definitely not go Conservative. Marc Dalton's fundamentalism and the hard right which seems to be taking control of the Conservatives may sell well out in the Fraser Valley, but not in Burnaby. Burnaby is pretty equally split between the right and left on economic issues as evident from the last provincial election, but this is not the case on social issues. As for saying the liberals won't win this, I wouldn't be so sure, since local candidates have a very small impact in urban ridings. Besides the NDP won most of the New Westminster polls last time around where Mary Pynenburg was from while the liberals did the best in Burnaby where Mary Pynenburg isn't well known. One should remember the Conservatives are down from the last election and most of their support is likely to migrate over to the liberals as opposed to the NDP, so the NDP needs to pick up some liberal or Green support to hold this one.
14 10 05 Middleman
This riding was a close race between all three parties in 2004 and should prove to be another close one in 2006. I hear the CPC candiate Marc Dalton is a school teacher and someone formerly in the Canadian Armed Forces, and he ran against current Maple Ridge MP, Randy Kamp for the nomination in that riding in 2004, and gave him one heck of a good fight for that nomination. And I know that he has been campaigning in the riding for while. I think the voters will find him an interesting candidate being that he is a member of the BCTF, and advocates smaller government, less taxes... Peter Julian will have a hard time 'branding' a teacher and union member as a 'right-winger'.
12 10 05 jb
Dalton is a parachute candidate from Pitt Meadows. When he ran for the nomination in Maple Ridge-Pitt Readows-Mission in 2004, his slogan was "Family. Military. Faith." I don't think that sort of approach will go over very well in Burnaby or New Westminster.
Pynenburg has so much negative baggage that I can't believe the Liberals are running her again.
Julian has been one of the stars among the rookie MPs of all parties. He's very active in the community, and not just "photo-ops". Just a month ago, I saw him around Kingsway/Willingdon leading a volunteer crew cleaning up the Metrotown area. He's also held a lot of community consultations, around specific issues, and also meetings with different ethnic communities.
Julian squeaked by last year. He'll win by a significant margin in 2006.
09 10 05 watcher
If the election is to be held right now, then Peter Julian will win with a wider margin than last time. This is because Mary Pynenberg has been all but absent from Burnaby-New Westminster. According to local offices, the NDP is keeping tighter tabs on Marc Dalton than Mary Pynenberg.
Also, I'd like to ask something: how would a radical fundamentalist obtain UNION DELEGATE STATUS in the BC Teachers Federation? What I've seen in this section looks like political smear once again. Is there anything other than Dalton's history as a pastor or some "eroding religious freedom" comment that would put him under the fundamentalist camp?
That said though, I'm currently putting this one in NDP because the Conservative banner simply doesn't sell well here, regardless of policy platform. And I don't like Peter Julian much anyway. He's pretty much a photo-op MP that can run a good campaign but doesn't actually do much in Parliament. Add that to the fact that there's still plenty of time for the Liberals to rev up their engine, my NDP prediction would be a tentative one.
20 06 05 Bear and Ape
Liberals will put on a fight and could be the spoilers if they steal enough of the Conservative vote. The CPC choosing Marc Dalton as their candidate is doing nothing to help their image as a religious-right party, and will likely hurt them everywhere in Vancouver & environs. Curious ironic side note, if googling Marc Dalton, be sure to spell Marc with a "c" as the alternative spelling will generate hits to an individual who has a VERY different career and would not likely be in Harper's conservative party.
01 06 05 M. Lunn
After nominating fundamentalist Marc Dalton for the Conservatives, the Tories definitely won't win this riding. The battle will be between the NDP who are strong in New Westminster and the Edmonds area of Burnaby vs. the liberals who are strongest in and around Metrotown on the west side of the riding.
26 05 05 JFB
Il fallait attendre le résultat des élections. Avec des victoires néo-démocrates convaincantes au provincial, je pense que le comté va demeurer NPD. Peter Julian n'a pas fait un mauvais travail et les Libéraux ne devraient pas augmenter leur part de vote. Victoire NPD.
22 05 05 EP
The Torries seem to be rolling in the radical social conservatives in BC! Marc Dalton, a social conservative, has won the CPC nomination in Burnaby-New Westminster (BC). He was pastor of a community church and says he is concerned about the "erosion of religious liberties in the past number of years."This would certainly not be helpful in CPC's goal to soften its far right image.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
I would say the NDP has the best chance of winning here, but considering there was only a 5 point spread between the third place conservatives and first place NDP, any of the three parties could win here. Mike Redmond is not running again and even though he was one of the more moderate Tory candidates in BC, the fact he was active with the BC Liberals who shut down the St. Mary's Hospital may have hurt his chances. He also won the advanced polls showing there is conservative potential and this riding would have gone Canadian Alliance had it existed in 2000. Likewise, the liberals haven't fallen that much in BC compared to elsewhere in Canada. And unlike Jean Chretien and Preston Manning, Paul Martin is well liked in BC, while Stephen Harper isn't so a liberal win is still possible.
29 04 05 Hatman
Burnaby-New Westminster should go NDP because it did so in 2004. The NDP is up in the polls, while the Liberals, who finished 2nd here in 2004 have gone down. Much like Burnaby-Douglas, the tories may be a factor here, but not much.

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