5:04 PM 12/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:02 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Jim Abbott
Jhim Burwell
Brent Bush
Canadian Action
Thomas Fredrick Sima
Green Party/Parti Vert
Clements Verhoeven

Jim Abbott

2004 Result:
Jim Abbott
Brent Bush
Ross Priest
Carmen Gustafson

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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11 01 06 J.Mc.
I agree the tories will keep this one. The Stan Graham/Sid Parker era of N.D.P.-Tory competition ended when Jim Abbott beat out Sid Parker in '93, and was solidified when he kept the riding in subsequent elections. The N.D.P. might have a chance if (a) Abbott retires, (b) the N.D.P. picks a strong candidate, (c) the unions are effective in their backing of said candidate, and (d) economic issues overtake social issues once again. Personally, I think it was Reform's strong stance against gun control which won the riding for Abbott in the first place, and his popularity is what has kept him in, and what will allow him to keep his job as M.P. for Kootenay-Columbia as long as he wants it.
26 12 05 love, sydney
Not predicting an NDP return, but this will be tight. Too bad Priest wasn't taking another stab at this, but in the end most likely a Tory win. My sister resides here and says her church has been ratcheting up the interest and 'importance' of this vote, signalling their need to put the Conservatives in office and SSM out the door. We don't agree on everything, but I will agree with her that its a likely conservative safe seat, for now.
08 05 05 Nick Boragina
I agree with Miles and Hatman, this riding will go Conservative despite former NDP history. There is a good reason for this that many people forget, elections in the 1980s were about economics, who could cut taxes or raise spending. Elections today are about social issues, who will ban gay marriage or allow abortion. Socially this riding will vote CPC. Perhaps economically it would lean to the NDP, but those are not the issues anymore. Both the NDP and CPC are generally supportive of liberal budgets.
03 05 05 hatman
This riding voted for the NDP in 1988, but only did it just barely. The tories will win again here, and will do it substantially with the NDP coming in 2nd place. Conservatives will get 20,000, NDP 11,000, Liberals 6,000.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
Although traditionally a swing riding up until 1993 and still a swing riding(s) provincially, this is solid conservative territory federally. Jim Abbott is well liked amongst his constituents so he will not only get all those who vote BC Liberal in the next provincial election, but even some who vote NDP provincially will likely support Jim Abbott. In fact this is probably one of the few ridings where the Conservatives will beat the provincial liberals (who are right wing, but not as far right as the Conservatives).

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