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Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Bloc Québécois
Blais, Raynald
Gauvreau, Denis
Gray, Darryl
New Democratic
Langlais, Gaston
Leblanc, Julien

Raynald Blais

2006 Résultats:
Raynald Blais **
Gaston Langlais
Mario Lévesque
Sylvie Dauphinais
Bob Eichenberger

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 03 binriso
So the CPC candidate is running for the NDP is he? Well that bodes poorly for the CPC since hell take some votes from them based on people who voted for him and not the party (probably not a whole lot but still). Thisll probably be closer but im gonna say that Raynald Blais will hold, because of a division in the federalist vote(yes the Liberals are relatively strong here and will still win several thousand votes).
08 10 02 J.F. Breton
Selon un sondage Segma Unimarketing-Graffici, le bloquiste Blais recueille 44% des appuis. Le conservateur Darryl Gray obtient 23% des intentions de vote. M. Gray est suivi de près par le libéral, Denis Gauvreau, avec 21%. Gaston Langlais du NPD obtient 7% des appuis et le candidat du Parti vert, Julien Leblanc, 5%. Sondage réalisé du 21 au 23 septembre, la marge d'erreur est de 4,8 % 19 fois sur 20. Réélection du Bloc.
08 09 24 ES
The thing about the Gaspe and Eastern Quebec, is that the federalist-sovereignist vote is a lot more fluid than say Montreal. Just because the ADQ did not do well here, does not mean the Tories will not do well here. Looking at provincial and federal trend, the party that mostly will form the next government will mostly likely win here (to be represented at the govenemernt side); Just as the liberals here under Charest and Bouchard provincially, Chrietien federally in his later terms, and most likely the Tories now. If the Tories are going to pick up seats in Quebec, it would be this one.
08 07 04 WOLVIE14
Mario Dumont and his party did not do well in this region in the 2006 provincial election. The Tories are in disfavor in the latest polls. This will remain Bloc.
07 11 10 binriso
Well this race has gotten a lot more interesting now that ex-PC MP Darryl Gray is running for the CPC next time. Now the person who mentioned(in french) that the CPC will win this even if they lose the next election seems like an odd prediction, that would mean despite higher Quebec support the CPC would have to have a major collapse in Ontario and the Atlantic, since they wont have a major collapse out west(theres the possibility of them to maybe lose a few seats here or there in urban areas, mostly in BC). And the fact that there is PQ representation means nothing is not true, they clearly will have superior organization locally since the PQ/BQ are very closely linked, moreso than any other Federal/Provincial counterpart. Its TCTC but this will be one of the first ten or so ridings that the CPC will pick up in Quebec if they continue to appeal strongly to Quebecers.
07 11 03 A.S.
Maybe the most dramatic moment of Election Eve 2006 came when the early returns for this seat showed a Tory-Bloc dead heat (thanks to its being in part within the Atlantic time zone, G-IdlM reports earlier than other Quebec seats). While it all portended more than it delivered locally and across the province, judging by the last results and overall trends this should still be placed high on the CPC-pickup radar--albeit, given the relative Adequiste weakness hereabouts, more on a Roberval/Lac Saint Jean level than a Quebec/Beauce level...
07 10 01 Phil D.
Je ne suis pas sur que lors de la fereture des bureaux dans la plupart du Québec au scrutin dernier que les conservateurs menaient, si ma mémoire est bonne, il me semble plutot que le résultat était alors 4400-4200 pour le Bloc (selon le CBC). En tout cas, on ne connaissait que le vote des Iles-de-la-Madeleine, et si le candidat Conservateur venait de la cela aurait pu faire une distortion, car les Iles sont isolées.
Si oui, les conservateurs peuvent espérer reprendre ce vote et manger dans le vote Liberal qui reste... car le candidat du PCC est l'ancien député sous Mulroney, Darryl R. Gray. Il a relativement bien résisté en 1993 avec 21%, et le comté est plus fédéraliste que l'autre en Gaspésie, avec Bonaventure, et a même une forte tendance conservatrice (gain dès 1957 plutot que 1958 et 30%+ en 1979). Si ceci ne suffisait pas, le vote du NPD augmentera au dépens du Bloc.
Si les Conservateurs ne gagnent pas ici, ils peuvent oublier une majorité, n'auront probablement pas beaucoup plus avancé au Québec et pourraient même perdre. Des péquistes au provincial ne signifient plus rien, les Conservatuers ayant fait un balayage dans Roberval, région tout aussi périphérique. Un instant... gain des Conservateurs même lors d'une défaite générale, variant entre 1500 et 7000.
07 09 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
In light of the recent CPC win in Roberval and close race in St Hyathent-Bagot, we are going to reiterate our earlier post that says the CPC may be competetive in many more rural Quebec ridings than what is being reflected in the current predictions. In Gaspesie the BQ beat out the CPC by only 3,300 votes. If for any reason the BQ incumbent doesn't run again this will certainly be a CPC pick up under current political climes. If he does run again, it will still be a much closer race. May be humbly suggest a reconsideration of the current BQ prediction?
07 09 19 Nick J Boragina
I think we all remember how the Tories were leading here when the blackout ended in Quebec and Ontario. I think they can translate that into a win this time around. Here’s why
Unless something changes between now and the election – and it could, I’m going to have to place this one in the Conservative column based on Math. I had quite a row with other predictors in the last federal election, when I predicted 10 Tories from Quebec, based on math. They said I was crazy, but on Election day, I was smack on the money. Now I’m calling ridings like this one for the Tories due to the same mathematical equations I used last time. Remember that this is a ‘rural’ riding, and the ADQ recently did very well here. Even with a slight swing from the Bloc to the Tories (in all three recent by-elections the Tories numbers with relation to the Bloc numbers were far up). The math tells me that based on swing forecasting, it would take a 16 point gap (the by-election gap was 4.6) in St.Hyacinthe to make this riding a toss up.
07 04 11 P.P.
Les comtés de Gaspé et des Iles-de-la Madeleine ont réélus leur députés péquistes. Bonaventure a réélu son député libéral. L'ADQ n'a pas fait de percée dans cette région. Le Bloc devrait conserver la circonsription
07 04 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
The CPC could be viewed as competitive in this riding, having garnished ~32% of the vote in '06 to the BQ's ~43% of the vote. If the CPC becomes more competitive in rural Quebec, this could swing. We foresee a tight race in such a scenario.

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