12:48 AM 23/11/2005

Prediction Changed
1:08 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Vancouver South
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Charles Boylan
Ujjal Dosanjh
Bev Meslo
Doug Perry
Tarlok Sablok

Hon. Ujjal Dosanjh

2004 Result:
Ujjal Dosanjh
Victor Soo Chan
Bev Meslo
Doug Perry
Frank Wagner
Charles Boylan
Stephen Von Sychowski
H. Sandhu
Joe Sixpack Horrocks

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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21 11 05 Bear and Ape
We do not agree, however, that a Punjabi speaking candidate will really help the CPC that much. It did not help them all that much in certain Mississauga and Brampton ridings in 2004.
15 11 05 watcher
First of all, as I've already said, this riding is a multi-ethnic riding. It is so multi-ethnic that many people here don't speak English well and street signs in certain regions of this riding have English AND Punjabi displays. Miles Lunn, as a Vancouverite, probably knows this, but I know that you (as in *both* of you, Bear and Ape) live near Sarnia-Lambton, Ontario. Anyone candidate who speaks Punjabi will have an advantage here, it's just the magnitude of the advantage that's uncertain. Conservative parties have never had a Punjabi-literate candidate here, so I'm not willing to dismiss candidate influence as inconsequential until campaigns are underway.
That said though, in light of current developments, it pains me to say that Conservatives are also at risk of being sidelined even more come election day. Jack Layton's decision of making health care THE CENTERPIECE ISSUE for a non-confidence motion means that health care is probably going to be more important an issue than it ever was in the federal health minister's riding, and I personally know that the Victoria Drive section of this riding has a high concentration of medical clinics and pharmacies that stretches from 41st Avenue to Marine Drive, meaning that health services are quite literally on demand. The main question would likely be: did the Liberals do enough for health care, or was edgy Jack right in toppling the government over health care issues? And as health care isn't something that non-ministerial MPs can control, Vancouver South will likely vote by party. Obviously, health care is not a strong point for the Conservative Party, even though Sablok (Zonal Chair of the Canadian Diabetes Society) probably has more experience in health care at the grassroots level than either Dosanjh or Bev Meslo.
I wouldn't be so sure that Dosanjh will still retain center-left NDP votes, because this is THE, and I do mean THE person who failed to appease Jack Layton, and this may not sit well with NDP voters no matter where they are on the political spectrum. If anything, the fact that NDP votes in this riding increased by over 7000 between 2000 and 2004 should indicate that an NDP upset is possible. That said, some NDP supporters are not happy with Layton jumping the gun on an early election, so who knows.
Lastly, I will still point out that if the Conservatives can put a major emphasis on health care come writ-dropping day and that Sablok makes a good delivery, the Conservatives still have a chance with this.
10 11 05 Bear and Ape
Hey Watcher, maybe you should read a little more closely, M Lunn never claimed that you said the CPC will win here, he said, "Anyone who thinks this will go Conservative is totally wrong." Talk about putting words into people's mouths! But back to the matter at hand, this riding...Anyone who thinks the Conservatives will win this is totally wrong! The CPC is dropping like crazy in BC and though we are sure those numbers will improve, they are going to do so more in rural BC than in Vancouver proper. Dosanjh will get all the traditional Liberal vote plus will get the not-too-far-left NDP vote. Not to mention people who may have voted CPC in 2004 but just don't like that option anymore. Even if Sablok comes out in support of SSM, it won't help him much. People in cities look more at the party than the individual candidate, not to mention Dosanjh's incumbancy, which of course helps. Bottom line, all arrows are pointing to the Liberals.
06 11 05 watcher
Furthermore, this riding has always had an ethnic factor that real hardcore Liberal strongholds in BC, such as Vancouver Quadra, do not.
That said, I never said that this riding WILL go Conservative, so stop putting words in my mouth, M. Lunn.
The basic message I was trying to deliver was: the Conservatives now have better chance of winning this riding than they've ever had since 1993, although I agree that Stephen Harper, as a party leader, is of no help whatsoever to Tarlok Sablok. How much of an improvement that will be is anyone's opinion.
On a related note, I think that Tarlok Sablok will only have a chance of winning Vancouver South if he supports same-sex marriage. However, that takes a lot of guts to do in the Conservative party, and statistically speaking, odds of any Conservative federal candidate doing that is no better than 3/98. In the event that he does, however, the race in Vancouver South may become very interesting.
01 10 05 M. Lunn
Anyone who thinks this will go Conservative is totally wrong. This area may have gone for the Progressive Conservatives in the 70s and 80s and still goes BC Liberal provincially, but Stephen Harper's republican style conservatism has no support whatsoever in Vancouver proper or even the inner suburbs as a matter fact. The Conservatives will some of the suburbs out in the Fraser Valley, but they will NOT win any ridings in the city of Vancouver proper. The Conservative candidate may be a moderate, but unlike rural areas, people in urban areas usually vote solely for party, unless there is a star candidate as was the case in the provincial riding of Vancouver-Fraserview where Wally Oppal won in a traditional swing riding. And even a star Conservative candidate still wouldn't be able to win here.
23 09 05 watcher
The nomination came out that a fellow by the name of Tarlok Sablok will be heading the Conservative campaign in Vancouver South. He's Indian and has very working-class and NDP-esque connections, both of which will strengthen him a lot in Vancouver South. With this, he can secure the usual Conservative votes and simultaneously chip away some Liberal and NDP votes. If there's anything to be said about this guy, it will be that he is to the Conservative Party what the Chinese NDP MLA in BC is to the BC NDP party: a one-of-a-kind rarity.
It's tough that his opponent happens to be Ujjal Dosanjh, and while I'm a biased Conservative, I'm not going to kid myself and pretend Dosanjh is a weak politician. Dosanjh is perhaps even more flexible as a politician than Herb Daliwhal, I'll give him that.
But if Sablok plays his cards right, he can at least pull away with a closer second than the last election. If he doesn't just play his cards right, but VERY WELL, then he just might be the next Vancouver South MP.
That said though, this is all just speculation. I have to personally see him and speak to him to see what he can do. But even before that I'm already hoping he'd win.
15 06 05 hatman
Vancouver South is another part of the Liberal area in Vancouver. Dosanjh's popularity will go down by the time the election roles around, but even with the Conservative's and the NDP's respectable showings in 2004 wont be enough to turn the tides in Vancouver South. Expect a Dosanjh victory.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
More then just that, Miles, but as a former New Democrat, Dossanjh will capture NDP votes if it looks like this riding will go down to the tories, they'd need to win this riding with a majority to beat him, something that wont happen. This is a certainty, perhaps the only Liberal certainty in BC. One of the few for sure.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
This is a very safe liberal riding. Unlike the other East Vancouver ridings, the NDP is very weak on the South side. Even provincially where they are usually stronger, they definitely won't win Vancouver-Langara and likely won't win Vancouver-Fraserview. Ironically Ujjal Dosanjh is a former NDP leader, but from talking to other, he is well liked amongst many, even those who despise the NDP. He only lost his seat provincially due to the unpopularity of his predecessor Glen Clark. This would go liberal federally no matter who ran, but Ujjal Dosanjh will likely be more of an asset then liability for the liberals in this riding. I should also note that both the BC Liberal candidates Wally Oppal and Carole Taylor are left-leaning liberals so they will almost certainly vote for Dosanjh (if they live in the riding, liberal for sure) despite not supporting him provincially.

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