Prediction Changed
11:47 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Allain, Daniel
New Democratic
Bainbridge, Carl
Ménard, Alison
Murphy, Brian

Brian Murphy

2006 Result:
Brian Murphy
Charles Doucet
David Hackett
Camille Labchuk
Ron Pomerleau

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 05 BC
Liberal Brian Murphy will easily hold on to the riding, although many predict it will be a tighter race than the last election. Conservative Daniel Allain is being taken very seriously, however he does not have nearly the popularity, cache or track racord of the very popular Murphy family, who have been involved in Greater Moncton politics for generations. Allain's strategy has been to rely heavily on Bernard Lord, however Lord is considered more of a ‘folk hero’ outside of Moncton rather than inside. Lord barely won re-election in 2003 and lost in 2006. When he resigned his seat in the legislature, it went Liberal. The Bernard Lord coattails are very short in Moncton and Allain will likely wish he hadn't relied on that strategy. Allain is also focusing on Murphy's 40% ‘absentee’ rate, ignoring the fact that Murphy was told to be out of the House in order to avoid a government loss in a vote and, thus, an early election. This is not a riding that appreciates personal attacks, and Allain's strong attacks on Murphy are going over like a lead balloon. The Murphy family has played an important role in Greater Moncton's growth and they have many fans and loyalists. Allain's strategy to blast Murphy is simply not working. In fact, it is working against him. As well, Allain's convoluted stance on Petitcodiac River restoration and Conservative cuts to culture are not winning him any fans. Expect Murphy to win re-election in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe with little problem.
08 09 15 Maritimer
I believe the last time this seat went to the Conservatives, it was won by Dennis Cochrane in the Mulroney sweep of 1984. Murphy does not have the same broad based appeal that Bradshaw did, but it won't be enough to see the seat change hands. This is definitely one of the safer Liberal seats in the country. If the local Conservatives mount a very good campaign, they might break 15,000 votes, with the Liberals coming in above 20,000 votes. Even with Lord, the Conservatives would have had a real uphill battle here. There would have to be a complete Liberal collapse in order for the Conservatives to pick this one up. I guess we'll see about that one.
08 09 13 binriso
Uhh Bernard Lord isnt running, although id actually agree that itd be at least TCTC if not a CPC pickup if he did.
08 08 31
expect bernard lord to run here for the tories. cpc pickup.
08 02 15 A.S.
Too urban/too French (even if this used to be Len Jones territory). Perhaps Murphy lost ground next to Claudette Bradshaw before him; but he won fair and square. Right now, it'd take either a Bernard Lord or a Quebec-style Franco-Tory shift this far south of Quebec to knock the Grits out.
07 10 07 Nick J Boragina
I went though the 2004 federal election with a Job in this riding. The Conservatives can put up a good campaign here, but they cannot seem to break though to the voters. This is a bilingual riding in a bilingual province, and it has, most importantly, a bilingual mindset. While the Tories could sweep up more Anglophone ridings in this province, places that ‘think’ in both languages, like here in Moncton, will pose a challenge. The Alliance finished second here in 2000, though it was a 50 point gap or so. That tells me that the PC party lost its party machine along the way, and without an established and old machine, it will be difficult for anyone but the Liberals to win here.
07 06 19 binriso
Its pretty obvious that this will stay Liberal next election. Even in 06 with the CPC just slightly behind the Liberals in voting % in NB, Murphy won by 8500 votes. The CPC will have to probably be at 50% province wide to take him down, which almost certainly not happen. Safest Liberal seat in the province.
Another big Liberal win close to 10 000 votes.
07 03 24 RF
If Bernard Lord had run here as it has been speculated, this riding would be too close to call, but with his taking a position in the private sector, you can bet that this riding will stay with the Liberals.
07 03 24 Daniel
This riding has gone to the Liberals by lopsided margins since 1988; nothing would suggest to me that the next election will be any different.

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