| ||08 10 12
|On Don Newman's 'Politics' show last week, Concordia University Professor Brooke Jeffrey predicted that former Liberal MP Eleni Bakopanos might win this riding back.|
| ||08 10 10
|Considering how close the race was here in 2006, I expect that the (in)famous Liberal ‘ballot box bonus’ will allow Ms. Bakopanos to win by a small margin.|
| ||08 10 09
|It's hard to know how to predict this seat. It is obviously going to be a close race again between the BQ and the Liberals with the same 2 opponents facing off - the now incumbent BQ member, and the former Liberal member. What is not available to us is a riding poll to give us a clue as to what might be happening here - there have been riding polls in places like Papineau and Vaudreuil-Soulanges, but there doesn't seem to have been one done for Ahuntsic.|
Democratic Space has projected this riding to go Liberal by a small margin throughout the campaign, so it may be that the Liberals have a slight advantage here, but we may not know what happens until Election Night unless we get some more information from posters who are on the ground.
| ||08 09 30
|This is an easy call, back to the Liberals. The Bloc lost vote in '06, barely won the riding in the midst of the scandal. Now the Tories are becoming an alternative, it will bleed the anti-Grit vote away from the Bloc. Also, a lot of Liberal voters sat out the last election, they'll be back to push Bakopanos over the top. She's was the MP for 10+ years and knows the riding well.|
As for the signs, I understand that some of the campaigns (not just the Liberals) held out until the municipal election was over. Nothing to do with the organization.
| ||08 09 29
|While I am surprised to see the lack of Liberal campaign poster so far when I was last there. I don't know if this has changed, but it certainly speaks a lot for its organization. Why? If any Quebec seats could go Liberal easily, it would be this one. Expect the Bloc to be working hard to keep this newly-earned riding in its grip. During the provincial election, a PQ deputy lost this riding after winning it a few years before for the first time. It's quite multi-ethnic and they have federalist leanings (obviously). So it's a coin toss-up because the Bloc won by less than 700 votes.|
| ||08 09 22
||Let's go Expos|
|I was just in the riding yesterday to work on a municipal byelection; and hence, was all over the riding. The lack of Liberal campaign posters absolutely blew me away (honestly, I must have seen no more than a dozen). Mourani had posters everywhere and the NDP and tories had the terrain well-covered as well. |
I truly thought that the Liberals would really be after this one, given the last election. I just don't understand what they're doing.
Now, just because the grits are greatly out-postered doesn't mean they aren't going to win ipso facto, but it certainly speaks to their organization on the ground; which I believe to be crumbling on the island of Montréal.
I conclude that the Bloc will hold in Ahuntsic.
| ||08 09 20
|barring some major change in the quebec poll numbers (and to you polling folks: let's see some more on-island/off-island numbers in some crosstabs!), this one is going to stay with the bloc. this may sound counter-intuitive given that the bloc mp is a nobody, eleni's running again, the 2006 bloc win was basically based on the protest vote and duceppe's deft anti-liberal campaign (ie. a fluke), and that bloc support has dropped significantly quebec-wide. but two important factors should determine the result here: first, liberal support numbers have NOT rebounded on-island - the drop in quebec lpc support is mostly happening off-island, but even on-island, in the two most recent polls i've seen, it's slightly lower than in 2006; second, the ndp and cpc have gained traction on-island with demographics essential to the liberal coalition at a rate greater than their traction among the demographics essential to bloc success. in a nutshell, bloc support has proved much more resilient on-island that off-island, the lpc is not stronger now that it was in 2006, and the support that the bloc will lose to the ndp and cpc ought to be lower than or about equal to that which the lpc will lose to these parties. to put it all a bit more succintly: the liberals have not recovered sufficiently to overcome the federalist vote split that we're going to see here (and in jeanne-le ber and possibly papineau, though trudeau's star power should be enough to force the contest into a two-way race). unfortunately, this leaves ahuntsic with the bloc.|
| ||08 09 18
|Eleni Bakopanos definitely has a chance to win this back for the Liberals as it is a riding like Papineau - the BQ member won it by less than 1,000 votes during the Sponsorship Scandal.|
Since the BQ vote appears to have dropped in Quebec by more than the Liberal vote has, ridings like Ahuntsic and Papineau which only went BQ by small margins in 2006 may go Liberal in 2008.
| ||08 09 15
|Maria Mourani was unknown when she was elected mainly because of a protest vote against the Liberals. Since then, she became known as a specialist on street gangs in Montreal, published a book and made a few high profile appearance on TV, including ‘Tout le monde en parle’ which attracts 1.5M+ people every sunday, and she made a VERY good impression. Sounds like people in Ahuntsic now know much better this dedicated women and will likely vote for her. It will not be a protest vote this time but rather because she's working for a good cause: fighting street gangs. Conservatives could make gains but it will be at the depends of the Liberals who still have the same candidate as last time.|
| ||08 09 15
|Sur l'?le de Montr?al, les nationalistes restent davantage fid?les au Bloc et au PQ que dans le reste du Qu?bec. Mais tout de m?me, le Bloc perdra assur?ment des appuis, ce qui risque de lui faire perdre le si?ge. Les lib?raux resteront plut?t stables ou perdront peut-?tre eux aussi des voix, mais moins que le Bloc. Dans les deux cas, le Bloc est d?favoris|
| ||08 09 13
|I think Ahustic will remain to the Bloc.|
Altough some francophones might switch to Conservatives this election, there won't be enough to let Ahunstic to go back to Liberals.
Plus, we begin to see ethnical votes going to the PQ and the Bloc in this Area. (Ahunstic and Papineau switched to the Bloc in 2006)
Should be a tight race between the Bloc and the Liberals, but as for now, I think it will remain to the Bloc.
| ||08 03 05
|Familiar story. A hitherto safe Grit incumbent becomes Dead Liberal Walking in '04; then the Bloc finishes her off in '06--while losing share!With both Stephane and Justin as neighbours, this is definitely tops on the Montreal Liberal takeback radar; whether the radar'll have to be momentarily disconnected due to adverse polling circumstances remains to be seen. Oh, and in the Mulcair era, I wouldn't laugh the way I once might have at the NDP's share-stealing potential with a decent candidate in place--at least Suaveman was humble enough to offer ‘not enough to win’...|
| ||08 02 24
|NDP is a joke in this place. In this riding, NDP has only the provincial score. It was the situation in 2004 and 2006. Right now is only 13%.|
| ||08 02 22
|The NDP have an excellent candidate in Alexandra Belec here (polyglot, long-time human rights activist, immigration-lawyer -a very talented individual). I would thus expect the NDP to make a big incursion -but unfortunately not enough to win. |
The question is: from whom will Belec siphon more of her newly-gained support? The conventional wisdom is that it will be from the Liberals because of shared federalist convictions; but remember: the NDP sucked way more votes out from the Bloc than the grits in the Outremont byelection.
The Grits and Bloc are going have a war on their hands here.
| ||07 11 01
|With a good campaign, the Liberals may just take this back thanks to a phenomenon that has rarely been seen in Quebec: vote splitting. The Tories and NDP will take votes from both the Liberals and the Bloc, but they'll take more from the Bloc. That could well put the Liberals over the top.|
| ||07 10 10
|A short while ago, I would have called this seat as an easy Liberal takeback - a marginal (and non-traditional) Bloc seat in Montreal, a Liberal leader from Montreal, and the Bloc in decline province-wide; but now, it would appear that the Liberals have taken almost as sharp of a nosedive in Quebec as the Bloc. I still give the edge to the Liberals here, but if their Quebec numbers remain south of 15% (where they've been as of late), the Bloc may be able to hold on here.|
| ||07 07 03
|Despite Stephane Dion’s low approval rating almost everywhere, I’d have to think even if it was like 40-45% in Montreal, 40% in this riding would be a solid win for the LPC. This ones going back to them next election, unless there is some sort of huge surge in nationalism which could lead to the BQ getting re-elected but i doubt it.|
| ||07 04 12
|Eleni Bakopanos should pick this one up again. The large Greek population, plus Liberal increases in the polls and weakening anger over the sponsorship scandal means this riding will be painted red!|
| ||07 04 08
|Prior to the Quebec election and prior to Bloc's freefall in Quebec, I'd have said this riding would stay Bloc. Now, though, there's no reason why the Liberals won't take Ahuntsic back. Lots of immigrants, voted against sovereignty in 1995. Liberal takeback for sure.|
| ||07 04 07
|Trop tôt pour le dire.|
Pourrait cependant retourner dans le giron libéral si les électeurs libéraux qui sont restés chez eux le 23 janvier 2006 ou ont voté conservateur rentraient au bercail. D'autant plus si ce retour au bercail était jumelé à une certaine baisse du Bloc.
| ||07 03 29
|I am not so sure this will go back to the Liberals. Christine St-Pierre in the l'acadie section of the riding won an unusually low majority and the Crémazie section of the riding elected Lisette Lapointe, Jacques parizeau's wife. People seem to like Maria Mourani. This one should go in the too close to call category|
| ||07 03 27
||Dr Bear & Prof Ape|
|This is not natural BQ territory, rather an effect of the sponsorship scandal. Dion's popularity at home (he's in the neighbouring riding) coupled with a discouraged seperatist movement after Monday's provincial vote and an electorate who's all but forgotten about the sponsorship scandal, watch this to quickly return to the Liberals.|
| ||07 03 26
|Maria Mourani's win last time will not likely be repeated for the Bloc. If Eleni Bakopanos runs again, and is not burdened with a disgracefully inept Paul Martinesque national campaign, this one goes back to the Grits.|