Prediction Changed
11:45 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Bisaillon, Laura M.
DeBlois, Tom
Christian Heritage
Judson, Baird
Murphy, Shawn
New Democratic
Pollard, Brian

Hon. Shawn Murphy

2006 Result:
Shawn Murphy **
Tom DeBlois
Brian Pollard
David Lobie Daughton
Andrew J. Chisholm
Baird Judson

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 09 SC
Surprised at the decision to call this; I think it will be a nail-biter, but given the reversal of the Conservatives' momentum in the last week or so, I'll give it narrowly to Milligan. Wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Shea won, however.
08 10 07 RP.
CRA poll out today has Murphy in a comfortable lead. That's probably more realistic than my previous prediction.
08 10 05 John
According to the Charlottetown Guardian, the Green candidates for both Charlottetown and Cardigan aren't actively campaigning because they are both going to university in Ontario.
I think that may limit the ability of the Greens to pull support away from both the Liberals and the NDP.
08 09 16 RP.
This is literally the last riding I would've imagined going blue this time. Shawn Murphy is probably the most visible riding-man I've ever seen, and is extremely well-liked. He works hard, and campaigns hard, and the constituents can't help but know what he's up to. That said, I'm putting in a prediction for a blue sweep of the Island. Islanders hate the Green Shift, and are prone to get swept away by zeitgeist, witness the Red Tide of the provincial election. What I'm saying is, there's a good chance of an undeserved blue sweep.
08 01 12 A.S.
The one PEI seat where NDP's had a chance, even (in 1997) over PC; but with Dody Crane no longer running, the Dippers reverted to 11% also-ran status in '06 (and, all things considered, could now easily be headed for 4th vs the Greens). Unless CPC re-PCs itself as a Maritime Urban Red Tory sort of party, Shawn Graham's a cinch for reelection.
07 10 07 Nick J Boragina
I'm going to change my prediction here. For now. Harper is a lot less scary then he used to be, but despite that, we are not seeing any swing to the CPC. In the Atlantic poll after poll shows the Liberals still have the edge. While I still maintain that this will be the first riding to tip to the Tories should they win a seat on the Island, I think that for now at least, itís a safe Liberal seat.
07 04 02 Nick J Boragina
The Liberals have done well in PEI for a reason, they are moderate. The tories are far more right-wing, but also far more regional and pro-western. All of that has a major effect in the rural areas of the province, but here in Charlottetown (where I lived for a number of years) things are a little more 'selfish'. If any riding on the island is going tory blue it is this one. Historically this is actually a conservative riding, and with the tories in government the chances are up of a win here. That being said, its far from clear. I'm still leaning towards the Liberals winning, but a tory win is not out of the question.
07 03 28 M. Lunn
Joe McGuire may be retiring, but this is a very safe Liberal seat and even survived the Mulroney sweep in 1984 so I expect this to go Liberal even if the Tories do pull off a majority.

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