Prediction Changed
4:23 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Sackville-Eastern Shore
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Green
Hartlen, Noreen
Conservative
Montgomery, David
Liberal
Scott, Carolyn
New Democratic
Stoffer, Peter

Incumbent:
Peter Stoffer

2006 Result:
Peter Stoffer **
22848
Bill Fleming
9921
Paul Francis
9450
Richard MacDonald
933

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 10 06 kdborg
24.137.68.26
Predicting NDP based on history and signage. On lawns I've seen quite a few Peter Stoffer and one Green party. On the public property and businesses is where I see each candidates sign.
08 09 17 Ebenezer
142.177.126.244
Since the NDP owns Halifax Regional Municipality politically, and since the other parties are running relative unknowns, we could be saving taxpayers' money here. Give the seat to the NDP by acclamation. Boring campaigns, uninspiring candidates, foregone conclusion ...what a formula for a situation in which people don't bother to vote. Voter apathy? The political parties invite it!
In 2006 Nova Scotia returned all its sitting members, and yet the province pulsates with a sense of having missed the economic boat. Almost three years later, people are more upset, then turn right around and vote for the status quo. The only change this time will be Bill Casey's label. Sad.
I envy Quebec and Ontario where people can make real choices in elections.
08 09 16 Brian A
24.222.81.66
Living in the riding as I do, I'm quite surprised by the lack of signage over a week in already. Driving through, I've seen a few Peter signs here and there, and the odd Carolyn sign. It's like people in Sackville-Eastern Shore decided not to bother this time around. Also, I've had no door knocks, no campaign material. Nothing. It's like the election isn't in this riding.
08 09 16 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
204.187.16.131
I think Brian A makes a good point, however I have to disagree in that people will likely vote for the incumbent, especially when he is well liked and the opponent's party is very unlikely to form a government. I certainly do not think the CPC will make any advances in Atlantic Canada (particularly NS and NF&L) so the coming up the middle scenerio is unlikely. Given another time and circustances though I think a coming up the middle situtaion would be possible.
08 09 10 Brian A
24.137.72.178
I just wanted to say that, despite it being the most likely scenario, there's not a 100% chance that Peter Stoffer will win here. As the previous commenter mentioned, Carolyn Scott is a very strong candidate and will put up a good fight in this riding. Depending on how well the Conservative does here, there's a chance Carolyn might come up the middle and take it. Now, I'm not going to go so far as to mark this with a Liberal prediction, but I'm just saying...don't count out the Liberals here yet and don't put all your eggs in Peter's basket.
08 09 05 Urban Farmer
24.224.204.85
The NDP's only safe seat in NS and primarily because of Peter Stoffer. He's a well liked guy by people of all stripes and will certainly have little trouble retaining his place in the House of Commons. The Liberal candidate Carolyn Scott is quite intriguing though and would certainly have a great shot if Stoffer were not re-offering.
08 08 25 MadCaper
142.68.176.250
This riding is probably one of the safest seats in the country for the New Democrats due to two factors. In his riding Peter is seen as a very down to earth man and very much a constituency man. Add to that fact that he is also one of the most respected M.P's in the House Of Commons by all Parties and it speaks volumes as to why he wins his seat by large margins each time there is an election call. Hold for the N.D.P..
08 04 10 Stevo
76.64.103.40
To echo the prevailing sentiment here, this is Stoffer's seat for as long as he wants it. He turned a squeaker of a win in a competitive three-way race in 1997 into one of the biggest NDP majorities in the country. Like Yvon Godin, however, once he retires the NDP is unlikely to hold on here, but UNLIKE Yvon Godin's Acadie-Bathurst which will almost certainly default to Liberal, Sackville is likely to become a Liberal/Tory battleground.
08 02 23 A.S.
99.233.96.153
Talk about turning a 50-cent bet into 500 dollars; Stoffer, the guy who totally shouldn't have won in '97, is now wiping the electoral floor with absolute-majority mandates and there's no real end in sight. In fact, given his idiosyncratic manner of representation, Stoffer might as well do something like what some US congressional reps have done, i.e. score the official nomination/endorsement from the Liberals and Conservatives as well, and waltz back into office practically acclaimed...
07 09 16 Nick J Boragina
74.13.125.185
Stoffer, who Iíve met in person, is very popular in his riding. He is the Nova Scotia equivalent of Yvon Godain in New Brunswick. If the NDP were to win only one riding in the province it would be this one, and not because the riding is particularly left-wing, but because people in the riding love their candidate. Stoffer has amazing support at the local level and will win this riding regardless of who he runs for; but since I donít hear roomers of his floor-crossing any time this decade, Iím predicting this NDP.
07 04 03 JG
142.177.182.220
This is both a Stoffer and an NDP riding, who hold seats in this region provincially and, otherwise, a great deal of support.
07 03 28 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
This is actually a swing riding which is why Peter Stoffer only narrowly won in 2000 and 1997, but since then he has developed a strong personal appeal that will pretty much ensure he continues to win this riding as long as he remains MP. The real race here will happen whenever he retires from politics, but until then this remains a safe NDP riding.
07 03 25 Brian Appel
69.70.112.147
Like Kings-Hants with Brison, this riding belongs to the incumbent, not the party. Peter Stoffer is one of the best riding politicians in the HoC. I mean, the guy would do anything for Sackville, so in the next election, whenever it may be, people will vote for Peter Stoffer, not the NDP, here.
07 03 24 RF
74.120.155.163
Peter Stoffer is incredibly popular in this riding. If he wasn't around, this riding would be up in the air, but his popularity overrides any party's strength.
07 03 23 Daniel
156.34.89.195
Perhaps the most secure riding for the NDP in the entire country; Stouffer won nig last time, and given that he's hung around even as the NDP vote has waned in the Atlantic region in recent years, I think he'll cakewalk to victory.



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