Profil de circonscription
| ||Bloc Québécois|
| ||New Democratic|
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| ||08 10 10
|Pierre Ducasse might be a ‘star candidate’ in the eyes of NDP activists but the typical voter doesn't know or care about that.|
This is a safe Liberal seat and while recent province-wide polls show a strong lead for the Bloc over the Liberals, the difference between the two parties is not significantly different from what happened on election night in 2006.
I therefore expect that the (in)famous Liberal ‘ballot box bonus’ will result in a Liberal win here.
| ||08 10 10
||J. Smith |
|Tel que mentioné dans l'édition d'aujourd'hui du Devoir, l'Alliance de la fonction publique du Canada, le syndicat représentant les employés de l'État, très nombreux ici dans Hull-Aylmer, a dévoilé hier ses recommandations de vote dans la grande région d'Ottawa-Gatineau. Sur un total de neuf circonscriptions participantes, l'AFPC recommande l'élection de cinq candidats néo-démocrates, dont Pierre Ducasse dans Hull-Aylmer. Le syndicat prend le pari de la nouveauté en suggérant d'écarter le libéral et d'appuyer M. Ducasse, du NPD. Le support de l'AFPC met en évidence l'engagement continuel de M. Ducasse et son équipe. L'AFPC explique elle-même son choix par la bonne figure que fit M. Ducasse lors de la course au leadership du NPD, contre Jack Layton. M. Ducasse est effectivement un leader de longue date du NPD au Québec, et un choix fiable qui représentera de manière attentive et efficace les résidents de Hull-Aylmer.|
| ||08 10 10
|NDP candidate Pierre Ducasse was endorsed by PSAC (Public Service Alliance of Canada) today. This could pull some votes away from the Liberals, but I still think the Liberals will hang on here.|
| ||08 10 08
|Vraiment trop serré, car le Bloc pourrait gagner tout comme les Libéraux.|
Je ne crois pas que le NPD sera de la course car il faut dire que Ducasse est peu connu ici, cependant il va falloir surveiller le candidat conservateur qui pourrait peut-être causer une surprise à cause du vote dans le secteur Aylmer qui est peu propice au Bloc et qui a été relativement élévé (25-35%) pour le PC à la dernière élection.
| ||08 10 08
|I think this riding is likely to stay Liberal for a couple reasons:|
1. A couple of weeks ago when the Liberals were doing badly, they were still projected by The Strategic Counsel poll to hold this riding and since that time the Liberal vote has now gone up.
2. Democratic Space's mathematical statistical projection has this leaning Liberal.
| ||08 10 08
|Pierre Ducasse isn't a star candidate, as his numbers in Manicouagan in 2004 and 2006 prove. [At a guess, I'd say that more Manitobans than Quebecois have heard of him, at least percentage-wise.] On the other hand, Hull-Aylmer is hardly a typical Quebec riding, and the Outremont by-election did get Quebecois thinking outside the box for a bit. |
I find myself wondering how many of the 6000 or so voters that the Bloc picked up between 2000 and 2004 (and who stayed with the Bloc in 2006) actually believe in separatism, or were simply protesting against (a) that scandal ([wink] what was it called again?), and/or (b) Paul Martin's brand of blue liberalism. Separatism isn't so hot in the national capital region, so I favour the protest vote theory.
So we have to ask: are these people still angry? and, if so, might they find the NDP a better place to park their protest votes? It might be the case that the winner on election day will be the candidate who bled fewer votes to the NDP.
| ||08 10 08
|I don't like it, but the Bloc will win this riding - held for 100 years by the Liberals. Liberal fortunes may be rising slightly in the rest of Canada but they are still tanking in Quebec (except for Montreal), and Proulx is a non-descript MP who has always relied on the strong Liberal brand in this riding, not personal support, for his election wins. The NDP's Ducasse is by far the strongest federalist opponent Proulx has ever faced, however the weakened but still-strong Liberal brand and Proulx's long incumbency factor makes it almost impossible for Ducasse to sway enough Liberals to actually win the riding. The NDP will, however, easily inherit enough Liberal votes to allow the Bloc, who lost by less than 2000 last time, to sneak up the middle. The only way the Bloc loses is if enough federalists hold their noses and vote strategically for the Liberals. It worked last time for Proulx, but with a viable federalist option in Ducasse this time I don't think enough federalists have the stomach to again vote again for a weak Liberal candidate. If Ducasse were running for the Liberals, he'd win in a landslide, but splitting the federalist vote between a strong NDP candidate and a weak Liberal one, in this liberal bastion, makes the Bloc a winner.|
| ||08 09 29
|Il faut, me semble-t-il, lire la situation dans ce comté à la lumière de la situation dans Gatineau. Le seul moyen pour Ducasse du NPD de remporter la mise serait qu'il y ait un mouvement d'entraînement du NPD via Gatineau. Or, un sondage Segma démontre une forte division du vote fédéraliste dans Gatineau. Je mise donc sur une victoire libérale.|
| ||08 09 29
|Même raison que pour Gatineau. Les libéraux vont perdre des votes en faveur du NPD et la division entre conservateurs libéraux et NPD va favorisé le Bloc.|
| ||08 09 26
|If the poll results just released by the Globe and Mail are any indication, this is the only ‘swing’ riding in the whole country the Liberals could pick up.|
So while I think it will be an uphill battle, this is one close fouth riding where the Liberals could come out on top.
| ||08 09 16
|This seat has been Lib for more than 100 years. many federal employees do not consider the NDP to be a viable alternative/ opposition to the Libs and Cons. If they don't want the conservatives and don't like Dion's liberals, a lot may stay home, or hold their noses and vote Liberal anyway. Still, I expect to see a big increase in NDP support. maybe next election the locals WILL think of the NDP as an alternative. |
| ||08 09 11
||Nick J Boragina|
|Mathematically, this riding will be a race between the Liberals and the NDP. Remember that in the last election the NDP did not do very well in the province, but this time around they have an MP from Quebec and they are polling between 15%-20%. This is certainly enough to push the party over the edge in ridings like this, where the NDP has always historically been a strong 3rd or 4th placed finish. The NDP will likely shock everyone when they take this riding, as many wont expect it, but the math says it will be so.|
| ||08 09 07
|The NPD launched their national campaign here in Hull. They seem to be seriously targeting this riding (as well as next door Gatineau with the former Liberal MP as the NDP candidate). Layton delivered his speech entirely in French before giving the English version.|
This is a traditional Liberal riding but I would say it is at least competitive, so TCTC at this point.
| ||08 03 01
||Pierre from Québec|
|I don't think Pierre Ducasse has the strength to win here, although he is going to increase the NPD share vote by more than 50%. The Liberal incumbent MP will be reelected without great difficulty. |
| ||07 11 23
|Ce sera une course serrées mais Proulx perdera beaucoup de support comme l'ensemble des libéraux au Québec. Le bloc sera aussi en recul et Ducasse risque de se faufiler. Avec un niveau d'appui élevé au QUébec, le NPD devra gagner certains sièges et Hull-Aylmer est définitivement en tête de liste.|
| ||07 09 15
|Perhaps it is a bit early to be using a prediction of a different race to determine the result of this one, but the pending NDP breakthrough in Outremont will surely open the floodgates for increasing NDP competitiveness in Quebec, and Hull-Aylmer will almost certainly be the second seat (after Outremont) to fall.|
| ||07 09 12
||Nick J Boragina|
|Ducasse running here might have an impact on things. How much of an impact remains to be seen. What we do know is that this riding is not very separatist, and even if all the separatists get behind the bloc, federalists would rather coalesce behind a candidate they don’t like just to see the Bloc get defeated. It comes down to who that federalist candidate will be. If Ducasse can sell the point that this candidate should be him, then he could win. I don’t think he can make the sale, however, and foresee the Liberals winning here again. After all, Hull has voted Liberal federally since 1887 without a break. 120 year old trends are hard to break.|
| ||07 06 07
|Im a little bit more worried now that Ducasse has the NDP nomination here since he is their highest profile candidate other than Muclair which could split up some of the centre-left federalist vote. Also the greens should increase their vote which could have an impact. Provincially the area went strongly Liberal of course but a BQ win is not impossible here due to vote splitting or low turnout sadly. However the Liberals are 29-0 here, yep they?ve never lost not once since the riding was created in 1917. The only obstacle was Rocheleau crossing the floor to the BQ, but he got destroyed in 1993. As of now i predict a sizeable Liberal victory of at least 5000 votes. This riding will probably have the most split up vote in Quebec and the winner might barely go above 30% like 06.|
| ||07 05 14
|I don't know what CROP poll R.D. is referring to, but here is a collection of several different polls from Ipsos-Reid, Angus Reid, Decima Research, Léger Marketing, Strategic Counsel, and SES Research:|
Not one of these 20+ polls places the NDP at 15% in Québec, and most polls don't even put the NDP at 15% nationally. Even if an individual poll found 15% of Québec voters supported the NDP, the margin of error would be at the very least 3%, and what the poll is actually saying, with 95% certainty, is that NDP support in Québec is between 12-18%. Since all other polls place the NDP below 15%, the mentioned CROP poll is likely one of those ‘one in twenty polls’ that is inaccurate. Actual NDP support is probably closer to 10% in Québec.
If the NDP is in fact gaining support, as R.D. says, at the Bloc’s expense, then they will still lose to the Liberals by a significant margin. Considering that the Liberals are polling above 2006 levels in Québec, an NDP win in Hull is absolutely absurd.
Regardless, last election the NDP came fourth and didn’t even earn half as many votes as the Liberals in Hull-Aylmer, and that was one of the worst elections for the Liberals in Québec ever. Recent polls are also placing the Liberals at a higher level of support than in the previous election, with the Bloc at lower levels of support. The Bloc are not going to win this riding unless they recover in the polls and Liberal support collapses well below 2006 levels. This riding has too many federal government workers to vote Conservative. The NDP prediction is just ridiculous, wishful thinking, based on a poor understanding of statistics and it detracts from the credibility of other NDP predictions on this site. The Liberals will hold Hull-Aylmer no problem.
| ||07 05 07
|A recent CROP poll shows the BQ has fallen to record low support in Quebec, 28%, with the Conservatives trailing closely at 26%, the Liberals at 22% and the NDP at 15%. While still in fourth, the NDP has shown the most gain of any of the four federalist parties, doubling its vote from the 2006 election. If these numbers hold out, the NDP could pick up a significant swing from the Bloc to surpass weak Liberal margins in Outremont and Hull-Aylmer, which gave the NDP its #1 and #3 best results 2006. The NDP's #2 result was Laurier--Sainte-Marie, which appears solidly BQ, although of course things could change there too if Gilles Duceppe leaves to seek the provincial PQ leadership.|
While Outremont looks like it might be the NDP's best bet, Pierre Ducasse is a strong candidate who has done much to try to build the party in Quebec. Further, with Paul Dewar holding Ottawa Centre for the NDP just across the river, there is a significant possibility for spillover effects if the two campaigns can coordinate publicity and GOTV efforts in the Ottawa-Hull region.
| ||07 05 05
|Claude G. prédit une victoire du Bloc dans Hull/Aylmer? J'appelle ça du ‘wishful thinking’. Le comté de Hull/Aylmer a toujours été un bastion libéral depuis plus de les années 1910, sauf entre 1990 et 1993 lorsque Gilles Rocheleau a fait défection du PLC au Bloc sous la direction de Lucien Bouchard. Je ne vois vraiment pas pourquoi il y aurait division du vote fédéraliste dans ce comté. Depuis 1999, Marcel Proulx, tout comme Marcel Massé, s'est levé pour défendre avec acharnement les intérêts de ses électeurs avec les gouvernement Chrétien et Martin. Donc, avec la réélection de Roch Cholette du PLQ au provincial et le fait que l'Outaouais a une tradition libérale au fédéral et au provincial, Marcel Proulx sera réélu très facilement avec près de 55% des votes.|
| ||07 05 02
|If Hull-Aylmer is ‘only slightly less safe’, then why was the Liberal vote 32.67% here (only 3 1.3 points above the Bloc!) vs the 65.55% in Mount Royal? At this point, if it's safe, blame fragmented opposition--and for that matter, the now-Mulclairized NPD might indeed make Pierre Ducasse into the most likely giant-killer, after all. (Bizarre as that may sound--and being bizarre may just as well ensure Liberal survival. Or not.)|
| ||07 04 23
|Ça ne va pas très bien pour le PLC au Québec présentement et c'est tout le contraire pour le PCC qui, selon un sondage de Léger Marketing, talonnerait le BQ dans les intentions de vote.|
Je crois que cela va se traduire par un mouvement des voix du PLC vers le PC, tout particulièrement dans le Québec francophone. La majorité de 2000 voix de M. Proulx en 2006 pourrait bien fondre en faveur du PC, ce qui donnerait le comté de Hull-Aylmer au BQ par la division de vote fédéraliste.
| ||07 04 12
|Hull-Aylmer is only slightly less safe as a Liberal riding than Mount Royal is. The Liberals may not win it by Mount Royal-esque numbers, but they always win it. In fact, this riding has been Liberal longer than Mount Royal - since 1917 - with one exception when Gilles Rocheleau won the riding in 1988, joined the Bloc Quebecois in 1990, and got soundly beaten by the Liberal candidate, Marcel Masse, in 1993. So, if it weren't for that 3 year blip, this riding has been Liberal for 90 years and has elected a Liberal in every single election since its creation.|
| ||07 03 25
| The NDP is running Pierre Ducasse - the closest thing they have to a star in Quebec. He'll have a better shot here than in Manicouagan - but still a long shot. Pity.|