2:22 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:00 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Delta-Richmond East
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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John Cummins
William Jonsson
Green Party/Parti Vert
Jean-Philippe Laflamme
Patricia Whittaker

John Cummins

2004 Result:
John Cummins
Shelley Leonhardt
Itrath Syed
Dana L. Miller

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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18 01 06 Bear and Ape
We are very confused by Tsawwassen Observer's comments about corporate tax rates. The comments seem to imply that the voters of this riding would favor corporate tax cuts but yet it also implies that they will vote Liberal. Isn't the Conservative party (or rather the two parties which merged to for it) the traditional party of tax cuts, especially corporate tax cuts? That would imply that voters of this riding would tend to support the CPC. Couple that with solid support for the right for many years, and an abysmal Liberal campaign and it is safe to say Ms. Whittaker does not have a chance at all. Look for Cummins winning with well over 10K votes.
12 01 05 Tsawwassen Observer
The virtual invisibility (apart from his tiresome single issue obsession with fisheries)of the Conservative incumbent will not offend Cummins' traditional voter base, the wealthy, older right wing. But with the changed demographic of this riding, and in spite of generalized public disgust with the sorry record of the Liberals, Whittaker has her chance.
This riding is stuffed with upwardly mobile income earners, many of whom run their own companies, who know how hard high corporate tax rates hit small and middle sized businesses.
11 01 06 Fabian B
This riding will definitely stay Conservative after the Liberal's recent electoral stumbles in the campaign trail. Richmond-East Delta used to have a split personality: you had the Delta vote go strongly for Cummins while the smaller Richmond East portion voted consistently for the Liberals in 1993, 1997 and 2000. Howeever, in 2004, Conservative John Cummins won the majority of the vote in the polling stations of Richmond East for the first time. Martin's sudden reversal over a formal apology for the Chinese Head Tax--in the middle of a close election when he had 18 months to do so in government--will hardly endear him to Chinese voters in Richmond East and smacks more of desperation especially since the Conservatives were the first to call for an apology. If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, then your party is in trouble. Expect another Conservative win in this hybrid riding on January 23.
06 01 06 M. Lunn
I am moving this back to the Conservative column. The recent poll numbers show the Tories rebounding to election 2004 levels, so although I expect them to drop as the IT scandal becomes less of an issue, not nearly enough to unseat John Cummins. He is quite popular as well as this area, or at least the Delta side leans to the right.
01 01 06 Ombre
1) Cummins is going to win this, but it will be closer than last time.
2) Last election the NDP did relatively well in this affluent riding, in large part because they ran a Muslim candidate in a riding with one of the largest mosques in Canada. This time many of those supports will head back to the Liberals. Good news for the Libs.(Contrary to some previous posts, the NDP don't have a hope in this riding).
3) However, the Liberals fumbled their candidate selection and turned down two other strong candidates and went with Patricia by acclamation (Have the Liberals learned nothing in B.C.!) True, her campaign team is strong and gives good advice - SHE showed up for that all candidates meeting - but, she is a new face on the federal scene and on the Delta side of the water a virtual unknown.
4) John is very popular and his strong stand on non-native fishing rights is viewed by many as courageous and correct, particularly on the Delta side of the river and in old - read non 'yuppy' Steveston. He is also very visible between elections.
5) This one will go Conservative, but it will be a closer race than last time. Especially with the Cons down in the overall polls across the province.
Cheers, the Ombre.
30 12 05 Tommie
A few facts about this riding. First of all, it has been said before but must again be stressed that John Cummins has lost a sizeable chunk of votes every election since his first election to office. Furthermore, recent electoral district geographic changes have shifted huge parts of Liberal friendly Richmond into the riding. While the South Delta part of the riding is very right-wing, a lot of moderate yuppies have been moving into the Beach Grove area of Tsawwassen and new homes in East Ladner. These people, while not left-wing enough to be NDP voters (or even left-wing at all), are scared by the Conservatives and find a comfortable home in the right side of the Liberal Party. The Liberalís candidate Patricia Whittaker has indeed hired the infamous Jim...I mean James Green as her campaign manager. While this will siphon away left-leaning votes from her to the New Democrats (who are running an energetic campaign themselves, feeding off their relative success in the provincial election in Delta South), it will give her huge organizational strength and also reach into some moderate Conservative voter base. Cummins also took all of December off while Whittaker was organizing her campaign and the NDPís William Jonsson was doing a lot of grassroots campaigning. Cummins even missed a BCTV Global all-candidates debate; only Jonsson and Whittaker showed up and both were quite presentable. This time, the Grits will pick up this changing riding.
29 12 05 Mukoma
The big winner in this election will be the New Democrats. Despite the lack of experience of their candidate, he has been working harder than all the others and got to a head start over Patricia Whittaker. At the "Calling All Candidates" program on Global, incumbent MP John Cummins was a no-show. Essentially, Cummins has been away all month long, and this will hurt him, as voters do not like detecting a feeling of invincibility on part of any candidate. The NDP will gain the most in this election, while the Liberals and Conservatives have the most to loose from poor turn-out which will likely occur in this riding.
28 12 05 M. Lunn
I am moving this back to too close to call. While I have a real tough time seeing John Cummins losing his seat, one cannot ignore that all the recent polls have consistently shown the Liberals 10 points ahead in BC, while those very same polls show the gap between the Liberals and Tories narrowing in Ontario. While I even as a Liberal have no explanation for this, one cannot ignore a series of polls. It is possible one rogue poll could say this or to have this in the summer when people aren't paying attention to politics or perhaps maybe people are lying to pollsters. Yet until we get in the New Year and it becomes clearer just exactly what is happening in BC I am going to leave this in the too close to call column
19 12 05
The Liberals have acclaimed Patricia Whittaker who has asked James Green to be her campaign manager. The stink of the Vancouver municipal election is not going to have cleared by now. Not a smart move.
14 12 05 Hatem
Last time NDP has strong candidate, which triple NDP number from 2,000 to 6,000 also there was anger from BCLiberals.
With Patricia and weak NDP ethnic vote will go to Liberal.
It will be very close.
08 12 05 love, sydney
Holiday? Cummins could disappear off the face of the map and still win this tidely. Despite his poor ranking in the Cons party, he is one of the more reliable MPs for his constituents. If the Libs could convince Beth Johnson to pick up the torch -- which they didn't -- it might be close. An easy hold for the Tories.
06 12 05 John A. Roald
I agree with Phil S. on this. Cummins going off on vacation for the entire month and many of his supporters staying at home on election day will lead to a Liberal victory. The NDP's very young candidate has a lot of ground to cover... either way they are going to have to get the support of Conservatives or Liberals. As soon as the Liberals find a candidate then the race will heat up. Liberals will hold on to their strong holds in East Richmond, but will make gains in the more affluent Tswassen.
05 12 05 Phill S
John Cummins has declared that he is on vacation in December. He is not going to campaign until January. What will the all candidates meeting be like? The result in this riding will be closer than ever.
29 11 05 M. Lunn
I had said earlier that if the Conservatives didn't drop too much I would call this for them once the writ was dropped. Since the Conservatives are only about 5 points lower than 2004, while John Cummins won by 12 points, I think this one can be called for them. At the same time I do believe they will lose seats in the GVRD, in fact Langley, Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam and Delta-Richmond East are the only ridings in the GVRD, which I think they have locked up at the moment.
04 11 05 Johannes R.
John Cummins has consistently lost popularity with every election and, with changing demographics, will loose the upcoming election. The NDP does not have a good chance of winning this, but will probably put up a fight. The Liberals on the other hand will benefit from support in Richmond and will be able to sway the more centrist voters in Delta. They will win this with a minor plurality.
16 10 05 Bear and Ape
An NDP prediction here is either foolish or wishful thinking. M Lunn makes the accurate statement about Cummins' personal popularity and other factors helping him. Plus this riding is substantially more to the right than the neighbouring ridings. It's far more likely the NDP will focus on those more winnable ridings. The Liberals could be the spoilers, however, though they are polling strong right now, historically the Liberal numbers tank just before the election in BC. We're fairly certain the Cummins will be re-elected whent he vote comes.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
There is no way the NDP will win this considering they only got 13% last time around so those predicting an NDP win should forget about winning this one. They might have a chance at winning neighbouring Newton-North Delta but not Delta-Richmond East. If John Cummins loses his seat, it will be to the liberals who have generally placed a strong second in this riding. That being said, John Cummins is one of the few Preston Manning reformers who is a strong populist left within the Conservatives so his personal popularity may very well be enough to carry him to victory even if the Conservatives lose every other riding west of Langley. He is not afraid to take a position contrary to party position as with Fish Farms and is not well-liked by Stephen Harper which is definitely an asset since Harper is not well-liked here.
17 08 05 Don Juan
John Cummins will not pull off a victory on this one based on the Gurman Grewal issue happening in neighbouring Newton North Delta, which will experience an NDP victory. I am not saying that the NDP will win here, necessarily, but as said before, it has a fighting chance if it comes up with an informed, charismatic candidate who can do the door knocking and reaching out to the business community and Christian core. If he/she can do all those things, he/she will be able to win this riding because the Liberals are loosing their grip, people are tired of them and Stephen Harper's leadership has lost popularity. Add to that the fact that Cummins has been able to accomplish nothing since being elected! It's time for a new face and that is what people will be looking for. The federal NDP has the highest level of integrity of all the mainstream parties, and if they pump in more money and energy, they can make substantial gains and perhaps win next time around. It's over for Cummins. He's old and tired.
01 06 05 TAN
Cummins is the safest Tory in Greater Vancouver, indeed, perhaps the only truly safe one. Tory 2004 numbers are shallow enough in WV-SC-StSC, PoMo-W-PoCo, Grewal-land and (most surprisingly) South Surrey, that even with a relatively modest tilt of the national numbers he could be the sole spot of blue left west of Langley on election night. But he will be left.
EWS's NDP prediction is pretty laughable... even the provincial NDP's surprise win on May 17 in North Delta (which got moved to Gurmant in the last redistribution) shouldn't be seen as evidence that there's some tremendous growth potential here. Delta is Delta, and that can't be changed. As for the "Richmond East" element of the riding, it's pretty much Delta, too. The Grit-friendliness that can be found in Richmond's ethnically-tinged suburban hell is altogether absent from the exurban Lulu Island countryside which gets folded in with Ladner and Tsawwassen in this riding.
Interesting sidenote: Cummins was the only former Alliance MP, to my knowledge, who backed Belinda Stronach's Conservative leadership bid.
16 05 05 E.W.S.
With anger about a federal election being triggered so early (when people so deeply oppose it) with the provincial election being finished, this will hurt John Cummins. How? Simply. (1) There will be a backlash against Conservatives because of their coalition with the seperatists; (2) Cummins has been MP for a long time and people want change after a given period of time (I think we have reached it); (3) As an MP, Cummins has not accomplished much apart from some work on the fisheries issue; (4) as touched upon in #3, is primarily a one issue man; (5) The Liberals are detested in Delta and may do well in Richmond but it wont be enough. If we get a hardworking, charismatic, and moderate New Democrat candidate, then the NDP can take this riding with Liberal and Green votes, or at the very least make significant gains from last time when Itrath Syed got 7000 votes (a big improvement from when they got 3000 in the previous election). With the NDP winning provincially, this could not do anything other than help the momentum of the New Democrats in Delta-Richmond East!
11 05 05 Local Guy
John gets high marks in this riding for being a maverick MP - everyone out here likes him because he sticks with his constituents, even more so than the party line. Shelley Leonhardt has already bowed out of the race, rumour has it she may even be taking out a Conservative membership in Richmond. The Liberals can't fundraise in the riding, they haven't been able to find a candidate to run against John, and quite frankly, why would they bother? Despite all the hoopla about Richmond being Liberal, John still had a solid showing in the Richmond portion of the riding. Combined with his 70-80% of the vote he picks up in Delta, John is a lock to win this riding.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
Cummins is very locally popular, he was even once arrested at a fisheries protest, being at the time, the party's fishiers spokesperson. Beyond that, the Delta area has always had a tradition of voting for right-wing parties, the PC's, Reform, Alliance, and now the CPC. I know a friend living in this riding who said he spoiled his ballot by writing "canadian alliance" across it. He's voting tory this time. I think the general sentiment here is the tories will win, and that sentiment is dead on.
03 05 05 M. Lunn
In all likelihood, John Cummins will be re-elected since he is not afraid to challenge the party when he disagrees (i.e. Fish Farming issue) and this is a conservative riding. However, with a large portion of the riding living on the Richmond side, a liberal upset is possible if there is a major backlash against triggering an early election. Once the writ is dropped this can probably be called for the Conservatives if there isn't a major backlash.
03 05 05 hatman
Delta is one of the more Conservative areas in the Lower Mainland, especially in the western lower mainland. With the NDP a distant 3rd in 2004, and the Liberals dropping the polls, I see no reason for Delta-Richmond East to not go Conservative again in 2005.

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