2:23 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
5:23 PM 12/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Vancouver Centre
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Heathcliff Dionysus Campbell
John Clarke
Green Party/Parti Vert
Jared Evans
Tony Fogarassy
Hedy Fry
Christian Heritage
Joe Pal
Svend Robinson

Hon. Hedy Fry

2004 Result:
Hedy Fry
Kennedy Stewart
Gary Mitchell
Robbie Mattu
John Clarke
Joe Pal
Alexander Frei
Kimball Cariou

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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18 01 06 Seth
This riding isn't only West End/Yaletown. Don't underestimate the Fairview/Kitsilano vote. The southern part of this riding is part of Vancouver-Fairview provincially. All the pollsters expected Vancouver-Fairview to go BC Liberal. But the Kits/Fairview area produced enough NDP voters to trump all of Liberal-voting Shaugnessy and send an NDP MLA to Victoria. False Creek South is full of co-ops with Section 95 subsidy problems, and will vote NDP. With the Liberals tanking in the national polls and the Conservatives on the rise since the Vancouver-Centre poll was taken, expect Svend to come up the middle and pull off an upset. Svend over Hedy by 800 votes.
18 01 06 Bear and Ape
We are calling this riding for Hedy, but we feel that it will be substantially closer than some are predicting, looking almost like a three-horse race. The demographics of places like the west end and along False Creek/Yaletown seem like those that would support a Progressive Conservative party and would not necessarily like the NDP. That is a factor against Svend but something that helps Tony now that the CPC are growing in popularity. Truth is, the NDP are not going to gain more support here than they did last time, despite of (because of?) Svend. Liberals are bleeding and that will in all probably got CPC. Watch for the numbers to equalize but Hedy edge out the others.
17 01 06 Fabian B
A recent Ming Pao poll this January stated that 30% of Chinese voters would vote equally for the Liberals and Conservatives. The NDP support numbers is not stated. In 2004, Ming Pao reported that 77% of Chinese voters went Liberal versus only 16% CPC. Given the fall in Chinese support for the Liberals, the large Chinese population in the higher income areas of this riding like Coal Harbour, and the poor national Liberal campaign, Svend may just take Vancouver Centre for the NDP. Conservative Tony Fogarassy may gain votes from Hedy Fry but not enough to win here, I suspect. I doubt PM Martin's late plea in Vancouver on Monday for soft NDP voters to vote "strategically"--ie: Liberal--will work this time. He is much too discredited with voters over his various flip flops on the Chinese Head Tax, the 'Democracy Deficit' and his approval of 12 over the top Grit Attack Ads to be taken seriously by most non-Liberal voters. I suspect many Liberal supporters defecting to Svend and Fogarassy.
16 01 06 Zinc Alloy
One man, Jim Deva, pointing out the obvious ("people who are concerned about reducing the size of government and taxes" are likely to be attracted to Harper) should not be enough to give hope to Conservative supporters. Mr Seeman is correct, of course, there may be a surprise on election night... but that would be a victory by Robinson. And, who knows, the play Layton has begun making for Liberal votes may just do it. Not likely, but certainly possible.
16 01 06 MS London
It's hard to imagine a guy who won seven straight elections in a riding not far from V-C could lose here, regardless of the national dynamics.
16 01 06
The riding will go liberal. If the below poster had quoted the entire article, most of the people interviewed were going to vote liberal so it was reported in the Sun.
15 01 06 Bob Seeman
Vancouver Sun - Saturday, Jan 14, 2006 - Kerry Gold Column, page A4.
"Jim Deva, owner of [Gay and Lesbian] Little Sister's Book Store on Davie and Svend supporter says that [Conservative Fogarassy] 'is gaining momentum [and] of course we're an extremely diverse community and different things twig us and move us but for people who are concerned about reducing the size of government and taxes, [Fogarassy] is their man, no matter what their sexual orientation is.' "
Watch for the surprise of election night.
15 01 06 Vote NDP
As pathetic as Hedy Fry may be, as much as I may personally like Svend Robinson, and as badly as the Liberals may be doing in most of Canada, they are not doing all that badly in B.C. and internal polls are showing that Fry will hold on by a more comfortable margin than I would have ever expected.
Unless the Liberal meltdown starts hitting B.C. in earnest and the NDP reaps some of the fallout, don't expect Svend to take this riding.
14 01 06 expat
Folks who are calling this one for Hedy based on a relatively small sample poll are missing how dynamic this race is. With the national Liberal campaign imploding and the NPD vote holding steady, the closeness of the race last time, a surprisingly strong Conservative candidate (although no where close to being in contention to win), and two incredibly well known candidates in the race, this race is going down to the wire.
My gut says that Svend will win this in the end - Liberals are going to be going into election day demoralised and hard to energise because of the direction of the national campaign, while New Democratic voters are much more likely to mobilise and vote - because of the Harper threat and because they feel their votes will make a different. If that is the dynamic next Monday, I suspect that Svend Robinson will be back in Parliament.
12 01 05 David
Im not so sure now. Lastnite at the all candidates meeting Svend was getting some bashing from the crowd over the ring and as was Hedy over being hard to get a hold of. They both were the strongest the Green guy did well as well the Conservative Tony did poorly I thought and had short speeches even the Marijuana Party guy did better!
11 01 06 Zinc Alloy
Given the result of the Mustel Group poll, I think it may be time to give this riding to the Liberals. A great shame for the NDP. Kennedy Stewart, their candidate in the 2004 election, could have won this riding. Obviously the matter of the ring still resonates (no pun intended) in voters minds... and who can blame them. Many NDP supporters, such as myself, felt they had to hold their noses on this one. I'm keeping my window signs up... but, really, it's over.
10 01 06 scott
The latest polling I saw, for van center was 39.1% for Hedy and 33.3% for Svend, with Fogarassy improving to 20.1%... If 1000 people change from Liberal to Conservative and and another 1000 from Liberal to NDP, then it's neck and neck. The conservatives are the NDP's best hope here. Fogarassy has been steadily improving..Also some of the Green support usually goes back to the NDP on polling day.
Liberals/20,551 Conservatives/10,541 NDP/17,552 Green 4,224
09 01 06 M. Lunn
After seeing the Mustel poll, I think Hedy Fry will win this again. While a lot can change in 2 weeks 8 points is a lot to overcome and I really see little momentum with the NDP nor will a collapse of the Conservatives like we saw last time around help the NDP either should it happen. Mustel Poll was the closest to the correct outcome in the last provincial election, so they are pretty accurate.
08 01 06 BLJ
Just released Mustel Group poll with a 500 sample size and 4.5% margin of error - Liberal - 41%, NDP - 33%, Conservative - 19%, Green - 7% - almost a mirror image of the 2004 result.
08 01 06 David M.
mustel polled van-centre here over the last 3 days, and with a sample size of 500 people, they gave hedy an 8 point lead (lib-41/ndp-33/cpc-19). notes on the poll: -/+4.5, 19/20 etc, with a no-prompt follow up question on 'why not svend?' finding 25% named the ring or trust/integrity generally. unfortunately, this corroborates what i've been getting from van-centre people over the last weeks and a half: ndp voters who really don't want to volunteer/vote for svend, and so forth.
i do think that it'll tighten up before election day, and i think that the conservatives will probably score more in the neighborhood of 25% of the vote, but even with a great ndp gotv, i do think that hedy will edge svend out by at least 2000 votes. sadly.
08 01 06 Jeremy
Things aren't looking good for Svend, as the Province reports in a poll, "Fry had 41 per cent support among decided voters, compared to 33 per cent for New Democrat Robinson and 19 per cent for Tony Fogarassy, the Conservative candidate", and noting that stealing the ring seems to be hurting his chances. http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/story.html?id=fe9e68f1-d1fc-415a-afec-78648959357b
08 01 06 watcher
From the Province:
"Liberal incumbent Hedy Fry, the riding's MP since 1992, is in the lead in a Mustel Group Poll commissioned by The Province.
Fry had 41 per cent support among decided voters, compared to 33 per cent for New Democrat Robinson and 19 per cent for Tony Fogarassy, the Conservative candidate. Jared Evans of the Green Party had seven per cent; four per cent cited "other" and there were seven per cent undecided."
This poll is based on a sample of 500 eligible voters in Vancouver Center, which is a very large sample for one single federal riding.
Barring dramatic fluctuations, Fry should win, although I think the winning margin will be less than 8%. I don't know how voters make up their minds, but apparently this is what they've decided.
07 01 06 Fabian B
I don't know who will win it though I suspect Hedy has the incumbency advantage. The NDP's Svend Robinson may gain votes from the Green candidate offering to bow out but many Green supporters aren't necessarily NDP supporters as the Media assumes. Some are just protest voters who won't vote if there isn't a Green candidate while others may migrate to the NDP and Liberals in equal numbers.
As Miles Lunn notes, voters in Coal Harbour won't vote NDP while Tony Fogarassy of the Conservatives has admitted to the Province that he can't win here. If the NDP can pick up steam in BC as they have in Vancouver Island, however, Svend may just barely win it. Other than that, Hedy should win again. So many people have predicted Hedy's demise in 2000 and 2004 before but she keeps winning again and again thanks to a loyal core of Liberal supporters.
07 01 06 bas
Despite clicking on "no opinion", opinions I have ... but there is little about touring Vancouver Centre that gives away how election night will unfold. There is (heavens alone knows why!) obviously a strong base for Hedy Fry here; there is strong support for Svend Robinson - how the Conservative vote does will tell the tale. Keeping this in "too close to call" right up until about 2 hours into the returns after the polls close will be about right...
06 01 06 Zinc Alloy
Tony Fogarassy has been running a good campaign, as has Stephen Harper. Unfortunately for Mr Fogarassy, very few voters believe there is a place for a Red Tory in this new Conservative party. Telling that Kim Campbell's support attracted nothing in the way of attention. We dismiss her still. In any case, the former PM's words bring Mr Fogarassy no votes; indeed, he may have cost a few. The battle here is between Fry and Robinson - and is, at this date, too close to call.
05 01 06 Aric H
A couple of other points here that haven't really been mentioned:
1. Some perspective on "beating the Prime Minister". The fact that Hedy Fry beat Kim Campbell in 1993 isn't really that much of an accomplishment - all the Conservatives in the country were defeated except for two! That means that almost anyone would have beaten the PC MP in Vancouver Centre that year.
2. I agree that the "crosses burning" remark is the least of Hedy's worries and is not much of an issue here. Her main challenge is that she is an incumbent Liberal in an election in which the most the Liberals are likely to get is a minority, and now it looks like they might lose that as well. Her vote is likely to go down in Vancouver Centre more than it did in 2004 as more people vote Conservative and possibly NDP. This may allow Svend to overtake her and get the victory that Kennedy Stewart missed out on. She will be depleted on the left and the right. Remember: in terms of the optics, this is probably the WORST election yet for Hedy Fry. In 1993, 1997 & 2000 she was voted in when the Liberals won majorities. In 2004 she was voted in when the Liberals had a decent-sized minority. Now she is running at a time when the Liberal numbers are the worst they have been during her time as an MP and when the Liberals could lose the government to the Conservatives for the first time during her political career. This makes here the most vulnerable she has ever been. She may still survive, but it won't be by much if she does.
31 12 05 M. Lunn
I live in this riding, and there is no chance that the Tories will win here. Yes Tony Fogarassy is moderate and has many likeable aspects to him, but most people here whether the wealthy condo owners in Yaletown and Coal Harbour who will go Liberal to the Gay Village on Davie who will lean NDP, they are almost all terrified of Harper becoming prime-minister. The only reason the Progressive Conservatives won in the past here was they focused solely on economic issues back in the 80s, much like the BC Liberals do today who did narrowly win Vancouver-Burrard. Until the party gets a clue that social conservatism has no support in urban ridings they will continue to be shut out of Vancouver proper and win fewer and fewer suburbs in each subsequent election.
02 01 06 Mike Fortini
In reality, the burning cross thing was such a long time ago and I think there have been at least two elections before this one where this never played out. At the end of the day, Hedy Fry is an active MP in Ottawa and don't forget, she is the one who knocked off Kim Campbell. Furthermore, when was the last time that an MP or even candidate that jumped ridings, unless they were the leader, jumped ridings and won.
It may be closer than last time, but Hedy is going to win. Time to stop being coy, and move this riding into the liberal column.
01 01 06 Seth
Nobody has mentioned the significance of the Green vote yet. The Green Party picked up 10% of the vote in this riding last time. But a lot of the Green membership has jumped ship because of the new leader Jim Harris (a former Tory). My guess is that a lot of the Green vote will now go to Svend. Svend has always been a bit of a rebel even in his own party, and that will appeal to the disenfranchised former Green voters. I can't see these voters flocking to the CPC or the Liberals. Svend's name recognition alone will help pull votes away from the Libs, which Kennedy Stewart couldn't do last time. I predict it'll be close, but Svend will come out on top by 500-1,000 votes.
30 12 05 A Vancouverite
Hedy and her burning crosses, Svend and that diamond ring, Fogarassy and...? Foagrassy is the only "innocent" candidate of the three, a lawyer, and, planting his hq hip and square in a centrist/red tory-type area, he should not be counted out. Although this is definitely an up hill battle for him, anyone here who DOES predict a Tory riding is definitely not "sniffing Fry's nail polish." I mean, c'mon! Svend is burdened because he stole the diamond ring and is hiding behind the "I'm mentally ill" cover-up. A lot of people won't vote for him just for that. Fry is burdened by her radical and immature comments. And Fogarassy? He's got nothing to lose; only more to gain. Sure, Harper's running a good campaign, but he's still got the social-conservative factor to him. If Fogarassy, who supports SSM, campaigns beyond the majority of the Conservative view, and campaigns more as an fiscal conservative independant than as Harper's first man, he will gain ground. Give this guy a chance; he's a running a strong campaign and hasn't a stolen a ring and let his mouth lose.
29 12 05 Aric H
This riding has now been profiled in the CPAC series. In the riding profile currently airing on CPAC, Kim Campbell is interviewed giving her endorsement to Fogarassy. I don't think she will have much effect or help him to win the riding, but if more people vote for the Conservative it will probably help Svend by taking Liberal votes away from Fry.
29 12 05 MH
This is not my area, although several friends live in Vancouver Centre, so I won't presume to say this will go Liberal or NDP, although at the moment the riding seems to be Hedy Fry's to lose. I will predict that it won't go Conservative, and this in spite of the narrow victories that Pat Carney and Kim Campbell registered here in 1980, 1984 and 1988. By deciding to appease the bigots in his party with the promise of re-opening the issue of same-sex marriage, Stephen Harper kissed goodbye to Toronto Centre and Vancouver Centre. It seems unlikely that this troubled him much.
28 12 05 Bill
OK, so we voters have two brands of nutcase to choose from here in Vancouver Centre. Svend has never been the most balanced individual but neither has Hedy, really. My hope is for Svend, just for sheer entertainment value, but I've got to give this one to Hedy. Vancouver Centre has seen an influx of wealthy condo owners over the last few years. They will tend to vote Liberal, even the young ones. Svend is a talented, hard-working political journeyman, and he might keep it close, but I'd be surprized if he can actually pull off a win.
25 12 05 watcher
It should be noted that municipal elections don't tell much about federal elections. In late 2002 Larry Campbell & COPE won the civic election in a record voter turnout, and in June 2004, 4 out of 5 federal ridings in Vancouver are still Liberal! How perplexing!
With the NPA actually having come back to power on November 19, 2005, I can't see how there would be more NDP votes now. The most you can say about this riding is that there are probably many soft voters who sway between Liberal and NDP (and last time, they opted Liberal, probably because of the attack ads). Any NDP gains here would be from Svend and only Svend.
Tony Fogarassy, as I said before, will be the kingmaker here. Although I don't rule out a win for him, his odds are significantly less than his rivals. He has a lot of grounds to make up.
23 12 05 Aric H
Maclean's may be telling people not to vote for Svend but the fact that he made the front cover shows that he is still a big name in Canadian politics. What Maclean's thinks isn't likely to have a major impact in this election. What is true is that there are obviously some people who are not going to buy his version of the ring incident story, but he only needs to pull a couple thousand votes away from Hedy Fry to win this riding and I think that is doable. When we see the B.C. numbers in January it may give us an idea of which way this race is going.
22 12 05 Ben
Do we have to pick a winner in this riding? While I think all of us in BC would come a lot closer to meeting our Kyoto targets if the hot air from Fry and Robinson was bottled and burried deep under the ocean floor I have to pick Fry to hold on to this riding. Robinson's bizarre exit from politics in 2004 has not been forgotten and while the liberals are a scandal-plagued bunch Fry's personal ethics are head and shoulder pads above Robinson's.
Oh and anyone picking the Conservatives to win here has clearly been sniffing Dr. Fry's nail polish remover
20 12 05
And then McLeans published it's editorial policy on the cover. Fry would have won this anyway, but now, with this publicity and the demand to "Svend Him Packing", there is not as much hope for the would be NDP comeback kid.
18 12 05 Observer
Only in wacky BC could there be a race between the likes of Hedy "Crosses Burning in Prince George" and Svend "My hiking accident made me steal the ring" Robinson. For political junkies, this is almost too good to be true. Svend will come through. Because he's an upstanding, honest politician? No. He will win because of brand recognition. He will win because, whereas the "ring thing" would have killed him elsewhere, things are different in Vancouver Centre. In a twisted way, this episode will help him. After the "ring thing", his face and name were everywhere. In this riding, this episode made Svend look like a victim worthy of sympathy. I'm not a supporter...I'm a realist.
18 12 05 resident
I must agree with Bob Seeman- Fogarassy is not surprisingly running a very energetic and strong campaign with a visible team of supporters. However, if he is to win this, it'll be a tough and uphill battle for him. Fogarassy is a credible candidate, and I think if he doesn't let himself covered by the two front runners- Fry and Robinson- he might be able to take this one. Provincially, this, by a few votes, went to the right-wing BC Liberals, so I sense a demographic change.
At the moment this is too close to call. I suspect a Fry re-election by a hair, but we'll just have to see how the national campaign goes.
12 12 05 MF
If Forgassy pulls a "Sam Sullivan" here he will go down in defeat. Jim Green won the polls that make up Van Center by a substantial margin, a few high-priced Yaletown condos notwithstanding. Not to mention most people in Van who vote for the NPA municipally probably vote for the federal Liberals and not the Tories (because they're centrist on economic issues, but socially liberal). Being a Tory is practically the kiss of death in the big urban ridings. At most he'll get about 20% of the vote, and probably more like 15%. It'll be very close between Svend and Hedy - and I think Svend will narrowly prevail.
In fact, class is mattering less and less in Vancouver politics. In the last election, the divide between Green and Sullivan voters was north/south not east/west. The north half is more progressive and urban in character (i.e. NDP-friendly), the south is semi-suburban and more pragmatic (read Liberal). Will this translate into something federally? We'll see.
08 12 05 Bob Seeman
This will be a close three way race. Svend gave Fogarassy a chance at winning. Svend will only take votes from Hedy.
Many conservative voters stayed home last time. This time they have a reason to get out, a particularly qualified candidate who is running a top notch campaign led by the very same people that made Kim Campbell, not only MP for the riding, but Prime Minister of Canada.
I suggest that, before you count Fogarassy out, you take a peak at the activity at Fogarassy's absolutely huge campaign headquarters smack in the middle of ritzy Yaletown at Hamilton and Nelson.
I predict that Fogarassy will do a "Sam Sullivan".
08 12 05 Victor A.
I also believe Svend is likely to pull if off but it will be a much closer race than what some Svend supporters claim. Last year's most people were predicting Kennedy Stewart to win and we all know how it ended up. The margin is slim enough for Svend to work on and to win it. Don't count Hedy yet, we all know that when it comes to the organization, it is there for her and she certainly can benefit from the gentrification and these high-rise condos many people are talking about. Svend is a well-known yet very polarizing figure, some people will actually voter to vote just to vote against him including from within the GLBT community. Unfortunately he's one of these people that is either liked or not. I don't think his accident will play a major role, but I think he'll win it by targeting the left-wing, university students as well as the anti-Globalization and anarchist movements and also the part of the GLBT community that supports him. They are large enough in this riding to give him the victory, however if Hedy works on it and focuses on the right areas within the riding, does a lot of door to door and if Martin won't have a major slip, she will make it. The provincial NDP did worse than expected in this area of Vancouver so maybe the whole process of gentrification is quicker than what I think. It will be close to the very end, my prediction at this point would be Svend by around 300 votes.
08 12 05
Consider that in 2004, NDP candidate Kennedy Stewart pulled in 17000 votes, losing to Hedy Fry's 21000. Stewart had some respectable academic and community credentials, but he was ensentially a bland non-entity.
Consider Svend Robinson. He is one of Canada's most recognized politicians. He is an icon and hero to the LGBT community, and in Van-Centre that means volunteers, dollars, and votes. I predict that if nothing else, the streets and phone lines will be PACKED with Svend's volunteers. He has a long and impressive track record of hard work at the local, national and international levels. His reputation for putting in the hard hours for his constituents is acknowledged across party and ideological lines.
Hedy held a decent majority in 2004 because of the fear of a Conservative majority. Now that everyone is a little bit more acclimatized to the minority dynamic, I think voters will take an NDP vote more seriously, especially if they get an A-list MP like Svend Robinson.
Lastly, this riding elected an NDP MLA in the Fraserview portion of the riding, very nearly elected an NDP MLA in the West End, and two thirds voted for Jim Green for mayor of Vancouver. This is good momentum. Add all these factors together, and I think Svend will prevail.
06 12 05 J. Smythe
So Svend has thrown his ring in the hat.
This will be closer than the last federal election, but Hedy Fry will hang on. It's been said on this site before (by me during the last federal election and by others during this election), but the demographics of this riding have changed significantly, and not in favour of the New Democrats. I don't think you'll find 3,000 hippie granola-eating, sandal wearing, tree hugging urban green voters in Vancouver Centre. I don't think you'll find 30 of them. They've all moved to Libby Davies' riding. The doughnut theory of Vancouver Centre (and Vancouver Burrard) has shown itself to be correct in the last two elections, and it will continue to be the case. Every poll with a view of the water will go Liberal and every poll with a view of Nelson Park will go New Democrat.
In addition, personality will play a large part among undecided voters. Hedy engenders either a love or hate response from voters; no question. However, the dislike of Sven seems to me to be more vitriolic... and perhaps for good reason. He is seen by people inside and outside his own party as an opportunist. People don't like politicians much, but they like politicians who appear to be interested in politics purely for their own aggrendizement even less. ...and of course I have not come across one Jewish person who will vote for him. Actually I haven't come across one gay person who will vote for him either. I'm sure they exist, but I don't think they exist to the extent that he believes they do. Even letters to the editor of XtraWest (the bastion of the gay left) have been running 2 to 1 against Sven.
Then there are numerous whispers among the NDP about Svend's candidacy and whether it was supported by the NDP leadership (apparently it wasn't). I was having drinks with one now high-ish profile candidate for the NDP in another federal riding this last spring when he/she was approached (for the third or so time) to run for the NDP in Vancouver Centre. This person refused on the basis that Hedy Fry was a strong MP and was a woman of colour who was generally left leaning, and that the NDP should be concentrating on taking out Conservatives. This was (only hearsay now) apparently the response given by a sitting BC NDP MP to Sven when he sought his/her support. Interestingly, word has it (more hearsay) that before Sven decided to run he sought assurances from James Moore that the "ring incident" would not be raised by the Conservative candidate, and those assurances were given (who's in bed with who, I wonder?).
Then there is the issue (which has been raised by every person who has discussed this riding with me) of the ring incident, and his plea bargain. Nobody I have spoken to believes he should have escaped without a criminal record, and nobody that I have spoken to wants a former admitted thief as an MP; bipolar or not.
05 12 05 John S.
Svend is high profile and the riding is changing demographically but not in a way that favours the NDP - it is becoming wealthier and less granola eating. Having said that, the CPC is pretty well sunk here in the heart of urban Canada after the first week. Harper's comments about cutting off government funding for drug rehab centres, slag at Larry Campbell, cracking down on possession of even small quantities of pot, anti - gay comments (and I would bet you that we'll hear soon comments from the CPC bible thumpers about how the morning after pill/birth control is a terrible sin) make the CPC's not a viable option in this neck of the woods. Where will voters turn to stop the CPC? The changing demographics will result in an even stronger liberal victory. A year from now when Svend looks back as to why he lost, he will blame the new development in Yaletown/False Creek and in Coal Harbour/North of Robson.
05 12 05 Liberty Canada
Don't Count on that Jewel thief winning. Jacko's signing of his nomination
papers makes NDP claims of integrity "ring" hollow. Might we see a Tory candidate win by coming up the middle? I'd still put my money on the "rough diamond" Headless Fry.
05 12 05 quasar
Will be extremely close on election say. Hedy is popular, but same with Svend. However, I think Svend's incident with pocketing the ring won't be forgotten, and will in be in the back of voters' minds. Robinson is also quite radical. Hedy, on the other hand, is fairly respected here and has been representing this riding since... who knows when. I don't think she will lose votes to the Tories as she is quite progressive.
Hedy wins here.
05 12 05
I predict a NDP win most young people here like them and support their policys. It has a large gay population which will not all but largely go NDP and if you take a trip through the area you can see how the NDP may win with votes from the Fairview, WestEnd, Kitsilano area and the Liberals getting the CoalHarbour and Yaletown vote and the Conservatives staying third
03 12 05 Travis Rimstead
Svend is not your typical New Democrat - he's quite radical and bucks the Party line when he feels he needs to, which is exactly what about 3,000 hippie granola-eating, sandal wearing, tree hugging urban green voters are looking for: an anti-establishment candidate. Which isn't enough to win, except that Svend is an icon in the queer community, which usually belongs to Hedy. That's probably worth another 3,000 votes to Svend, which will be more than enough to put him over the top. Add to that his legendary political status, huge name recognition, and the extraordinary number of volunteers he'll be able to recruit, and you're looking at the winner. That ring thing will only anger law-and-order-crime-as-their-top-issue folks, who were voting for the Conservatives already anyway.
03 12 05 Brent
Just came from Svend Robinson's nomination meeting--huge turnout! He mentioned in his speech that there were former Liberal voters in the room that will now be switching to the NDP, BECAUSE he is running. Hedy Fry's "fanatical core of voters" just got smaller.
At this rate, we will be seeing V.C's first ever NDP MP in a very close race....
01 12 05 Freddy Hye
Hedy Fry will be re-elected. Her "Crosses burning in Prince George" comment a few years ago did not hurt her in the last election and she has had a good local track record. Svend Robinson may be a BC political legend, but he is a thief and has admitted mental issues. The Liberals will win based on the influx of well-off young professionals who don't buy into socialism and like the middle-of-the-road approach of the Liberals.
01 12 05 love, sydney
The CPC candidate has been told to ease up on Svend and lay it to Hedy. Your theory about Svend doing the CPC a favour is right on the mark. That Svend is just off serving a slap on the wrist for a criminal offence likely will dampen his chances, but he had a terrific reputation for his work in his old constituency. Hedy has a strong base to protect her position as the incumbent, but the demographics in Van Centre is so much more complicated than it was in '93. Svend and Hedy are heading for a tough battle, and it all comes down to which will gain the more forgiving vote, and if the CPC guy can drain off any Liberal votes.
01 12 05 Tommie
This is going to be a very, very close race. However, I believe in the end Svend will take it by a hair. Aside from his close relationship with the LGBT community (Hedy may have notable connections, but as a member of this community I know that somebody who is of such a controversial minority is likely to vote for 'one of us' and somebody who is so openly pro-equal rights) and his massive political machine of hardline supporters, he has two things going for him. "Svend Robinson" is a name that is very, very well known. He will have much better name recognition than Hedy. Furthermore, Hedy has been an MP for Vancouver Centre for twelve years. Svend will benefit from the voter who goes to the ballot box and says, "Svend Robison. I've heard of him, and we need a change."
The desire for change, Svend's connection with the riding's LGBT community, his political machine and his name recognition will win him re-election to the House of Commons.
30 11 05 Politics101
I haven't talked to a provincial NDP'er who votes in this riding that is going to vote for Svend - they will vote for Hedy - she does a good job handling riding matters and has a good liaison with the powerful gay vote in this riding.
30 11 05 Bear and Ape
Hey Watcher, good theory but we have another hypothosis to your observations. We think it's fair to say that in Vancouver proper, individual voters tend to swing between NDP/Liberal or Liberal/Conservative and not NDP/Conservative as you see elsewhere in BC. If this is the case, then perhaps Tony is trying to woo those Liberal/Conservative voters to his camp and not touching Svend to allow him to weaken the Liberals from the left. Though the NDP have a solid base here, many of those voters would never vote CPC and Tony might realise that, thus not wasting time and resources. Let Svend and Hedy fight it out on the left while he takes her from the right. Just a hypothesis, but it does fit the observations.
29 11 05 Laurence Putnam
Last time, Hedy beat the NDP by just 4,000 votes running against Kennedy Stewart, a likeable and intelligent man, but a total unknown outside of academic circles. Stewart re-established a base of NDP support in the riding, and now Hedy is running against Svend Robinson. Does anybody really believe that Svend can't take at least that 2,000+1 votes away from Hedy to secure a victory? Hedy's Fried.
29 11 05
Ten years ago I would certainly have called this for the NDP. HOWEVER . . . the riding's demographics are changing and favouring the Liberals. The last provincial election was telling: this was predicted to be an NDP seat (the NDP had a resurgence in other areas in the province) but narrowly went prov. liberal (a more right wing party than the Federal Libs) even with a high profile NDP candidate against Mayencourt. Ditto the last federal election. With the new condo towers on the north side of the DT peninsula along with continued development on the Concord Pacific lands and in Yaletown, a different non - NDP demographic is moving in here in fairly large numbers which will tip the balance away from the NDP despite Svend. I predict a liberal win here as the conser. are not even in the running in this riding (they are not popular with any particular socioeconomic group here as far as I can tell).
27 11 05 watcher
The truth of the matter is, I don't think even Tony Fogarassy himself believes that he can win this seat.
I've noticed a rather peculiar pattern from what I can see in Fogarassy's campaign strategy. He's focusing all of his firepower on Hedy Fry and the Liberals and saying almost nothing about Svend and the NDP. Now, if he really believes that he can win this seat, he'd take on both the Liberals and the NDP (who are both serious contenders in this riding) wouldn't he? But he's not. Therefore, the only conclusion that I can draw is that, in a relatively tight election, a gain or loss of one seat can lead to different parties taking control of government. In this case, Liberal seats falling into NDP hands is only going to better the Conservatives' odds of taking control of government, and Tony Fogarassy is basing his campaign strategy on these concerns. He's doing everything he can do siphon off ONLY Liberal votes so that Svend might come out top. Now if Conservatives are polling at 45% or above in BC, it is of my personal opinion that Fogarassy's campaign would start going after Svend as well. Anyway, if my theory is true, then this seat is leaning towards NDP. But hey you never know. Hedy Fry has a fanatical core of supporters in Vancouver Center. This group may be small, but they are the most partisan and uncompromising Liberals you can find in Vancouver, and in tight elections, they just might tip the scales of balance.
Last but not least, there's always the possibility that Tony might siphon off too many Liberal votes and end up beating both Hedy and Svend! Hey, this is BC, where low-key grunts sometimes make surprises (e.g. Don Bell, Nathan Cullen, etc.). It's too bad that there were no Conservative surprises in BC during the 2004 election, but if there is to be a Conservative upset anywhere in BC, this riding would be a possibility.
Date 23 11 05 Forecast
This riding historically has been a three way split. The Seat of Kim Campbell, Hedy Fry, and soon to be Svend Robinson, is evidence enough that this seat goes all ways. Always a hard fought seat, resulting in lots of political capital spent on this riding.
Svend will win, he is a legend in BC politics. He was one of nine NDP MP's to hold their seat in the '93 disaster. And Why? Because he is a work horse for his constituents, and the BC electorate are aware of it.
23 11 05 M. Lunn
This will be a two way race between Hedy and Svend, not a three way race. It is true the right leaning NPA did well in Yaletown and Coal Harbour in the most recent municipal election as did the BC Liberals last provincial election. But there is a key difference here; the NPA and BC Liberals are fiscally conservative parties, but neutral on moral issues so people vote solely on economic issues, whereas federally the Conservatives are right wing on social issues, which scares even many of the wealthy condo owners in Yaletown and Coal Harbour. Finally, Vision Vancouver/COPE municipally and the NDP provincially are to the left of the federal Liberals so I don't think you can use municipal and provincial elections where they have a two party system, versus three. If the federal election were simply between the NDP and the Conservatives, then the Conservatives might have a shot, but that is not the case.
18 11 05 Matt
This riding could turn nasty and Hedy Fry might be the one forced to sling the mud in a desperate attempt to hold this seat. Svend has obvious positives (name recognition, gay community support) but also has problems - stealing a $60,000 ring plus numerous outbursts as MP. That leaves the CPC. They have Liberal scandals on their side, as well as more wealthy apartment dwellers who might be upset enough with the Liberals over Gomery to look to the CPC. Could Tony Fogarassy, a low-key, lawyer who I saw described by a newspaper as "a rose between two thorns" come up the middle and take it? I think this will be much closer three-way race than predicted...
18 11 05 J L
Hedy "Crosses are Burning" Fry vs. Svend "I stole by accident" Robinson...it's sort of like pitting Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert against each other: to me neither one has any more credibility to lose! In a sense, it could be down to who votes. The Cons (I refuse to call them Tories) finished a respectable third last time, but with the Libs likely to be bleeding some support from voter fatigue of them (which will probably go NDP...maybe), Svend should KO Hedy in a 15-round bruiser with a steel chair to each of their heads thanks to the Cons.
15 11 05 Pundit
This has always been safer Liberal turf than anywhere else in BC but due the general dislike of the Liberals, the Conservatives have often won here.
Even though the NDP has tried hard to win here, they have never succeeded.
Given that Tim Stephenson could not win here in May, I do not see Svend winning.
But will the public want Hedy back?
Conservatives could surprise here if the campaign takes off
08 11 05 Bear and Ape
No so long ago we were at a consensus that this would likely be a liberal keep, things have certainly changed. Svend running here is definitely an asset for the NDP as they will likely keep and gain the votes within the gay community (Svend, though not everyone's cup of tea, has definitely kept gay issues front and centre). Though this helps, it does not decide the election. NDP are also going to be strong with the working class in the east of the riding. What will make or break this riding is (as said earlier) the high rise condo with those awesome waterfront views. They pretty much fit the red Tory profile and could go either Liberal or CPC. CPC will gain if Hedy Fry can be painted as useless and the Liberals corrupt. If this resonates with voters then the CPC could take it, but we feel this is the most unlikely scenerio. Probably going to be a Liberal-NDP battle and the winner will be determined by how much of the Liberal vote is switched to the CPC; NDP votes are fairly solid (plus the additional gains mentioned earlier). Too close to call for now but an interesting two and a half way race.
06 11 05 MF
To the previous poster: the Conservatives will not win in the ritziest of ritzy condos, these will overwhelmingly go Liberal, given that these people are overwhelmingly liberal on social issues. Harper's views against same-sex marriage are even more pronounced now than in '04, even if the Tories increase their share of the vote in smaller cities, suburban areas and rural areas it wouldn't surprise me if they continued to plummet in urban ridings. The Tories are moving toward fringe party status in Van proper - and someone like Gary Mitchell is about as respected in the gay community as Alan Keyes is respected among African Americans!
So it's going to be an NDP-Liberal matchup, and will probably be one of the most watched races in the country. I think Svend will prevail here for the following reasons:
1) Martin's appeal to NDP voters that he shares their values won't be as convincing this time around
2) Svend is a hero in the GLBT community and will sweep the West End
3) Svend is one of Canada's greatest parliamentarians and Hedy is one of the most lackluster. Considering Hedy lost by only 8 points to an unknown New Democrat, Svend should have no problem prevailing.
Now conversely one could argue that Lorne Mayencourt won for the Liberals here provincially last time (probably the biggest surprise of the election)
and the ring incident will hurt Svend. However, despite the fact that Mayencourt won, keep in mind that it was an extremely narrow victory, his percentage of the vote was below the provincial average and Tim Stevenson's candidacy seemed to hurt the NDP in the riding. Most of the people who will vote based on the ring incident probably weren't planning on voting NDP anyway.
Prediction: 42% NDP, 37% LIB, 13% CON, 6% GRN, 2% others
28 10 05 dns
Hedy will not get as large of a portion of the gay vote as in the past in the next election when she faces Svend. The gay community will support Svend regardless of his ring incident, as he really and truly understands the issues that the gay community faces on a daily basis. Svend will sweep the west end, the rest of the riding will split between conservatives [all those living in the expensive condos with waterfront views] and the more moderate liberals
28 10 05 Brent
Now that Svend has thrown his hat into the ring, the upcoming election in this riding should prove to be very close...much closer than last time. From what I can see, Ms. Fry benefited greatly from last minute vote switching by voters frightened of Harper's Neo-cons. It would only take just over a couple thousand votes to switch back to the Dippers for them to take this seat. All of this depends, of course, on how the national campaign plays out and how successful the Liberals are at scaring left-leaning voters to go their way--if that works again. However, Ms. Fry will have a much tougher time with Svend given his high profile and begrudging respect from within the gay community--which makes up a large block of voters in the downtown area. Too early to call for now, but a possible squeaker for Svend and the Dippers!
24 10 05 John Lakota
I think this will be a minor victory for Svend Robinson. There will be many who will find his far left political beliefs hard to swallow, but that being said, he is somewhat of a 'celebrity' and name recognition. Also, I think he may be able to attract left leaning voters who may otherwise not come out. Hedy Fry has not been very relevant since making the Prince George cross burning comment, so it will be interesting to see if she can hold onto this. The NDP will be pouring quite a bit of resources into this and Svend has a following so I doubt Fry will keep this one.
23 10 05 Aric H
Well I obviously have to change my earlier submission from the Summer when people in the know had said that Svend Robinson would not be running since he has now announced that he WILL be running. The race will be close between him and Hedy Fry though as the Liberals have won this riding 4 times in a row now.
23 10 05 Mark R.
I think you have to look at BC federal elections in isolation rather than what the national or regional trends would be at any given point in time. Ms. Fry did not have the largest Liberal victory in the 2004 election, in fact, Mr. Owen won a landslide in Vancouver Quadra with 52.4% of the vote and a net margin of victory of 14,539 votes. Ms. Fry only received 40.3% of the vote and won over the NDP candidate by 4,230 votes. With the exception of Vancouver South and Vancouver Quadra, the other 6 Liberals elected in June of 2004 had an average winning margin of just 2,712 votes. Two of these Liberal candidates won with 35.5%/Keith Martin - Equimalt Juan de Fuca; and 35.0%/David Anderson - Victoria. Yes, it's true that Svend will have his work cut out for him and the demographics will work against his interests. However, this is B.C., it is Svend, the NDP will give Vancouver Centre LOTS of resources and last but not least, Ms. Fry has more baggage than Air Canada. Kennedy Stewart made a very respectable showing in '04, Svend will do better. I think that the NDP will prevail. No one expected Carole James to do so well in the provincial election. The NDP is back in B.C. whether you like them or not.
22 10 05 punditman
Well folks, I have returned after a long summer hiatus! Now let us see, Vancouver Centre that is a tough one to call. On one side, Hedy Fry is a well known MP who has served these people for 12 years, and did defeat Kim Campbell. On the other side, Svend Robinson, who is officially running in this riding now, is a well known MP. I personally do not like Svend and I hope he loses, but I will not make that the basis of my decision here. The basis for me is where the votes the Liberals lose are going. Most of this riding is a centrist riding that is liberal on fiscal issues and leans conservative on fiscal issues. If corruption plays a factor, most of the Liberal votes lost will go Conservative as those people, while skeptic about Harper, do not like the NDP's hard-left fiscal policy. Some, however, will also stay Liberal. COnsider the fact that the NDP won't get many former Liberal votes, the Conservatives aren't a real contender, and then you see that Hedy Fry will likely be re-elected.
15 10 05 Observer
Vancouver Centre has been "the strongest liberal win in the province, for more then a decade"? It wasn't even the strongest Liberal seat in Vancouver in the last election -- take a look at the results in Vancouver South and Quadra. With Hedy Fry beating a good but low profile candidate be only 4000 votes last time, she will finally have a challenger with as good, if not better, name recognition than her in Svend Robinson. She will lose.
06 10 05 Nick Boragina
Svend could barely hold on to his own riding in a good election, he won’t be able to parachute into a liberal stronghold (the strongest liberal win in the province, for more then a decade I might add) and win. I think this is all a political ploy for him, to be able to go out on an electoral defeat, rather then what he did. His electoral threat should not be taken seriously.
04 10 05 M. Lunn
Now that it looks like Svend Robinson will be running I am moving this to too close to call. According to his own internal polls the difference between him and Hedy Fry was within the margin of error. The biggest obstacle he will face is as many fiscal conservatives but social liberals turn away from the Conservatives since they cannot stomach their social conservativism, they will likely turn to the liberals as opposed to the NDP. Lets remember, this provincially did elect Lorne Mayencourt of the BC Liberals who are to the right of the federal liberals so this is not exactly a left wing riding, although there are pockets such as the West End, Cambie-Main area that are left leaning while areas like False Creek, Fairview, Yaletown, and Coal Harbour tend to be more centrist. One thing for sure is the Conservatives won't win this, in fact I predict they will get under 15% while the liberals will get in the low 40s and NDP high 30s to low 40s. Since the NDP got 42% in Vancouver-Burrard and 46% in Vancouver-Fairview and considering the provincial NDP, even when the federal one has a star candidate, always does better than their federal counterparts, I think Svend might have some difficulty.
03 10 05
The last poll in Vancouver Center actually indicated that Svend and Fry are at a statistical tie. As they're both radical political shock jocks, both of them are capable of making a wrong move and undoing their campaign. I do, however, think that Hedy Fry has more loose ends to tie up than Svend. Besides, the general sentiment seems to be that Fry has never been as successful a political shock jock as Svend.
Oh and Tony Fogarassy is probably wallowing in his tears or something. he put his law business on hold just to take up the race in Vancouver Center. Of course, that was way before Svend announced his candidacy. Fogarassy really could've been used in another riding or something.
02 10 05 BrianJA
With the news out today that Svend will, most likely, be running for the NDP in this riding, I'm willing to call it 100% for the NDP right now. Despite the fact that this riding hasn't been held by a social democratic party since 1949, Svend Robinson is Svend Robinson and there's no way he can lose here.
01 10 05 JFB
Avec le retour de Svend Robinson dans cette circonscription, je crois que ce sera une lutte très serrée avec le PLC. À terme, on assistera à une courte victoire du NPD.
01 10 05 Mike D
Svend...enough said.
20 07 05 M. Lunn
Considering that Lorne Mayencourt won his riding provincially albeit narrowly while the other candidate Gregor Robertson only won since he is a moderate in the provincial NDP, I think Hedy Fry will easily hold this. The provincial liberals are to the right of the federal liberals while the provincial NDP is starting to become more centrist as opposed to the federal NDP which is still very left wing so some provincial NDP voters will go liberal federally, while probably over 80% of provincial liberals will go liberal federally since the Conservatives are virtually non-existent in the city and rapidly declining in the suburbs.
08 06 05 BLJ
As the recent provincial election attested, the individual riding polls in the North False Creek, Yaletown and Coal Harbour areas went strongly in favour of the provincial Liberals in the 60% - 70% range. The building boom in these areas continues unabated and it therefore appears that the future voting trends in the riding will continue to benefit the federal Liberals. The Greens also draw support in this riding and I just don't think that the NDP can make up the 4,000 vote differential.
06 06 05 hatman
I think the BC election in this riding was a good indication of what will happen in this riding. It will be very close, with the NDP coming out on top. Svend or no Svend, Vancouver Centre will finally swing into the NDP column. While this riding has more right wing areas than the provincial riding, it also has another factor: vote splitting on the right. The Conservatives will drain a lot of Liberal votes, and it will be this that will propel the NDP to victory here.
01 06 05 Brent
At this point any prediction is difficult-- given the recent successful Lib/NDP budget vote and Tory/Bloc statements that any attempted turfing of the Libs won't happen till Parliament resumes after summer. If Mr. Robinson or Mr. Stewart run here then there's a distinct possibility of the Dippers squeaking in, but that very much depends on the outcome of Gomery near end of year.
Many progressives here who intended to vote NDP last time won't be so easily fearmongered, esp. with recent polls putting the Tories below 30% and the Libs in the high 30's. Robinson's higher profile and popularity in the gay community will certainly bolster NDP chances next time round if he were to run--something I'm sure Ms. Fry would not relish.
01 06 05 M. Lunn
I think Hedy Fry will likely hold this. Lorne Mayencourt appears to have narrowly won Vancouver-Burrard (unless the recount changes the results), while the NDP only won Vancouver-Fairview since Gregor Robertson was a moderate NDP, not a hardliner. Also many federal liberals vote NDP provincially so the NDP should get about 10-15% lower than they did provincially, so unless the Conservatives do well, which is unlikely as long as Stephen Harper is the leader, the liberals should hold this.
26 05 05 Mike D
The NDP has made constant failed runs at this seat over the past 20 years or so. They squandered so many resources so many times that could have been better used elsewhere. Unless Svend runs, this is a Liberal seat. Without Svend, the NDP should learn from history and invest in more winnable seats. If Svend does run, Hedy can plan for her retirement.
19 05 05 A. Vancouverite
While it's thoroughly ridiculous to predict that the Conservatives will win this riding, especially with the defection of a high profile moderate like Belinda Stronach (the only sort of new Tory [meaning social liberal] who could win this riding) they could play an important kingmaker role. If enough right-leaning folks vote Conservative instead of Liberal, the NDP could come up the middle and win. But since the budget passed, it's likely an election won't be held until fall or winter, and since that's so far away one really must wait until we see who the NDP nominates (ie: they need someone who can at least put in a respectable effort in Yaletown say 20% there, and at least 10% in Coal Harbour and clean up in the West End with at least 50%) and who the Conservatives nominate (Gary Mitchell would be a decent candidate again, but they need someone with a higher profile). If they nominate a dud they stand no chance, if they nominate Kennedy Stewart again they could win, but that too will depend upon outside factors such as how the parties are doing nationally, regionally and provincially.
16 05 05 PaperBoy
The latest news reports on Svend have him saying that he WON'T be running in this election. If, however, he did run, he'd wipe the floor with all of the other contenders. It's really a no-brainer.
13 05 05 A.S.
Anybody trying to gauge NDP chances in Vancouver Centre must mind what happened to Olivia Chow in Trinity-Spadina last year: beaten back by the "Concord Pacific" fungus (i.e. when pundits warn Dippers about them newfangled glassy asparagus-stalk condos not being terribly Dipper-friendly, they ain't kidding). Still, this is the Left Coast. And yes, the NDP/CCF's never, except for a brief 1948 by-elected moment, actually held VC federally--but that's only due to dumb un-luck and any number of star Liberals and Tories getting in the way. (Yes, that includes you, Avril Phaedra Two-Seats.) So the rumours of this being amenable to a Svend! comeback candidacy/victory aren't out of line...
11 05 05 Bruce
The provincial election outcome for this riding will provide some interesting insight into this riding federally. If Lorne Mayencourt wins on the 17th, then we'll know that the tribalist voting of the gay community doesn't matter as much as it used to in Vancouver-Centre because Tim Stevenson has successfully (and with little difficulty) courted that demographic. This will mean that Hedy Fry will need to broaden her demographic base beyond the West End in order to win convincingly. On the other hand, if Tim Stevenson wins on the 17th, this will mean that gay block voting still matters and it will also mean that Hedy's fight will be with whomever attempts to oust her from her past success with the gay community.
Scenario A-- (Mayencourt winning, Hedy running against Svend) Hedy Wins Narrowly
Scenario B-- (Stevenson winning, Hedy running against Svend) Hedy Loses Badly
This riding is still too close to call.
07 05 05 BrianJA
You must be smoking some premium BC bud if you think that Svend couldn't beat Hedy Fry. Svend Robinson could run in any riding that has a "Vancouver" in it, except for maybe Vancouver Quadra, and any riding that has a "Burnaby" in it, and he would win. Now, it's not definate that he's going to seek the nomination, but even if he doesn't, there's no way that Hedy Fry will hang on this time around. The Liberal vote is down and the NDP vote is up. Hedy Fry should start packing up her office.
07 05 05 Aric H
Hedy Fry has had this seat since 1993 when she beat Kim Campbell here. I believe she intends to run again. With regard to the Svend Robinson situation being commented on here, Svend has said that he will not be running in the election this year and I have also read that the NDP wants him to sit this one out to allow the controversy he got into last year to fade away. This riding was originally supposed to go NDP last year, and then Hedy Fry and the Liberals went up in the final week of the campaign and she won it again by several thousand votes. I would say that she has a slight edge in maintaining it right now, although this edge could go again if the NDP runs a strong candidate or if their numbers go up in BC.
04 05 05 Liberal Crank
Hedy will win again, even if Svend runs against her. Hedy has been very active in the riding for ages and her core constituencies will not be swayed be a carpet bagger.
02 05 05 BrianJA
There's a rumour that Svend may seek the candidacy here, but no word on it so far. Svend or no, though, this riding is going NDP this time around. Fry can't weasel her away out losing this time around.
02 05 05 BLJ
In 2004, the results for this seat were: Lib - 40.3%, NDP - 32.3%, and CPC - 19.2%. The B.C. results for the last two polls released on April 30 were: Ekos: Lib - 43, NDP - 18; Ipsos: Lib - 28, NDP - 23 (albeit with high margins of error) confirming that the Liberals still have relatively significant support in B.C. with a considerable amount of that in urban areas. As the CPC are a non-starter in the City of Vancouver (unlike the old red Tories), and as the NDP has never held this seat, at the present time I believe that this riding will continue to remain leaning Liberal.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
I don't think Hedy Fry will necessarily lose despite her stupid comments on the crosses burning in Prince George. She is well liked amongst the gay community and also there are many high-end houses in False Creek and Kitsilano while expensive apartments in Coal Harbour and Yaletown. Those people likely won't vote for a party that wants to tax the rich, but also won't vote conservative since most are university educated and do support Stephen Harper's hardline conservative views. The only real NDP stronghold is east of Cambie, West End, and the small portion of the Downtown Eastside.
29 04 05 michael smith
since the only reason that hedy won in this riding was due to paul martin's "beware of harper" speech the weekend before election day, i have to go with the NDP this time. the conservative candidate finished way back in 3rd, while the NDP candidate tripled the percentage of the popular vote from 2001. with jack layton being in the house, the NDP have never had a higher profile on the national scene.

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