10:57 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
3:31 PM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Saanich-Gulf Islands
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Jennifer Burgis
Green Party/Parti Vert
Andrew Lewis
Gary Vincent Lunn
Western Block
Patricia O'Brien
Sheila Orr

Gary Lunn

2004 Result:
Gary Lunn
David Mulroney
Jennifer Burgis
Andrew Lewis
Mary Moreau

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 01 06 plank
I don't live in this riding and have nothing specific to add, other than a comparison to last election, when everyone posting here said, "I bet this'll be the first Green seat in Canada." This time round, cooler heads prevail. The Greens'll get a decent amount of votes, I'm sure, but they won't win.
In fact, Greens have only ever won list seats in countries with mixed proportional representation. Prove me wrong with a single counterexample, but to my mind, a Green candidate has never won a constituency seat anywhere...
...yet. But it'll be awhile still.
12 01 05 Jack Layton's Mustache
This has been a very low-key campaign compared to 2004. I remember meeting Lunn at a local chamber-type business monthly business meeting in Sidney in 2004, and he didn't come this time. I haven't even seen an Andrew Lewis sign. Sheila Orr got trounced in the last provincial election, and I don't think it was because she wanted to create a safe stroll near the downtown capital iron, but because of two separate incidents when she allegedly parked in handicapped spaces, and also because of her low visibility as an MLA.
11 01 06 SW
People tend to vastly overrate the appeal of former provincial or municipal politicians who have LOST. Name recognition is sometimes good, but the relation of "Hey, isn't that the person we already kicked out of provincial office, and now she's running FEDERALLY!??" is not a positive one.
10 01 06 LJ Amundsen
1. Conservative 2. NDP 3. Liberal 4. Green. Andrew Lewis, though more or less untainted by Jim Harris' unpopularity in his own party, has managed to put his foot in it by lining up behind the Greens' incompetent staff (who botched so many things this election its become obvious even to the press trying to ignore them) and sending a "loyalty oath" to all the candidates signed by himself and the other two Deputy Leaders. This got very vocal opposition from some grassroots types, who hadn't liked the way the GPC was actually suing former candidates and whistleblowers. This was all over the press and the GPC response was to try to libel chill the press. Smart. Not.
Lewis is low-key this time for several reasons, including not supporting Jim Harris and also including family problems. The provincial vote was down as he didn't run, wasn't it? With him back the vote will be over 10,000 again. But the Liberals running a far left open-minded candidate will help them retain some votes and take back Green votes they lost (remember every Green vote was a swing vote in 2004) and they are not so stupid as not to consult the Green platform and promise to do everything in it (they won't do it, just promise to).
Lunn will win in a walk due to three-way competition among far leftists.
30 12 05
Orr is quite leftist and a horribly weak candidate with a not-so-good record as a provincial MLA. Putting these factors into perspective, Lunn, NDP, and the Green will be able to grab votes from Orr. I wouldn't be surprised if the Green candidate, Andrew Lewis, surpasses Orr. Fry this sunnyside for the Conservatives.
26 12 05 love, sydney
Orr's name recognition won't hurt her as much as some of the BC Libs running in this election -- in fact, she's picking off more Lunn supporters as they distance themselves from Harpers slide to the right edge. Certainly he's propped himself into a middle lean-look, but this riding, which includes a high income, high education background, isn't as swayed by a GST cut (with evangelical backed votes of SSM and abortion) as they like the idea of a tax cut and public daycare. Lunn is not as popular in this riding as we are led to believe, either. Score it a key win for the Grits.
23 12 05 JC
This might be the most interesting Race on Election Night, it will definitely be a four way race in this area between are three candidates. Mr. Lunn got in because of a three-way vote split between the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens, My prediction is that Jennifer Burgis is going to win, Most greens are not going to abandon their party after their results. So where are the Liberals going to go? The greens and liberals are going to go to the NDP and that is going to help them win. Also It's quite possible some disgruntled tories might vote green in protest.
22 12 05 West out East
Although I am a strong Green Party supporter, I think that Lewis will not be able to get enough votes, especially with the low-key campaign style he will be running this year. However, the Greens will take votes away from both the Conservatives, and especially the Liberals. I expect the Greens to lose some votes to the NDP, depending on a three-way race evidenced by local polling.
21 12 05 Rick S
Orr has zero chance. Gary Lunn will easily win this riding and have the biggest tory plurailty on Van Island.
Orr was destroyed in Vic-Hillside in the BC provincial election and was commonly known as a far left bc liberal and in the fed lib party she is still far left (she thought a red light district / hooker stroll in Victoria would be a great idea).
Given her zero name recog in Saanich, carpet bagger status, and the fact she was badly defeated provincially, watch the NDP push past Orr and come in second place, with Orr dropping the fed libs to 3rd.
20 12 05 M. Lunn
Actually Cornpop even though Saanich South went NDP, the BC Liberals won the majority of polls in the Saanich-Gulf Islands portion, while the NDP won most of the polls on the Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca side since Saanich South is split equally between the two ridings. This also includes Gordon Head of Oak Bay-Gordon Head, while the only part the provincial NDP did well in was the northwestern part of Victoria-Hillside (Sheila Orr's former riding). That being said I agree she may very well win as Conservatives tend to go solidly BC Liberal, federal Liberals split 50/50 between the NDP and BC Liberals, while NDP goes solidly NDP provincially. I suspect the Greens and the NDP will win most of the polls in the Gulf Islands, Conservatives will take North Saanich, Central Saanich, and Sidney, which tend to be more rural in their setting, while the Liberals will take Saanich and Gordon Head, which are more urban.
18 12 05 Cornpop
Shelia will win in a close race here. The south part of the riding is very strong Liberal country, with the NDP picking up most of the votes here, as the provincial results of Saanich South show us. Saanich North returned the BC Liberal candidate, so it is not surprising that most of Lunn's support comes from this part. This is where Sheila's past reputation as being a BC Liberal will put her over the top. Add on that Lunn is pretty useless and invisible as an MP, and the Liberals have another seat here.
12 12 05 Age of Sages
This should be an easy repeat for Gary Lunn. The Liberals have fielded a candidate in Sheila Orr that has already lost her provincial seat, and support for the federal Liberals is even lower. NDP candidate Jennifer Burgis doesn't seem to catch the imagination of people, and Green candidate Andrew Lewis probably hit the glass ceiling in this riding with his strong showing last time. Don't expect to see much change here.
11 12 05 quasar
As much as I'd like to see the Greens do well here, a Green win is wishful thinking. At least this time round. But I have no doubt Lewis is really going to fight for this one and increase his vote count by a tornado. The NDP vote count will stay about the same, and we'll see the Liberal vote being siphoned off from the three parties: Conservatives, NDP, and the Greens. Gary Lunn has been a strong MP. We'll see him re-elected. Oh yea, one more thing why the Libs won't do well here: they nominated Sheila Orr. Sheila as a provincial MLA has had a horrible reputation and record, and I expect that will bring the Liberal vote count down here.
07 12 05 m.b.
This is one of two ridings I call home (Victoria the other), and the riding I will vote in on election day. Despite Shiela Orr running for the Liberals here, she has 5000 votes to make up. In fact, the Liberal campaign has been silent to date, with no Liberal election signs anywhere to be seen. Gary Lunn has the incumbent advantage going for him, and many people do like the job he's doing as MP. And while the Green vote is large on the Gulf Islands, they cannot win. All they will do is split from the Liberals and NDP, making a Conservative victory all the more easier.
04 12 05 B.C. Political Junkie
This is a tough one to call. Gary Lunn has an early advantage on signs, but he is the incumbent, so that is to be expected. NDP candidate Jennifer Burgis is the only other candidate with a sign presence in the riding right now, and she will likely get a boost from the exposure she received at a recent NDP rally in Victoria attended by Jack Layton.
Three big factors will determine who wins this riding...
1. WIll the drop in Conservative support in B.C. affect Gary Lunn's support, or is his base of 34% from 2004 solid?
2. What will happen to the Liberal vote, considering that former BC Liberal MLA Sheila Orr is running for the LIberals here. Gordon Campbell isn't the most popular person on Vancouver Island, and many potential federal Liberal voters may be turned off by the idea of voting for a former B.C. Liberal and vote for another party (and of course, will they vote NDP or Green?)
3. What will happen to the Green vote from 2004? The Greens are not doing too well in B.C. as compared to 2004, and the fact that the party is becoming increasingly right-wing on economic issues will drive away many Green voters who thought they were voting for a radical leftist party in 2004. Will they go to the NDP, Liberals, or even Tories?
Of all the ridings on Vancouver Island, this one is the hardest to call.
03 12 05 H. L. S.
Mr. Lunn has won every time in this riding going all the way back to reform days. I remember from the wee-days of election prediction project till now that this riding is always TCTC (which is fair), but the conservative have always won here due to vote splitting in the left parties.
For those why say that conservative voters will NOT vote conservative because of Mr. Harper, how many of you are actually past conservative voter in 2004? The liberals did a good job demonizing him last election, but still the voters gave Mr. Lunn a victory.
Well, the only way that I can see another party win here is that there is vote collapes in one of the left-wing parties AND a monolitic shift to another party, which I doubt will happen (with Buzz Hargrove telling NDPers to vote liberal, Layton telling NDPers not to vote liberal, and green leader to vote green
02 12 05 Richard
I am not as optimistic as the other Greens here. While it is entirely possible that, under desirable conditions, Andrew Lewis will pick up a much larger share of the vote here, I would consider his chances of being elected to be close to nil, and likely will be the lowest chance of all the major candidates other than perhaps the NDP, depending on circumstance.
I predict another close race resulting in a Conservative victory and that this riding will, once again, be the highest Green Party turnout in the nation.
02 12 05 VD
If the liberals couldn't win last time with mulrouney and the tory campaign collapsing, i don't think they'll win with badly defeated provincial backbencher Sheila Orr. Now, if the tory campaign collapses again, the NDP may be able to pick up support and pose a challenge, but for right now (and it is early) I see a continuation of the status quo (last election's results)
30 11 05 Devin Johnston
This is one of only about 3 ridings where the Green Party actually has a chance to win. With the cash influx that came with last election's success, the Greens have more resources than ever before, and it is highly likely that they will concentrate on winnable ridings. For the Greens, this election is a matter of getting a single seat won. If they can do that (they believe) they will change the perception of the party, and future electoral success will follow.
27 11 05 Bear and Ape
We agree with most of what M. Lunn has to say, however we feel that the NDP can and will make this a three-way race. It is, arguable, the most "Conservative" riding on the island (nothing in comparison to the lower mainland) but, as was mentioned, Harper is leaving a bitter taste in some people's mouths and CPC popularity has dropped. Having a blue Liberal (red Tory?) run for the Grits will give these voters a place to park their votes, but the left-leaning Liberals may jump ship to the NDP. Probably more CPC votes will go Liberal than Liberal going NDP, however we feel the Green vote will deflate (probably not collapse) and will seep into the NDP and Liberal columns. How much will go to each party? Well that all depends on organization and getting the vote out. It is enough, in our opinion, to enable the NDP to squeek out a victory if the conditions are right. We think, as of now, that the Liberals are out at front, but we all know how Liberal votes tend to collapse in BC as soon as an election is called...
Bottom line, 3 way race. Stay tunned
23 11 05 M. Lunn
I heard former BC Liberal MLA Sheila Orr has been nominated. While this might cause some left leaning Liberals to move over to the NDP (who have no chance at winning), this might also appeal to many moderate Conservatives who are also BC Liberals and are increasingly uncomfortable with Stephen Harper. I agree this is the strongest Conservative riding on the island, but I should point out, Gary Lunn got a smaller share of the popular vote in 2004 than the Liberals did in 1997, while right now (assuming the Liberals don't plunge after the writ as they have in the past) the Liberals are polling higher than in 1997 while the Tories less than 2004. In addition many people who voted Green Party last time thought they had a legitimate chance at winning this. Considering they didn't even come close, I would argue the Liberals, not the NDP are closest to the Green Party ideologically as both are fiscally conservative, but socially progressive, and environmentally conscious.
21 07 05 Nick Boragina
to say that because the greens did not win in 2004 means they will 'never' win is nothing less the grandstanding and showing off for the website. The poster, however, does have a real point, and that is that in this 05/06 election, the Greens have a lower profile then they did in 2004, and if they could not manage a win here in 2004, they wont this time. I could see their vote going up, if the greens lose out this time in free media coverage, they will make up for it with the coverage they can afford to purchase. (AKA commercials) I would expect to see the Green's vote to go up, even if only by a percent or two. I dont see that this will be enough, however, for a win. CPC hold.
01 06 05 Mike D
The provincial results are deadly for the Greens as they fell from 25% to 15% in the main provincial seat in this riding. Even with more money next time, Greens can only dream of electing an MP, especially here. Easy Conservative hold.
01 06 05 TAN
It just wouldn't be the EPP without the swamps of predictions (three federal elections running, now, plus a pair of BC provincials) of the Greens taking S-GI (or its provincial counterpart SN&tI).
The Gulf Islands comprise something like a third of the provincial riding and a sixth of the federal. If it's ever going to happen, (and, yeah, the day will comes sometime down the road) it's first going to happen provincially. Simple math. (Implementing STV, of course, would solve this Green prediction game quickly and easily, of course.)
To be fair, the Saanichy bits the federal riding tacks on are probably a little more green-friendly than the Saanichy bits north of Elk Lake shared by both, but keep in mind for every Green voter you grab from the City of Saanich proper, you're still adding at least three who're backing the mainstream parties. Indeed, they're the key to anyone hoping to defeat Lunn. The southern end of the riding is effectively sububurban Victora, and a fairly urban suburbia at that. My sense is there are a lot of NDP/Liberal swingers down there, and if they can line up behind a strong candidate on one side or the other, Gary's in trouble.
Further to that, I'm willing to bet that the Green vote may actually decline. Last election there was all manner of national attention at Lewis' campaign and, one presumes, a real sense among soft Green voters that they could well be electing an MP. As much as everyday people truly are cognisant of their political geographer, the fourth-place finish may well be on people's minds and you could see a bleeding off of tactically-minded folks who are willing to let the Green project wait another few years.
28 05 05 A. Vancouverite
R. Boyd's ridiculous comments about the left dying in BC not withstanding, the Conservatives will likely hold this riding, even though Gary Lunn is a weak MP. Maybe if the Liberals don't get too damaged by the time Gomery comes around, they could pick it up with a decent candidate like Pia Shandel (who tried to run last time, but was screwed over), that being said I doubt it. The NDP did surprisingly well here provincially, barring a re-count, winning Saanich South, and coming within a few points of winning Saanich North-and The Islands. That being said it's unlikely they'll win, but with a right-leaning Green candidate (drawing from the Liberal and Conservative camp), they could pick it up like Lynn Hunter did back in 88'. The Greens could finish ahead of the NDP, if the NDP pick a poor candidate, and they pick a decent one (remember Andrew Lewis didn't run in the provincial election), that being said they are too far behind, and haven't maintained any profile after the election so I can't see them actually winning. Perhaps this is one of the few ridings where almost any candidate could win, but the smart money would be on Lunn...but if the Conservatives couldn't capitalize on Liberal difficulties right after that explosive testimony from Jean Breaux I really wouldn't be suprised to see someone other than Lunn win, I'm just not willing to make that prediction right now though.
22 05 05
It's ridiculous anyone would say Andrew Lewis, the green candidate, would win here. Yes, I personally think he is a good candidate, but considering the real race is between the Liberals and the Conservatives, Andrew Lewis will have little chance to sneak in between them as the winner.
14 05 05 R. Boyd
I can't understand why some people think that this riding will go Green. If it didn't go Green in 2004, it will never go Green. Do the people who are posting actually live here? Considering in 2004 the national media tried to give as much coverage as possible to the Green party candidate without the possiblity of looking biased (ha!), it's hard to understand why the older and wealthier residents of the peninsula, Sidney, Cordova Bay, and Broadmead would ever dump the Conservative incumbant MP to vote for an unknown and untested party. Especially when the Conservatives are on the verge of forming government. The question is: What will happen to the Liberal vote? Mulroney has ruled himself out in SGI, leaving the NDP to pick up what's left of the left (which seems to be slowly dying in BC with Gordon Campbell's reelection). Will most Liberals vote NDP? Probably not, considering they've just battled a provincial election with them. Look to see Gary Lunn increase his margin of victory, with a possible majority.
13 05 05 RP.
What? Green is going to come from fourth to win? The Greens have even less profile this time than last. If this is the "one" where they have a chance to win, I'm genuinely sorry to say I predict another shut-out. I don't see any reason for Gary Lunn to lose this one.
12 05 05
The Green Party has profound hard to environment. Last time, they finished no higher than 4th in any riding in the country. They elected 9 extra Con MPs. If they had sat the election out the ndp would have held the balance power; the liberals would have been forced to do something on environment. It is accident that the green party is lead by a former PC. The Green will finish 4th as the will everywhere else.
12 05 05 Bozard
Increased funding and popularity for the Greens, coupled with a lot of dissatisfied Liberals are going to elect the first Green MP.
10 05 05 Observer
Who knows how this will go, but it sure won't be Green. To think otherwise is a fantasy. In last year's election, they placed just over 3000 votes behind the third place Conservative candidate. Nothing has happened in the last year to vault the Greens over the traditional parties.
10 05 05 Benjamin Waterman
Although it is still bit of a long shot, I think the Greens are in a _much_ better position to actually take this seat this year. Many people are sick of all the partisan bickering among the main three parties in this political climate. Most polls show the Greens with a much larger percentage of the vote in BC, up to 15%. This would be more than double the vote province wide, and could lead to over 30% in this riding. In a four way race, 30% should be enough to win it. And the Green Party will have about $1,000,000 to blow this election. It wouldn't be at all a bad strategy to dump a large portion of it into this riding alone, attempting to buy their way into Parliament. I really think they have a shot this time.
09 05 05 Canadian Redhead
Mr. Lewis ran a strong campaign last election (and received national attention in the process). Liberal support is falling away; conservative popularity has crested. And if the provincial Greens get even one seat in the upcoming provincial election (entirely possible, especially in ridings such as Ms. Carrs') it will solidify the Greens as a 'legitimate' party worth considering (which many other countries realised a while ago!). This could impact voters in the federal election and in SGI, could easily translate into a seat.
06 05 05 Alberta Grit
This ones going to be close, but with the Greens have increased popularity and are now seen as a viable party. Expect the Greens to target this riding with everything they've got. This will be the riding of the first Green MP in Canadian history
05 05 05 BrianJA
This is the one riding where the Greens may actually win it. In fact, if the Green Party win one seat in this election, it'll be Saanich-Gulf Islands. All they need is a strong candidate and, with their funding combined with Canadians being open to alternatives during this election, the Green candidate could snatch this one. Prediction: Green pickup by 250 votes or less.
04 05 05 BLJ
The results last time were: CPC - 34.6%, Lib - 26.8%, NDP - 21.6%, Green - ~16%. While the Greens have some strength on the Gulf Islands they seem to poach votes more so from the NDP as well as the other parties, to a somewhat lesser extent, in this particular riding. North Saanich, Central Saanich, and Sidney are areas of strength for the CPC, which are mostly suburban/rural. Liberal strength in BC seems to be relegated to the urban areas of Vancouver/Victoria. CPC hold.
03 05 05 M. Lunn
I would say this is the safest conservative seat on Vancouver Island, but a liberal upset is still possible if there is a major backlash against triggering an early election. The Greens are too far behind, while the NDP support is only strong in the Gulf Islands, since the Saanich area is generally wealthier than the rest of the Greater Victoria area. If the Conservatives don't drop in the polls after the writ is dropped than I will call this for the Conservatives.
02 05 05 Pundit
I do not see Gary Lunn losing. Now what will happen with the other three? I suspect a collapse of the Liberal vote and a large shift to Andrew Lewis of the Greens

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