4:41 PM 14/01/2006

Prediction Changed
3:30 PM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Western Block
Douglas Christie
Troy DeSouza
Randall Garrison
Keith Martin
Canadian Action
David Piney
Green Party/Parti Vert
Mike Robinson

Hon. Keith Martin

2004 Result:
Keith Martin
Randall Garrison
John Koury
Jane Sterk
Jen Fisher-Bradley
Shawn W. Giles

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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13 01 06 CDE
Also another gain for the NDP on the Island. Ketih Martin is trying to run against his own party (like he did as a conservative) because he knows he is in deep do-do. Garrison did very well in 2004 and since then, the entire area when NDP provincially.
12 01 06 M.T.
The Liberal military ad gaffe certainly will hurt Martin (both the PM and the MP); since this riding is the home of a major naval base, that might be the final nail in the coffin. Predicting who will win is harder though; the Conservatives are ahead in BC polling right now, but the NDP finished well ahead of the Tories last time. My thought is that many former Reform voters followed Martin when he went Liberal, and that they might now go back home to Harper. But if a lot of Liberal voters just stay home, or if Martin does better than expected, this riding will go NDP.
05 01 06 Prognosticator
There is no doubt Kieth's personal popularity has all been spent. When driving around the riding, you see almost no Liberal lawn signs on private property. they are all stuck in the median, or along side the roads. That is a sure sign of muted support, especially for an incumbent.
DeSouza seems to be winning the sign war, but this area went solidly NDP in the recent provincial election. It'll be close between NDP/Tory, the Liberals are clearly in third
04 01 06 Fabian B
This riding will fall to the NDP. I was SHOCKED to see a Vancouver Province coverage of this riding in December 2005 where the incumbent Liberal Keith Martin openly complained about the lack of volunteers for his campaign. In contrast, the NDP's Garrison was extremely happy about the huge number of volunterrs at his office. This tells me that Keith Martin thinks he is behind Garrison and will lose. No MP complains about such things in the media unless they feel the race is lost. Given the NDP resurgence in Vancouver Island and the fact the Provincial NDP won this area in June 2005, Keith is probably right--unfortunately.
26 12 05 M. Lunn
I agree with Rick S. that Keith Martin is not 100% safe, but I disagree it will be an NDP/Conservative battle, but rather I think it will be a Liberal/NDP battle. This is a pretty left leaning area if you look at the riding's history and likely only went Reform/Alliance due to their populist appeal, the same reason the Reform Party won many other traditional NDP ridings. The Conservatives have chosen Troy de Souza who will certainly do well in Esquimalt due to his military background and this is likely one of the few ridings where the Tories will probably due better than last time around (their numbers have taken a big hit in BC despite gains in Ontario). However, one cannot ignore the Tories have taken a big hit in BC since last election and while there are early signs of possibly gaining traction in Ontario, that is not happening in BC. Keith Martin also has several followers and is reasonably popular. The fact he is someone who is not afraid to take opinions contrary to the party such as his opposition to Iraq war and support for decriminalization of marijuana while in the CA and currently his support for a parallel private health system. I suspect Keith Martin will still pull this off as we get closer to the election and it becomes clear the Liberals are going to win again, people will vote to have someone on the government side rather than opposition. I think the Liberals though will have a very tough time holding Victoria.
26 12 05 love, sydney
This is always going to be fairly close, but Martin has retained much of his support since crossing the floor.
23 12 05 JC
Martin is not going to lose, The poll numbers in BC are very good for the Liberals right now, I honestly don't think he will lose here. Besides Martin is Scandal free as he was a reformer during all that time.
23 12 05 watcher
I'm going out on a limb and marking this a Conservative win. Until recently I thought Keith Martin, being a doctor and having done some health work in Parliament, probably would've kept soft voters with him.
But... apparently SCONDVA (Standing Committee on National Defense and Veteran Affairs) held some kind of meeting in November to discuss the health problems caused by the CFB (Canadian Force Base) Gagetown defoliant spraying between 1965 and 1984 (without getting into too much useless detail, let's just say that most victims of this defoliant spraying come from military families). Keith Martin, a member of SCONDVA, seemed to have handled the meeting in such a way that... greatly frustrated people who are concerned about this issue.
Now I'm not sure how significant this incident is going to be in the election (because it doesn't seem to have attention from the mainstream...), but I do know that there are now angry military voters vowing to de-throne Keith on election day, and Conservatives are most likely to gain. Add that to the fact that Troy DeSouza used to be a captain in the Canadian Forces Reserves, there's no doubt that he'll do better than John Koury.
The only uncertainty here is my lack of understanding about this riding. I don't know how influential the military communities on this riding are, since BC had been military-free for some time. If the military community is sizable enough, Keith will be absolutely toast. But if not, he might squeak by with another few years in Ottawa if he campaigns hard or something. Right now, I'm going to tentatively hypothesize that if Ted White can lose by angering film workers in North Vancouver (and I haven't seen many of them in North Vancouver...), Keith Martin can very well lose by angering military families (havn't seen too many of those in this riding either, but still...). The NDP probably isn't going to be a factor here.
21 12 05 Rick S
As someone who actually lives in the riding, I think Keith Martin is toast and will come in a respectable 3rd with 25% ish of the vote.
This is not a liberal riding federally and is traditional either NDP/ reform/ca or Conservative.
2004 had a very weak Tory candidate run and I would suggest that the 2004 tory vote in the riding is the absolute baseline vote (pretty hard to imagine a worse candidate/campaign that Koury in 2004).
Due to personal popularity Keith managed to get a lot votes from people who would have voted conservative.
The tory campaign of DeSouza is far stronger with a far better candidate than the one in 2004.
Look to see a tight tory/NDP race. A reasonable chance that the tories can edge out the NDP here.
14 12 05 Watcher
Esquimalt Juan de Fuca is not going to re-elect Keith Martin. Both Garrison and DeSouza have much better teams on the ground and Martin is not managing to get much positive media coverage.
The Liberals will put a lot of resources behind keeping this old Reformer elected, and this will take away from their campaign elsewhere.
Martin almost lost last time and was only saved because of all the Conservatives that voted for him because they hated the CPC candidate and were afraid of the return of the NDP. This time the right will go back to their home and it will be a close race between DeSouza and Garrison.
01 12 05 AV
Keith Martin won despite presumably losing votes due to his switch, and despite the massive plunge in Liberal fortunes last time. He will carry it again.
27 11 05 Bear and Ape
Keith Martin won this riding, despite jumping ship as soon as Paul Martin became PM. All dire predictions of people being irked by this never came through. The sponsorship nonesense and everything else that has plagued the Liberals elsewhere has not effected them as much in BC. So it is unlikely that the Liberals will lose many votes. It is also unlikely that the CPC will gain many votes either, especially with the way they are polling now in BC. The spoilers could be the NDP, who had an excellent showing in 2004. The NDP is still looking good in the BC polls and Liberal support always seems to collapse in BC during the election campaign. Watch and see, but we say that if Keith could win it in 2004, he will likely win it again.
15 11 05 Pundit
This riding could be won by anyone of the three major canidates.
Before Martin won it as Reformer in 1993, it was held by Dave Barrett of the NDP. Martin was an unknown that defeated Barrett handily.
Before then, the riding together with more of Saanich.
The area has mainly elected right of centre candidates.
I would say toss up in a three way race.
23 06 05 the politico
Why is it that the incumbent of this riding is not seriously being considered for a 2nd term? In all seriousness, he is someone aside from the party he belongs to, is a decent representative for his constituents. I am not sure this riding is winnable from either a NDP or Conservative platform.
Keith Martin would have to be involved in some serious malfeasance for anything to change his public support. he is a well liked politician. I am not sure what else there is to say on this riding.
07 06 05 Mike D
Keith Martin has been strangely silent since the last election. But I understand he still has a local following. As it stands now, he probably will barely hold this seat. But I think his time is running eventually unless he speaks-up again.
22 05 05
This is yet another constituency where the Liberal Party's unpopularity could benefit the NDP. Expect the results to be close, but in favour of the New Democrats.
18 05 05 politicaljunkie
Keith hasn't lost any of his personal popularity but he will lose the votes of many who were supporting the Liberal Party as opposed to him personally.
The NDP does not yet have a nominated candidate although it is highly suspected that Randall garrison will carry their banner once again. The NDP will be tired after the recent provincial election and will have a hard time running the ground campaign as a result.
The Conservatives have nominated a 30 something lawyer who is a visible minority and has a young family - not at all scary.
This will be a tight three way race but in my opinion, people will be looking for someone other than the Liberal candidate to vote for and the Conservatives may have the ground campaign to convince voters it should be them.
08 05 05 P. Kelly
EJDF is not a traditionally conservative area. It was held by moderate Keith Martin because he was personally popular. This part of greater victoria will vote NDP and Martin will be returning to his job as a doctor...who supports 2-tier healthcare
07 05 05 punditman
This riding is traditionally conservative. They voted Reform/Alliance in 1993, 1997, 2000. I am convinced that many conservatives, against their better judgment, voted for CPC-turned-Liberal Keith Martin. This was mainly because of a personal vote rather than a political vote. While many of these people supported the Conservatives, they like Keith Martin and really disliked John Koury, the hot-tempered candidate here. Koury's anger problems scared many conservatives into casting a ballot for Martin. This time, however, the CPC will most likely nominate someone who is well-liked and is the absolute antithesis of Koury. This will draw all the conservatives back to the CPC in this riding.
04 05 05 BLJ
2004 Result: Liberal - 35.3%, NDP - 30.6%, CPC - 24.2%, Green ~9% - very similar to the result in neighbouring Victoria. This seat can go either way, Liberal or NDP, depending on the advantage of incumbency, the quality of the NDP candidate, as well as polling trends close to election time.
03 05 05 M. Lunn
With the liberal vote not declining as much in BC as elsewhere, Keith Martin may very well be the only liberal from the 250 area code. An NDP win is certainly possible since this is traditionally NDP territory. A Conservative win is unlikely since the Reform Party's win in 1993 was simply to throw the tories out, while the 97 and 2000 wins were because of Keith Martin's popularity, not popular support for the Reform/Alliance. That is why much of the Canadian Alliance vote from 2000 migrated to the liberals in 2004 since they voted for the person as opposed to the party.
03 05 05 hatman
Keith Martin's switch to the Liberals will only leave the people in this riding the thoughts of chosing another party. Many Keith Martin voters will go to the tories, and a few will go to the NDP. But the bottom line is enough will be subtracted from the Liberals here that will propel the NDP to victory.
02 05 05 Pundit
This will likely flow to the NDP as Keith Martin will flounder.
The CPC has a very good contendor in Troy Desouza - he could do an upset and take the area.

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