12:45 AM 07/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:11 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Larry Bagnell
Pam Boyde
Sue Greetham
Philippe LeBlond

Hon. Larry Bagnell

2004 Result/Résultats:
Larry Bagnell
Pam Boyde
James Hartle
Philippe LeBlond
Sean Davey
Geoffrey Capp

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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05 01 06 tomfoolery
This riding goes to Larry Bagnell by default, though a stronger NDP candidate could easily have given him a real contest. He's got enough questionable votes against the Yukon in the House, especially his lack of vote against the gun registry. Sure he brings home a lot of federal funds, but the Yukon has always received a huge chunk of change - it's only when it's a Liberal MP at the table that the news releases are spewed out.
01 12 05 PJ
Anyone who doesn't know this one is going to Bagnell doesn't know the Yukon. First of all, Larry is incredibly well liked across the territory, and has an unbelievable work ethic. As far as being dragged down by the Liberal brand - you obviously haven't been paying attention to what has been happening up north. The Martin government has paid more attention to the three territories than any government in memory - tens of millions of dollars for the Northern Strategy and Northern Economic Development and billions of dollars to improve the lives of First Nations in the north and across the country. The Yukon Party Territorial Government has done nothing for 3 years but collect the money and redistribute as much to their close friends as they can.
14 06 05 GJJ
the Yukon Party government did not endorse Larry Bagnell in the last federal election despite prior postings to that effect on this site; the Yukon is no longer a safe New Democrat seat given that the Liberals have won the riding in the last two elections and increased their margin of victory; Audrey`s political career has ended, she is almost 70, and has absolutely no desire to re-enter federal politics; and Larry Bagnell remains very popular in the riding despite his often rumpled and disoriented appearance, and will be easily re-elected. Anyone using national polling numbers to project the outcome of this constituency does not understand the local dynamics and probably never lived in the territory.
23 05 05 Jim Harris
This was a very safe seat for the NDP. This is the constituency of the former federal NDP leader, Hon. Audrey McLaughlin. With the Liberals down, and the NDP substantially up, I predict here a close win for the NDP candidate... The Liberals will be wiped out of the Territories.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Unlike areas further South, people tend to vote more for the candidate as opposed to party. That is why this went PC for thirty years, then NDP from 1987 to 2000 while Audrey McGaughlin held the riding for 10/13 years. In 2000 Larry Bagnell narrowly won since Louise Hardy had too low a profile while Larry Bagnell was not too well known. Since then, he is become quite popular and was even endorsed by the right leaning Yukon Pary. Last time around he won by 19 points and despite the liberals falling in the polls elsewhere, I am guessing he will do even better.
05 05 05 BrianJA
Bagnell is a popular MP who looks like he rolls out of bed in the morning, throws on some clothes and goes to Question Period as is. He's a people-person, for sure. I've been saying for months that we should convince Audrey MacLaughlin to come back. The NDP have the potential to win this one back, and if the Liberals fall any further, they may just. But, for now, it looks like Mr. Bagnell gets to keep his seat. Prediction: Bagnell hold by less than 1000 votes as the people vote for the man, not the party.
03 05 05
The incumbent is quite popular in this riding, and the Yukon has a history of supporting incumbents- well federally that is. On the territorial level it's a different story. It will deffinately be closer, more akin to the 2000 results than 2004, but Mr. Bagnell seems to be the popular choice. Despite being next to Alaska, the Yukon is pretty left wing- at least Libertarian. The Premier, who is a member of the Yukon Party (formerly conservatives) came out in support of same-sex marriage. So unless Mr. Fentie runs for the tories, or Audrey McLaughlin for the NDP, the Liberals will win.

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Federal Election - 2006
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