2:22 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
9:25 PM 12/12/2005
Election Prediction Project

Surrey North
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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John Baloun
Surjit Kooner
Progressive Canadian
Nikolas Langlands
David Matta
Christian Heritage
Kevin Pielak
Penny Priddy
Nina Rivet
Green Party/Parti Vert
Roy Whyte


2004 Result:
Chuck Cadman
Jim Karpoff
Dan Sheel
Jasbir Singh Cheema
Sunny Athwal
Gerhard Herwig
Joyce Holmes
Roy Tyler Whyte

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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16 01 06 Mark M
Priddy is very popular in this part of the city and there are a lot of NDPers in this area. The provincial elections seem to generally go NDP, that, coupled with Priddy's personal popularity will get her in.
15 01 05 BC voter
Mr. Stenner must be smoking something green...seeing as how the provincial ridings within Surrey North voted NDP. Perhaps the voters aren't as right of centre as he claims.
12 01 06 Steve G
With the Conservatives surging in the national polls, I expect that the 2004 Cadman supporters will largely fall the Conservative category this time around. The federal NDP hasn't taken this riding since 1988, when the NDP finished first in B.C.'s federal results. The fed NDP are in second place in B.C.'s polls right now, which is also where I expect Priddy to finish.
10 01 06 Jeff Stenner
This riding is blue collar and has been blue collar for decades. This blue collar riding has consistently elected Reformers and Conservatives over its recent history. There is no reason that all of these right of centre voters will wake up on Jan 23 and say to themselves, "I'm blue collar, I better stop voting the way I have for the last 15 years and start voting for a party at the opposite end of the political spectrum". People will stay with the right of centre--especially because Harper is perceived by the electorate as the toughest on crime--an even more so because the conservatives continue to garner the old Reformer / Western protest vote as is evidenced by enormous regional support. Priddy's name recognition is worth something but not enough to surpass the enormous conservative base here. Lastly, trying to extrapolate federal results from provincial ones (especially in BC) is very dangerous. Many anti-provincial gov't NDP voters may be the same protest that wants to replace the Liberal gov't in Ottawa.
08 01 06 Whalleyite
This riding will definitely going NDP. Penny Priddy is a strong NDP candidate with name recognition. Jack Layton making his crime platform in Bear Creek Park gives the NDP a visible boost.
This is the late Chuck Cadman's riding and his wife Dona endorses Penny Priddy as the best candidate. Surrey North is predominantly a working class lower income riding that has traditionally voted NDP provincially. This election is the start where the NDP can and will count this riding as an NDP stronghold in future elections to come. Previously it was for years and decades held by Bob Wenman (Progessive Conservative) as the Fraser Valley West riding. As Fraser Valley West the Wenman wins came from the Guildford and east to Langley support. After Wenman cam Jim Karpoff from 88 to 93. In the Reform rise it went to Bridgman. Chuck Cadman took the Reform nomination and held it since as a Reformer and as an INDEPENDENT (a giant amongst his riding). Chuck gained suport from ALL spectrums of the voters from the left to the right. With his loss, the voters will turn to its natural tendencies and the riding will be represented by the very capable Penny Priddy of the NDP.
07 01 06 M. Lunn
This was Chuck Cadman's riding not a Conservative won. Just look at the last provincial election where the NDP trounced the right leaning BC Liberals. While one must be careful about comparing provincial to federal elections, most BC NDP voters who don't vote NDP federally go Liberal federally. Besides any provincial NDP votes they pick-up, will be more than offset by BC Liberal votes going Liberal federally. The only place large numbers go NDP provincially and Conservative federally is the Interior, not the Lower Mainland. This is also I believe one of the poorest ridings in BC, and contrary to the earlier post, the Conservatives are strongest amongst the middle class, while trail the Liberals amongst the wealthy and are in third amongst the poor. This includes Whalley, which is like Surrey's version of the Downtown Eastside. Add to the fact Chuck Cadman's widow, Donna Cadman endorsed Penny Priddy so this should have a major impact. I would say Cadman's votes will more of less split 1/3 each between each of the major parties.
07 01 06 Fabian B
This is one of the few sure NDP gains in BC's Lower Mainland. Penny Priddy was extremely popular as a BC Minister of Health and as a Surrey City Councillor from 2002-2005. She will carry this riding easily. Voters here supported the Conservatives in 1997 and 2000 partly because of Chuck Cadman but now that he has left the scene and his wife has endorsed Priddy, it is a definite NDP gain.
However, I am surprised by the number of Conservative supporters who are actually putting out David Matta signs on their lawns in this predominantly pro-NDP Blue Collar riding although they are greatly outnumbered by NDP Priddy signs. I can't recall seeing a single Liberal sign for Liberal Surjit Kooner on private property. This may suggest that when the Election results come out on January 23, the NDP will be way ahead here while the Conservatives will be in second place.
05 01 06 Fabian B
I'm a Conservative voter who favours tougher laws on crime like Cadman but I must diasgree with A-Diddle-Biddle. Priddy is very popular in most of and this riding is tailor ruited for her. It has a solid Blue Colllar core of NDP supporters. Priddy easily won a seat on Surrey City Council in 2002 and will easily win here. Dona Cadman's support only solidifies her support.
BTW, Surrey North is not a Conservative stronghold--it was a Chuck Cadman stronghold. And many voters were peeved off at the fact that Cadman lost his Conservative Party nomination in 2004 to an Indo-Canadian who flooded the riding's office with his supporters at the last minute.
05 01 06 David D. Anber
This riding will go Conservative. Although Cadman was a "constituency man" he was always a Reformer, then Alliance member, and would have been a victorious Conservative had the events surrounding his nomination in '04 not occurred.
Let's say that in '04, One-Third of Cadman's support were Harper-unfriendly votes (which is a stretch to say the least), and let's say that all of those votes would go to the NDP (also a stretch), that adds five thousand votes to the NDP member for roughly 13,000.
The remaining Cadman votes will go Tory and add that to the Tory votes in 04. Simple math, that's the ballgame.
Of course I agree, it's not THAT simple, Cadman's appeal won't be here this time nor will his local organization. But this will more than be offset by the improved Tory organization this time around, plus a better campaign and higher national numbers.
Prediction: Conservatives to clear 15,000 votes in this riding this election and will simply be unbeatable in such a case.
04 01 06 A-Diddle-Biddle
This riding may be working class, but look no further than neighboring ridings that are both poorer and richer that consistently elect Reform / Alliance / Conservatives. The numbers speak for themselves: in the last election 15,000 voted for a tough on crime former Reformer called Cadman, another 4,000 supported the Conservative party. Even if the Liberals totally collapse (as is widely expected) and every vote goes to the NDP, the conservatives will only have to retain 75% of their base to hold this riding. Can the conservatives hold 75%? Seeing as much of Cadman's constituency was the law and order vote who had no aversion to voting Reform, I think it's likely. Look for a Conservative pick up here, but don't look for a cake walk.
13 12 05 Devin Johnston
Priddy is a star candidate for the NDP. The New Democrats were the only party on the radar when Cadman ran last election as an independent. She is a savvy political veteran and a lock to win this election.
13 12 05 love, sydney
Working class riding, strong votes for populist candidate in recent elections. Among the names up for election this time, Priddy and her party are a strong fit for this riding, and it will win by a comfortable margin. The Tories will poll 2nd best with a resurgence of sorts.
09 12 05 Matt
This is a safe NDP seat. Penny Priddy is a very high profile candidate, especially in the indo Canadian community. The two provincial constituencies that make up this riding went massively NDP in the provincial election. This is a low income, working class riding that has been held by the NDP in the past. The NDP finished about ten percent ahead of both the Liberals and Conservatives in 2004, and would have been in contention for the riding if not for the Chuck Cadman series of events. Since that time, the NDP has gained about 10 points on the Conservatives in BC polls. To boot, Dona Cadman is good friends with Priddy and has agreed to support her election bid.
08 12 05 DsW
Penny Priddy got the endorsement from Donna Cadman, so coupled with the NDP's relatively strong finish last time and their good position province-wide in the polls, she should take the riding.
08 12 05 Dude
In today's (December 8th) Globe and Mail, Penny Priddy picked up the endorsement of Cadman's widow.
This with a strong NDP showing in all the provincial ridings that make up Surrey North, a strong federal history in the riding, a high profile candidate, stronger polls in BC for the NDP, make it time to put this one in the NDP column.
Priddy will win for sure.
08 12 05 Mike D
As a follow-up to my last post, note todays Globe and Mail article on Penny Priddy and how Mrs. Cadman is endorsing her. This is one seat that's pretty much wrapped up and delivered to the NDP.
08 12 05 Mark R.
The latest news in this riding is the front page story in the Globe and Mail about the similarities of character of the late Chuck Cadman and the NDP candidate Penny Priddy. The NDP already have momentum in BC and with a high profile candidate such as Penny, plus the media attention and the fact that this riding was NDP with Jim Karpoff in 1988, all bode well for the NDP. I don't see how the Liberals or Conservatives can win this riding. If you distribute Mr. Cadman's votes evenly between the 3 major parties, the NDP candidate would have won back then, (2004 result divided by 3 and then added back to each of the 3 major parties raw vote would have yielded 13,342 for the NDP, 10,443 for the Liberals and 8,370 for the Conservatives. Conservative and Liberal polling numbers in BC would have to go up dramatically to stop the NDP. My bet is on Penny going to Ottawa.
08 12 05 m.b.
As one previous poster had said, Donna Cadman's nomination will determine the winner. And Donna Cadman has endorsed Penny Priddy, the NDP candidate, in this election. Given the fact the NDP were strong in this riding already, Cadman's endorsement puts them over the top now. NDP win for sure here.
08 12 05 watcher
Okay let me elaborate on my last post. Yes I'm still absolutely humiliated that Dona Cadman endorsed Penny Priddy. While this gives the NDP an advantage, the Conservatives can still question the credibility of Priddy's promise that she will be "right-of center" on crime. On non-crime related issues, I think Matta made a smart move by supporting a second hospital for Surrey, which will get him at least a few of the more leftist votes. These are the kinds of things that Matta can work with.
Having outlined some silver lining for the Conservatives, I will reiterate my opinion that the NDP still has the advantage. Dona Cadman's endorsement is Dona Cadman's endorsement and it's an advantage that will make things difficult for the Conservatives.
07 12 05 JC
This is a win for the New Democratic Party, Dona Cadman (Chuck's widow) has endorsed them and that endorsement is going to hold a lot of sway, People in this riding loved Chuck Cadman and Penny Priddy is going to be the new M.P. in this area.
06 12 05 EE
Donna Cadman, Chuck's widow, backed the NDP on "Politics Today". The NDP seemed to be focused on this seat, and it is area that has back the NDP in the past.
Penny Pridy, former cabinet minister, is running for the NDP. She worked in municipal politics and is relatively popular in the area following her deafeat in 2001. Seems as reasonable a prediction as any, at this point.
10 12 05 quasar
This is a Conservative stronghold. The NDP will not win here. The only reason the Conservatives did not win here last time is because Chuck Cadman was a popular MP and a former Conservative, and they know his platform is more or less rather right wing. I expect the constituents to return to their Tory roots and so I will call this a win for Matta with about 22 000 votes.
05 12 05 John A. Roald
As another individual pointed out, there is a strong focus by the NDP on this riding. It will be hotly contested, no doubt, but Penny Priddy has the backing of many people in the Indian community and that will be crucial to getting the vote out. Minor NDP victory here.
29 11 05 TL
Conservatives will pick this one up. This is a city wanting to clean up, those who defend the needle-exchange like Penny Priddy, are the one's that will lose. Only a few people support this program, but people want to see it go overall. This riding looks to a strong party offering them something better then they had before. Cadman did well as the Tory here, and people will try their luck with David Matta, the Tory candidate.
26 11 05 Mike D
What I hear from my BC NDP connections is this is the number one NDP target in the Lower Mainland, and in the top 3 for the province. Penny Priddy is clearly the leader of the pack winning name recognition hands-down in an area with all the right NDP demographics. Cadman's vote will scatter all over the map. Slam dunk for the NDP.
24 11 05 watcher
After watching the Surrey mayoral election unfold, I will predict that whoever ends up being the MP for Surrey North will be the one who received endorsement from Dona Cadman. Even though Dona Cadman isn't running, she's still fairly active on all levels of politics.
So who will Dona Cadman endorse? My current analysis is as follows:
During Chuck Cadman's funeral, Paul Martin vowed that he will pass two of Chuck Cadman's private member bills on auto crime and street racing. The introduction of bill C-64 and C-65 was supposed to do just that, but after reviewing the wording of C-64 and C-65, Dona Cadman told a certain MP that "it would create Mickey Mouse legislation that would protect the criminals". Dane Minor, former campaign manager for Chuck Cadman, also criticized the bill on auto crimes, but that's besides the point. Apparently, Justice Minister Irwin Colter's excuse for watering down the bills was that he had to make the bills compatible with the Charter, which was something that Cadman already took care of. Yet the Liberals still watered the bills down for some unknown reason.
And so this MP that Dona Cadman communicated with ultimately took this issue to Parliament. Guess who that MP was? Mark Warawa! And you thought Warawa had an inherent trouble of reaching out to political moderates? Ha!
Anyway, given all these developments, I don't think Dona Cadman will support any Liberal candidate. And as for the NDP... well, telling THEM to get tough on crime is like... okay you get idea. Right now both C-64 and C-65 are in their second readings and no one outside the Conservative Party has voted against it.
So, it seems like, despite some past conflicts, the party that can best pass on the legacies of Chuck Cadman is still the Conservative Party. Dave Matta finally started campaigning and seems like a decent candidate in his own right, so I think he will, at some point during the campaigns, receive endorsement from Dona Cadman.
I thought the Conservatives screwed up big time with the most spectacular mis-nomination of 2004, but it seems like the Liberals have outdone the Conservatives by squandering every last bit of goodwill from Chuck Cadman. They just took advantage of Cadman's budgetary vote, which was a genuine endeavor to serve his constituents, and offered absolutely nothing in return. That the BQ and NDP played along shows that they don't really care about Chuck Cadman either. Dona Cadman will not forget this, and, in all likelyhood, NEITHER WILL SURREY NORTH!
14 11 05 Mark R.
Jim Karpoff represented this area until the Reform sweep in 1993. The federal NDP is back in BC, bolstered by a very strong showing in the recent provincial election. I agree with the previous poster that this area is a working class part of Surrey and has a history of voting NDP. Mr. Cadman, god rest his soul, was a respected and hard working MP and would have been elected under any party affiliation. Unless his widow runs, I can see an NDP MP going to Ottawa.
03 10 05 watcher
This is a riding that depends a lot on the candidates, and as the Liberals and NDP aren't done with their own nominations, it's difficult to tell what will happen. The Conservative candidate, Dave Matta, is pretty much a rookie, but can probably pass off as a "compassionate conservative". He hasn't spoken much though; I don't know if that's out of caution or something else.
It seems like if either the NDP or the Liberals push out strong candidates, Matta will be toast. If not, it would be a somewhat tight race. I suspect, though, that by representing the party that caused Chuck Cadman some grief, anyone representing CPC will have lost at least some goodwill from the Surrey North voters.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
Contrary to the earlier post, this is not a strong Conservative riding. This is working class area that voted Reform/Alliance due to their populist appeal as well as the fact Chuck Cadman was extremely popular due to his tough on crime stances in a riding with a high crime rate. This went NDP in 1988 when Surrey was split into two ridings and has gone NDP in every provincial election since 1986 (besides the 2001 wipeout) when Surrey was split into three ridings from one two member riding. This only went Conservative provicially and federally when Surrey was one riding and included the more affluent and Conservative South. In the last provincial election, the NDP took both Surrey-Whalley and Surrey-Green Timbers in a landslide. Now the NDP certainly won't get 55% or 60%, but the Conservatives will get less than what the BC liberals did, which was 30% and 31% since the BC Liberals got a greater share of the popular vote in every other Lower Mainland riding except Delta South where there was an Independent Conservative running. Had Chuck Cadman run as Conservative he would have held this riding due to his own personal popularity. In fact Chuck Cadman could have run under any party banner and won.
09 09 05
This is traditonally Conservative riding. Chuck Cadman, at the time, was the Alliance MP for this riding, until he ran as an independent (there was some confusion with the Conservative riding association). After Cadman's unfortunate passing, the majority of the constituents will convert back to their conservative roots. I think it's ridiculous to say the NDP will here just because they (barely) placed 2nd place in votes. Instead, one has to observe the demographics of this riding. I say paint this riding blue.
20 07 05 M. Lunn
Had Chuck Cadman not died of Cancer, he certainly would have held this riding as an Independent since he was popular amongst people of all political stripes. But since people will vote along partisan lines as opposed to individual candidates this time around, this will likely go NDP, witness how well the NDP did here provincially. Although I don't expect them to crack the 50% mark and maybe not even the 40% mark like they did provincially. The only possibility of this going Conservative or Independent is if Chuck Cadman's wife runs and then I think she can win this riding.
12 07 05 Bear and Ape
Very sad news about the passing of Chuck Cadman. He had become something of a hero to his constituents and Canadians as a whole for listening to his voters and actually representing them (and not some party's interests). This riding would have been his for which ever party he ran for or as an independant. Now this riding is a clear 3-way race between the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP. Look at the election results for ALL the neighbouring ridings and you will see that in all of them, each of the parties could have taken them. There is no reason why (at least no reason why NOW) Surry North would be any different from them. This riding (and other Vancouver suburban ridings) will all be interesting to watch. The one minor prediction we have at the moment is that the Conservatives are probably the weakest of the 3 parties. Too many Bible-thumpers being nominated and both Grewals looking tainted isn't helping their cause. Never the less, with a good candidate and the right organization they could still easily take it.
11 07 05 Craig
Chuck Cadman's unfortunate passing has changed everything in this riding. This now becomes a 3-way race, with the Conservatives having a slight lead in this suddenly open seat. However, the NDP will want this to strengthen their caucus and the Liberals to counter potential losses in central Canada. My guess is that the Cadman votes will go about 55% to the Conservatives, 25% to the Liberals, 15% to the NDP and 5% to other candidates or staying at home. Predicted results: CPC 35%, NDP 32%, LIB 28%, GRN 3%, others 2%. Too early to tell how things will turn out.
06 06 05 hatman
Well, I know which candidate will win, but this prediction will be based on which party. Of course, I am talking about Chuck Cadman. The man must be a hero to the riding, because he listened to them and single handedly changed history based on their opinions. Because he went against the tories when he made that historic vote, I can’t see them wanting him on board, and therefore he will remain as an independent, and will get re-elected with an even larger % of the vote.
28 05 05 A. Vancouverite
I think it's pretty clear that Mr.Cadman will win again. If he didn't run, this would likely go NDP, as they mopped the floor with the Liberals in the provincial election, and the demographics are favourable to them. That being said Mr.Cadman, first elected as part of the Reform wave of 93', has managed to hold on to much of the protest vote that sees him as a "regular" guy, who actually cares about what his constituents think. The race won't even be close unless the NDP picks someone with a similar profile, maybe a Judy Villeneuve, Penny Priddy or Bob Bose (local councillors -- these are shots in the dark btw there's no info saying that they'd even want to run although Villeneuve did run for the NDP in 97'), but even they'd be hard pressed to pull off an upset.
21 05 05 JC
It looks like Cadman is going to have to run as an independent, the conservatives have nominated a Candidate who stands no chance against Cadman. Cadman will win if he runs again, if not, this riding could be a 3 way race.
18 05 05 Bear and Ape
Cadman announced on CBC Politics today that he will run as an independant in the next election (whenever that will be). He won the riding easily last year, he will win it easily again.
08 05 05 Cornpop
This riding is Cadman's if he wants it. If he decides not to run again, I would guess it would go NDP if Karpoff runs again. A former MP for this riding, he has name recognition here, something that no other candidate does. Furthermore, the Liberal organization is too weak in this riding to overcome the NDP, but in no way is this riding going Tory.
08 05 05 BLJ
Just to reinforce the earlier Mustel Group survey results, Compas also released a May 5 poll of voting intentions with results as follows: Cadman - 43%, NDP - 24%, Liberal - 22%, CPC - 10%, Other - 2%. In addition, Cadman had a 75% positive performance score, the highest score ever achieved by a politician in a Compas survey. (300 sample size, 5.8% error margin)
IND 04 05 05 JC
Of Course Cadman will win if he runs, I'm putting him under other because that's where he is currently, if it changes to Conservative he'll get it.
IND 04 05 05 BLJ
A Mustel Group poll of 605 Surrey North residents conducted during the last week of April had the following results: Cadman - 45%, NDP - 26%, Liberal - 20%, CPC - 6%.
This is Cadman's seat as long as he wants it.
03 05 05 M. Lunn
A recent Mustel poll shows Chuck Cadman has 45% support, which is almost identical to last time around. If he runs as an Independent, he should hold his riding. However, if he runs as a Conservative he may lose it, since this is traditionally a left leaning riding and only voted Reform/Alliance due to Chuck Cadman's popularity and the fact the Reform/Alliance had no chance of forming government. When Chuck Cadman ran as an independent, people were voting for only Chuck Cadman who most residents like, but if he ran under the conservative banner, they would also be voting indirectly for Stephen Harper who isn't well liked here.
02 05 05 BrianJA
Given Cadman's health, I'm not certain if he'll be running again. And, if he does run, if he'll be running as an Independant again or if he'll be seeking the Conservative nomination. Either way, I'm going to put Surrey North in the NDP column right now. It's a working-class riding with some issues the NDP have taken to targetting lately, so it's the NDP's if they work hard enough for it. Prediction: If Cadman runs again, the NDP will win it by less than 500 votes. If Cadman doesn't run, the NDP will win it with more than 1000 votes.
02 05 05 TC
This riding is an unusual case, We know who will win the riding but we do not know which party will he represent. Chuck Cadman has been offered backing by the previous Conservative Candidate Jasbir Cheema. The door is also open for Cadman to run without a nomination challenge for the Conservatives.
If Cadman runs as an Independent I expect he will win as an Independent.
Of course if chuck Cadman does not run at all expect this riding to go Conservative.

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