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|08 10 12
|This riding is now in danger of being lost to the Bloc and might need to be changed to a Bloc prediction.
On CTV news last night, Robert Fife reported that the Conservatives admitted to him that they expect to lose 4 seats in Quebec. This could be one of those 4 seats.
In addition, on Don Newman's 'Politics' show a couple days ago, 2 Quebec analysts (Professor Brooke Jeffrey of Concordia U and a former BQ strategist) predicted this riding could fall to the BQ.
|08 10 11
|Beauport-Limoilou, comme Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, devraient repasser au Bloc, avec de très courtes victoires, très serrées. Ils ont un tissu social assez semblable, avec un bon fond nationaliste. Des conservateurs totalement absents de la région, et un PCC incapable de soutenir ses candidats, sans plateforme régionale.
|08 10 11
|I think Petit is in real trouble. The Conservative party received almost 25% of the vote in Québec last election and most poll have them at between 15-20% now. And the Bloc, their principal rival in most ridings is trending roughly at the same level as 2006. Most polls have them between 40-45% in Quebec and they received 42% of the vote in 2006. This, in and of itself suggests that the Conservatives are likely to lose some seats, and logically the ones that they won by the narrowest margins would be in greatest danger.
Second, the recent SEGMA poll in neighbouring Louis-Hébert suggests that the Conservative support in the Capitale Nationale is slipping. There, in a similar riding, in the same area, The Conservatives won by 200 votes last time and now trail in the polls by a 14 point margin. It indicative of sagging Tory support in the area.
Based on the lower Tory numbers both in Québec generally and in the Capitale Nationale, as well as the evidence that Harvey is struggling to retain his seat, I expect that this is one of the five or six seats the Conservatives will lose in Quebec on Tuesday.
|08 10 10
|There is some talk that Daniel Petit might be in difficulty but as far as I know no one seems really ready to predict his defeat even though he won by a narrow margin in 2006.
Unlike most ridings where the popularity of the incumbent MP is relatively easy to determine, I can't tell if Petit is locally popular or not as I hear contradictory reports regarding how voters view him.
Petit could lose his seat if the current anti-Conservative trend continues, especially if the naysayers are right regarding his local popularity. At this point the riding remains too close to call as far as I'm concerned.
|08 02 13
|This was actually the biggest Bloc upset of 2006; Richard Marceau was deemed a shadow-cabinet star and possible BQ leadership contender--adding insult to injury, he tried provincially for the PQ the following year and landed *third*. Doesn't mean Marceau wouldn't be in contention if he tried here again federally--that is, if he didn't become a generation-younger BQ version of flamed-out NDPers like Nystrom or Waddell. Regardless of whether he's running, all depends where CPC polling goes; and of course, this is the Tories' current Quebec heartland--but if they lose half their Quebec seats, this is likely to be one of them...
|07 06 30
|Daniel Petit a peut-être bien servi ses électeurs mais je ressens une certaine appréhension à son sujet et à ses collègues de la rive-sud. Petit, Boucher, Harvey, Gourde, Bernier et Blaney ont passé leur temps à attaquer leurs adversaires politiques (Bloc, Libéral ou NPD) et les électeurs qui n'ont pas voté pour eux. À mon avis, si le PCC déniche dans Charlesbourg/Haute-Saint-Charles un candidat dans la même tempe des Red Tories (comme Joe Clark), ce candidat pourrait gagner. Autrement, les électeurs de Charlesbourg/Haute-Saint-Charles pourraient conclure que le Parti Conservateur du Canada n'est pas assez progressiste à leur goût.
|07 03 26
|With teh ADQ strength in the Quebec City banlieu, I don't think Daniel Petit will have much trouble winning here.
|07 03 24
|This was a close CPC win last time, but looking at the strength of the ADQ in Quebec City provincially, the relative stability of Conservative polling numbers in Quebec at large, and their polling numbers in Quebec City, this riding will most likely stay Conservative.