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11:46 AM 10/10/2008

Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

New Democratic
Bogosta, Christelle
Brassard, Pierre
Marler, David
Bloc Québécois
Ouellet, Christian
Paradis, Denis
Quinlan, Mark

Christian Ouellet

2006 Résultats:
Christian Ouellet
Denis Paradis **
David Marler
Josianne Jetté
Heward Grafftey
Michel Champagne

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 10 Joshua Zuckerman
According to a new poll, Denis Paradis is now behind the BQ. It's odd considering Liberal numbers have gone up since the last poll, but Quebec expert Chantal Hebert predicts the Liberals will not win any new seats in French Quebec, so perhaps the Liberals are out of luck here afterall.
08 10 10 Stéphane Gaudet
Sondage Segma mené du 4 au 8 octobre (marge d'erreur: 4,4%):
BQ 43%
LIB 31%
PCC 16%
Il y a peu de temps, alors que les libéraux étaient dans la cave au Québec, c'est le libéral Denis Paradis qui menait. Maintenant que les libéraux connaissent un regain de vie, Paradis tirerait de l'arrière ? Hmmm, j'ai de gros doutes. Je continue de croire que Paradis est le favori.
08 10 08 Joshua Zuckerman
According to a poll done for this riding a couple weeks ago, Denis Paradis of the Liberals has 33%, the BQ has 29% and the Conservatives have 20%. This is certainly a good sign for Mr. Paradis in his attempt to recapture the riding, but since the margin is close, we may not know who wins until Election Night.
08 10 07 Stéphane Gaudet
La chance commence à tourner pour les libéraux au Québec, tous les sondages les placent maintenant bons deuxièmes devant les conservateurs. Après la bonne performance de Stéphane Dion au débat en français et l'attitude peu rassurante de Harper devant la crise économique appéhendée, le vote fédéraliste rentre au bercail libéral. De plus, Denis Paradis serait en avance selon un sondage local. La division du vote fédéraliste sera moins grande cette fois-ci et ne permettra pas, comme la dernière fois et en 1993, l'élection d'un bloquiste ‘par défaut’ dans ce comté très fédéraliste.
08 10 03 binriso
Ok, If the Liberals dont mess up badly near the end, I think they can actually pull this off. The BQ do need to drop a bit more and the NDP needs to gain a few votes at their expense, and the CPCs do too although I dont see them getting enough to win. 2 polls released just had the Liberals at 24% in Quebec with the BQ at 39-40%, that would make this riding TCTC, but if the federalists rally behind a candidate, I think itll be Paradis, since his brother still holds the seat provincially and Denis has much more name recognition compared to the CPC candidate(and the other CPC candidate whos running as an independent who probably either got screwed out of the nomination or decided to run as an independent anyways). Plus a local poll gave the Liberals a 4 point lead, if it was widely spread across the riding, it might convince people to strategically vote Liberal to stop the BQ(The CPC were 14 points behind). Itll be close either way.
PS: The Green candidate (other than being a TV host) is famous for being kicked in the groin by Pierre Trudeau.
08 10 01 R.O.
This rural riding and the race here got some high profile attention as it was featured on global national nightly news. The race here consists of a 3 way race as the riding is currently held by the separatist bloc quebecois but riding historically has not been much of a bloc riding and was liberal for a number of years and before that pc so considered a federalist riding. It did vote for the bloc once before in 93 but mp passed away and liberals took it in by-election. the race is made weirder but the fact former conservative candidate David Marler is running as an independent well he is unlikely to get many votes him being on the ballot complicates things for the conservatives who remain competitive here.I think with all the federalist vote splitting the bloc unfortuently has the advantage here. but considering how volatile quebec is at the moment is could still go either way in the end.
08 09 27 JanetCanuck
If there is ONE riding where the Liberals have a chance, this is it. This is a riding with a significant Anglo population and a riding where near Sherbrooke where enough nationalists (Francophones and Anglos) will vote as a bloc (no pun intended) to block the Bloc. That said, there is a high hurdle to overcome but with Mr. Merler taking votes from the Conservatives and the NDP and Greens, traditionally the usual recipients of protest votes- the party appointed a candidate instead of allowing him t run again because he - who has ethics! - refused to participate in th Conservatives' game of in and out re the finances
08 09 22 Bernard von Schulmann
There was a 400 person poll released for this riding on Sept 17th. Segma Marketing was the polling firm
Liberals 33%
Bloc 29%
Conservatives 20%
Greens 8%
NDP 6%
The same number of people said they were undecided as said they were voting for the Bloc. There are a lot of undecideds out there to court, enough to push any one of the three over the top.
08 09 12 Paul Tremblay
Normally this riding is sufficiently federalist that it should go to the strongest federalist party.
The problem here is that Denis Paradis is, according to the Liberal Party's website, once again the Liberal candidate here. He has strong name recognition and is personally popular. But the Liberals are unpopular and there is no way that he can win this time.
Add to this the independent candidacy of David Marler (former Conservative candidate in 2006), and the only thing that Paradis will be able to do will be to split the vote again and allow a Bloc win.
08 03 10 A.S.
Grafftey, schmafftey; the fact that he ran for the Progressive Canadians says it all (even if he got the best P-Can result in the country by far). And if the Tories didn't do that well last time, it's because they faced the unique situation of a Liberal rather than Bloc incumbent--had Paradis lost rather than won in '04 and reran in '06, the Grit and CPC results might well have been reversed a la Compton-Stanstead and Shefford. Now, with no sitting Grit MP, the way's a bit clearer for the Tories to craft a grand coalition of Anglo-federalists and soft Bloquistes--well, enough of one, anyway, even if they only eke in a la Lawrence Cannon. Okay, that isn't a positive certainty; but neither, in the present climate, is the idea of Grits being the only viable non-Bloc option around these parts--maybe that's why Denis Paradis is fleeing elsewhere...
07 08 16 binriso
I will go out on a limb and predict a Liberal win here. First of all, if Heward Grafftey does not run again, his 2000 votes will go mostly Liberal over anyone else. Also, the Bloc are generally down in the polls, while the Liberals are usually up a bit in Quebec. The Conservatives did not do overly well here last time either only about 20% or so. Even though Denis Paradis is going to run in Brossard-La-Prarie, I still think the Liberals can pull off a narrow win of ~1000 votes. This will be one to watch. The taint of the Sponsorship scandal is gone too so there will be some who voted BQ who will come back to the Liberals, or go elsewhere both of which hurt the BQ's chances here.
07 04 07 Stéphane Gaudet
Même chose que pour Compton-Stanstead.
Un siège de l'Estrie, donc pas naturellement souverainiste, que le Bloc a remporté chaque fois (1993 et 2006) uniquement à cause de la division du vote fédéraliste.
Si les fédéralistes décidaient de faire bloc derrière un candidat, conservateur ou libéral, c'est ce parti qui remportera le siège. Mais si les fédéralistes divisent une fois de plus leur vote entre PCC et PLC, le Bloc Québécois continuera de remporter la victoire par défaut sur une terre qui n'est pas du tout souverainiste.

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