1:35 AM 20/05/2005

Prediction Changed
1:04 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Green Party/Parti Vert
Karan Bowyer
Stockwell Day
John Harrop
David Perry

Stockwell Day

2004 Result:
Stockwell Day
Vanessa Sutton
Joyce Procure
Harry Naegel
Jack William Peach
Lelannd Haver

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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17 05 05 hatman
As much as he's hated in most of the rest of Canada, Stockwell Day will win this seat once again. It is a very Conservative riding. He won it by over 13,000 votes in 2004. He's won it by huge margins ever since he won a by-election in 2000. The riding went NDP in 1988, but their numbers recently do not indicate any strength here, plus in '88 they only won it be a few votes.
12 05 05 A.S.
It says something about Stockwell Day's clout that in spite of all his debacles, the net effect of 2004's BC Tory deflation was only to sink him a smidgen under 50%. *I* wouldn't guarantee his margin will increase--though that's more a token allowance for 2004's BC Tory sink/NDP rise pattern possibly continuing. Then again, while it's easy to unfairly stereotype a seat like Okie-Koo-Koo as uniform Bible Belt koo-koo, one wonders how much of a Richard Florida "Big Sort" effect a la Red & Blue AmeriKKKa is in process, i.e. more and more people are choosing, or fleeing, Stockwell Day country precisely because it's that: Stockwell Day country. Thus the stereotype becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and places like Penticton gradually morph into outposts of, say, Spokane or Coeur D'Alene. A federal politician as an advertisement for his region? Especially in this case, no comment. At this rate, the most legitimate long-term threat to Stockwell Day (such as it is) may come from Green, for all anybody cares.
08 05 05 Nick Boragina
Despite being parachuted in here in 2000, Stockwell Day has taken to this riding and this riding has taken to him. He should be sliding back into office easily. One thing this new party has going for it, is that it has two former leaders, MacKay for the eastern half of the country, and Day for the west. Being the former leader of the Conservative Party (preception is everything in politics) will certainly help him out here. It's good that he even stuck with politics instead of resigning. I think he'll even increase his margin.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
As much as I shiver at the thought of Stockwell Day being our next Foreign Affairs minister, this may very well happen if Stephen Harper becomes prime-minister. Stockwell Day will certainly win this riding. The more interesting race to watch in this riding is the non-Okanagan portion in the next provincial election (Yale-Lillooet) which will be a close battle between the liberals and NDP provincially. The BC Liberals will take the Okanagan portion, which always goes for the most right wing party on the ballot.

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