Prediction Changed
11:46 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Malpeque
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Green
Bevan-Baker, Peter
New Democratic
Brown, J'Nan
Conservative
Crane, Mary
Liberal
Easter, Wayne

Incumbent:
Hon. Wayne Easter

2006 Result:
Wayne Easter **
9779
George Noble
6708
George Marshall
1983
Sharon Labchuk
901

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 10 07 RP.
24.137.112.219
CRA poll out today has Crane and Easter in a dead heat. I don't know what to think of this, Mary has certainly been campaigning hard for a long time before the election, but Wayne hasn't lost an election yet. Too close for me.
08 10 05 John
74.210.6.102
Well, Dion dropped in to give some support to the Liberal candidates in PEI over the weekend. The Charlottetown Guardian quotes Dion as saying he would have to consider Wayne Easter when forming a cabinet.
Of course, getting the nod as potential cabinet material isn't going to count for much given the Conservatives will likely form the next government. After all, if the Liberals wind up back on the opposition side of the house, Dion forming a cabinet is moot.
Also, Dion dropping in at this point in the campaign could also be viewed by many as a trip to shore up PEI candidates, with the logical conclusion being that Liberal seats are a bit less than secure.
Also, the Guardian also had a story quoting the Maratime Electric CEO saying a carbon tax similar to changes proposed in the Liberal Green Shift would increase electricity rates. That would jive with some of the other posters' comments on residents' views on the Green Shift.
But the potential cabinet post carrot might add a little oomph to Wayne Easter's campaign and might help offset some of the negatives from the Green Shift.
08 09 17 Democrassy
142.166.85.208
Harper and team have done it again - true to form - pooping puffins, partisan shots at a father of a Canadian hero, and now Gerry Ritz joking about hoping Wayne Easter was the most recent victim of listeriosis Ė pathetic.
Farmers, constits and anybody who knows Wayne will be outraged as will all unfortunate souls across Canada who have been affected by tragic listeriosis outbreak
Unfortunate for Ms Crane but she had better distance herself from Harper and company if she hopes to have any hope - probably too late - sad way to see it happen in a democracy but Red it will be in Malpeque on E-day
08 09 16 RP.
24.137.112.219
Mary Crane, like Gail Shea, has been working this riding for a long time now. I wouldn't have predicted a CPC win here before, however. Wayne seemed to be so firmly lodged. Islanders hate the Green Shift (and Wayne famously railed against it), and are prone to get swept away by zeitgeist, witness the Red Tide of the provincial election. What I'm saying is, there's a good chance of an undeserved blue sweep.
08 02 25
24.81.18.126
Not a safe riding for the Liberals especially in the event of a likely Conservative re-election (nationally). True, Wayne Easter won with 50% of the vote in 2006, but the CPC candidate had a strong 35% showing. The 15% vote gap will be an uphill battle to overcome, but nevertheless is achievable with a strong Conservative national campaign as well as a strong local campaign.
*Too close to call right now.*
08 02 19 R.O.
209.91.149.215
Was looking thru the political history of this riding , was surprised that it was mostly a pc riding before it went liberal back in 88 and the pc vote in 2000 is higher than cpc vote in 2 more recent elections. That being said the conservatives are still way ahead of ndp and only party close enough to the liberals to pose any challenge here. Last time Mary Crane ran here she came within 3000 votes , which isnít much in other ridings but which is a lot in a small riding like this. But Wayne Easter is no longer the high profile cabinet minister he once was, but being a longtime incumbent is an advantage here. Even so Mary Crane is a good candidate for the conservatives here and it will be interesting race.
08 01 12 A.S.
99.233.96.153
Being a rural/suburban Charlottetown fringe sort of riding, Malpeque's probably got the most ambiguous identity of PEI's Federal Four. And depending on who's running, it's probably no more or no less likely to fall to the Conservatives (or anyone else) than the rest.
07 04 05 Daniel
156.34.89.54
I'm not sure that the Liberals are any less 'regional' than the Tories, Nick, but I'm quite sure that, as long as Easter is MP, ths is one 'region' that will continue to vote Liberal (unless Harper's fortunes substantially improve in this part of the country).
07 04 02 Nick J Boragina
74.99.228.118
The Liberals have done well in PEI for a reason, they are moderate. The tories are far more right-wing, but also far more regional and pro-western. There might be some PEI ridings willing to go tory, but this is not one of them.



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