10:56 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
4:07 PM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Barbara Biley
Canadian Action
Jen Fisher-Bradley
James Lunney
R.L. Dusty Miller
Jim Stewart
Manjeet Uppal
Christian Heritage
Frank Wagner
Green Party/Parti Vert
David Wright

James Lunney

2004 Result:
James D Lunney
Scott Fraser
Hira Chopra
David Wright
Michael Mann
Diana E. Lifton
Barbara Biley

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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19 01 06 Victor A.
I'm still a bit torn about this one. Despite BC Liberals winning in this area I had thought that the NDP would pick it up. I still think it has a chance to do just that, but Conservatives are up in polls in BC therefore I think they'll be able to hang onto this one by a thin margin.
12 01 06 Fabian B
I spoke to my visiting Uncle today who lives in North Nanaimo--the part of Nanaimo that voted for the BC Liberals. He said emphatically that the North Nanaimo and Parksville area will swing this riding for Conservative James Lunney. And my Uncle voted for the Provincial NDP in June 2004! I can't disagree with his view. North Nanaimo and Parksville are fairly prosperous areas and voted decisively for the BC Liberals in the June 2004 Provincial Elections even in the face of a strong NDP surge on Vancouver Island. I would say this is the second safest Conservative seat on the Island after Saanich-Gulf Islands.
28 12 05 love, sydney
I mixed up my incumbents, but stand by my prediction. The NDP will pick up a lot of the protest vote against both Martin and Harper, with health care and job creation playing a heavy role in the change. Lunney won't have much of an incumbent factor due to the short minority parliament, while the NDP, which has a solid base to build on here, will benefit from the conversion of many Grit supporters. However, I would have put this in the TCTC or Liberal category had the Grits been able to convince Haggard to run here - his family lives here - and taking advantage of a decent bounce on the local economy. Martin's 'hard-line stance against the US' has played well in the forestry sector, while there are some who feel that Harper has the look of 'Bush's hand puppet.' However, without a serious Grit candidate, the margin between 1st and 2nd will be no more than 2500 votes.
28 12 05 love, sydney
Crowder will keep this seat, but not by too comfortable a margin. The right candidate -- if Haggard had been convinced to run here, where he once lived -- then the Grits could have made an impressive case for scooping up this mixed Hub City burb/mill town riding.
19 12 05 BLJ
I'll keep my CPC prediction for this riding for previous reasons written below as well as the incumbency factor and apparently a weaker NDP candidate this time around. Latest Ipsos-Reid poll results for Vancouver Island - NDP 31%, CPC 29%, Liberal 26% with the CPC vote probably lowest again in the Victoria region.
15 12 05 Bear and Ape
Yes Mark, the CPC did have their most comfortable margin of victory on the island in this riding: 4000 vote margin against a disproportionate 3 way split, compaired to a 4000 vote margin against a closer 4 way split (Saanich Gulf Islands), compaired to a 400 vote margin (Vancouver Island North). It's not as comfortable as they'd like it to be, but relatively speaking it was their best on the island. This has not been NDP territory for about 15 years and demographics have changed alot, and not in the NDP's favour. Will there be a close 3 way race in BC? Yes. Will NDP support be strong on the island? Yes. But these things were true to the race in 2004 and the CPC was still able to pull off "their most comfortable marging of victory on the island" in this riding. Until polls closer to election day say otherwise, we still predict a CPC vistory.
13 12 05 Mark R.
The CPC "had their most comfortable margin of victory on the Island"??? They won narrowly, and with all due respect, the margin is hardly comfortable given the polling numbers. I don't see how under the current party trends that the Conservatives can pull off a victory here. This is traditional NDP territory and although the migration to this area is indeed more conservative in nature, we are talking about an election held only a year and a half ago and the changes in population in this timeframe won't significantly alter the '06 result. I suspect that there will be close 3-way races in BC in '06 and the NDP will benefit, especially on Vancouver Island.
27 11 05 Karl
Alright....so last election we had 6 centre-left parties nominate candidates and one centre-right party. Its pretty clear to me folks that will all the socialists running the left-wing vote ends up getting split, therefore, paving the way for a conservative victory. The liberals, the ndp and the greens all run off of each other and therefor have no chance at winning.....one of those parties would need a STAR (all capitals) candidate to unseat Lunney. Conservative seat for sure.
27 11 05 Bear and Ape
The only thing we ever hear of this riding, is TV commericals for trendy retirement communities. Needless to say we are not experts on Nanaimo, but what we gather from our anecdotal evidence, and the riding profile, is that the populace is "older" a little wealthier and probably a bit more conservative. The CPC got their most comfortable victory on Vancouver Island in this riding (vote splitting in Saanich was far more dramatic than here) and will likely eke out a victory again. Question is how much has the CPC lost here and how strong has the NDP risen. Demographics appear to be against the NDP here.
12 06 05 Jay
Yes, provincially, Victoria Island is NDP territory. Federally, it is a mix of all parties. The Conservative incumbent won here with a comfortable 4000 votes above the NDP candidate. I just don't see a potential NDP win here.
07 06 05 Mike D
There is a strong NDP history here with the many unionized forestry workers. But the NDP also tries to appeal to the Green vote which is hurts them here. Add to that, the influx of wealthy Alberta and Ontario retirees, and this riding continues to trend Conservative. Only with a very exceptional candidate, will the NDP unseat Lunney.
09 05 05 hatman
This riding will be even closer than in 2004, but unlike 2004, an NDP prediction here will likely be accurate. Vancouver Island is traditional NDP territority, and vote splitting on the left put this in the Tory column. Voters will not make the same mistake twice, and enough Liberal votes will be shifted to the NDP to make this riding orange. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the tories managed to keep this just barely.
04 05 05 BLJ
North Nanaimo, Lantzville, Nanoose Bay, Parksville, and Qualicum Beach represents one of the largest contiguous belts of centre-right support on the island. This area also represents the majority of polls within the riding. Port Alberni and Tofino/Ucluelet on the west coast are centre-left in their voting tendencies. This seat will remain in CPC hands with the NDP keeping a respectable 2nd place finish.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
Historically this has been an NDP stronghold, but the large retirement community that has moved to Parksville and Qualicum Beach has made this more favourable for the Conservatives. Parksville-Qualicum was one of only three Vancouver Island ridings to go for the right-leaning BC Liberals in 1996 and Nanaimo-Parksville is one of the few ridings on the Island the provincial liberals will likely hold onto come May 17th. This means that the area is more conservative than it was 20 years ago. Nevertheless, the NDP is still strong in Port Alberni and Tofino so an NDP upset is possible, but not highly probable. James Lunney is not the strongest MP and Vancouver Island is not a hardcore conservative area like the Fraser Valley, Okanagan Valley, or Peace River Country.

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