12:06 PM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:35 AM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Fleetwood-Port Kells
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Barry Bell
Jack Cook
Nina Grewal
Brenda Locke
Green Party/Parti Vert
Duncan McDonald

Nina Grewal

2004 Result:
Nina Grewal
Gulzar Cheema
Barry Bell
David Walters
Joseph Theriault

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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14 01 06 Sean
I live on the border of this riding, but from what I've seen, in the on-private-property sign war, Mr. Bell of the NDP is winning, with Mrs. Grewal in second and the Liberals not even on private property. However, as we all know, the number of signs one has is not necessarily reflective of how well one does.
I do think Mrs. Grewal will win, but by a much reduced margin. You will see some Conservative voters who do not like Mrs. Grewal defect to Jack Cook, IND or Mr. Bell of the NDP. You will also see the soft Liberals support (those who vote NDP provincially, but Liberals federally) move to the NDP as Ms. Locke of the Liberal Party is one of the more unpopular/unknown BC Liberal MLAs. Mr. Bell will certainly increase his vote, and he may even surpass Ms. Locke, but this will not be due to the almost non-existant NDP campaign out here (to be fair, everyone's campaign is fairly non-existant in this riding).
Despite this, I think that the momentum of the Conservatives coupled with the weak campaigning of the 2 other parites and the incumbancy factor will carry the day for Mrs. Grewal on election day.
12 01 06 TSP
Crime and government Corruption are still the biggest items of public discussion in the riding. On these issues the Federal Liberals (under both Chretien and Martin) have a proven history of not supporting the "Surrey Agenda", which was articulately presented by Chuck Cadman from the time he was FIRST elected.
The troubles of the Grewals (caused by Gurmant) pales in comparison to the feeling neglect of Surrey by the Federal Liberals and, of course, the corruption found by Justice Gommery in the Sponsorship Program. Nina Grewal should be able to eke out a victory with a 1000+ vote margin.
12 01 06 A Vancouverite
I'm doubting a Liberal win here. Why? Nina Grewal has actually been vocal for her constituents in parliament, such as her vote against SSM, which I believe the constituents wanted her to do. Plus Brenda Locke has been talking about how this riding has bad representation when in in fact she doesn't even believe crime in Surrey is a real issue!! And with the momentum of Harper's national campaign, I expect Nina to gain votes more than lose it.
09 01 06 Joey Con
Brenda Locke and Barry Bell are not running solid campaigns. Outside of a few lawn signs, they have been mostly mute. In fact the NDP held a round table announcement televised on CPAC in the riding, and it was Penny Priddy from Surrey North that moderated, not Bell. He actually didn't open his mouth.
Locke, on the other hand, has opened her mouth. She stated in a live interview that Goodale was cleared by the RCMP and that they were not investigating him. Also, she was an extremely vocal attacker of Ujjal Dosanjh during her run for MLA in 2001. Now she seems pretty chummy with him.
Nina has a record to run on, and one that isn't too bad. She is getting a bum rap because of what her husband did, which has been reported by the Globe & Mail, that she knew nothing about.
05 01 06 On The Sidelines
Nina will take this riding with a comfortable margin. Brenda's shortcomings are becoming more and more evident during the course of this campaign. As others have mentioned, the Indo-Canadian vote may well be a factor, although not the deciding factor. I heard Brenda Locke on an Indo-Canadian radio station (AM 1550) on a phone-in talk show and she said Nina is making crime an unnecessary issue during the campaign and she also said that crime isn't THAT big of a problem in Surrey and that residents of Surrey should remember that we are below the national norms in crime (where she got that from is beyond me). This statement caused a huge uproar in the Indo-Canadian community, especially after 2 senior citizens died after being beaten to death in the riding, and 100 or so indo-canadian gang members were murdered. Also, a statement like that doesn't sit too well with the traditionally conservative vote in areas like Port Kells and Fleetwood/Fraser Heights. Throw into the mix the fact that Nina's been relatively tough on crime (she lobbied the government to stop auctioning off marijuana grow-op equipment and with her age of consent motion) and you get the perfect recipe for a Conservative win.
04 01 06 ZS
Nina is history, her husband has not only destoryed his politcal career but hers as well. The Libs will win here by a slim margain.
04 01 06 Fabian B
I agree completely with Praxis. Nina Grewal may have been hurt slightly by her low profile and her husband's antics BUT it was her low profile which kept her out of the media spotlights. She is the only Indo-Canadian candidate and will win a majority of support among Indo-Canadians in Fleetwood. Also, her riding cover parts of rural Port Kells and North Cloverdale which is strongly social conservative. She had a comfortale win in 2004 and should win it again.
One critical factor which people may not have considered is that the Liberal candidate--Brenda Locke--is tarred with the failure of the provincial Liberals to fully fund expansion at Surrey Memorial Hospital. Everyone in this riding knows about this Hospital's shortcomings in the back of their minds and that Brenda represented Surrey Green Timbers--a riding which included Surrey Memorial in the heart of her riding for 4 years.
02 01 06 Praxis
I think this one is going to go to the Conservatives. While the B.C. numbers are not great for the Conservatives right now they usually bounce back near the end of the election. If the B.C. numbers do not bounce back this will be a very close race.
Now North of Hwy #1 is a very strong Conservative area with them winning a large majority of the vote. This area is pretty middle-class which is considered the core of the Conservative party. The rural area to the East is also a highly Conservative area which will probably hold because of SSM and social Conservative issues in general. It can easily be considered the Western section of the bible-belt of the Lower Mainland.
There has been much said about how the Indo-Candians will vote in this area. While Indo-Canadians do not just vote according to whether the candidate is Indo-Canadian it sure as hell doesn't hurt. In Punjabi areas the Liberals were able to just squeak by the Conservatives last election. There will be a few percentage points loss for the Liberals because Brenda Locke does not have the appeal of Gulzar Cheema. Too bad for the Liberals considering that their big vote areas (areas of Fleetwood and some of the more rural area East of the Newton border) are where she needs to have a strong showing but this is also where much of the Indo-Canadian population is located. In these areas the Conservatives are strong often placing a close second or first.
Is Brenda Locke a good candidate for this area? I would say no, contrary to some people's opinion. First, she has too controversial a past with her lobbying activity with the Pub association. This can easily be exploited by the Conservatives in the North and East. Whatever can be said of Brenda Locke, she is not close to as good a candidate as Gulzar Cheema was last election.
How much will the Grewal tapes controversy hurt Nina? Obviously it has hurt a bit, however, Gurmant deciding not to run seems to help and the press during that time was not that bad at all. In the end, we will find out how much the tape controversy hurts after this election.
30 12 05 R Grant
I think Barry Bell will come up the middle here. This was a tight three way race last time and Barry got 28% of the vote despite spending 10% of what the other two parties spent last time. Add to that the fact that the Grewals are disgraced and the Liberals are now in hot water on the national scene. This time there will be a much stronger NDP campaign in the riding and it should pay
28 12 05 Interested Voter
Those in the know understand that Brenda Locke is a strong fiscal conservative and had previously been a member of the Progressive Conservative party. She had been courted by several Conservatives, but the CPC nomination was never opened by national hq. No thinking conservative in this province wants anything to do with either of the Grewals, so there will be a large 'blue wave' of Conservatives voting simply for the best representative, that being Locke by a long shot. I'm told that Locke is running 20 points ahead of Grewal, which is not unbelievable. It's a shame, because Locke would have made an excellent cabinet member for Surrey under a conservative government.
20 12 05 Bear and Ape
A warning to those who think Mrs. Grewal will win the Indo-Candian vote just because of her ethnicity. Time and again people claim ethnicity will help a particular candidate, yet we feel that Indo-Canadians (and people of all ethnicities) are smarter than that, and will look beyond the superficial. People will base their vote on the strength of a candidate and for a party who best represents their views, not by where the candidate and/or their parents were born. We cite the 2004 election where several ridings were to go Conservative in Mississauga and Brampton because the CPC candidate was Indo-Canadian. We all know how that went...
19 12 05 Herman T
I will be spending some time campaigning in this riding (as well as in Calgary, and Regina) during this election. Nina will undoubtedly suffer fallout from her husband's fiasco (rightly or wrongly so). Being Indo-Canadian myself, I understand the politics behind the "popularity contest" that led to her nomination and running. Not sure how many of the very upset Cons will come out to help her, but it'll probably be enough to have a campaign. This time around however, she will not have the broad community support she pulled the last time around. I spent quite some time in the area this summer, and the "ear-to-the-ground" is really hearing some interesting stuff.
19 12 05 Pink Tory
Watcher makes some excellent points. According to riding demographics, Indo-Canadians make up 17% of the population of Fleetwood-Port Kells. Last time around, Nina Grewal faced stiff competition from Cheema, a provincial Liberal cabinet minister and Indo-Canadian. Cheema probably got a good 1/2 of the Indo-Canadian vote, with the rest going to the Conservatives, and a little to the NDP.
With no Indo-Canadian on the ballot from the NDP and Liberals, Nina Grewal will pick a substantial amount more than the last time around. Now obviously Indo-Canadians are not 100% block voters, and in recent years have been showing greater political sophistication as their communities mature and gain connections to many parties. However, Nina has a definite advantage, and I think we will see that election day...
17 12 05 jonforest
I'm giving this riding slightly to the Liberals. Yes, Nina won it by 6.5% in the last election. But polls show the Conservatives are down 7-8% in BC from last time. So we're starting from a tie. Nina herself is not an asset--she does poorly in public, will bomb in any all-candidates meeting, and I can't imagine her being good at the door-to-door. And, like it or not, the Grewal fiascos from last summer will lose her votes. The only question is whether it is the Liberals or the NDP who win. I'm giving the nod to the Liberals because of the riding profile.
16 12 05 watcher
let's look at the political dynamics between the actual candidates in this riding. Last time, the Liberal candidate here was Indo-Canadian. This time, it's... well... not. And neither is the current NDP candidate. However I would like to point out that I personally have nothing against Brenda Locke and I've even heard that she was respected among some federal Conservatives when she was in provincial politics for the BC Liberals so I certainly won't write her off yet. The latest Ipsos Reid poll (as of December 16) indicates that the NDP is at 25%, so they shouldn't be a factor if the vote is cast tomorrow. But overall, given the ethnic advantage, and the arguments that Nina can put forth to her voters, I would still say that this riding is leaning blue.
15 12 05 Bear and Ape
We want to caution everyone about just how conservative this riding is. Previous elections saw Reform/Canadian Alliance victories primarily on this party's grassroots nature. Prior to 93, we need to look at how much this riding has changed demographically. Moving on to the last election, we can see a three way race despite the CPC being a clear winner. We all know very well that the last year was not a good time to be a Grewal. Couple that with the crazy flux that the polls are in BC, particularly in the lower mainland, and it's clear that no one can make any clear and rational predictions for this riding until a date much closer to election day.
11 12 05 quasar
This is pretty religiously Conservative rididng, and Nina Grewal has been a decent MP, despite her husband's record, which, by the way, has nothing to do with her. Nina Grewal took this riding with a reasonable margin of victory in 2004, and I expect she will be keeping this one. Conservative hold.
08 12 05 Mark R.
The trends are against the Conservatives in BC to begin with, and will only make it harder for Mrs. Grewal to hold on. With this tide turning, does the Grewal reputation not take away further votes? I think yes - talk to the locals, they are embarrassed by their representation. This riding will elect either a Liberal or NDP MP and it will be very close, if not the closest race in the country. Surrey is indeed different, thanks to the late Chuck Cadman. Mrs. Grewal is no Chuck Cadman. Another loss here for the Conservatives no matter how much they try to salvage this one.
05 12 05 Local Guy
this riding has strong conservative roots and considering Nina's take on many traditionally conservative issues like getting tough on crime (she lobbied public works to stop the auctioning off of grow-up equipment) among other things, she could very well have struck a chord with the conservative core in the riding... Moreover people view gurmants decision as a wise one and Nina's opponent Brenda Locke has already flip-flopped on a lot of issues as provincial minister of mental health, and the fact she lost resoundingly in surrey green-timbers, I think Nina's got this one in the bag... i predict another conservative win, most probably with a larger margin
06 12 05 Pink Tory
Reponsding to "Buckets of Grewal"'s "analysis" in order:
1) I never said this riding was a "safe" Conservative seat. While 6.5% is not a wide margin, it is certainly a more comfortable margin than many seats in BC. The polls have not varied from the historical trends. Unless the Liberals have a big breakthrough in BC, I doubt they will win this riding. Liberal vote is concentrated in Vancouver and tends to disperse the further away from downtown (although Svend Robinson may indeed beat Hedy Fry). As I said, the Conservative seats more in trouble are Reynolds (West Van), Forseth (New West), Gurmants old riding (Newton-Delta), Duncan on the island, and Gouk's in the interior. If they Tories are losing 5 ridings in BC, those are the ones to look at, not Nina Grewal's.
2) Gurmant will not play into this campaign. He has already said in the newspaper he is playing "hands off" in this election because of Liberal and NDP attacks. I don't expect him to be much of an issue. If the Liberals and NDP bring him up, it will look nakedly partisan and could really backfire. The key to negative campaigning is to point out differences starkly (like the Liberal ad campaign of '04), getting too personal always tends to backfire, whether it is the Tory "Chretien" ads of '93 or the Reform french politican ads of '97. If the Liberals and NDP go that route, it will look desperate and the public will see through it.
3) If you actually think that in today's age that a wife must come to her husband's defense, like some sort of Victorian age female sycophant, you are more a redneck than a lot of oldschool Reformers ... i.e. If any NDP or Liberal candidate attempts to spin things along the lines you suggest--"If Nina can't stand-up and defend her own husband, how she will stand-up for you?"--then I suggest you will lose the women's vote. And you will rightly deserve to do so from anyone that actually believes in gender equality. Frankly such a comment is disgusting, regardless of where you stand on the Grewal controversy.
4) Just to restate what I said: this riding is historically Conservative, Nina won by a margin of 6.5% (sure its not 10-15%, but its not a squeeker either), and finally, she has the benefit of incumbancy.
5) Oh and to comment on the Brenda Locke posting, any person with any political communications background will be able to rip her apart for her negatives in about two seconds... Anyone suggesting otherwise is dreaming in partisan technicolor ... If the Liberals were actually serious about this seat, they would have found someone better than Brenda Locke ... Indeed, what Brenda Locke's nomination tells me is that the Liberals are far far from confident that they will win this riding, or even willing to seriously contest it ...
04 12 05 bucketsofgrewal.blogspot.com
I think Pink Tory is allowing his partisan desires interfere with his judgement. Responding in order to his points. 1. The results last time show pretty clearly that this is not a safe conservative riding: these were (roughly) 36% to 30% to 28%. Given the softening of Conservative support since last time, this looks less like a safe conservative riding than a three-way. 2. Nina's margin of victory last time of 6% is not very much. 3. It is still unclear how big a role Gurmant's quitting will play in voters' decisions. Will they decide that Gurmant is gone and therefore forgotten? Or will they fear that Nina is simply a front through which Grewal stays involved in politics? 4. Whatever the weaknesses of Nina's opponents, she herself is hardly a dynamic debater/campaigner/interviewee. If things get nasty (and surely there will) there's a lot of the Grewal fiascos that can be used against her. Is there any image from last spring's circus more memorable than Nina running away from reporters? (Imagine the NDP flier now: "If Nina can't stand-up and defend her own husband, how she will stand-up for you?")
I don't know whether this seat will be taken by the Liberals or the NDP. But Nina will not win.
04 12 05 JH
Contrary to Pink Tory's opinion Brenda Locke is a great candidate for the Federal Liberals. She was respected by all groups as one of the hardest working MLA's for her constituents and delivered SFU to Surrey, RCMP E- Division to Green Timbers, expansion to Surrey Memorial, treatment facilities to Surrey, tripled HIV AIDS funding in Surrey, donated hundreds of books to elementary schools in Surrey just to name a few.
What issues did she flip flop on? And Brenda worked with Chuck Cadman on the Street Racing bill and introduced it in the BC legislature to give Chuck support to take it to Ottawa - they worked on a number of other things as well eg bullying in schools.
29 11 05 Pink Tory
Why Nina Grewal will probably win this riding:
1) This is the most conservative leaning Surrey riding along with South Surrey White Rock. It goes provincial liberal and the NDP provincially do not get elected. The east portion of the riding is solidly Conservative (look at the poll by poll results) and mimics portions of the Fraser Valley bible belt (Langley, Abby, and Chilliwack), and does care about SSM despite protestations to the contrary. The western portion of the riding splits three ways and is more urban.
2) Nina Grewal won by over 2500 votes and 6.5%, which is a lot in a small riding. She beat the Liberal candidate by almost 6.5% and the NDP candidate by almost 8%. These are not small margins. If vote splitting happens, it is more likely to happen on the left, with the Green Party now having campaign funds, due to election financing laws, and pouring a lot of money into BC. Tory voters will be loyal and will go out to vote. With the Greens, NDP, and Liberals splitting the vote, Nina Grewal could get even more votes this time.
3) Gurmant Grewal has declared he's not running. This will for sure help out Nina who will not have to deal with negative spill over effect of her husband.
4) The Liberal candidate Brenda Locke is an awful candidate. Do a google search and you will see for yourself. She has flip flopped on major issues, at one point spoke out against Chuck Cadman on lowering blood alcohol limits, and has connections to Paul Martin lobbyists. Its a negative campaigners dream come true. It isn't a surprise that she lost the provincial election.
5) A note on the polls. Traditionally BC has always fared bad for the Conservatives inbetween elections and at the beginning. Usually however, through the course of the campaign, the Tories (Reform before) bounce back 4-5 %. While we cannot be certain of historical trends, this is confirmed by the recent IPSOS poll which has the Tories and Liberals tied nation wide with the Tories making ground up in BC.
6) All in all, because of local factors, historical trends, and recent polls, I would say Nina Grewal is pretty safe. The same however cannot be said of Conservative seats on Vancouver Island, Kamloops, Newton-North Delta, Vancouver, and New Westminster ridings. Those will be a challenge. All in all, the Conservatives will probably lose 3-5 seats in BC.
29 11 05 M. Lunn
It looks like a third former BC Liberal MLA, Brenda Locke has thrown her hat into the ring along with Joyce Murray in New Westminster-Coquitlam and Sheila Orr in Saanich-Gulf Islands. The BC Liberals are often accused of being right wing yet if three of their MLAs are choosing to run under the Liberals as opposed to the Tories, it makes you wonder just how right wing the Tories are. That being said, I think Nina Grewal is in for tough battle due to the liability of her husband. Gurmant Grewal obviously knew he was toast, which is why he isn't running again. This riding is more favourable to the Conservatives than Newton-North Delta so that is why I think she is staying on as there is still a possiblity of her winning, whereas there wasn't for Gurmant Grewal.
15 11 05 Bear and Ape
You know it baffles us as to how often people make reference to SSM as being an election issue in urban centers. We both were born, raised and currently live in urban Canada. We have friends, family and colleagues who either currently live or are from urban centers in most provinces in this country. We are in touch with these people and travel quite regularly meeting up with these people. These friends and aquaintences are of diverse religions, ethnicity and political views. Having said all that, with the exception of the VERY religious, no urban Canadian we know has ever implied that SSM was a major issue. Some have said they were not happy with it, but it is not a big enough issue to sway their vote. Fleetwood-Port kells is not one of the lower mainland's bible belt ridings. It is a suburban Vancouver riding where the CPC is becomign more and more distasteful. This riding is still very much up for grabs for all three main parties, but to claim it will go CPC based on anger from SSM is pure Conservative wishful thinking.
14 11 05 Marcus
Nina Grewal, despite her husband's reputation (which has absolutely nothing to do with Nina Grewal's popularity), will get re-elected. Why? This riding is quite quite Conservative with many constituent angry over SSM. As well, it is likely that the NDP candidate will slobber up the votes leaked from the Liberal candidate, giving Nina Grewal a cruise victory.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
Unlike Newton-North Delta, which includes the more densely populated areas of Surrey, this is generally a conservative area as the provincial liberals who are right leaning did well in this area as opposed to Newton-North Delta and Surrey North where they got clobbered. However, Nina Grewal's guilt by association will likely cost her, her seat even if she had nothing to do with the Gurmant Grewal tapes. I would give the liberals the best chance of taking this riding, but an NDP win is possible since unlike provincially, one can win federally with as little as 1/3 of the vote, although I would say there is a better chance of the Conservatives holding this one than the NDP taking it. If the Conservatives are serious about holding this riding, they would ask Nina Grewal and Gurmant Grewal to not run again, so even though they would still lose Newton-North Delta, they might be able to hold Fleetwood-Port Kells. Despite the Reform/Alliance's strong past in Surrey, South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale is the only Surrey riding I think the Conservatives have a good chance at holding, and even that is not a guarantee.
09 07 05 RP.
Again, like the other Grewal, this one could go red or orange, but definitely not blue. Things are not going well for the Cons in BC anyway, and no matter how unfair it might be, Ms. Grewal will be negatively affected by her husband's negative publicity. A perfect storm, if you will, to prevent any Grewal from getting in again next time.
11 06 05 Jay
If Nina ran again, she would win by perhaps 2%. Her husband has damaged her reputation too, but afterall, it wasn't her fault, it was her husband's fault, so she will squeak this one through. If the CPC chooses to play a new, female candidate, depending on who it is, she might win by 4-5%.
27 05 05 JC
Nina will be joining her husband at home, because that is where both of them are going to be after the next election. Her husbands outburst have hurt them both and she will be accompanying him out the door.
04 05 05 BLJ
Fraser Heights on the north side of Hwy 1 leans to the centre-right while the rest of the riding is a mix, which also contains a large Indo-Canadian community. The 2004 results: CPC - 35.8%, Liberal - 29.5%, NDP - 28% nearly mirrored the overall federal result in B.C. The newly minted MP now also has incumbancy status - likely CPC hold.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
This will probably stay Conservative provided the liberals and the NDP equally split the non-Conservative vote. The Conservatives won by a reasonably comfortable margin although they only got 35% of the popular vote so if either the liberals or the NDP can find a strong enough candidate who can take support from the other, an upset is possible. Even though the Conservatives may increase their vote slightly, I doubt they will break the 40% mark this time around.
03 05 05 hatman
This area went to the Tories last time by enough of a margin that there is no doubt that they will keep it. What will change this time, is the NDP will finish 2nd, and will make it close. It has been a long time since this riding voted for a non-right wing party

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