Update:
2:22 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:02 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project
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Langley
Federal Election - 2006



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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Liberal/libéral
Bill Brooks
NDP/NPD
Angel Claypool
Green Party/Parti Vert
Patrick Meyer
Canadian Action
Vicki Lee Sloan
Conservatives/Conservateurs
Mark Warawa

Incumbent:
Mark Warawa

2004 Result:
Mark Warawa
24390
Kim Richter
12649
Dean Morrison
8568
Patrick Meyer
3108
IND
Mel Kositsky
2422

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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16 01 06
Easy Conservative win. This riding has Langley and the township and fort langley and i believe if im not mistaken Aldergrove which are all traditional family oriented ridings at the same time however look for the NDP to gain some ground at the expense of the liberals
21 12 05 Tom W.
The last, most western safe seat for the CPC in the Lower Mainland (and on Van Island, too????). Anything to the west of this seat is vulnerable now for the CPC to lose starting at Fleetwood-Port Kells and South Surrey/White Rock. It is amazing to see how much the CPC/Reform/Alliance support in B.C. has eroded since the days of Preston Manning - each election this support gets eaten away and this time - this is hard to believe - the polls appear to be pointing to a rout of the CPC by the Liberals and NDP in B.C. (the December 19 poll from Pollara shows the CPC up slightly in Canada but just getting trounced in British Columbia) Privately, I'm hearing lots of concern CPC members at how badly things are going in B.C.
30 11 05 Glen Beauchamp
The concervative incumbant won the last election with 47% of the popular vote. The liberal only 25% and NDP 16.75%. I see liberal support dropping below 25% with perhaps NDP and conservatives increasing their percentages.
28 11 05 Ryan
Incumbent MP Mark Warawa won with approximately 48% of the vote in 2004, and this riding has been traditionally PC/Reform/Alliance/Conservative. Warawa will have no problem holding onto his seat.
20 06 05 Bear and Ape
Koby, if you think that comment is over the top for people in the Bible-belt, then you really don't understand the religious-right. Things like what you quoted resonate with the faithful and will not hurt Warawa. Besides, who else would they vote for, the Liberals who are perceived as crooks and morally corrupt (heck they're the ones tabling SSM), or would they vote for the NDP (*snicker*)? C'mon let's be a little less partisan and more realistic.
12 05 05 Koby
Mark Warawa knows where his people in his riding stand on SSM and he is very much aware that Langley is part of the Bible belt. However, the following is over the top even for Langley. “Marriage vows are a bond with God. Marriage is more than just two couples uniting. God is part of it, and joining the union according to His will. God is present and part of the marriage. Marriage is a religious institution. That is what I am standing here to protect. I will be voting against Bill C-38.” Warawa will win, but his numbers will be down.
09 05 05 hatman
Langley will go Conservative for sure. It is at the western edge of the Fraser Valley bible belt, and it is therefore a very socially Conservative region. The conservatives also won here in 2004 by around 12,000 votes. This will likely increase in 2005, unless the NDP is able to capitalise on lost Liberal votes, but either way, this riding will be painted blue on election night.
08 05 05 Nick Boragina
Miles is dead on with his assessment here, this will be closer then other "bible belt" ridings, but it should still go Conservative. Warawa is seen in the house more often then some other MP's, he might not be moderate, but he at least acts as though he cares, and he's not the scary boogieman that people like White can come across as. The liberals would need to double their vote to win here with and Gomery, I just dont see that happening.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
This is the beginning of the bible belt, so Mark Warawa should have no trouble being re-elected, although not with same margins as with the Abbotsford candidate. This riding will go for the most right wing party, so liberal provincially (both Rich Coleman and Mary Polak are likely federal Conservatives) and Conservative federally.



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