Prediction Changed
4:23 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Brison, Scott
New Democratic
Harris, Carol E.
Christian Heritage
Hnatiuk, Jim
MacNeill, Brendan
Segado, Rosemary

Hon. Scott Brison

2006 Result:
Scott Brison **
Bob Mullan
Mary DeWolfe
Sheila Richardson
Chummy Anthony

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 16 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
This is a Scott Brison riding. Where Scott goes the riding goes. Once Scott does go (out of politics) this riding will turn blue. But that's another time and another circumstance, so watch for a solid Scott Brison win (note I did not a Liberal win) and dare I say his margin will be a little larger than last.
08 09 05 Urban Farmer
Add on his national profile gained during the last Liberal leadership and Scott Brison is certainly unstoppable. He has a great relationship with the people of Kings-Hants and will continue as their MP through October 14.
08 08 25 MadCaper
This seat is safe for the present time as the Tories have not put a high profile candidate in place and have not made any friends in this part of the Province with their attacks on Brison. The N.D.P., although third last time may be able to sneak into second place due to those attacks (Personal or not )being seen that way and it has offended many poeple. Liberal hold for now but things can change. With an election in the offing we will soon know the real story.
08 02 14 A.S.
Remember: this was a sort of phantom ‘Tory hold’ (i.e. PC plus Pat Nowlan, and that's if we argue that Reform doesn't count) in 1993. And maybe it still is a phantom PC hold, in an ‘I didn't leave the party, the party left me’ sense. Being more bumbling as a Liberal leadership candidate than as a PC leadership candidate oughtn't bring Scott Brison down, all the more so given the Bill Casey situation nearby (could the NDP actually hit 2nd here instead?!?), so count on Brison again being the first interviewed-winning-candidate talking head seen on CBC once Eastern Time polling closes...
07 10 02 Nick J Boragina
In the last two elections I spent a lot of time making comments in this riding about how and why the Tories will not win. Both times I was right. Now we face a coming election and again we come here to share our opinions, and mine has not changed even after almost 4 years. Brison got elected because he was Brison, not because he was a PCer, or a Liberal. Brison will continue to get elected because he is Brison. He has settled well into the Liberal Party, and it’s almost possible to forget that he was a Tory pre-merger. He will have no trouble winning here, anyone who predicts otherwise needs to check their facts.
07 05 10 British Columbian
Scott Brison’s margin of victory last election was solid, and he managed to pick up almost 2,000 more votes than in 2004. His run for leadership helped to build his profile within the party, and he managed to win a fair amount of support considering that he was a former Tory. Many members of the Liberal party couldn’t bring themselves to vote for him so soon after switching parties, but many who supported other candidates this time pledged to support him next time. His choice to support Rae and Ignatieff on later ballots is not a big issue; they are all on the same team.
Smok’s prediction appears to be influenced, not by a dispassionate analysis of the situation, but by an obvious disdain for the incumbent. He may ‘want to see this one taken out of the Liberal column’ and may think that a Brison defeat in the next election would be ‘not a moment too soon,’ but the residents of Kings-Hants clearly feel differently. I agree with everyone else on this prediction site, and you don't have to be from the riding to see it; Kings-Hants is a lock for Scott Brison.
07 05 02 JG
I would hardly call Janet Eaton a strong candidate for the Greens - she may have a small personal following in Wolfville, but otherwise she has an abrasive, confrontational, and rather haughty style which won't win many more votes. In any case, Brison should take the win again, though the Conservatives will make a strong push once again (and still come up several thousand votes short).
07 04 26 R J Anderson
The Green Party of Canada nominated Dr. Janet Eaton in this riding which was a waste. She could have faced off against Bill Casey instead. Now she will be splitting votes. At least they got rid of Sheila Richardson!
Brison will win anyway but if the strong candidates the Greens do have are going to keep splitting Liberal votes instead of taking on Conservatives it doesn't appear the Green Party has much future in Nova Scotia at all.
07 04 12 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We will add our voices to the chorus that is claiming this to be a ‘Brison riding’. He is very popular at home and has won elections when Conservatives were targeting him specifically. If he can withstand that, he can keep the riding, especially after the budget which is not sitting well with Nova Scotians.
07 03 28 M. Lunn
I agree with Brian Appel, this is neither a Conservative or Liberal riding, but a Brison one. In fact had Brison stayed as a Conservative, I suspect he would have easily won this riding in both elections. About 30% are Liberal supporters, 30% Conservative supporters, 10% others, and 20% Brison supporters so if you do the math that puts Brison at around 50% whichever party he would run under.
07 03 26 Smok Wawelski
I would like to see this one taken out of the Liberal column and put into too close to call. I respectfully disagree with brian. I believe that Brison succeeded in demonstrating to one and all that he's always on the wrong side of things. His campaign was dismal for someone so supposedly high profile, and after he dropped out, he kept on moving on to other losers.
Unless the election itself trends toward the Liberals nationally, we may very well see the end of Scott Brison, and not a moment too soon.
07 03 21 Brian Appel
This isn't a Liberal riding, or a Conservative riding. It's a Brison riding. If he could hold it in 2004 and in 2006, he'll hold it in 2007. The leadership race really boosted his fortunes across Canada, especially in his hometown. Easy Liberal hold.

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