Update/Mise à jour:
2:24 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
4:20 PM 22/01/2006
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Western Arctic

Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Alexandre Beaudin
Dennis Bevington
Ethel Blondin-Andrew
Richard Edjericon
Jan H. van der Veen

Hon. Ethel Blondin-Andrew

2004 Result/Résultats:
Ethel Blondin-Andrew
Dennis Bevington
Sean Mandeville
Chris O'Brien

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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17 01 06 Andrew M.
This one will go NDP. The last election showed how viable a candidate Bevington is, and Ethel's petty response to her narrow victory left a lot to be desired - and more importantly, it alienated a lot of voters (myself included). Add in a viable Conservative candidate who will likely steal small-community votes away from Ethel, plus the visit from Jack Layton, and Bevington'll have it easily.
15 01 06 g-spot
This riding is a close one. Jack Layton, leader of the NDP, was the only major party leader that bothered to make the trek north of 60 in this campaign, so that shows just how close and important this race is for New Democrats. In 2004, Dennis Bevington gave Ethel Blondin-Andrew a run for her money, coming within 53 votes of defeating her. With Layton coming up here to campaign with his candidate, and Martin noticably absent, this riding should be nudged, albeit only slightly, into the NDP column.
11 01 06 dunno
This is going to be a close race again. A legitimate Tory candidate this time around really spices things up.
Although I think that people in the NWT generally vote for the candidate and not the political party that they represent, I think that most voters understand that there is far too much at risk to allow personal relationships to rule this time around.
We have an MP who is a Cabinet Minister, has significant influence in Ottawa, and is a tireless advocate for her constituents. Ethel has had to support matters such as Bill C68, and other decisions unpopular in the NWT, because she is a member of a political party. Her membership in that party, the governing party, has also resulted in significant gains for the NWT that we would not have benefited from without her hard work.
Denis is a great guy, I really like him, but he will never sit in Cabinet and never be able to deliver the way Ethel has. Rick (Richard) is also a great guy, I like him too, but a Conservative Government, influenced by the likes of Thomas Flannigan, is potentially a tremendous step backward for the NWT.
05 01 06 tomfoolery
There's a real sense that Ethel's time has passed. As a weak campaigner (remember 2004?) facing a disgruntled electorate and an ever-more experienced challenger in Bevington, Ethel has little of real substance to show for all her years as a cabinet minister and MP. Her recent claim that a power-sharing deal with the feds and Aboriginal people was almost struck prior to the election is a sign of her campaign's desperation. Pack your bags, folks. The Grit train ride in this territory is over. Good news for Bagnell - if the Libs win without Ethel, Larry stands a good chance of a cabinet posting.
24 12 05 Peter McG
Layton's trip to yellowknife this week may have been enough to turn this one orange. What other party leader (other than Duceppe who might as well be campaigning in Florida) can afford to fly all the way up to the NWT for a whistle stop. Too many gaps to fill in down south. I think this should be enough to overcome the miniscule margin the liberals squeaked by with last time round.
16 12 05 Dave-o
Ethel has been weak and ineffectual. While the issue of natural resources and devolution should be a natural for the Conservatives, they are in no place to harness it. Instead, the protest vote on this (and other) issues will likely seal the fate that Ethel avoided last time by only 50 votes. NDP gain.
29 11 05 DiamondBoy
Ethel Blondin-Andrew was first elected in 1988, she has been an Aboriginal and Northern stalwart for the Liberal party for years now. She is now Minister of State (Northern Development). Someone mentioned because she came so close last time to losing, that she will put more effort into the riding. I agree, I have met Ethel before, who happens to be a real nice women, kinda of like your mother, anyway, she said that indeed her and the party will be working to ensure all the territories stay in Liberal hands.
04 10 05 M. Lunn
I don't think this is a done deal for the NDP. They could win this, but Ethel Blondin-Andrew could still keep it. It will be another match up since Dennis Bovington is the NDP candidate again so I expect it too be close. Also, since Ethel Blondin-Andrew won every other race by comfortable margins, but nearly lost here, I think she will probably put more effort into ensuring this doesn't go NDP. Besides most Northerners need a voice in government and they know their concerns are more likely to be addressed with someone on the government side than an opposition MP. The Conservatives certainly won't win this, but how many votes they lose/gain from other parties could ultimately determine the outcome. Since people in the North vote more for person than party, crossover votes from Conservatives to NDP or vice versa is certainly possible whereas not likely further South.
16 07 05 Nick Boragina
With an election always ever present, its good that websites like this have opened early. One of the downsides about that, is that things can change. A good example is the roumer that the preimier would run here, now that it's been denied, I have to change my prediction (back) to the NDP.
20 05 05 Garth Brasseur
The ex-Premier has announced that he will not be running. The Conservatives have dominated a well-known local aboriginal politician. This will likely split the vote in the communities, which in the past has voted solidly Liberal. As he is from a community near Yellowknife, he will also gain some urban votes which will cost the NDP more than the Liberals. I would say, on balance, that Bevington (a well-known northern politician) is the favourite this time, but do not expect him to win easily.
17 05 05 Nick Boragina
There are roumers that the former premier here could run as an independent, if he does that will make this a very interesting race. He could win, but he could lose. We have not had a true independent win since the 60's in this country. Oh sure, you can look at Nunziata, but he was a sitting MP. You can look at Duceppe, but he had support from an unofficial party. The last TRUE independent to win was a former north york mayor in, I think, 1968. Kawfki (spelling) if he runs could win, but that's no guarentee. As I said in my earlier prediction the NDP is strong here. The question becomes, if he runs, who will he take votes from the NDP or the Liberals? Can he even take enough votes for a tory to win? Will he win?
If this roumer is true, it could really throw things into chaos up here. Right now I'm in a wait-and-see mood.
06 05 05 Brandon
Cabinet Minister Ethel Blondin-Andrews won here by just over 50 votes last time over the NDP. With more and more Adscam fallout, the New Democratic Party has Ms. Blondin-Andrews' goose cooked.
04 05 05 Nick Boragina
The NDP's been trying to orginize a territorial party for the past 20 or so years, and with each election, they increase their relative vote total. With the liberals down, this will be an NDP win, regardless of the candidate really, this is the party's time to shine.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
Unlike areas further South, people tend to vote for the local candidate so unless the NDP puts up another strong candidate like Dennis Bovington, who nearly defeated Ethel Blondin-Andrew, she should be re-elected. She has done a decent job of advocating for the region. This area generally is wary of the free market, so even if the Conservatives put up a strong candidate, I cannot see them winning this riding. It may have gone Conservative in 1979, 1980, and 1984, but Joe Clark was a Red Tory who was wary of the free market, while 1984 was the Mulroney sweep where most of the ridings went PC no matter where they were.
03 05 05 hatman
This race was surprisingly close in 2004. If the NDP runs the same candidate here in 2005, they will win it. This is the NDP's biggest target riding. They only need a swing of less than 100 votes to get it. 100 votes is a lot for a huge sparsely populated riding such as this one, but they should be able to pull it off with the Liberals sagging in the polls.

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