12:07 PM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:39 AM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Raymond Chan
Green Party/Parti Vert
Richard Mathias
Darrel Robert Reid
Neil Smith

Hon. Raymond Chan

2004 Result:
Raymond Chan
Alice Wong
Dale Jackaman
Stephen H.F. Kronstein
Allan Warnke

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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15 01 06 Jason Ng
Raymond Chan is setting himself up to lose. I was at a candidates meeting at a local Asian mall in Richmond and he didn't show up. Instead they got Simon Yu from all the way in Cariboo-Prince George, their next nearest Chinese candidate. If he has to avoid the media and his own constituents that's a good indication that many votes are swinging away from him. The questions fielded by the audience were noticeably anti-Liberal as well. Once the ethnic vote abandons the Liberals they don't have a hope of winning this riding.
11 01 06 Marty
With the Conservatives rebounding in the polls, the head tax issue, and the Liberal meltdown, this riding should definitely be moved into TCTC. I live in West Richmond, and the signs on private property are tilting in Reid's favour. Granted, the apts in the core don't have signs, but with this riding changing hands before, and the rising storm against the Liberals, MP Chan is definately sweating.
08 01 06 Fabian B
PM Paul Martin should have followed the famous Aphrosim "Do No Harm" when he came to BC last week. Instead, he went to Vancouver and 1)pledged to protect public health care--thereby hurting his Esquimalt MP Keith Martin who later revealed to the media that he excluded himself from that News Conference since he supported more Private health care; and 2)he apologised for the Chinese Head Tax. Unfortunately, his second apology came much too late since the Tories had made a similiar pledge at the start of the campaign as the Vancouver Sun's Vaughn Palmer noted on Friday's Politics with Don Newqman show. Worse still, his Liberal MP in Richmond--Raymond Chan--had constantly defended the Liberal government's(ie: Martin's) refusal to apologise for the Head Tax--just read the Chinese papers. Now that Martin has apologised out of the blue, Chan has lost face. Losing "face" or one's reputation is one of the most humiliating sins in Chinese society. Most Chinese voters there will be angry at the fact that Martin suddenly apologized for the Head Tax just 2 weeks before the election--when the polls show him behind Harper--when he had 18 months to do so while in Government. As for Mr. Chan, I wouldn't want to be in his shoes--how can he defend the Liberal government's sudden change on the Head Tax issue--something which he so publicly defended in the media. His name is associated with the Head Tax in voter's minds now, no thanks to Martin. Martin just hurt the Liberal campaign in BC now because voters here--including Chinese voters in Richmond--will see that he has no real moral compass and will say anything to win votes. He isn't sincere. While Chan may have a strong lead in the polls in Richmond, Martin's about face just hurt Chan's reputation and helped Conservative Darrel Reid's chances a little. The fact that most Chinese are social conservatives won't hurt Reid's chances I guess but minority voters rarely vote one just one issue like SSM. Integrity and ethics, however, may play a higher with Richmond voters now after
08 01 06
Reform as party was not racist, and if they were perceived that way, these feelings have definately subsided. Voters here will notice that in Vancouver Kingsway, the CPC is running KanMan Wong, in Vancouver South, the CPC is running Tarlok Sablok, and in Vancouver East the CPC is running Elizabeth Pagtakhan. This in itself is proof to the Chinese of Richmond the CPC is not made up of Reform elements, so I don't think it's going to hurt CPC chances here.
However, we must notice how Raymond Chan conducted himself. In debates he said very clearly to the people of Richmond that he will NOT be supporting the same-sex marriage bill as it may interfere with religious rights. He said that civil unions may have been the way to go. Then, when he was appointed to cabinet and the Liberals whipped Cabinet to vote for SSM, he voted FOR the bill, despite that he clearly told his constituents he staunchly opposed SSM. I believe that in the last election, Alice Wong lost some votes to Chan because a) they perceived Harper as scary and b) Chan opposed SSM, so it was safe for them to vote for him. This time however: a) Harper has "improved" his image to make himself look "less scarier" and b) Chan flip-flopped. Residents of Richmond aren't going to fall for Chan this time. Add the Chinese Head Tax issue into this, and the CPC has got this one in the bag, not because the residents Richmond they particularly like Reid, but they despise Chan.
(P.S. Being of some Chinese ethinicity myself, I know what general Chinese culture is like- very conservative.)
01 01 06 Jim
I am a chinese and living in richmond. Let me tell you Raymond Chan is in some serious serious trouble.
First his flip flop on SSM issue. Before 2004 election, he was making promise about how strong he against SSM then as you know, he voted for it. For Chinses, it's not about SSM, it's how you conduct yourself and it's about his credibility. right after SSM, a large chunk of his supporters turned against him.
second head tax issue. for us, it's not about money, it's about the dignity of this community. what Raymond has done made whole community "lose face".
Con has a very decent shot in richmond, if they run a OK campaign. many of friends will vote anyone but Raymond.
30 12 05 love, sydney
This may need to be shifted to TCTC soon, as all the media play on the Chinese head tax hasn't died down yet. Chan is caught between a rock and a hard place on this issue -- an apology without redress may have taken the sting out of the rival Chinese-Canadian factions, but then the gov't risks legal charges. My Chinese relatives (recent immigrants) are adamant that the gov't is doing the right thing, but the press keeps reciting that this is a very contentious issue. So where are Chinese-Canadian voters, angry at the gov't's decision, going to plant their votes? With the impotent and socialist NDP? Turn Harper Tory? Or stay at home? My feeling is that it's going to be more of option 3, giving the Conservative a shot at knocking off Chan.
29 12 05 M. Lunn
Nappy - I know many Chinese people and almost all of them are voting Liberal. In fact according to statscan 67% of Chinese have no religious affiliation so while same-sex marriage may have been a big issue for the religious ones, it isn't for the majority. The Chinese are generally right leaning on economic issues, but they haven't forgotten Reform's racist past so they won't go over to the Conservatives for another few elections. In addition, Richmond is a rather urban riding so even most of the non-Chinese vote will go Liberal, not Conservative. Yes this did go Canadian Alliance by only 2 points in 2000, but the CA was at 49% in the polls while the Conservatives are struggling to crack the 30% mark this time around, so if the CA could barely win it in 2000, the Tories certainly won't win it this time around.
28 12 05 Nappy
I know what most people are thinking on this one; raymond is the only chinese Mp in canada and a minister, it is fool-proof. Well, that's what they thought back in 2000 and he died for it. NDP is not of an issue here; it is Chinese strong hold, and Chinese don't vote NDP, no matter how hard your try.
But here is the deal, to clear the myth. 1. Raymond is not liked by the Chinese. and his popularity has gone from bad to worse since he became a minister. The fact that he is no skill in diplomacy and handle each situation so wishy washy will cause him big time. A lot of these Chinese believe in either Christianity or buddhism. Well, the same sex marriage thing just killed you Raymond. I had been talking to friends of mine from quite a few churches. Chinese pastors has been encouraging their congregation not to vote Liberals but conservative, due to this single issue. While I don't agree with it, I don't blame them.
While Reid is not exactly well known and he is a fundamentalist, well guess what, a lot of Chinese people don't care, they care about single issues, and guess what they got two to hit Raymond on, same sex and head tax comp. Which way will it go? Well let's just say we won't have a chinese MP anymore in parliament, which is a damn shame.
11 12 05 Keith
I think that it is incorrect to suggest that a white candidate can't win in Richmond. Joe Pescisolido (SP?) beat Ray Chan with the Canadian Alliance. The interesting factor in the current election is both Chan and current CPC candidate Darrell Ried are evangelical Christians. THe SSM issue will be interesting to watch here, as both candidates are personally opposed to it, but Ray Chan knows he must stay in line to stay in cabinet. It could come down to which side of this debate the electorate in Richmond is on but I think Chan will win a squeaker here. However, my record in predicting Richmond as abysmal so I may just have given Chan his kiss of death. :)
10 12 05 Delia
Raymond Chan will win for sure, especially since Calgary-West MP Rob Anders sent such an offensive, homophobic pamphlet to riding residents.
09 12 05 watcher
Some very interesting things have happened as of late.
Until recently, Tories have been in bed with the Liberals on the Chinese head tax issue. No formal apologies, no financial compensation.
But, on December 7, the Vancouver Sun reported that 3 Tories from BC (John Cummins, Kanman Wong, and -- yes -- Darrel Reid!) went against the Tory top brass and demanded that apologies and (preferably) financial compensation be included in the Chinese head tax negotiations.
And, on December 9, the Vancouver Sun reported that Stephen Harper officially reversed party policy on the Chinese head tax and bowed to the demands of Reid, Cummins, and Wong.
In my personal opinion, the race in Richmond will no longer be the Liberal landslide as I once thought it would be. Darrel Reid went out on a limb and worked harder for the Chinese than Raymond Chan. He will likely finish a strong second even if he doesn't win. However, it should be noted that, should Reid win, it will most likely be by a small margin as well.
18 11 05 J L
Richmond is what some people might call "Hong Kong, BC". Chinese people are conservative only to a sense, and some still aren't as comfortable with Steve Harper as he'd like the Chinese to be. If it was a Chinese candidate that the Cons were running against Ray Chan, then maybe they could take it. But Harper's ads about minorities being bigots (as mentioned in a previous post) pissed off a lot of Chinese, myself included. Chan should take this, but not by any comfortable means at all.
15 11 05 Bear and Ape
Marcus, get off the SSM thing, no one cares in urban Canada to do anything about it except the very religious. You said it yourself, a Liberal leaning riding where Chan won fairly decisively against Alice Wong. Now they have a hard line conservative running...in Vancouver? C'mon! The CPC is a distant third in most of the Vancouver area. Watch Chan, who we agree is a puppet of Paul Martin, waltz to an easy victory.
15 11 05 watcher
Actually, Marcus, Alice Wong very consciously chose to not run in Richmond again, and -- get this -- threw her support behind Darrel Reid! She even wrote a letter of recommendation lauding Reid's supposedly "impeccable reputation" to the Richmond Conservative riding association. I have no idea why she did that, but that was probably why Reid even had a chance at winning the Richmond nomination in the very first place. He won by a very narrow margin too, 34 votes or so out of 500-something. Interestingly enough, out of all seven candidates that ran in the Richmond nomination race, NONE OF THEM WAS CHINESE! So no matter what the outcome, you wouldn't see a Chinese Conservative candidate in Richmond in this election. Which is already a setback.
Reid's stance on abortion will probably not sit well with the Chinese. Now I personally know that there is a rather visible Chinese Christian community which is on good terms with secular Chinese people, but it's doubtful just how much of an impact that will have. Alice Wong was known to have made inconsistent remarks on abortion in her efforts to woo secular and Christian Chinese voters at the same time. Now you put a real Christian anti-abortion guy in Richmond to represent the Conservatives and who knows what will happen. Things will get polarized, to say in the least.
On the bright side, Reid was the policy research director for Preston Manning in 1993, and this should tell you that he had a very direct influence in coming up with the Reform Party's populist policy platform that took the West by storm. So if Richmond voted for populism in 2000, they'll find some appeal in Darrel Reid, not to mention that tax breaks for families would work well with the Chinese. How much of an impact that will bring is, again, uncertain. If Reid is socially moderate like Joe Peschisolido, I'm almost certain that Reid will win, but Reid isn't socially moderate, so...
14 11 05 Marcus
Leaning Liberal, and I blame it on the Conservatives for not nominating Alice Wong for a rematch and instead nominating a pretty hardline-Conservative Darrel Reid. Still, Darrel Reid might still have a chance. First, Raymond Chan promised to thousands of people in his riding that he will vote against SSM. But being the un-assertive puppet of Paul Martin he is, Chan voted in favour of SSM. Raymond Chan will be leaking votes to Darrel Reid. A Liberal leaning riding, but still too close to call.
25 10 05 Paul
The race will be close, but the end Harper's comments about Asians all voting Liberal will come to haunt him. In addition to being true.
The closeness of the race will be due to homosexual marriage, and it will actually help the CPC to get socially conservative votes precisely because the candidate has solid so-con credentials -- voters in favour of SSM already reject the CPC anyway, so they won't lose any social liberal voter because there aren't any to lose. But it won't be enough. Close Liberal win here.
10 10 05 watcher
This is one instance where I really have to criticize Conservative candidate logistics. If Kanman Wong is in Richmond and Darrel Reid in Vancouver Kingsway, the Conservatives would lose Vancouver Kingsway for sure but at least have a good shot in Richmond. But putting Kanman Wong in Vancouver Kingsway and Darrel Reid in Richmond will probably nix the Conservative's odds of winning either riding.
Darrel Reid, as an individual, is actually fairly sociable, although if he were MP he will make some fairly socially conservative votes. Even though I don't agree with Reid's views on several issues, I personally would vote him over Raymond Chan any day, if I were in Richmond. I was kind of hoping that he will pull a David Chudnovsky v.s. Patrick Wong type of upset, but unfortunately, as much as I loathe Raymond Chan, this man knows how to campaign, unlike Patrick Wong. Therefore I think this riding will go Liberal, unless Kanman Wong and Darrel Reid switch ridings right now.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
The Conservatives will not take this as long as Stephen Harper is leader and they chose religious right people like Darrel Reid to run under their banner. The Chinese may be against gay marriage, but it is not a major issue for them. The economy, taxes, health care, and immigration are issues that matter to them. Many Chinese were insulted by Harper's ads on gay marriage since they painted all immigrants as less tolerant. The Chinese also have not forgotten Harper's past statements about only areas with large Asian population voting liberal west of Winnipeg and that they live in ghettoes. Also his defence of Betty Granger and Sharon Hayes won't go over well. Considering the BC Liberals took all three Richmond ridings by a landslide, this should be a safe conservative riding, but until they get rid of Stephen Harper is leader, it will stay a safe liberal riding. Raymond Chan will likely crack the 50% mark this time and the Conservatives will be lucky if they get above 30%.
09 09 05
With a huge conservative, traditional Chinese population here, Chan will be in for a scare. Chan, who has stated many, many times that he would protect marriage, lied, and instead, voted for the bill. His willingness to do anything Paul Martin tells him to do will make him lose this seat. If however, he kept his promise, then I'd expect a solid win for him again. Ridiculous of the Conservatives not to run a Chiense candidate though...
13 06 05 Kathy T
Raymond Chan will win, perhaps even by an increased margin. This is one of the ridings that the Conservatives could win, but the candidate that they nominated will lose it for them. The president of their riding association resigned (or tried to) because of the candidate that was nominated.
02 06 05 Mike D
There are many non-Christian voters in this very multicultural riding and their numbers are growing. Until the Conservatives get a clue about this, this riding will become a safer and safer Liberal seat. Chan by a larger margin than last time.
01 06 05 M. Lunn
This would have likely gone liberal no matter who the conservatives nominated, but nominating a religious fundamentalists will ensure it goes liberals. This is a blue liberal riding, which is why the PCs won it prior to 1993 and the BC Liberals, who are right leaning on economic issues, won all three Richmond ridings massively, but this is not a social conservative riding like Abbotsford.
28 05 05 A. Vancouverite
Oh for cripes sakes, no one whose votes are actually in play cares about same-sex marriage to the extent that it will determine who they vote for. Health-care, transportion, the economy, individual representatives, party leaders, integrity etc are far more important when determining votes for "swing voters". Frankly people who really care about it that much are already in the Conservative camp, it's not the social liberals who are intolerant, it's the social conservatives who are intolerant and rigid. Raymond Chan was on the record as being for it, and it was rather clear to everyone in Richmond who was paying attention, and yet he won by a relatively comfortable margin...even though Alice Wong tried to continuously use that issue to her advantage. If all things (federal/provincial trends) remain equal he'll win again. If the Conservatives pick a better candidate they might come closer, but the thing is that there's no reasonable reason to assume that the Conservatives will win this riding if all things remain equal (ie: the results from the last election aren't massively changed a reasonable assumption since things really haven't changed that much Cons stalled, Libs down slightly, NDP up slightly). Let's not forget that the Alliance barely won this in 2000 when their BC support was about 13% higher than the Conservatives [the allegedly merged party that can't even get as many votes as the Alliance]. There's probably still a lot of time till the next election, so lots of things could happen, but this riding is far more of a reasonable Liberal prediction than Vancouver-Kingsway one of only a few other Liberal predictions on this site for BC.
27 05 05 JC
Raymond Chan got very lucky with the nomination of Darrel Reid, Reid's record at Focus on the Family is going to be attacked relentlessly, there is no way Reid will win.
22 05 05 EP
The Torries seem to be rolling in the radical social conservatives in BC! Darrell Reid won the CPC nomination in Richmond riding (BC). Mr Reid is the former president of Focus On The Family in Canada. He has campaigned against same-sex marriage, abortion and gay rights. This would certainly be no help in softening CPC's far right image.
17 05 05 koby
Smear? Sharon Hayes did not accuse Chinese immigrants of anything; she “alleged” that Chinese government permitted the “consumption of human fetuses as health food”, thereby implying that this practice existed in China. “Chinese doctors” eat them just "like vitamins." In terms of their health benefits, in the eyes of Chinese doctors they "even better than placentas". Of course neither she, nor her current employer Focus on the Family, who where the only two to have made the accusation, had any evidence to back up their allegations other than a story in a tabloid newspaper. Interestingly enough, even after the controversy broke, her constituency office continued to send out stories about alleged Chinese cannibalism. It is good thing for Wong that Harper is not on record as defending Hayes. Less likely to be forgotten is Harper's defense of Granger. Harper's defense of Granger might not have gotten a lot of play in the national media. However, it certainly did in Richmond for reasons I should have mentioned before. Not only does Richmond have a large Chinese Canadian population, but one of the reasons former MP for this riding, Joe Peschisolido, cited for switching from the Alliance to the Liberals was Betty Granger’s involvement in Stephen Harper’s successful bid to get back into politics in 2002 and Harper’s defense of her “Asian Invasion” comment.
Chan is also a cabinet minister. No one is talking about Wong being in any Conservative cabinet.
12 05 05 Jack
if Alice Wong is running again, then Conservatives will win this time. Raymond Chan has lost lots of good will from Chinese community due to Same Sex Marriage flip flop.
11 05 05 Buhay
Just a note to koby - the Conservative candidate was a Chinese-Canadian. But Richmond didn't elect Alice Wong because she was a bad candidate (from what I hear) not because they liked Chan.
If the Conservatives can select a good candidate here, they have a shot at this riding (I just moved in Vancouver so I'm starting to know the area). Immigrants tend to be more socially conservative simply because Canadian law is way too liberal and Chan can only defend those views for so long - imagine him defending the Liberal platform that endorsed legalising prostitution). And no former Port Moody MP Sharon Hayes wasn't accusing Chinese immigrants of eating unborn babies, she fell for this hoax by a Chinese artist (though a pro-lifer definitely has a chance in this riding too). It's these kind of smears that just illustrate how intolerant social liberals are.
04 05 05 BLJ
2004 Results: Liberal - 44.5%, CPC - 35.3%, NDP - 15%. A riding with a large Chinese-Canadian community, the demographics are somewhat "blue" Liberal similar to the North Shore with its close proximity to Vancouver. If Liberal votes melts in B.C. this would be a CPC pick-up, but that seems unlikely and therefore another likely Liberal hold.
03 05 05 M. Lunn
With the liberal numbers not declining as much in BC as elsewhere, Raymond Chan should hold his riding. This is a centre-right riding that would probably go Conservative if they had a more moderate leader and only goes liberal since they cannot stomach the hardline policies of the old Reform Party elements that still lurk within the Conservatives. This did go PC in 1988 and is one of the BC Liberals strongest areas in the province.
02 05 05 koby
Using gay marriage as a wedge issue, the Conservatives are looking to attract minority voters. The basis for such a strategy is sound. The problem is Harper is not the leader to pull it off. He has too much baggage and only looks good in comparison to old Reform MPs such Sharon Hayes, who held a news conference in August, 1995 to repeat a tabloid allegation that Chinese eat fetuses in the hopes of improving their health. Harper famously described ridings such as these as being "dominated by people who are either recent Asian immigrants or recent migrants from Eastern Canada: people who live in ghettoes and who are not integrated into Western Canadian society." Of course he said this when he was out of politics and so he spoke for himself not for the party. More damaging is his defense of Betty Granger, while a representative of his party. Granger warned a bunch of Manitoba university students of an "Asian Invasion". When asked to explain herself, she said this: "Have you been to the West Coast? Oh about five years ago I was out there actually on school trustee business and found myself staying with friends that live there. I call it the Asian invasion, but that might not be the best wording, but nevertheless, the Asian students that have come over to Canada pressured the university system. Our own Canadian students actually could not even get into some of our university programs in Vancouver and Victoria. The land prices, apparently they're buying up blocks and blocks -- a well-monied population buying up blocks and blocks of real estate, building ... like there's a whole economy that (U of W political science department chair) Alan (Mills) was referring to that could occur in Manitoba that is occurring there. I wanted to talk to you also about what was happening once Hong Kong shut down with the boat people, the highly questionable people wanting citizenship in our own country. Our own due process had to go into play. We've actually interred some Asian peoples for a year before they were sent back to their homes. I think that problem has been addressed to some degree, but this is problematic not only for immigration, but also for justice issues because there was a realization that what was coming off these boats was not the best clientele you would want to come into this country." When Harper got back into politics he went to bat for Granger. According to Harper, people's anger at Granger was misplaced. It was Granger who was the victim; on one occasion he said she was the victim of a "slur" campaign and on another occasion he likened opposition to her remark as a "kind of low-level form of McCarthyism." Chan will retain his seat.

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