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Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Bernier, Maxime
Bloc Québécois
Côté, André
New Democratic
Poulin, Véronique
Rochette, Nicolas
Roy, René

L'hon. Maxime Bernier

2006 Résultats:
Maxime Bernier
Patrice Moore
Jacques Lussier
Cléo Chartier
Jean-Claude Roy

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 09 11 franktremb
? la derni?re ?lection, le Bloc avait mit le paquet en Beauce la croyant prenable. En 2008, apr?s une semaine de campagne, toujours pas de pencartes du Bloc. Victoire facile de Bernier. Les beaucerons lui donnent une 2e chance, esp?rons qu'il sera digne de cette confiance si il redevient ministre.
08 09 07 Patrick
An easy win for Bernier and the Conservatives in Beauce. Bloc will be represented by former provincial PQ candidate André Côté and NDP's candidate is Véronique Poulin, no Liberal yet!
08 07 09 Stevo
Let's face it, politics just isn't Maxime Bernier's thing, and I am guessing that he will choose not to run in the next election. That may cause the Conservative margin to plummet - however, at 26,000 votes, the Conservatives can afford to have it plummet and they will still win!
08 06 02 T.V.
Even without the vote-getting power of the Bernier name, should he decide to return to the private sector following his flame-out, this is the safest Tory seat in Quebec. As long as they can replace him with an okay candidate, the Beauce will stay comfortably Tory.
08 05 30 Philly D.
So... Bernier's 'ruined'. But not for Beaucerons: when the CBC spoke to people in the riding, voters on the ground and the machine still appreciated him, and some thought he was scammed. Don't try to understand the area, it has nothing to do with the rest of Quebec. If Bernier runs again, there will be little change from last time's results: biggest majority for any candidate in the province. If he doesn't (which makes sense, he has lucrative jobs waiting for him in the private sector) the CPC will win again although their margin will drop, but even then I doubt it would go below 50% unless they bomb.
Apr?s la d?mission de Bernier, la CBC (en anglais) a interrog? l'?lctorat beauceron: plusieurs croient ? un montage. Si Bernier est candidat, c'est encore une fois la plus grosse majorit? au Qu?bec, sinon, victoire PCC r?duite quand m?me. La Beauce a peu ? voir avec le reste du Qu?bec sur ce point...
08 05 27 Patricks
Aside from the recent Bernier resignation, the people of Beauce shown support for him in TV reports the day after. Provincial MP, mayors and other folks in coffee shops and elsewhere still think he is a good guy and good MP for the Beauce.
08 02 10 A.S.
It's too easy to add to the Greek chorus: under Maxime Bernier in Beauce, it's like the Mulroney 80s all over again. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Bernier had won as Quebec's sole CPC representative even if Harper hadn't broken the Quebec ice with his Dec 19/05 campaign speech.
08 01 30 John Johnson
This will be an easy hold for the Conservatives. Bernier is one of their top ministers and maybe could be Stephen Harper's replacement in a few years time.
07 10 01 binriso
I believe Beauce is one only 3 non-Montreal ridings(with Hull-Aylmer and Pontiac) to not elect the BQ. Even Gilles Bernier running as an indpenedent won here despite massive federalist vote splitting during the BQ's best election in 1993. Small c conservative, which could help explain why it went from a Liberal solid win in 1965 to a Social Credit landslide in 1968 despite Trudeaumania(then weirdly back to Liberal in 1972 maybe it was something to do with the candidates both times). Still it seems dead set on the CPC now, with a very strong candidate Maxime Bernier who is popular through his name and his position within the party, being Foreign affairs minister will no doubt propel him to another landslide, maybe not as big as last time since there will no doubt be a number of seperatists that will always vote BQ and there might have been a few strategic votes by other parties towards the CPC to defeat the BQ. But still, this is a safe bet for the CPC for the forseeable future.
07 06 17
Impossible de ne pas prévoir la réélection de Maxime Bernier!
En 2006, il a gagné avec près de 70% des voix et ce compté fut celui de son père du temps de Mulroney et il était très populaire.
Sans compter que Bernier est un pilier des Conservateurs au Québec et que la Beauce a toujours été fédéraliste avec un p'tit côté conservateur.
Victoire des Conservateurs en Beauce, mais avec une majorité moins grande!
07 06 06 binriso
The only real safe seat for the conservatives in Quebec, and by safe i mean theres is no chance that it will fall next election under any circumstances. The other 9 could fall if the Conservatives plummet nationwide but Bernier will be left standing he had almost 70% last time.
07 04 07 Nick J Boragina
a correction/addition to my earlier submission. This is not only the strongest tory riding in Quebec, it is the strongest one outside of alberta! with 67% of the vote this is the 16th strongest riding in the nation for the tories; the first 15 all being in Alberta. You have to go all the way down to #32 to get to another riding that's not in Western Canada, and that would be one of the Ontario ridings the Alliance won in the year 2000. There's an old joke in parts of Montreal about red mailboxes being able to get elected, in this part of Quebec, its the Blue mailboxes that need to keep one eye open.
07 04 03 P.P.
If there were only one conservative left after the next election, i fell Maxime Bernier would be the one.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Even if Conservative numbers sour again in Quebec, I cannot see Maxime Bernier falling. This is naturally one of the more conservative parts of Quebec, but more importantly he is too big a household name to lose here.
07 03 29 Patrick L
A sure conservative win here. With the recent ADQ wins all around the region and in Quebec, Beauce is 95% assured to stick with Bernier. Bloc has no chance to win here and the Liberals have a long way to go.
07 03 27 Nick J Boragina
with the ADQ surge in Quebec, I think it's safe to say that the federal Conservatives will benifit from that, and at minimum hold on to this, their strongest riding in the province.
07 03 25 Angry Ontarian
No matter what CPC Quebec popularity is, Industry Minister Maxime Bernier wins Beauce. The Tories won every poll in the riding last time. The Bernier name is popular here, and this is one of the rare Quebec 'blue' ridings. Being in Cabinet doesn't hurt either.
07 03 24 RF
If this seat doesn't go Conservative, I will be shocked. Maxime Bernier has his father's name behind him, and Beauce is a riding that is francophone, which means the Liberals are incredibly weak here, and it is a riding that is very much federalist. This equation means that the riding will go overwhelmingly Conservative.
Maxime Bernier won with the highest Conservative plurality outside of Alberta, with 68% of the vote. He's a high profile Minister of Industry, and Harper's de facto Quebec Lieutenant, since Lawrence Cannon has done a disappointing job. Clearly is going to go Tory.

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