2:22 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
3:29 PM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Newton-North Delta
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Green Party/Parti Vert
Sunny Athwal
Nancy Clegg
Harjit Daudharia
Sukh Dhaliwal
Phil Eidsvik
Rob Girn
Mike Saifie

Gurmant Grewal

2004 Result:
Gurmant Grewal
Sukh Dhaliwal
Nancy Clegg
John Hague
Nazir Rizvi

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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17 01 06 Fabian B
I'm going to change my prediction for my riding from Liberal to TCTC. It could go either Liberal, NDP or Conservative, I now think. The NDP has targeted this riding with Punjabi radio ads from popular NDP MLA's like Harry Bains, Jagrup Brar and Harry Lali which may sway some East Indian voters to switch to the NDP. The faltering Liberal campaign may also drive a significant portion of Sukh Dhaliwal's East Indian supporters to reconsider voting for the Conservatives--like many did in 2004. Also, I saw a "Battleground BC" report on Monday's afternoons issue of Don Newman's CBC show. A Vancouver Sun spokesman there said that the Conservative candidate--Phil Eidswick--is picking up support in this riding and thinks it may go Conservative. Right now, the picture is really confusing. Maybe all those residenst with Sukh Dhaliwal signs on their lawns will switch their vote at the Ballot Box to have a Government MP or an effective opposition NDP MP rather than vote for a Liberal MP with Martin's declining electoral fortunes.
12 01 06 A Vancouverite
Phil Eidsvik will not win this. He has not been too visible riding, and is not very charismatic. Dhaliwal will take this in a 1000 vote lead. He is running a strong campaign. Also, the Grewal incident will left a sour taste in the mouth of the constituents here.
10 01 06 Amused
I'm starting to think that no one's a front runner in this area. Sukh's pro-development priorities probably place him in the same standing as Doug McCallum was in before the municipal elections, to the none Indian voters. If he is'nt well thought of in the EI community, he's toast.
The Conservative guy is'nt doing a very good job of making his name known. Other than his position on fish cloning, he's had nothing to say.
I just got a flyer from the NDP. Apparently, their candidate has been a leader on key issues for ordinary people in Surrey. How nice. That's not where I live. The fact that she's a member of the Delta Heritage Advisory Commission does'nt impress me. All that tells me is that she may know the Ladner area. Again, that's not where I live.
09 01 06 Fabian B
I live in this riding and when I drive around the roads, I see many many Liberals signs on the lawns of East Indian homes and a few NDP signs. While I am personally a Conservative, I must face the facts--the Conservatives and NDP have little chance here. The Vancouver Province covered this Riding in last week and Sukh Dhaliwal happily noted that Conservative Phil Eidswick actually lives in Burnaby, rather than Surrey. That won't help Phil's campaign much--although it was really Gurmant Grewal's fault since Grewal only quit his candidacy at the last minute and left the Conservatives scrambling to find a new candidate. Choosing recently defeated Surrey Mayor Doug MacCallum wouldn't have given the Conservative campaign a good image here. As for the NDP's Nancy Clegg, she is a decent candidate and a good lecturer from Kwantlen College. She is also actively taking Punjabi language classes.
But, this time, unlike 2004, it looks like the Sikh community is united behind Dhaliwal rather than split between the NDP, Liberals anhd Conservatives. And unlike some complacent Canadians, they will always vote on Election day since they come from the most largest democracy in the world--India. The only way that Clegg or Eidswick could win here is if the Liberals vote suddenly collapses in Surrey. If not, I think the outcome here won't even be close.
08 01 06 love, sydney
I expect this to be a slim win and one that will hinge on the last weeks of the campaign. Although Dhaliwal can expect a majority of the EI community's votes, he needs the majority of Grit supporters from last election who now want change to not coalesce behind one candidate. I agree that if Dhaliwal doesn't win this, it'll be NDP, tho Conservs will be right at their heels, much like the Coq-New West riding. Keep this TCTC until Jan. 23rd...
07 01 06 Lawrie
With the Conservatives rising in the Polls and momentum growing as well, it appears this riding is in good shape to be retained by the Conservatives. It has been claimed that Grewal's rep will stick to Phil and this is not the case in fact long time supporters of John Cummins who stayed home in 04 are back backing the Conservatives in full force as well as Phil picking up new support from traditional NDP areas. With regards to an easy win for Sukh, the riding is not 40-50% Indo Canadian and Sukh does not have the best reputation in the community so an easy win for Sukh is out of question, this will be a close race but I think it's more NDP and Conservatives that will be fighting this one out
07 01 06 rob g
If sukh was counting on Indo Canadian voters to vote "en masse" for him, how do you explain radio india's interview with Jack Layton and Nancy Clegg? They basically endorsed her over sukh.
There is very few liberal signs in the delta area where I suspect this area will be a three way race. Most likely, this race is between the NDP and Liberals.
04 01 06 Fabian B
Sukh Dhaliwal should win this riding where I live. It is 40-50% Indo-Canadian and most of this community will vote enmass for the only Sikh candidate here now that Grewal is gone from the race. Sukh almost won it in 2004 anyway but this time he should take it hands down. I see many of Grewal's Indo-Canadian supporters in 2004 aren't posting CPC signs on their lawns for Eidswick. They're either sitting out the election or will vote for Dhaliwal. Only the NDP's Nancy Clegg may give Dhaliwal a run for his money but Dhaliwal should come out on top in the end given his base of support.
I see many Liberal signs on private property, a few NDP signs and only 1 Conservative sign so far. It doesn't look good for either Eidswick or Clegg at present.
03 01 06 Uninvolved
If Nancy Clegg has been attending community events for the last two years, it must be in Surrey. I've heard that she shows up at NDP events, in North Delta, but why preach to the converted. If her support is as washed out as her lawn signs (not treated well by the UV rays), she doesn't stand a chance. But then, in the last federal election, at least she had signs up on private property. This doesn't seem to be happening this time. The last provincial election, North Delta was flooded with NDP signs, with a couple on my street. This time the only signs here are for the Liberals, and I'm suprised at the number. Rumour has it that Nancy has alienated her own people. That could be why none of my NDP member/supporter friends are willing to take a sign this time. Grewal has probably doomed the Cons and Phil is a one trick pony. I think this riding will go Liberal.
27 12 05 jonforest
I'm guessing that this will go to Dhaliwal. The Indian vote is very important in this riding, about 40%, if I recall correctly. Last time, Dhaliwal got Liberal voters and some of the Indian vote, while Grewal got Conservatives and most of the Indian vote. Now that Grewal is gone, more of those Indian votes will find their way to Dhaliwal than elsewhere. Combine this with the Conservative vote being down generally in the lower mainland and the Liberal vote being up and the result should be Dhaliwal by a reasonable margin.
24 12 05 Matt
Watcher, you're kidding yourself if you think that an endorsement by John Cummins is enough for a Conservative candidate to make up the 8 or 10 points that the Cons have lost in relation to the other 2 parties since the last election. The Cons carried this riding by next to nothing in 2004, when they won the BC vote 36-29-27 - and that was with a sitting opposition MP backed by a substantial part of the Indo-Canadian population. In this election, they've consistently been polling equal to or below the Libs and NDP, and Eidsvik has little or no name recognition in the riding (in fact, he actually lives in Burnaby). The Cons are not in contention in this riding.
20 12 05 jb
No way. Nancy Clegg can probably grab a lot of the "populist" vote here, that Dhaliwal simply can't. Dhaliwal is a political hack with weak community credentials, while Clegg has been attending community events non-stop for the last two years. Narrow NDP win, with Eidsvik coming in second.
18 12 05 watcher
Our Humble Organ from the Public Eye reported that Phil Eidsvik, the Conservative "fish guy", as affectionately and concisely described by a previous commentator, attended an NDP fundraiser. He explained that he has friends in NDP circles and is closer to the NDP federally than to Liberal, and really, he's not that gung-ho partisan. To make things even more weird, he was actually INVITED BY THE NDP to the fundraiser.
The Vancouver Sun, meanwhile, reports that Eidsvik has the support of John Cummins, the highly respected MP for Delta-Richmond East who is already Phil's long-time friend way before this election was called. Practical pundits from Tory circles will tell you that endorsements from two guys who outlived their parliamentary usefulness don't really match up with an endorsement from a guy that's still well-respected in Parliament and by his constituents.
Eidsvik will no doubt lose some Indo-Canadian vote that Grewal used to be able to procure, but he has an even more lucrative gold mine of votes: the 12,000 or so votes from NDP candidate Nancy Clegg. While it's true that many people people who used to vote Reform/Alliance for its populist appeal have turned to the NDP in 2004, I'm willing to believe that they will reutrn to the Conservative Party if their candidate is Phil Eidsvik.
15 12 05 James
I feel that the Liberals are picking up some momentum right now vs. the NDP in this riding and in B.C. generally. The scolding of Martin by the U.S. procurator is helping the Liberals. Standing up for the lumber industry is good B.C. politics and sells well in working class ridings such as Newton/North Delta where there are many workers connected to the lumber industry in the nearby mills and ports.
09 12 05 Matt
The NDP will take this one over the Liberals in a close battle. The Conservatives will finish a respectable but distant third. The Cons barely carried the riding in 2004, when they held a substantial lead in the popular vote in BC. Now, they're basically tied with the Libs and NDP. In 2004, a lot of soft NDP supporters voted Liberal strategically, not realizing that NDP candidates had such a good chance of winning in so many BC ridings. In this riding in particular, Nancy Clegg, the NDP candidate, surprised a lot of people with how well she did, finishing just 3% behind Grewal. People in the riding now realize that they have a realistic chance of electing an NDP MP. As a result, we'll see a tight race between the Liberals and NDP that comes right down to the wire.
06 12 05 ChrisB
I don't necessarily think that the fact that the Liberals are running the only Sikh candidate means that they have this race in the bag - one need only look at the recent municipal elections to see that the "ethnic" vote is fragmenting and is not bloc voting so much any more. This will be a tight race between the NDP and the Liberals I think. The Conservatives lost a chance to hold the riding with the well known McCallum, and I find that very funny. He is probably correct that the riding association wanted a more "reform" Conservative.
In any event, provincially this riding goes either way, so I think it will be up to the candidates to get out there and sell themselves.
06 12 05 My two cents
I think this riding could have been predicted to go Liberal after the Grewal Affair, but the Conservative nomination process has likely sealed the deal. Doug McCallum has openly criticized the riding association and its president for obstructing his nomination. He claims he was too moderate for their taste. This comes after John Reynolds and Gurmant Grewal both supported his nomination - now, the Conservatives have some no-name candidate instead. Conservatives should be praying that this doesn't come back to bite them in the ass like last election's Chuck Cadman nomination.
06 12 05 VD
I'm no fan of the liberals, but the conservatives keep shooting themselves in the foot. With a guy who's biggest claim to fame is fighting native fisheries (yeah that shows a moderate party) whose not from the riding, I think the tories lost the seat just there. Even McCallum, with his flaws and baggage, would have been a higher profile candidate with a better chance at winning.
05 12 05 Charles
I think the Liberals will win now that McCallum was shut out of the Conservative nomination. Who is the conservative candidate anyways? No one seems to know this guy. The NDP has a good chance here as well as many of the residents are upset with the provincial liberals and voted NDP provincially.
05 12 05 Rob G
Hey this fish guy doesn't even live in the riding, what were these guys thinking? Dhaliwal 42% then NDP, Tories third.
12 12 05 JC
This race is over,
When someone like uses this kind of quote.
“The government responds much better to violence and confrontation than to political process and use of the courts.'' (Phil Eidsvik, [Conservative candidate in Newton-North Delta], Vancouver Sun, December 8, 2005)
Mr. Eidsvik has no chance after those comments. Sukh Dhaliwal will win this seat because Mr. Eidsvik has now advocated Violence against Government officials, clearly an extreme position.
04 12 05 Sanjay
Phil Eidsvic has been acclaimed here. They are going to lose the Surrey Indo vote to Dhaliwal and split Delta 3 ways, Looks like the Liberals will take it.
04 12 05 Sanjay
The fish guy was nominated today for the conservatives, no appeal to indo voters, Liberals have this one in the bag.
02 12 05 Rick S
It looks like ex-mayor Doug McCallum is going to run for the Tories in Gurmants' seat.
It is a really good get from the Conservatives, (on short notice) since I think most people thought that Doug McCallum was a fed Liberal.
I think in a tight race Doug might make the difference and keep this seat Tory Blue
02 12 05 punditman
Apparently, former Surrey mayor Doug McCallum has said he is seeking the Conservative nomination. No word on whether he has been nominated yet, but still, the fact he's not Grewal will siphon a lot of votes back to the Conservatives. Still, however, too close to call.
02 12 05 M. Lunn
I've heard rumours that Doug McCallum will likely be the next Conservative candidate, which would be interesting considering he endorsed the Liberal candidate Sukh Dhaliwal last time around. He just got defeated as mayor of Surrey, which cannot be good for the Tories, on the other hand Newton was the one part of Surrey where he won most of the polls since he is really popular amongst the Indo-Canadian community. At this point I still think the Liberals have the best chance, followed by the NDP, and then the Tories, although any of the three could take this now that Gurmant Grewal is gone.
01 12 05 love, sydney
Running a defeated mayor so quickly after his loss sounds like a recipe for disaster, but I'm still scratching my head over this match up. McCallum is not an ideal candidate, but he did poll well in the Surrey Newton area -- but Dhaliwal, a personal friend of McCallum, also has some visibility in this riding and nearly knocked off Grewal, pre-tape-gate. That the campaign is more marathon than sprint makes it too early to say, but this riding will likely follow what trend comes out after the TV debates. But pressed for an answer, I'd say Dhaliwal wins by 500 votes.
30 11 05 watcher
Thanks for getting all worked up Koby. If I really think that the Liberals came out as bad as the Conservatives, I'd be predicting a straight NDP win.
That said, though, this post is about something different. Gurmant Grewal has officially copped out at the last minute. With the writ already dropped, god knows who (or what) will be nominated before the holiday season...
30 11 05 Buhay
I lived in this riding during the minority government and Nina did a pretty good job here. She seemed well known even by those who weren't politically active. Mind you, when I moved to the riding and tried to join her riding association, no one ever bothered to get back to me. As long as she's managed to organise that riding association, she should do well and here's why.
The Liberals and NDP always split their votes in this riding federally. The Liberals will succeed in scaring some NDPippers to defect to them but the NDP have a strong enough base to hold on to some votes, just enough to let Nina get through the middle.
The provincial NDP candidate did win our area of her riding but defeated a star provincial Liberal candidate who was not an incumbent, not Indo-Canadian and not someone well known in the area. And of course there is no BC Tory party. It will probably be as close as before but especially now with her husband gone, Nina will take this seat.
30 11 05 watcher
Three names are being targeted as possible successors: Sher-e Punjab news director Harjinder Thind, former Vancouver South Liberal candidate Shinder Purewal, and Phil Eidsvik, executive director of the BC Fisheries Survival Coalition.
Eidsvik has strong populist principles while Thind and Purewal have ethnic appeal.
29 11 05 TL
Grewal is not seeking re-election. The slate is clean, and the Conservatives prepare to get back into action by maintaining their base they had before the Grewal era.
29 11 05 LN
Gurmant has announced he is stepping aside, however inside sources claim 3 high profile names are coming forward to be the next candidate. These 3 names are very high profile and would give a big time win to the Conservatives and enable them to keep this riding.
29 11 05 Gregor Burton
Gurmant is out. On paper, it looks more like a Lib-NDP race. I think it will be, but in the end, I think that the NDP's jump in the polls will actually turn into a down-trend. It's between the Liberals and Conservatives outside of Quebec people. The NDP is not going to gain seats in this election - they should be lucky to hold on to what they have.
29 11 05 Jag
In Newton-North Delta, Integrity and corruption will be the top issues in this election. Both Mr. Grewal and Mr. Dhaliwal have been tainted with scandals and corruption. Mr. Grewal has has already been kicked out, Mr. Dhaliwal's name surfaces quite often in regards to corruption and favoritism in Surrey City Hall, which has caused Mr. McCallum to lose his Mayoral bid in Surrey.
So, while we have to wait for the announcement of new Conservative Candidate. At this point I believe that Nancy Clegg has a clear shot at this riding, given that two Indo-Canadian NDP MLA's from Surrey Newton and Panorama ridge come out and whole heartedly support her.
29 11 05 M. Lunn
Gurmant Grewal isn't running again, so I guess bear and ape were right that they would find someone else. I suspect he probably took an internal poll of his riding and it showed him well back of the NDP and Liberals so he knew he was going to lose his seat. While I at least think the Conservatives have some chance at winning this with Grewal gone, I still think the odds are not very good as last time around he only won by about 500 votes with the incumbent advantage. With the NDP and Liberal candidates having a good head start on the Conservatives in terms of campaigning this could also make a difference in a tight riding like this, not to mention despite the jump for the Conservatives, they are still polling lower than 2004 meaning they will still lose seats in BC although not as many as many thought earlier.
29 11 05 Ape Without Bear
I just saw on the news that Grewal is not running in Newton-North Delta. This is going to be a significant boost for the CPC (who wants to bet that he was forced out). The race has now gone from a mostly Liberal/NDP battle to a definite three way race.
29 11 05 Sanjay
Grewal just announced on Indian Radio he will not run and hurt the party any further thtn he already has. It is a fight between the Liberals & N.D.P. Liberals will take it
22 11 05 Bear and Ape
This, however, is by no means a certain Liberal victory. The NDP are polling very stongly in BC and have gained 5% at the expense of the Liberals nationally. This has become an NDP/LIberal battle with the CPC as the rump-with-hope (and needing alot of luck). In our opinion, for now, we agree with you, Grewal is sunk!
17 11 05 koby
It is absurd to suggest that the Liberals and the Conservatives came out equally bad in all of this. June 2nd: the Conservatives released a press release that tried to explain away the findings of several audio experts "When questions were raised today about the completeness of Gurmant Grewal's tapes and transcripts we immediately investigated what may have occurred. We have determined the following. Mr. Grewal provided the office of the leader of the opposition with all of the tapes he had. They were loaded onto a computer to create a master file. A series of CDs were then created from this master file, which were used in the translation and transcription process. It appears that a technical problem occurred during this transfer to CD. In two locations on the CD brief passages of a few seconds each are missing." It soon became apparent that there were more than a few seconds missing. Indeed in drips and drags over the course of a week a full 15 minutes was found to be missing and added. As for the claim that the errors were due to a copying glitch these claims, these claims were rebutted Jack Mitchell, a US forensic audio expert. June 6th Globe and Mail: "These tapes have been edited. This is not a maybe. This is not something that's unexplained. This is not, 'Oh, this is odd.' This is a definitive statement. The tapes have been edited," Mr. Mitchell said. He said he could not say with certainty how the alterations occurred, or conclude definitely that it was done intentionally. However, Mr. Mitchell said that he not only found instances of possible edits, including sections where it appeared that phrases had been added to the recordings, but also a telltale repeat of a brief snippet of conversation that was repeated exactly. "The entire thing repeats exactly. It's not the speaker repeating his phrase. This repeats exactly in the same way, with the same rhythm, with the same timing, with the same noise signatures. This is impossible," he said. Mr. Mitchell said that he is not aware of such
a glitch ever being produced in a digital transfer. "I don't know how it could. I really don't," he said. Errors in digital transfer can produce crashes that end the recording, or "dropouts" where brief gaps lasting a fraction of a second to a few seconds are created. "But as far as it actually taking the digital file and sort of combining them and doing its own editing and changing things, I think that's nonsense. I've never seen it, I've never heard of a report of it." In addition, a section of another conversation reviewed by Mr. Mitchell, in which Mr. Dosanjh asserts that any arrangement made with Mr. Grewal "requires a certain degree of deniability" appears to have been edited in from another conversation, as Mr. Dosanjh had alleged. But Mr. Mitchell said it would take further analysis to determine that with certainty. 'The phrase is suddenly -- the amplitude is higher, the frequency content is different, meaning that essentially there are more bottom frequencies in it. The noise signature is different, and on either side of that phrase, they're the same.'"
If all of this was not enough, a quick review of the complete transcripts and tapes calls into question, for example, the claim that the Liberals ever offered Grewal a cabinet post. Subsequent additions are in capitals.
"UD: It's OK, it takes about 5 minutes, I prepare in the car itself. (Pause) I ... I think it [i.e., Stronach's defection] has made the things easier for you...
GG: Yes, that's true...
UD: and that's want you want
GG: Yes
UD: Cabinet can be done right away
UD: Actually, you don't want to lose the advantage. If you do it right away, you lose the advantage of numbers. Those are issues ....
GG: Anyway, let's talk"
Minus a couple of sentences it appears that UD was offering Grewal a cabinet post. In actual fact he is agreeing with Grewal that Stronach would be ushered into Cabinet right away and that Grewal had actually insisted that the same thing could and should be done for him too.
Of course, the icing on the cake was that revelations about tape tampering where not the media's sole focus. There was also Grewal's airport escapade, a revisting of his hiring of Rachel Mardsen, revelations that he once claimed to have worked for dictator Samuel Doe, and CBC allegations that he obtained entry into the country under false pretences.
There is no way all of this will not play a prominent role in any election campaign. Grewal is sunk.
15 11 05 TL
You know, this riding is a tough one. Many people are Conservative here, but cannot bring themselves to back Mr. Grewal. Last election Marsdon and other affairs hurt the Grewal camp, and now the infamous Grewal tapes are bringing him down. Unless Grewal can pull off a miracle then Nancy Clegg and the NDP will snatch this one. The growth of the NDP here is very strong, and I cannot see the Liberals picking this one up unless they really focus on this, which could hurt their campaigns elsewhere. If they can get a Surrey seat then this is the one to get, but I still think that the NDP will take this.
13 11 05 watcher
People who didn't vote Liberal or NDP have little incentive to do so this time around. So if you want someone from the Conservative Party to represent your interests in Newton-North Delta, you still have to vote for Grewal! It's like Jim Prentice in Calgary North-east. He voted to same-sex marriage, but who else can Conservative supporters vote for?
It's possible that Conservative voters who hate Grewal's lack of loyalty, but at the same time, have no use for the Liberals or NDP, will stay home and boycott the next election. This hypothetical Conservative lethargy will allow the Liberals or NDP to creep up to first place.
Now, the Grewal tapes have shown that the Liberals are just as keen on shady backroom dirty politics as Grewal himself, so between a Liberal v.s. NDP race, the NDP has the moral high ground. But the NDP finished third place last time, and even the margins weren't very large, with Nancy Clegg (not exactly a strong candidate) running again, I'm doubtful as to whether the NDP can pull enough votes to win this seat.
Everything taken into account, this riding will likely become a battleground of the attack ads come next election. Yay good politics!
31 10 05 KP
Sukh Dhaliwal will win this, hands down. The Indo-Canadian community has had enough of Grewal. They have nothing against Nancy Clegg (NDP) They just think that, this time, Sukh has the best chance to beat Gurmant. In the last Provincial election, Guy Gentner (NDP) won because he is Guy Gentner (love him or hate him, anyone who lives in Delta has definitely heard of him), and he was supported by people who have never voted NDP in their lives) I supported Guy, from the get-go, and will Federally support the NDP, again. However, the Liberals will take it
10 10 05 Aaron Sherwood
It started to look like Grewal had turned the corner but I've heard an experienced political vet has just quit his job. If Grewal can't keep talented staff this close to an election, I'll bet the next report will not be so favourable.
Oh, it's not Rachel Marsden this time.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
If Gurmant Grewal runs again he will definitely lose his seat. The question is will it be to the NDP or liberals. This area has a strong Indo-Canadian population who generally vote liberal and Sukh Dhaliwal despite his connections to the BC Liberals who are not popular amongst the Indo-Canadians, is still well-respected in the Indo-Canadian community. The NDP did really well here provincially so if they choose the right candidate they could win this. If either Harry Bains or Jagrup Brar ran here under the NDP banner, they would probably win, although I cannot see either of them quitting provincial politics.
20 06 05 Bear and Ape
There has been and will continue to be a helluva lot of predictions for this riding, especially with the storm of controversy that Grewal is in. Truth be told, no one can make any accurate predictions about the outcome in this riding. One thing can be said for some certainty, if Grewal is renominated, then it is likely that the conservatives will lose this riding (people think politicians are corrupt at the best of times and Grewal is certainly not having a good time). Our prediction is that Grewal's "stress leave" will become a permanent leave when the writ is dropped, as the CPC finds a new candidate. At that point all three main parties have a good chance at this riding.
08 06 05 BLJ
Well, the continuous negative media attention focused upon Gurmant Grewal likely has cost him considerable credibility and now his ability to retain this seat. Last time around, his incumbency was what likely allowed him to retain this seat with a 500 vote margin. The area has a large Indo-Canadian community, which likely is tilted in favour of the federal Liberals. I now suspect that there will be movement of some CPC voters to the Liberals, which will overcome that previous 500 vote deficit. If federal polling trends continue in favour of the federal Liberals in B.C., this seat will likely be the Liberals only other seat south of the Fraser River besides Richmond.
03 06 05 Craig
The Grewal-Murphy-Dosanjh scandal will be costly for both the Liberals and Conservatives here as people don't know who to blame. This was a strong 3-way race last time and a lot of angry Tories will stay home and angry Liberals will jump to the NDP. The result is a huge pickup for the NDP. Predicted results: NDP 40%, CPC 27%, LIB 26%, GRN 6%, others 1%.
02 06 05 Aric H
Obviously Mr. Grewal was going to be in for a tough fight anyway since he only won this seat through vote splitting and by only around 500 votes. This is another one of those 3 way seats where the 3 main parties all had close votes. You can also see that it is not a Conservative riding by how many more people vote Liberal and NDP when you put those 2 together and compare it to the Con vote. In addition to this challenge for Mr. Grewal, if he is hurt by the current "Watergate North" taping scandal, this could be the final factor that does him in as his credibility is being discussed on the news every day by political analysts.
01 06 05 M. Lunn
This could go to any of the three parties. The NDP did well here provincially, but that is because many federal liberals vote NDP provincially. Add to the fact this area has a large Indo-Canadian community who go solidly NDP provincially but mostly go liberal or conservative federally. If the BC NDP vote goes predominately to either the liberals or NDP, this will go to them, but if it splits evenly as it did last time around the Conservatives could sneak up the middle. However the Grewal tapes will likely hurt Gurmant Grewal.
01 06 05 Mike D
I agree that the provincial results in all parts of this riding bode well for the NDP. Provincial NDPer Guy Gentner was not expected to win North Delta, but took it handily. The Surrey results were massively NDP. The question is how badly Germant Grewal has damaged himself with his little spy games. Few outside the South Asian community can really even guess the level of embarrassment and confusion he is causing. Will the huge South Asian political machine turn on Grewal?
28 05 05 Mark R.
The NDP have solidified their base in BC. With the recent better than expected provincial popular vote, and wins in this area provincially, with the Liberal vote likely to drop from '04's result, will push this riding into the NDP column. Mr. Grewal's credibility has come under fire with the recent accusations of bribery for his abstention of voting on the budget. Any NDP increase in vote will defeat the incumbent MP.
27 05 05 JC
Grewal's Wild Accusations will do him in, as both the husband and the wife will be sent home packing.
09 05 05 hatman
The Liberals will lose enough support here to the NDP to push this very close riding into the NDP column. The NDP was only off by 1,500 votes here, depite finishing in third. This margin should be enough for the NDP to win off of the Liberals who are in danger of falling below the 10,000 mark. Grewal may increase his vote totals, but it wont be enough to defeat the NDP here.
08 05 05 BLJ
As the 2004 results indicate, a true three-way race. The riding does not have conservative or centre-right demgraphics, has a large Indo-Canadian population, and, in my opinion, is the toughest of all B.C. seats to predict at this juncture.
08 05 05 CornPop
If Sukh Dhaliwal runs again here, which I am sure he will, he is going to win. Gurmant Grewal was already on his way out during the last election, for him to win by only 520 votes when he is a well-known incumbent spells his demise. Add on his mini-scandal of breaking immigration rules, and this riding is Liberal.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
This was a close three way race, so the Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP all have a reasonable shot at taking this one. This riding has a large Indo-Canadian community who often vote for the person as opposed to the party. If either the liberals or NDP can attract someone who is well-liked in the Indo-Canadian community, they can probably win this. This is also the only riding where the liberals won the advanced polls yet lost to the Conservatives on election day, yet many other ridings had the exact opposite happen.

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