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11:37 AM 05/04/2007

Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Audette, Pierre
Ferlatte, Christian-Simon
Bloc Québécois
Laframboise, Mario
Pearce, Scott
Robert, André
New Democratic
Senécal, Alain

Mario Laframboise

2006 Résultats:
Mario Laframboise **
Suzanne Courville
François-Hugues Liberge
Alain Senécal
Claude Sabourin

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 03 08 A.S.
Mirabel almost went ADQ in 2003 for a vivid reason: its mayor was the (star) candidate. As for the federal present day, I can picture APM going Tory as part of a complicated Outaouais/Greater Montreal juncture dynamic--think of it as a seat positioned among Cannon, Fortier, and increasingly Tory Eastern Ontario--rather than as something centred so specifically upon Mirabel's ADQ base (which also happens to be Laframboise's BQ base). So, a CPC gain's definitely a possibility here, more so than in a lot of other Montreal-area seats which felt the ADQ sting--I wouldn't call it a ‘probability’, though...
07 11 06 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
As for this riding, to compare it with the riding that it was during the Mulroney years only goes to show how little is known about it. Mirabel of the 1980's was a dinky little town out in the sticks and the only reason to go there was to catch a plane from the worlds most inconveniently located airport. Today it is a booming suburb that is growing by leaps and bounds (Montreal's answer to, say, Markham). Sadly for the CPC, that's still a demographic they need to crack in Quebec.
07 11 05 C B
In response to Bear and Ape's comments, CPC predictions today are not 'grandiose'. I invite them to visit and take a look at the most recent Quebec polls, although the most recent one seems to have struck within the margin of error. The poll previous to that has the Bloc at 34% and the Conservatives at 30% in Quebec. Now we know that that percentage for the Tories isn't coming from Montreal which means that they are sitting even higher in the rest of Quebec. This riding was a Tory riding back in the Mulroney years and the ADQ did quite well. This is another prime Conservative pick up. Perhaps Bear and Ape should really check their facts before making such statements, as I think they are way off in Quebec again. By the way...Windsor-Tecumseh??? Confused...
07 10 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
An NDP prediction? Now that's amusing! But let's talk about the CPC prediction. C.B. seems to be making all sorts of grandiose CPC predictions across Quebec (none for Windsor-Tecumseh this time?). Some are very valid, while others are just plain optimistic (to put it politely). This riding may appear to be one of the latter but it does deserve some closer scrutiny. Once upon a time the Liberals came very close to yanking it away from the BQ. The Mirabel portion thwarted their victory (as we recall there was even a recount...though we admit, memory is a littly foggy on that point). Mirabel almost went ADQ in 2003 and is exactly the type of place where the CPC will score big. The question is whether or not the parts of the riding along the Ottawa River will swing along with Mirabel. We don't think so, as Lafromboise is reasonably popular. This has not prevented other BQ members from getting turfed in 2006, but we think that the it'd be enough to keep him on top. Keep an eye on this riding though in the next election. It probably will become even more competative then.
07 10 20 C B
This is another riding that should be at the very least too close to call. This is a prime example of the ADQ success in the provincial election and it bodes well for the Tories. Anyone who points to the margin of victory for the Bloc needs to take a look at some of the margins of victory for some of the ridings that have already gone Conservative. Nothing seems to be a given in Quebec anymore in the political arena. Should they maintain their numbers, mark this one blue on election night.
07 06 20 Iba Bourramine
Les derniers sondages, si on peut les croire, d?montre que le NPD et les Conservateurs sont en hausse au Qu?bec, et principalement dans les Laurentides, profitant ainsi d'une chute des Lib?raux et des Blocquistes.
Au Qu?bec :
Cons = 28%
Bloc = 24%
Libs = 20%
NDP = 18%
Verts = 10%
Dans les Laurendites :
Bloc = 32%
Cons = 26%
NPD = 22%
Libs = 12%
Verts = 8%
Dans Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel :
Bloc = 28%
Cons = 28%
NPD = 26%
Libs = 12%
Verts = 6%
Dans Marc-Aur?le-Fortin :
Bloc = 36%
Cons = 24%
NPD = 22%
Libs = 10%
Verts = 8%
Dans Rivi?re-des-Mille-?les :
NPD = 28%
Bloc = 28%
Cons = 22%
Libs = 14%
Verts = 8%
Ce sondage effectu? par Ipsos et par le Groupe Infonet pour certains hebdomadaires r?gionaux en d?but de juin sur plus d'un millier d'?lecteur est assez int?ressant de plus du fait que ces <> du Bloc Qu?b?cois sont devenus et rest?s, au plan provincial des compt? ad?quistes et lib?raux. La chute de l'option souverainiste ne se fait pas seulement sentir qu'? Montr?al, mais dans bien des r?gions du Qu?bec. Et curieusement, certains candidats n?o-d?mocrates montrant leur pr?sence davantage que leurs d?put?s du Bloc, et faisant preuve d'initiative, d?montrent qu'il leurs est possible de faire perc?e, en r?gion.
07 04 06
I would not be too quick to hand this back to M. Laframboise and the Bloc. TCTC.
If you look at the 2000 results, M. laframboise came within a few hundred votes of defeat.
Provinicially, Argenteuil went Liberal, Mirabel went ADQ and Papineau went Liberal, so with a good candidate, this one could go Tory.
the landscape has changed greatly. the old separatist/federalist paradigm seems to be breaking down, and the old coalitions that would rally people of all political stripes around one party or another based on the ‘Question nationale’ seems to be rather unfashionable these days.
07 03 31 td
This has been Bloc since their inception, I like the CPC to make it close but still see it going Bloc.

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