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Projet D'Élection Prévision

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Bloc Québécois
Bouchard, Robert
New Democratic
Girard, Stéphane
Maltais, Jean-Guy
Pettersen, Marc
Veilleux, Jean-François

Robert Bouchard

2006 Résultats:
Robert Bouchard **
André Harvey
Alcide Boudreault
Éric Dubois
Jean-Martin Gauthier

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 10 Stéphane Gaudet
Sondage Segma mené du 4 au 8 octobre (marge d'erreur: 4,4%):
BQ 57%
PCC 36%
LIB 5%
Il n'y a plus aucun doute possible, le Bloc conservera ce siège. Aucun autre parti ne semble être de taille pour l'emporter.
08 09 29 Stéphane Gaudet
Un siège que je donnais aux conservateurs ! Le sondage Segma montre plutôt que le député bloquiste sortant serait largement en avance avec 48% des intentions de vote, loin devant le candidat conservateur. Je m'étais donc trompé, victoire bloquiste à prévoir ici.
08 09 29 J.F. Breton
Pas de surprise ici, semble-t-il. Sondage LeQuotidien - Groupe Gesca, du 23 au 27 septembre, marge d'erreur de 4,9%, 19 fois sur 20.
Robert Bouchard, BQ 48,2%
Jean-Guy Maltais, PCC 26,0%
Marc Pettersen, PLC 18,1%
Stéphane Girard, NPD 3,8%
Jean-François Veilleux, VERT 3,8%
08 09 12 Paul Tremblay
The 2006 results were skewed by the presence of Andre Harvey as the Liberal candidate. He is not a candidate this time.
Harvey's popularity masked to some extent Robert Bouchard's own popularity. While the Conservatives will pick up many votes from those who would like the riding to go with the winner, I expect the Bloc vote to increase also, making this one of the few ridings where the Bloc will pick up votes, as some voters who voted for Harvey in 2006 will vote for Bouchard this year.
For the record the Liberals have no chance whatsoever here this time.
I expect a Bloc win by about 2,500 votes.
08 09 08 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
Liberal win...yeah...that's rich! Not even any of the Liberal brass would be so delusional to suggest the Liberals will win anywhere in the Saguenay. Look for a tough battle between the BQ and the CPC. I think the CPC may edge out the BQ as the people of Chicoutimi will want in on the Conservative benefits their neighbours in Jonquiere and Roberval are enjoying.
08 09 08 Pierre
People can see that BQ win's or the PC, but it seems that what you see in the media is the Liberal candidate, may we see another surprise such as Andre Arthur?
08 09 04 david m.
with the collapse of the liberal vote off island, the decreasing fortunes of the bloc, the cpc's candidate (mayor of an area larger than the riding, and encompassing all of it) and especially the absence of andre harvey for the lpc, it's hard to imagine how the conservatives don't take this riding by double digits. the realignment is for real folks.
08 02 15 A.S.
What a flip: an unlikely Saguenay non-Bloc seat a decade ago, it's now the last remaining Bloc seat in the Saguenay. And at this point I'm wondering if even in the absence of Andre Harvey, Chicoutimians will feel sufficiently contrarian as to re-elect the Bloc, anyway...
07 11 14 DAVID
Avec le retrait de la course à l'investiture conservatrice du maire de Saguenay, M. Jean Tremblay, les chances du député bloquiste Robert Bouchard sont décuplées! S'il y a un siège que le Bloc risque de conserver au Saguenay c'est bien ce lui là!
07 10 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
A very realistic gain for the CPC, provided that two things occur. 1) Their poll numbers hold (or increase)in Quebec. 2) Andre Harvey does not run for the Liberals. If Harvey runs, then vote splitting will let the BQ win this. The best bet for both Harvey and the CPC would for him to run on their ticket. He was a PCer int he 80's and again in 97 until most of the PC Quebec MPs defected to the Liberals under Joe Clark. Should he go back to his roots he'd win by a huge margin. As for the Liberals, look to see them fighting for a very distant third with the NDP and Greens (again, assuming Harvey doesn't run on their ticket).
07 10 20 C B
Absolutely no question now that this riding will fall to the Conservatives if their numbers hold in Quebec. The only potential factor is the possibility of Harvey running again for the Liberals. The Liberal numbers are in a free fall currently and I would be shocked if he ran again. The election result from Jonquiere and by-election result from Roberval are strong indicators that Chicoutimi will go Conservative as well.
07 09 20 Matt R
So long as Andre Harvey isn't running (at least not for the liberals) and the Conservatives don't do any major damage to their image in Quebec this one looks like it will turn Conservative blue next time around.
07 08 18 binriso
This ones an interesting race between the CPC and BQ. Andr? Harvey's personal popularity clearly inflated Liberal numbers, but im unsure him not running this time will mean a huge chunk of Liberal votes going CPC. Supposedly, this is in the separatist heartland in Saguenay and the PQ did win pretty much every seat in the area but ill call this TCTC. A slight advantage to the CPC here though.
07 04 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Though the Saguenay region is the heartland of Quebec separatism, the BQ are not safe. This riding surprisingly went PC in '97 and reelected Andre Harvey until '04 when he was narrowly defeated. The CPC was competitive here in '06, getting ~25% of the vote (which is a big deal in this region) and Harvey (who was on the liberal ticket) took ~ 30% of the vote. Now the Grit numbers are more ‘Harvey numbers’ as he is more popular than the party. It would be interesting if he runs again for the Liberals, making it a 3 way race. If he doesn't, look for a great battle between the BQ and the CPC.
07 04 09 Brian Appel
With Conservative fortunes up in Quebec, and Bloc fortunes down, combined with the fact that Andre Harvey is likely not running again, this riding seems a prime target for a Conservative pickup.

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